Domestic price trend:

From the trend chart of p-xylene, it can be seen that the price of p-xylene remained stable in May. By the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 6400 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the month. The price trend of domestic PX market was stable in may.

In May, the domestic supply of p-xylene was normal, and the domestic PX operating rate was more than 60%. The 600000 ton unit of Sinopec Hongrun Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was in stable operation, the Yangzi Petrochemical Unit was in stable operation, the Pengzhou petrochemical unit was in stable operation, the Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit was in normal operation, the Jinling Petrochemical Unit was in stable operation, the Qingdao Lidong unit was in full load operation, and the Qilu Petrochemical Unit was in stable operation, The start-up of Urumqi petrochemical plant is about 50%, and the domestic supply of p-xylene is general. However, the start-up of overseas plants is general, and the domestic price of p-xylene remains high. Recently, the international crude oil price was above US $65 / barrel, and the trend of PX external price remained volatile. As of the 27th, the closing prices in Asia were US $827-829 / T FOB South Korea and US $845-847 / T CFR China. Recently, the operation rate of PX unit in Asia was normal. As a whole, the operation rate of p-toluene unit in Asia was less than 60%, and the supply of PX in Asia was general, PX external closing price remained high, affected by the external price, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable.

International crude oil prices continued to rise in May. Although the epidemic situation is still severe, the death toll in India has declined in recent days, further enhancing the expectation of oil demand recovery. The market generally believes that even if Iran may restart its crude oil export in the future, which will bring some risks to global supply, with the acceleration of vaccination process, global demand will continue to increase, which will not affect the oil price to maintain an upward trend. Goldman Sachs expects OPEC + and its allies to stop increasing production for two months in the second half of 2021 to offset the increase in Iranian output. According to the statement of Goldman Sachs, we can understand that the future growth is still certain, and the risk of increasing fuel supply in the future may be suppressed based on the OPEC + production control policy. As of May 27, the settlement price of the main contract in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market was US $66.85/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract in the Brent crude oil futures market was US $69.46/barrel. The sharp rise of crude oil price in May is good for domestic petrochemical products, and the price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable.

In May, the price trend of downstream PTA market declined slightly. As of the 28th, the average price of PTA market was 4650-4750 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 1.72% in May. In the middle of May, with the restart of early maintenance equipment, PTA supply showed an upward trend, and the price trend in the market fell. As of May 27, the operating rate was around 83%, with a month on month increase of about 5%, and the price continued to decline slightly. In terms of demand, the downstream polyester market is flat. The polyester production and sales of mainstream factories are concentrated in 30% – 60%, and some better manufacturers can do flat. In terms of inventory, the overall inventory of polyester market is concentrated in 12-25 days, of which POY inventory is 9-21 days, FDY inventory is about 12-16 days, and DTY inventory is about 15-28 days. The price of downstream textile industry was mainly stable, PTA price fell slightly in May, but the overall demand of downstream was poor, and the price trend of p-xylene market was temporarily stable.

PX analyst Chen Ling believes that there is a certain positive support for the current crude oil cost, and the short-term crude oil price will maintain an upward trend, but the performance of downstream polyester is not warm, and the PTA new device is expected to be put into production, and the textile industry is in the off-season of sales, and it is expected that the market price of p-xylene will rise slightly in the later period boosted by crude oil.

According to the commodity index system of business community, the natural rubber commodity index on May 28 was 38.88, down 0.12 points from yesterday, down 61.12% from the highest point of 100.00 points in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 42.52% from the lowest point of 27.28 points on April 2, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

Figure 2: weekly trend of natural rubber mainstream price from May 24 to 28, 2021

Data monitoring shows that during the week of May 24-28, 2021, the overall fluctuation range of natural rubber domestic all latex market is very small: the mainstream price on Monday (24) is 13125 yuan / ton, and the main price on Friday (28) is 13112.5 yuan / ton. Among them, the highest price of this week is 13200 yuan / ton on Wednesday (26), and the lowest price is 13112.5 yuan / ton on Friday (28), with the maximum amplitude of only 0.66%. According to the analysis, the market around 13000 yuan / ton in the middle of this month was actively buying, which pushed the natural rubber market into a stable period.

