According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of acrylic acid in the market will show a narrow range of fluctuations in 2024. Under the constraints of cost pressure and supply and demand factors, the market price fluctuates between 6100-7400 yuan/ton. Especially in December, due to tight supply, the price of acrylic acid showed a year-end upward trend, with a significant increase in price.

 

（1） Market Review of 2024

 

From the beginning of the year to the middle of the year (January to June)

 

At the beginning of the year, the price of acrylic acid was relatively low, but over time, the price gradually increased. Especially in April and June, there was a significant increase in the price of acrylic acid. For example, the price of acrylic acid in April was 6800 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.37% year-on-year; In June, the price of acrylic acid reached 7000 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.4% year-on-year.

 

Mid year to year-end (July to December)

 

Entering the second half of the year, the price of acrylic acid continues to show an upward trend. In July, the overall market price of acrylic acid showed a downward trend, with an average market price of about 6300 yuan/ton in mainstream regions, but then the price quickly rebounded. From the end of November to the beginning of December, there was a significant slight increase in the market price of acrylic acid, especially on December 24th, the average price of the mainstream market in China has reached 7500 yuan/ton, showing a significant increase compared to previous days.

 

Supply side: Global acrylic acid production capacity continues to increase by 2025

 

As of the latest statistical data, the global production capacity of acrylic acid has approached 9 million tons. Among them, Northeast Asia accounts for about 60% of the production capacity, while China holds 38% of the market share, becoming an important producer of acrylic acid worldwide. North America and Europe respectively occupy 15% and 16% of the production capacity.

 

In recent years, the global production capacity of acrylic acid has shown a steady growth trend. This is mainly due to the expansion of production capacity in the Asian market, especially in the Chinese market.

 

It is predicted that by 2025, the global production capacity of acrylic acid will experience significant growth, with the potential to increase to 10.35 million tons per year. As the main producer of acrylic acid in the world, China’s capacity expansion has a significant impact on the growth of global acrylic acid production capacity. It is predicted that China’s newly added acrylic acid production capacity will account for 66% of the newly added capacity in the Asian region, demonstrating China’s strong strength in the field of acrylic acid production.

 

Stable growth rate of acrylic acid production capacity in China by 2025

 

Capacity and output growth: In recent years, China’s acrylic acid production capacity has continued to grow steadily. As of the end of 2022, China’s acrylic acid production capacity has reached 3.9 million tons, a year-on-year increase of about 14.04%. By 2023, the production capacity will further increase to 4.08 million tons, and the output will grow to 2.54 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. By 2024, the production capacity of acrylic acid will further increase to 4.4 million tons, and it is expected to exceed 5 million tons and reach 5.14 million tons by 2025. These data indicate that China’s acrylic acid industry has strong production capacity and market supply capability.

 

Expected global production of acrylic acid in 2025

 

There is currently no definite number for the forecast of global acrylic acid production in 2025, as the forecast is influenced by various factors including capacity planning, market demand, raw material prices, production costs, global economic situation, policy changes, etc. However, based on existing industry trends and market analysis, we can attempt to make a rough prediction of global acrylic acid production by 2025.

 

Based on historical growth trends, it is predicted that the global production of acrylic acid in 2021 will be 7.65 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.37%. In 2023, the global production of acrylic acid has reached approximately 8.55 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. If we assume an annual growth rate of around 5% from 2022 to 2025, the global production of acrylic acid is expected to reach approximately 9.5 million tons by 2025.

 

At present, China’s acrylic acid industry is still expanding its production capacity. According to incomplete statistics, the planned and under construction acrylic acid production capacity in China is 940000 tons from 2025 to 2026. If successfully completed and put into operation, it is expected that the production capacity of acrylic acid will steadily increase in the next two years, and its production capacity is expected to exceed 5 million tons by 2026.

