According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic PA66 market remained firm at a high level on October 8, and the spot prices of various brands were temporarily stable. At present, the shortage of raw material adiponitrile has not improved. Ports around the world have responded to the slow arrival of imported goods. PA66 enterprises generally lack materials and reduce their load. The double push up of supply side and cost side raises the spot price. In terms of demand, downstream customers are cautious in purchasing at high prices. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere on the site. It is expected that PA66 may operate at a high level in the near future.

In September, affected by the dual control policy of energy consumption, the domestic supply of dichloromethane was tight and the market price rose sharply. In the middle of the month, the market speculation mentality was strong, and dichloromethane soared to the highest offer of 8000 yuan / ton. Later, with the follow-up of downstream demand, the market speculation mentality ended, and the market price of dichloromethane gradually returned to 5000 ~ 6000 yuan / ton. Overall, due to tight supply, the price at the end of the month still increased by about 1000 yuan / ton compared with the end of the month.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong was 4192 yuan / ton at the beginning of September and 5177 yuan / ton at the end of September; During the month, the price high point was 6725 yuan / ton on the 20th and the price low point was 4055 yuan / ton on the 10th. Overall, the end of the month increased by 23.49% compared with the beginning of the month.

The price of raw methanol rose and the cost side was supported. According to the business agency, as of September 30, the price of methanol was 3605 yuan / ton, up 37.86% from 2615 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; The mainstream ex factory price of liquid chlorine of tank car in Shandong is about 1600 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: dichloromethane analysts of business society believe that the “double control” policy will continue to be implemented in the short term, the start-up of methane chloride plant will remain low, and the supply of dichloromethane is relatively tight, but affected by weak demand, the profit giving sales price of enterprises will return to some extent; Overall, the price of dichloromethane will remain above 5000 yuan / ton in the short term.

Product Name: propylene glycol

Latest price (September 30): 21100 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business agency, on September 30, the overall domestic propylene glycol market was stable and consolidated. The average ex factory price of propylene glycol was 21100 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that of the previous working day. On the 30th, the last working day before the national day, the domestic propylene glycol field maintained a stable consolidation operation as a whole, the downstream pre festival goods preparation was basically completed, and the spot supply in the field remained tight.

Future forecast: it is reported that some propylene glycol units in Shandong have maintenance plans after the festival, and the supply of propylene glycol after the festival will continue to be tight. It is expected that the domestic propylene glycol market will mainly operate strongly after the festival, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the follow-up of downstream demand.

According to the monitoring of business society, the price index of domestic rare earth market rose slightly, the price of domestic praseodymium neodymium rare earth market rose and fell, and the price of heavy rare earth market rose slightly. According to the rare earth sector index of business society, the rare earth index was 600 points on September 29, the same as yesterday, down 40.00% from the highest point of 1000 points in the cycle (December 6, 2011), It is 121.40% higher than the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

It can be clearly seen from the rare earth index chart that the recent domestic rare earth price has increased steadily and slightly, the recent mainstream commodity price in the rare earth market is mainly stable, and the rare earth market has increased slightly. In terms of products:

It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that the price trend of domestic metal neodymium, metal praseodymium, praseodymium oxide and neodymium oxide increased, and the price of praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide decreased slightly. By the end of the month, the price of neodymium oxide in domestic rare earth was 627500 yuan / ton, with a monthly price increase of 3.04%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 640000 yuan / ton, up 2.4% in September; The price of metal praseodymium was 860000 yuan / ton, and the monthly price trend increased by 5.52%; The price of neodymium was 775000 yuan / ton, with a monthly price increase of 1.31%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 600000 yuan / ton, down 0.58%; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 738500 yuan / ton, with a price decline of 1.2%. The price of light rare earths in China rose. On the whole, the market was stable.