From the perspective of new rubber output, at present, the main natural rubber producing areas in China have normal cutting, and the supply pressure is increasing. Globally, ANRPC’s latest report shows that global natural rubber production is expected to increase by 22.5% to 903000 tons in April 2021. Among them, Thailand increased by 26.5%, Indonesia by 2.8%, Vietnam by 100% and Malaysia by 9.8%. Global consumption of natural rubber is expected to increase by 15.1% to 1.129 million tons in April. Among them, China increased by 9.2%, India by 915%, Thailand by 2.4% and Malaysia by 15.8%. Among them, the main producer Thailand’s export volume of natural rubber in April increased by 34% year on year and decreased by 20% month on month.

From the perspective of downstream demand and the situation of tire manufacturers, may is the traditional peak of tire supply. Statistics show that the operating rate of manufacturers in this month is lower than that of last month, and the decline is more than expected. As of May 20, the operating rate of all steel tire enterprises was 62.52%, with a decrease of 6.08 percentage points per week and 2.83 percentage points per week on a year-on-year basis; The operating rate of semi steel tire enterprises was 60.98%, with a decrease of 3.75 percentage points per week and 2.27 percentage points per week. According to automobile data, China’s automobile production and sales in April were 2.234 million and 2.252 million respectively, with a month on month decrease of 9.3% and 10.8%, and a year-on-year increase of 6.3% and 8.6%. From January to April, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 8.586 million and 8.748 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 53.4% and 51.8% respectively. The growth rate dropped by 28.3 percentage points and 23.8 percentage points from January to March. Compared with the same period in 2019, the production and sales increased by 2.1% and 4.5% respectively, 2.1 percentage points and 2.9 percentage points higher than that from January to March. From the data of commercial vehicles, from January to April, the production and sales of domestic commercial vehicles were 1.918 million and 1.956 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 47% and 47.3% respectively. However, the year-on-year growth rate of commercial vehicle production and sales fell to 1.2% and 2.3% in April, and the demand support weakened. Foreign: Vietnam: according to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, in the first quarter of 2021, Vietnam’s rubber exports reached 674 million US dollars (4.32 billion yuan), a year-on-year increase of 103%. In the first quarter, the average price of rubber export also increased by 14% year on year, reaching US $1660 / T (RMB 10640 / T). Vietnam Rubber Association official said that the main reason for the increase in latex prices is mainly affected by COVID-19, and the supply of multinational goods is decreasing. Except for China, at present, the import volume of us rubber from Vietnam increases, while that from Thailand and Indonesia decreases, because Vietnam has enough manpower to cut rubber. This is an opportunity for Vietnam to expand its market and increase its exports.

From the aspect of inventory, the total inventory of the previous period was 179866 tons (+ 910 tons) as of May 28, and the volume of futures warehouse receipts was 176460 tons (- 210 tons). As of May 24, the inventory in Qingdao free trade zone was 98700 tons, a month on month decrease of 5.35%; General trade warehouse inventory was 52.17 tons, a month on month decrease of 3.89%, continuing the trend of destocking.

In terms of import and export, China: according to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on May 7, China imported 577000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in April 2021, an increase of 15.6% year on year. From January to April 2021, China imported 2.367 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 9.7% compared with 2.158 million tons in the same period of 2020. Cambodia: according to the report released by the Ministry of agriculture, forestry and fisheries, Cambodia’s rubber export volume in the first four months of this year decreased by 15% to 61056 tons, compared with 71749 tons in the same period last year. Rubber export revenue reached US $99.87 million, up 2.5% from US $97.43 million last year. Ivory Coast: according to the preliminary port data released on May 4, in the first quarter of 2021, Ivory Coast’s rubber exports totaled 242621 tons, down about 30% from 346135 tons in the same period of 2020. Vietnam: according to the preliminary data released by the Ministry of industry and trade, Vietnam’s rubber export volume in April 2021 was about 80000 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 92%; The export value was about 143 million US dollars, up 169% year on year. From January to April, the total export volume of rubber was about 486000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of about 80%; The total export value was about 817 million US dollars, an increase of about 112% year on year. Thailand: according to the Thai world daily, the rubber export industry recently revealed that the rubber export trend in 2021 has greatly improved. The latest data from the Ministry of Commerce showed that the rubber export volume in March was 349000 tons, an increase of 65.5%, and the value was 587 million US dollars, an increase of 109.2%. In the first quarter, the export volume of rubber was 870000 tons, up 10.7%, with a value of US $1.44 billion, up 38.1%. In particular, the demand of China’s market ranked first, accounting for 32% of the export share, and the demand for rubber increased by 17%; The second is Malaysia, Japan and the United States; India’s market demand increased by 127%, and rubber products also increased by 32.5%.