 

2025 Acrylic Acid New Production Capacity Project

 

Guangdong Maoming Acrylic Acid Industrial Park Project

 

Project scale: The total investment is about 11.5 billion yuan. The first phase plans to construct a 50000 ton/year acrylic acid plant and 100000 ton/year butyl acrylate (also known as 80000 ton/year butyl acrylate). The second phase plans to construct 960000 ton/year acrylic acid plant, 800000 ton/year acrylic acid plant (also known as 750000 ton/year butyl acrylate, 180000 ton/year octyl acrylate), and 540000 ton/year SAP plant.

 

In 2025, the acrylic acid industry will see the commissioning of multiple new production capacity projects and steady growth of existing production capacity. Against the backdrop of high downstream demand potential, technological innovation, and increasing environmental requirements, the acrylic acid industry will continue to maintain a steady growth trend.

 

Forecast of apparent consumption of acrylic acid in China in 2025

 

From the perspective of demand, in recent years, the overall demand for acrylic acid in China has shown a steady growth trend. The apparent consumption of acrylic acid in China was 2.415 million tons in 2022, 2.65 million tons in 2023, and 2.77 million tons in 2024. With the recovery of demand for acrylic acid, it is predicted to grow to 3.1 million tons by 2025.

 

Proportion of demand products in China by 2025

The downstream products of acrylic acid in 2025 mainly include acrylic esters SAP、 Cleaning aids, special acrylic esters, water treatment agents.

 

Among them, the demand for acrylic ester accounts for the highest proportion, reaching 60%; Next is the high water absorbent resin SAP, which accounts for 20% of the demand. From the downstream field of superabsorbent polymers (SAP), about 87% of SAP in China is used for hygiene products, mainly including sanitary napkins, diapers, etc. Acrylic esters can react with various alcohols to produce acrylic esters, including methyl ester, ethyl ester, butyl ester, and isooctyl ester (with butyl ester being the most widely used). After polymerization, they are widely used in industries such as coatings, adhesives, and textiles. The proportion of acrylic ester used in the production of coating products is 36%, and the proportion used in adhesive products is 31%. Both are the main downstream products of acrylic ester, accounting for over 65%.

 

Proportion of regional demand

 

From a regional distribution perspective, the Asia Pacific region is the main growth point for global demand for acrylic acid, accounting for over 50%, while the total demand from China and India accounts for about 70% of this region. This indicates that China holds an important position in the global demand market for acrylic acid.

 

Overall Import and Export Status of Acrylic Acid in 2024

 

Import situation: From January to November 2024, the cumulative import volume of acrylic acid in China was 21977.69 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 37.21% compared to the same period last year. But in November, the import volume increased significantly, reaching 4558.35 tons, a month on month increase of 101.65%. In terms of average import price, the average import price of acrylic acid in November was 5717.16 yuan/ton.

 

Export situation: From January to November 2024, the cumulative export volume of acrylic acid in China was 101401.38 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.21% compared to the same period last year. Although the overall export volume has decreased, the monthly export volume still fluctuates. In terms of average export price, the average export price of acrylic acid from January to November 2024 was 875.19 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 170.94 US dollars/ton or 16.34% compared to the same period last year.

 

Main import and export countries/regions

Importing country/region: South Korea is the largest source country for China’s acrylic acid imports, accounting for 55.57%; Next is Japan, accounting for 43.21%.

 

Exporting country/region: Taiwan, China, China has the largest export volume of acrylic acid, accounting for 26.73% of the total export volume; Next is South Korea, which accounts for 18.70%; The third is the United Arab Emirates, accounting for 10.26%.

 

Import and export prices and trends

 

Import price: The average import price of acrylic acid in each month of 2024 has fluctuated, but overall it has remained relatively stable.

 

Export price: The average export price of acrylic acid in 2024 has decreased compared to 2023, which has affected the overall export quantity of acrylic acid. But with changes in market supply and demand, export prices are expected to be adjusted in the future.

 

Future prospects:

 

With the gradual commissioning of domestic acrylic acid plants, it is expected that the production capacity of acrylic acid will increase significantly by 2025. This will further affect the supply and demand relationship and price trend of domestic and international acrylic acid markets. At the same time, the growth of domestic downstream production capacity is limited, and the demand growth rate is slower than the growth rate of raw materials, so the future export volume may face certain challenges.

