According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to rise this week, and the rise was large. On August 18, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 100200 yuan / ton, which was 4.59% higher than that in early Zhou (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 95800 yuan / ton on August 15). On August 18, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 105000 yuan / ton, which was 6.06% higher than that in early Zhou (the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 99000 yuan / ton on August 15). On the 18th, the comprehensive quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate market was about 98000 ~ 105000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate market was about 103000 ~ 111000 yuan / ton.

According to the observation of market changes, the price of lithium carbonate has been rising continuously this week, and the rising range continues to expand, and the prices of many enterprises have been significantly adjusted. Due to the good market demand for low-end electric vehicles in China, the lithium iron phosphate route is favored, and the demand for lithium carbonate is good. In addition, the rapid rise of spodumene price also drives the upward trend of lithium carbonate price. Recently, Ganfeng lithium (002460. SZ), Tianqi lithium (002466. SZ) and Salt Lake shares (000792. SZ) have become popular all the way.

The price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide in the downstream increased again, the downstream demand for gas is still good, the market inquiry atmosphere is positive, the enterprise offer is high, and it is difficult to find a source of low-cost goods. In terms of lithium iron phosphate, at present, the mainstream quotation range of lithium iron phosphate power type is 51000-55000 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of energy storage lithium iron phosphate is 46000-49500 yuan / ton. The lithium iron phosphate Market has increased steadily, and the operation is stable, medium and strong in the short term.

On August 17, the lithium carbonate commodity index was 246.11, unchanged from yesterday, down 39.25% from the highest point 405.10 in the cycle (2018-01-07), and up 149.76% from the lowest point 98.54 on October 16, 2014（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of business society, at present, the supply of some lithium carbonate enterprises is relatively scarce. They suspend external quotation and mostly focus on price negotiation at the end of the month. Therefore, the price may still have room to rise. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate may continue to rise in the short term.

According to the data of business agency, as of August 15, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 4662.50 yuan / ton (including tax), down 0.27% from 4675.00 yuan / ton on August 9.

On August 15, the fuel oil commodity index was 94.43, unchanged from yesterday, down 18.53% from the highest point of 115.91 in the cycle (October 17, 2018), and up 104.93% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The decline of domestic marine oil raw materials has limited support for the cost of fuel oil 180CST. According to the business news agency, as of August 15, the quotation of 180 CST fuel oil and 120 CST fuel oil in Zhoushan was 4550 yuan / ton, and the quotation of 120 CST fuel oil was 4650 yuan / ton; The quotation of 180 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in Shanghai is 4650 yuan / ton, and the quotation of 120 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 4750 yuan / ton.

International crude oil prices fluctuated, mainly due to the demand concerns caused by the repeated epidemic, the continuous spread of delta virus, the serious impact on the world’s major economies, the restart of restrictive measures in many countries, and the serious pressure on demand. IEA lowered its forecast of global oil demand for the rest of 2021 and predicted that supply will exceed demand again in 2022.

Singapore’s increased fuel stocks have limited support for fuel oil prices. It is understood that the Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of August 11, Singapore’s fuel oil inventory increased by 128000 barrels to a two-week high of 22.566 million barrels.

Future forecast: energy analysts of business society believe that the recent international crude oil price shock, the continued weak trend of marine oil market, low demand, no obvious favorable transactions, and some businesses give up profits for promotion, but the overall market transactions are relatively few, the market trading is light, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is low, and the demand is dominated. It is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market will operate weakly in the near future.

Trade name: potassium chloride

Latest price (August 16): 3210.00 yuan / ton

On August 16, the mixed price of potassium chloride in Qinghai was temporarily stable, which was the same as the quotation on August 13. The demand for international potash fertilizer is strong, and the available supply of domestic potash fertilizer is tight. Although the production enterprises are fully engaged in production, the operating rate is slightly low and the self-sufficiency rate is insufficient. At the same time, the delivery of international potash fertilizer suppliers is delayed and the arrival at the port is limited.

Recently, the price of potassium chloride in Qinghai may fluctuate slightly, and the quotation is about 3200-3300 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium was 3400 yuan / ton on August 9 and 3600 yuan / ton on August 15. The price of monoammonium phosphate increased by 5.88% this week.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 3526 yuan / ton on August 9 and 3590 yuan / ton on August 15. The price of diammonium phosphate increased by 1.8% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of monoammonium phosphate rose this week, and the operating rate of enterprises was about 70%, down from last week. The price of monoammonium phosphate is still high, supported by the price of raw materials, and the downstream is purchased on demand. The units of some enterprises were shut down for maintenance, and the demand for monoammonium decreased in the later stage. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in China is 3500-3600 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of 58% powdered ammonium is about 3800 yuan / ton.

The price of diammonium phosphate rose this week, and the operating rate of enterprises was about 60%, up from last week. The enterprise has a large waiting volume, tight supply and good downstream demand. The factory quotation of 64% mainstream diammonium in Hubei is 3500-3600 yuan / ton, and that of 64% mainstream diammonium in North China is about 3600-3700 yuan / ton.

This week, the overall domestic market of raw phosphorus ore continued to operate at a high level and stably. At present, the market operating rate in Guizhou is low and the supply of phosphate rock is tight. It is heard that mining enterprises still have the intention to increase slightly in the later stage. At present, the price direction is mainly wait-and-see.

3、 Future forecast

The ammonium phosphate analyst of business society believes that the current ammonium phosphate Market is good and the price is always high when the raw material price is stable. Favorable cost support and tight supply. At present, the demand for monoammonium is weakened and the demand for diammonium continues to improve. It is expected that monoammonium will be adjusted in a narrow range in the short term, and diammonium may continue to rise.

Adipic acid market trend chart

According to the monitoring of the business community, this week (8.9-12), the domestic price of caprylic acid was stable. After the high decline in mid and late July, the current price stabilized and the market fluctuation was not strong. In addition to the negative impact caused by the decline in cost, the lack of improvement in demand was also the main factor restricting the development of the market. According to the monitoring of business agency, adipic acid in East China increased by only 0.28% this week. At present, the price range of adipic acid is 10700-11000 yuan / ton.

In terms of market supply, adipic acid manufacturers’ devices are generally normal this week, maintaining a high operating rate. The manufacturer’s inventory has been reduced and cleared in the early stage. At present, the inventory pressure is normal, but the current market demand is still weak, and the delivery speed of enterprises has decreased significantly. From the perspective of dealers, although the manufacturer’s inventory pressure is balanced, the market inventory pressure is still large. The market is in the process of de inventory, and some dealers mainly sell goods at a profit.

Trend chart of pure benzene Market

In terms of cost, pure benzene has been declining since August. As of August 12, pure benzene has fallen by 7.96% this month. While the cost pressure has been relieved, the price of adipic acid also reflects certain advantages. The manufacturer’s profit has been significantly improved compared with the previous period. Compared with the upstream pure benzene market, adipic acid has a relatively strong performance.

PA66 market trend chart

Terminal demand: from the downstream PA66 of adipic acid, PA66 is still hovering at the bottom. Since April, PA66 has entered the downstream channel. The off-season effect is obvious. The price has rebounded slightly this month, but the range is limited. According to the monitoring of business society, PA66 has increased slightly by 0.26% as of August 12. The weak downstream demand has an obvious impact on adipic acid.

In the later stage, the business society believes that the continuous decline of pure benzene may pave the way for the decline of adipic acid price in the later stage, especially under the background of no improvement in demand, it is possible for enterprises to reduce prices and ship goods. It is expected that the adipic acid price will remain stable in the near future, and the possibility of price decline will not be ruled out in the medium and long term.