From the perspective of industry hotspots, first of all, the lack of core is serious: according to Thai media report on May 9, due to the shortage of global chip supply chain, Thailand’s auto production in 2021 is expected to decrease by 40000 vehicles year on year, and auto manufacturers must adjust the chip supply structure to meet long-term demand. Since the end of 2020, the global automobile industry has been facing the shortage of microchips, especially the important components of electronic components used to control the operation of vehicle driving assistance system and airbag system, which has led to the production interruption of many automobile manufacturers in many regions of the world. Second, on May 25, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced the final verdict on the anti-dumping of semi steel tires imported from South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. The result of this year’s final ruling is generally better than that of last year’s preliminary ruling. Among them, the area with the most obvious decline is Taiwan, China. The “double anti” tax of a few brands has increased, but the increase is small. Compared with the results of last year’s preliminary determination, the anti-dumping duties of Linglong tire and Zhengxin tire have been reduced. Among them, Zhengxin tire decreased by more than 61%. The final result of the round is the same as that of the preliminary round, and the export to the U.S. market is not affected by “double reverse”. Third, the lack of core affects the global automobile industry. The report said that since the end of 2020, the global automobile industry has been facing a shortage of microchips, especially microcontrollers, which are important components in electronic components used to control the operation of vehicle driving assistance system and airbag system, resulting in the production interruption of many automobile manufacturers in many regions of the world. In the second half of the year, the global chip shortage will be alleviated temporarily. However, in the long run, solving the structural problems in the supply chain of automobile chips will still be the main challenge for automobile manufacturers.

As for the novel coronavirus pneumonia, the analysis of the business community shows that from a macro perspective, the new crowns pneumonia outbreak and the virus mutation are more worrying. Many countries implement the policy of fighting against the epidemic situation. The recovery of economic activities is delayed or canceled due to health considerations, and economic development is bound to be deeply affected. Secondly, the commodity market is very sensitive to the changes of global politics, economy and other forms, and has great uncertainty in the current international situation. From the industrial point of view, natural rubber is now in the normal annual supply period. Although the supply in Southeast Asia will be affected by the epidemic, the overall pressure on the supply side of natural rubber is still increasing, and the global automobile demand is deeply affected by the economy and the epidemic. The purchasing demand of downstream tire enterprises for rubber is declining due to the decline of tire market demand, Although the domestic natural rubber is in the stage of destocking, the overall weak demand leads to the weak follow-up support of natural rubber. Taking into account the fact that there is a lot of buying around 13000 yuan / ton of HuJiao, it is more likely that natural rubber will fluctuate in the range of 1000 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of business news agency, the domestic potassium sulfate Market has a positive trend recently. As of May 27, the average price of domestic potassium sulfate 50 particle samples was 3050.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.81% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and an increase of 11.93% compared with the same period last year.

Previously, the price position of potassium sulfate had been in a higher position after the positive market accumulation in March and April. Since May, it has been dominated by a horizontal stalemate. Recently, the domestic spot price of potassium sulfate has risen significantly. In terms of operation rate, the plant load of domestic potassium sulfate Mannheim enterprises is still on the low side, with little change compared with the previous stage, and the overall operation rate is more than 70%. Shijiazhuang hehe chemical 52% potassium sulfate powder factory reference price of 3200 yuan / ton. Shijiazhuang Haofang chemical 50% potassium sulfate powder factory reference price of 2950 yuan / ton. Hebei Gaoqiao agricultural potassium sulfate 52% powder factory reference price of 3200 yuan / ton. Manufacturers mainly meet the early orders and direct sales customers. Potassium chloride also rose, domestic spot and port arrival rose at the same time, supply side is partial compact, potassium chloride market or high consolidation is expected. Back to potassium sulfate, the current cost support is strengthened, and the processing type potassium sulfate manufacturers are rising upstream. However, the demand side reaction was general, and the consumption of potassium sulfate was not large.