 

Inventory and supply-demand balance forecast: Inventory will maintain a low supply-demand balance or be tight

 

Inventory situation

 

Historical inventory level: In January 2022, the social inventory of acrylic acid was only 5000 tons, reaching a new low in nearly five years. This indicates that the inventory level of the acrylic acid market has been consistently low.

 

Future inventory forecast: Due to limited new supply in the acrylic acid and ester industry and steady growth in demand, it can be predicted that the inventory level of the acrylic acid market will remain low in 2025.

 

Supply-demand balance forecast

 

Supply and demand balance: Taking into account both supply and demand, it can be predicted that the acrylic acid market will maintain a state of supply and demand balance or slightly tight by 2025.

 

Price trend: In a state of supply-demand balance or tightness, the prices of acrylic acid and esters may remain relatively stable or slightly increase.

 

In summary, the inventory of the acrylic acid market will remain at a low level in 2025, with a steady increase in supply capacity and strong demand. In a state of supply-demand balance or tightness, the prices of acrylic acid and esters may remain relatively stable or slightly increase.

 

In the short term, the inventory level of acrylic acid directly affects its market supply situation. When inventory is tight, a decrease in market supply may lead to price increases; On the contrary, sufficient inventory may lead to a decrease in prices. This supply-demand imbalance will lead to significant fluctuations in the price of acrylic acid in the market.

 

In the long run, the balanced development of supply and demand will have a significant impact on the price trend of acrylic acid. However, due to the uncertainty of the market caused by various factors, it is difficult to provide accurate predictions. However, we can predict the market price of acrylic acid between 6500-9000 yuan/ton in 2025 based on current market trends and supply and demand conditions.

http://www.thiourea.net

At the beginning of January, the domestic ABS market in China maintained consolidation, with spot prices of various grades stabilizing slightly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 7th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11837.50 yuan/ton, which remained the same as the beginning of the month.

 

Fundamental analysis

 

Supply level: In early January, the operating rate of the domestic ABS industry remained stable with a small increase, and the industry load level increased narrowly by about 2% to 74% compared to the end of last month. The load of enterprise equipment has increased, and production capacity is gradually returning. The weekly average production within the range is close to 130000 tons, and the inventory level of aggregation enterprises is close to 170000 tons, both of which have increased. The overall pattern of abundant supply of goods remains unchanged. Overall, the supply side provided average support for ABS spot prices in January.

 

Cost factor: Since January, the three upstream materials of ABS have shown mixed trends, with overall support for ABS costs being average. The domestic acrylonitrile market has maintained a sideways trend recently. In the early stage, the industry maintained low load operation, with low inventory levels and tight supply. But the news of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical’s production has smoothed out the positive news on the supply side, and the overall market is adopting a wait-and-see attitude.

 

Recently, the butadiene market has continued to rise, and the overall available supply in the spot market is tight. Holders of goods have a strong mentality of supporting prices. Boosted by this news, market quotes generally rose. But as prices continue to rise, downstream high-level receiving capacity gradually declines. As the Spring Festival approaches, some pre holiday purchasing demand has been released downstream, driving an improvement in the atmosphere of the spot market.

 

At the beginning of January, the styrene market rebounded narrowly after a decline. With the restart of the equipment, the domestic industry’s operating rate has rebounded in the early stage, and the tight supply situation has become more relaxed, resulting in a weakened market. Recently, there has been a rebound in upstream crude oil prices, while downstream demand has remained relatively stable. The market may enter a consolidation phase in the future.

 

In terms of demand, downstream purchasing power decreased in early January, and the demand for export of some front-end household appliances in the terminal sector was completely released. The overall load position of factories fell, and the willingness of terminal stocking decreased. Overall, the demand side provides average market support. However, the extension of the national subsidy policy for household appliances will stimulate the market, and terminal products may continue to receive policy support in the future. There is hope for enterprise inventory digestion, and market confidence is expected to rebound.