The trend of some products in the domestic rare earth market is rising, the supply and demand structure has little change, and the demand for high-end magnetic materials is normal. Recently, China’s rare earth quota on the supply side may be steadily increased, and the supply rigidity is optimized. In addition, with the implementation of the new energy efficiency standards, the proportion of frequency conversion air conditioners for domestic household appliances, the penetration rate of Nd-Fe-B continues to increase, and the demand side is relatively normal. The sales of new energy vehicles are normal, the demand for rare earth is at a high level, and the price of rare earth oxide is rising. When there is no lock order, the rare earth metal factory mainly focuses on waiting and watching, and the procurement is more cautious. At the same time, the national environmental protection inspector is still continuing, the peak season of traditional demand for rare earth is coming, superimposing the launch expectations of relevant policies in the rare earth industry, supply and demand are expected to resonate with policies, and rare earth prices may rise steadily. According to statistics, the sales of new energy vehicles are OK. According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, China Automobile Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as “China Automobile Association”) released the latest production and sales data. In August, 307000 new energy passenger vehicles were sold in China, with a month on month increase of 19.8% and a year-on-year increase of 193%. The cumulative sales from January to August were 1.704 million. Under the influence of “double control”, the supply in some regions has declined, the recent downstream demand is OK, and some prices in the light rare earth market have increased slightly.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the price trend of dysprosium Series in China has increased. By the end of the month, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.705 million yuan / ton, and the monthly price trend has increased by 4.84%; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.64 million yuan / ton, the price trend increased by 3.12%, the price of metal dysprosium was 3.445 million yuan / ton, and the monthly price increased by 3.77%. The price of domestic terbium series continued to rise, the price of domestic terbium oxide was 8.825 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal terbium was 11.1 million yuan / ton. The transaction in the domestic rare earth market is normal, and the leading magnetic material factory purchases actively, which makes the domestic heavy rare earth market price rise slightly. In the early stage, affected by the rainy season and epidemic situation, the rare earth supply in Myanmar has been disturbed. Recently, the war in Myanmar has started again, and the supply disturbance has been further aggravated. The global rare earth supply is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas second only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on the products in the domestic heavy rare earth market. In addition, due to the impact of power rationing in some regions, the domestic supply is tight, and the production reduction risk of separation enterprises using Myanmar mines in the south is increased. Affected by this, the domestic heavy rare earth market price continues to rise.

National policy support. In early July, Vice Minister Wang Jiangping of the Ministry of industry and information technology pointed out that the regulations on the administration of rare earth will be introduced as soon as possible. We expect that the regulations will be introduced with a high probability within this year, and national legislation will regulate the high-quality development of the rare earth industry. Industry insiders believe that this reflects the strengthening of government control over the rare earth industry, which is conducive to the healthy development of the industry. Since 2021, the accelerated promulgation of the regulations on the administration of rare earth will, on the one hand, make the industry have laws to abide by and promote the rare earth industry chain to embark on the road of virtuous circle development; On the other hand, it reflects China’s determination to strictly control the supply order of rare earth and support the price of rare earth as an important strategic resource. The overall demand for rare earth products is OK, the downstream demand is normal in the near future, and the price of domestic rare earth market is OK.

With the sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth, the demand continues. In addition, the domestic rare earth supply starts normally. Recently, the on-site transactions have increased and the goods are actively prepared. The peak season of traditional demand for rare earth is coming. Chen Ling, an analyst of business society, predicts that there is room for the market price of rare earth in the later stage.

According to the commodity index system of business society, the natural rubber commodity index on September 30 was 39.10, up 0.87 points from yesterday, down 60.90% from the highest point of 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 43.33% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Figure 2: mainstream price trend of natural rubber in September 2021

Figure 3: Weekly K-line chart of natural rubber mainstream price in September 2021

According to the data monitoring of business agency, in September 2021, the price of domestic natural rubber continued to fluctuate and rise. On the 1st, the mainstream price was about 12637.5 yuan / ton, and on the 30th, the mainstream price was about 13815 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 4.33%.

From the perspective of new rubber output: rainfall in Southeast Asia, especially in Thailand, according to Thai media reports on September 29, typhoon “electric bus” has caused the flood disaster once in many years in 27 provinces of Thailand after landing in Thailand on September 23-27, and the price of local raw rubber has increased; In China, the rise of latex market continues to increase the pressure on rubber processing plants in natural rubber producing areas.