3、 Future forecast

The potassium sulfate analyst of business news agency thinks: the price of potassium chloride and potassium nitrate has risen in the near future, and the domestic potassium sulfate cost support has been strengthened, and the price has risen in the near future. Due to the pressure of production, businesses are willing to support the price. At present, the response of end users to the increase of potassium sulfate supply is weak, and the fluency of trading needs further observation. It is expected that the domestic potassium sulfate price will continue to run sideways in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the block data list of business news agency, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on May 26 was 5750 yuan / ton, up 466 yuan from 5283 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 8.83% in the month, and up 10.58% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In May, the phosphoric acid market was relatively stable in the first half of the month and fluctuated in a narrow range in the second half of the month. This month’s rise was mainly caused by the rising price of raw material yellow phosphorus. At present, the price of yellow phosphorus is about 25000 yuan / ton, and the supply of goods is short. The phosphoric acid market is supported by the cost, and the price linkage rises. The enterprise’s rise range is about 350-1100 yuan / ton, which quickly rises to a high level. Take Ronghong chemical industry as an example, the latest price is 6400 yuan / ton, and some enterprises also suffer from the decline of starting load due to the high price of raw materials, However, when the offer is closed and the report is stopped, most of the companies are in a wait-and-see situation, and the downstream still needs to purchase, with few high price transactions. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of May 26, the quotation in Sichuan was 5450-6000 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan was 6200 yuan / ton, that in Beijing was 4800 yuan / ton, that in Hubei was 5600-6200 yuan / ton, that in Tianjin was 6400 yuan / ton, that in Fujian was 6500 yuan / ton, and that in Henan was 5500-5600 yuan / ton, The price of phosphoric acid rose sharply.

In late May, the domestic phosphorus ore maintained a high consolidation operation. On May 25, the reference price of phosphorus ore was 510.00, up 6.25% compared with that on May 1 (480.00). At present, the overall trading atmosphere of the market is good, and the yellow phosphorus Market in the lower reaches is also slightly pushed up, which is effectively supported by the upper and lower reaches. Therefore, the phosphorus ore analysts of the business community believe that, In the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market will continue to be strong.

Yellow phosphorus, in late May, the price of yellow phosphorus rose rapidly. Affected by drought, lack of water and power restriction in Yunnan, the power of yellow phosphorus enterprises in some areas was less than 20%! Recently, power rationing has not been alleviated, but has become more and more serious. More yellow phosphorus plants are shut down, the shortage of spot goods is aggravating, and some manufacturers have temporarily stopped making external quotations. On the demand side, the downstream glyphosate price continued to rise, which was acceptable to the high price of yellow phosphorus, and played a certain role in boosting the price rise of yellow phosphorus.

3、 Future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analysts of Shangshe chemical branch, the market price of raw material yellow phosphorus has continued to rise in recent days, most of which have closed the offer and stopped reporting, and the phosphoric acid market has risen to a high level. It is expected that the price will still rise in the short term, and we need to pay close attention to the change of raw material price.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride is temporarily stable this week. The average price of potassium chloride mainstream comprehensive quotation this week is 2525.00 yuan / ton. Overall, this week’s potassium chloride market was temporarily stable, with the potassium chloride commodity index at 80.16 on May 21.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers is temporarily stable: the ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend is 2400 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Anhui Badou potassium chloride weekend sales offer 2650 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the offer is temporarily stable. The actual turnover of potassium chloride market this week is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction of the market is that supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, downstream purchasing is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

3、 Future forecast

In late May, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate slightly. The KCl market is facing the pressure of three big mountains, namely, Hong Kong’s large stock, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. KCl analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects of the short-term KCl market, the KCl market may be dominated by high consolidation.