 

Future forecast

 

At the beginning of January, the domestic ABS market operated steadily. The performance of the upstream three materials is average, and the comprehensive support for ABS cost side is flat. The load of ABS polymerization plant has slightly rebounded, and the inventory of finished products has accumulated slightly. The demand on the demand side is relatively weak, but as the end of the lunar calendar approaches, the on-site demand is limited. Business analysts believe that the ABS market may enter a pre holiday period and consolidate weakly.

http://www.thiourea.net

Last week (December 27, 2024- January 5, 2025), the center of gravity of the nylon filament market fell. The market trend on the raw material side is not good, the support on the cost side is declining, the supply on site is relatively abundant, and downstream manufacturers have low purchasing enthusiasm. Multiple parties hold sporadic demand orders, and under the interweaving of news on the market, the price of nylon filament has fallen sharply.

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of nylon filament slightly decreased last week (December 27, 2024- January 5, 2025). As of January 5, 2025, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 16660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 420 yuan/ton from last week, a weekly decrease of 2.46%; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 14350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly decline of 2.05%. The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is reported at 17500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 425 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly decline of 2.37%.

 

Raw materials continue to decline

 

In terms of cost: Last week (December 27, 2024- January 5, 2025), Sinopec lowered the weekly settlement price of high-end caprolactam by 380 yuan/ton to 10930 yuan/ton. As of January 5, 2025, the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society was 10776 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.16%. The market price of PA6 high-speed spun slices has slightly decreased, and the raw material market price has weakened and declined during the week, with a weekly decline of 0.67%, indicating a lack of cost support.

 

On the supply side: Currently, the nylon filament market is operating at around 8.4% capacity, with little fluctuation in the operating rate of market facilities. On site inventory remains at a normal level, and the positive support from the supply side is limited.

 

Downstream demand: Terminal market demand remains weak, with insufficient new orders in the downstream market. Most factories are in the year-end closing stage, with limited replenishment plans and no improvement in demand.

 

Future forecast

 

The cost support of upstream raw materials may be strengthened to some extent, and the supply of caprolactam market may increase to some extent. The demand side will follow up with replenishment as needed, and the caprolactam market segment will be sorted out in the later stage; In terms of PA6 slicing, the caprolactam market is expected to maintain stable prices, and downstream manufacturers still have a cautious attitude towards purchasing. The PA6 slicing market will remain stable with small fluctuations in the later stage. There is currently no clear plan to reduce production in the nylon filament market, and the on-site supply may remain high, with the possibility of an increase in inventory levels; The Spring Festival holiday is approaching, and the demand in the terminal market is weak. The possibility of downstream market stocking is not high, and some downstream manufacturers may gradually reduce production and holiday, which may lead to a decrease in demand. Overall, the spot market for raw material caprolactam and the PA6 chip market may experience consolidation and operation, with relatively stable cost side support. Downstream manufacturers have a certain degree of risk aversion, with less inventory and difficult demand side support. Business analysts predict that the nylon filament market will mainly experience weak consolidation and operation in the later stage, with little price change.

http://www.thiourea.net

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on January 3rd, the reference price for the domestic silicon metal # 441 market was 11560 yuan/ton. Compared with December 31st (the market price for silicon metal # 441 was 11690 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.11%.

 

From the market monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that after the New Year’s Day holiday, the domestic spot market for silicon metal continued to experience a deep decline, and the market center of gravity adjusted downward again, with a price reduction of around 50-200 yuan/ton; The spot price of metallic silicon 441 # in East China has been lowered by 100 yuan, with a reference price of 11500~11600 yuan/ton; The market price of metal silicon 441 # in Kunming area has been lowered by 150 yuan/ton, with a reference price of 11650 yuan/ton; The market price reference for metal silicon 441 # in Tianjin Port area is 11300~11600 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 50 yuan/ton; The market price reference for metal silicon 441 # in Huangpu Port area is 11400~11600 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 100 yuan/ton; The market price reference for metal silicon 441 # in Sichuan region is 11300~11400 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 50 yuan/ton; The market price reference for metallic silicon 441 # in Shanghai is 11950 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 100 yuan/ton.