In terms of demand, in terms of tires, foreign epidemic situation, rising freight rates, export difficulties, soaring raw material prices, chip shortage, decline in automobile sales and other factors lead to rising costs, difficulties in domestic and foreign sales and high pressure on finished product inventory, resulting in tire enterprises controlling output, continuous decline in operating rate, and naturally affected raw material procurement demand; Affected by cost pressure, many tire enterprises have issued tire price increase notices. In terms of automobiles, according to foreign media reports, according to the latest data of autoforecast solutions (hereinafter referred to as AFS), as of September 26, due to the shortage of chips, the cumulative production reduction in the global automobile market had reached 8.934 million, an increase of about 576000 over the previous week. Among them, the cumulative production reduction in China’s automobile market was 1.814 million, accounting for 20.3% of the total production reduction. AFS predicts that the loss of global automobile production may exceed 10 million this year.

In terms of inventory, the inventory of natural rubber in the previous period was 243281 tons (+ 4110 tons) as of September 30, the quantity of futures warehouse receipts was 201700 tons (+ 1900 tons), and the inventory for domestic delivery increased; Energy Inventory in the previous period: 33795 tons (+ 324 tons) of No. 20 glue and 25796 tons (+ 1128 tons) of futures warehouse receipts. In Qingdao, the social inventory of natural rubber continues to be at a new low, and the trend remains unchanged. The amount of rubber delayed to port in August is not prominent at present.

In terms of import and export: Tires: affected by the global epidemic and the continuous rise of freight, the problem of shipping will continue to affect China’s tire export. The Middle East, America and Europe are the regions where domestic tires are intensively exported. The continuous rise of shipping charges has increased the export pressure of domestic tire enterprises; The increase in freight rates and the severe delay in the arrival of natural rubber in Hong Kong can be seen from the data of exports from Thailand to China: the data show that Thailand exported a total of 2.158 million tons of natural rubber (excluding composite rubber) in the first August, a year-on-year increase of 27%; In the first August, the total export of natural rubber and mixed rubber was 2.975 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4%; A total of 1.56 million tons were exported to China, a year-on-year decrease of 12%. Rubber: according to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on September 7, China imported 529000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in August 2021, down 24.3% from 699000 tons in the same period in 2020. From January to August 2021, China imported 4.348 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), down 3.5% from 4.508 million tons in the same period in 2020.

Figure 4: tire enterprises intensively issue price increase notices

Hot spots in the industry: affected by the increasing tire manufacturing costs caused by the continuous rise of raw material prices, the sharp rise of freight and the decline of enterprise production capacity caused by power and production restrictions, many tire enterprises intensively issued tire price increase notices. For example, the price of all steel and semi steel of Linglong tire will be increased by 3% – 5% from October 1; From October 11, the price of all brands of commercial vehicle tires will be increased by 2%; Since October, the prices of all brand products of Zhengdao tire have increased by 3% – 5%; The price of all products of the whole brand of East China tire has increased by 3% – 5% since October; Since October 10, the sales price of Shandong Yongsheng rubber to the company’s tbr products has risen by 3% – 5%. The following figure shows the price increase notice of several enterprises

Figure 5: annual comparison of domestic mainstream trend of natural rubber from 2019 to 2021

In the future, the situation of “golden nine and silver ten” in 2021 is special. The policy of “double control” is heating up, the impact of production and power restriction, the sharp rise of petrochemical raw materials and the comprehensive impact of many factors on fundamentals. The typhoon in Thailand leads to floods and capital speculation, with a large rise in a single day, and the market is frequent and prominent. It is expected that in the future, during the National Day holiday, the manufacturers will have a holiday, and the operating rate will decline. After preparing goods before the festival, the procurement demand will weaken, and the trend is weak during this period; After the national day, if the extreme weather in Thailand continues, the possibility of Tianjiao’s extremely short-term strength exists; On the whole, the supply and demand fundamentals of natural rubber have not changed much, and the imported rubber delayed to Hong Kong in August will also be concentrated in Hong Kong in October. Under the circumstances of strict policy requirements and no significant improvement in automobile consumption, it is difficult for tire enterprises to have obvious signs of recovery. In addition to the excessive market reaction of capital to sudden news, there is a great possibility of weak natural rubber shock in the middle and late part of next month; In the medium term, the annual situation is relatively special. The power restriction policy and depressed automobile sales will lead to the low operating rate of tire enterprises, Limited procurement demand, and the possibility of weak natural rubber. It will be discussed separately when cutting is stopped in China.