 

Analysis of Market Factors

 

Supply side: After the holiday, downstream procurement demand was not fully released, and there were fewer new orders in the market. The overall operating rate of the silicon metal market still slightly decreased, and the overall operating rate of the market was at a low level throughout the year. Among them, the operating rate in Yunnan was around 45%, the operating rate in Xinjiang was around 60%, and the operating rate in Sichuan was close to 13% due to high electricity prices during the dry season and sluggish market conditions. However, due to the drag of demand, there is still some supply pressure in the market, and the supply-demand contradiction is exposed. The overall support of the silicon metal market is insufficient.

 

Market Price Trends of Metal Silicon

 

Region/ Brand number/ January 3rd

East China region/ Without oxygen 553 #/ 10900~11100 yuan/ton

East China region/ Oxygen 553 #/ 11300~11400 yuan/ton

East China region/ 521 #./11600~11800 yuan/ton

East China region/ 441 #./11500~11600 yuan/ton

East China region/ 421 #./11700~12000 yuan/ton

Huangpu Port area/ Without oxygen 553 #/ 11200~11300 yuan/ton

Huangpu Port area/ Oxygen 553 #/ 10900~11100 yuan/ton

Huangpu Port area/ 441 #./11400~11600 yuan/ton

Kunming area/ Without oxygen 553 #/ 11000~11100 yuan/ton

Kunming area/ Oxygen 553 #/ 11200~11300 yuan/ton

Kunming area/ 441 #./11600~11700 yuan/ton

Market analysis in the future

 

At present, the trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is relatively light. After the holiday, the overall market demand has not improved significantly, and the supply side’s destocking performance is poor. There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. The metal silicon data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly experience slight fluctuations, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

http://www.thiourea.net

Price trend

 

According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market experienced a consolidation after a rise in December, with most spot prices of certain brands first rising and then fluctuating. As of December 31st, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 16516.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of 3.99% compared to early December.

 

Cause analysis

 

On the supply side: In December, the load changes of domestic PC aggregation enterprises were limited. At the beginning of the month, companies such as Jiaxing Emperor gradually returned, and the industry average operating rate increased from 75% at the beginning of the month to over 80%, and then slightly fell back to 78%. The average weekly production remains at a super high level of over 60000 tons. The on-site supply of goods is still abundant, and the mismatch between supply and demand remains unchanged. The high inventory has led to cautious pricing by manufacturers, while the market supply side has provided average support for PC prices.

 

In terms of raw materials: After a previous downturn, the bisphenol A market rebounded significantly in December. At the beginning of the month, some companies underwent maintenance and there was news of delayed production of new equipment, which led to favorable news on the supply side. At the same time, the arrival of raw material phenol cargo at the port was delayed at the end of November, and the main downstream PC and epoxy resin stocks were stable. Influenced by multiple favorable factors, the price of bisphenol A rebounded. But as the bulls gradually ran out, the upward trend of bisphenol A prices was hindered, and the support for PC costs first strengthened and then flattened.

 

In terms of demand, the PC consumption pattern has not improved for a long time, and the overall trend has been relatively weak in the previous period. At the end of the year, some export orders were placed in the market, and the overall logic of weak rigid demand procurement continues. The wait-and-see sentiment of industry players is biased. As the holiday approaches, downstream factories are stocking up to maintain production, and buyers are resistant to high priced goods. Therefore, purchasing and chasing price increases should be cautious. The slow circulation of goods in the market has limited changes, and the demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.

 

Future forecast

 

After the PC market rose in December, it was sorted out. The upstream bisphenol A market is currently stagnant and consolidating, maintaining support for PC costs. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants has basically leveled off, and the supply remains loose and unchanged. The high level of inventory in the industry has limited changes, and there has been no substantial improvement in supply pressure. The downstream stocking pattern has not changed, making it difficult to drive market trends. Business Society believes that the positive news for raw materials is gradually dissipating, the holiday market is becoming stronger, and Zhejiang Petrochemical has plans to increase its load. It is expected that there will be downward pressure on the PC market in the future, and the market may turn weak and consolidate.

http://www.thiourea.net