1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, on the 29th, the spot nickel price quoted was 109816.67 yuan / ton, a small drop of 0.84% compared with the previous trading day, 3.44% lower than the beginning of the year, and 0.99% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Sino US trade frictions continued to escalate, and the global economic and trade prospects were worrying. The weak volatility of LUNI nickel closed down 0.72% overnight. London Metal Exchange (LME) 28 Lun nickel inventory of 234852 metric tons, 96 tons less than the previous trading day. Earlier, Tesla CEO Elon Musk told suppliers in a second quarter earnings conference call on July 23 that “if you exploit nickel efficiently in an environmentally friendly way, Tesla will give you a long-term big contract.” Affected by the news, nickel prices rose sharply before. Recently, Philippine nickel ore exports tend to be relaxed, but the overall export rhythm is still limited. On the domestic demand side in July, the domestic output of 300 series stainless steel may stabilize after July, and the pace of steel mills preparing raw materials in advance is also gradually slowing down.

3、 Future prospects

After market forecast: nickel demand growth slowed down while supply continued to increase, global supply or overall surplus in the third quarter, nickel prices mainly short-term or high shocks.

1、 Price trend of propylene oxide

(Figure: P value curve of propylene oxide product)

2、 Market analysis

The market of propylene oxide is rising recently. As of July 27, the average price quoted by propylene oxide enterprises was 11000 yuan / ton, which was 9.27% higher than last Monday (July 20) and 8.91% higher than that of June 27 (10100 yuan / ton), according to the large list data of business agency. At present, the inventory of propylene oxide plant is not under pressure, and the operating rate in the north is slightly reduced, which supports the manufacturers’ mentality of supporting the market. Some downstream costs are under pressure, and the follow-up is fair. The terminal is more and more resistant to high price raw materials, and purchase on demand.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the recent summary of the price of propylene oxide of enterprises (for reference only, the spot price of merchants is subject to the market, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.)

Enterprise market price specification date

Dongying Jinying Chemical Co., Ltd. 10800 yuan / T, quality grade: excellent products, July 26, 2020

Jinan planhua Chemical Co., Ltd. 10500 yuan / T national standard 99.9 2020-07-24

Jinan Mingwei Chemical Co., Ltd. 10500 yuan / ton, quality grade: excellent products, July 24, 2020

Upstream propylene, on July 27, the market price of propylene in Shandong continued to decline. According to the price chart of the business agency, the recent price of propylene fluctuates periodically, with a relatively stable price range. On the 27th, the market turnover was between 6620 and 7000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was about 6650 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory pressure of propylene manufacturers is not big, the shipment is flat, the crude oil price is slightly down, the downstream overall market operating rate is fair, PP futures market is slightly up. After the price reduction on weekends, most of the current propylene market prices have been near the lower limit of the oscillation range, and the downstream replenishment cycle is coming, and the purchasing enthusiasm is slightly increased. Therefore, it is expected that the propylene price may start to stabilize temporarily in the near future.

According to the price monitoring data of the business agency, as of July 27, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol with packaging in mainstream areas was around 11900 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the price at the beginning of the month. As of July 27, the price of raw materials of soft foam polyether in the lower reaches has risen, the cost has been under pressure, and the high-end goods in southern China have been tight. The market price has risen widely. The resistance of the downstream to high prices has become increasingly strong, and the rigid demand procurement is the main factor.

3、 Future forecast

Propylene oxide analysts of the business agency believe that the price of propylene oxide Market is going down in the near future, and the profit margin of propylene oxide is further improved. Factories generally have no inventory to support manufacturers to support the market. The middle and lower reaches maintain on-demand procurement, and the terminal is increasingly resistant to high prices. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market may absorb the increase, and more attention should be paid to the information guidance from all aspects of the market.

International crude oil prices soared and fell, maintaining high volatility. The gasoline market demand in the three volt weather was good, which was favorable for the demand of MTBE and other intermediate materials. The price of MTBE on July 24 was 3816 yuan / ton, up 0.88% from the price at the beginning of the week, according to the business agency.

In addition, the terminal oil prices are relatively high, and the demand for gasoline in the domestic market is relatively high. Refineries have a good demand for gasoline raw materials. Meanwhile, affected by the flood disaster in southern China, local oil distributors are relatively passive in entering the market, and the overall purchasing and marketing atmosphere of MTBE market is relatively flat, mainly maintaining rigid demand.

As of July 24, the average operating load of atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was about 75%, an increase of 1% compared with last week. The recovery of gasoline production increases the demand for intermediate feedstock.

Analysts of MTBE products of energy branch of business cooperatives believe that: the domestic gasoline price demand is good, which supports the demand for intermediate materials such as MTBE, but the market entry operation of the oil blending market is relatively negative, and the MTBE manufacturers’ shipment is weak. It is expected that the price of MTBE manufacturers will be stabilized in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of domestic soda ash is mainly weak and stable this week. The average market price in East China at the beginning of the week was about 1273.33 yuan / ton, while that at the weekend was 1266.67 yuan / ton, with a drop of 0.52% and a decrease of 22.92% compared with the same period last year. The commodity index of light soda ash on July 23 was 64.96, down 0.34 points compared with yesterday, 44.88% lower than 117.86 points (2017-11-21), and 2.87% higher than the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business agency, there is no obvious sign of improvement in the downstream demand of soda ash market at present, and the market price is still dominated by large, stable and small movements. In North China, the mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1250-1350 yuan / ton and that of heavy soda is 1350-1450 yuan / ton; in East China, the price of light soda ash is about 1100-1250 yuan / ton, and that of heavy soda ash is 1200-1350 yuan / ton; in Central China, the market price of light soda ash is about 1100-1250 yuan / ton, and that of heavy soda ash is 1200-1350 yuan / ton At present, the mainstream market price is about 1000-1100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1100-1200 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is light, the demand of downstream market is not recovered well, the enterprise inventory is high, and the active shipment is mainly, and the market transaction is general. It is expected that the price of soda ash will consolidate the market in the short term.

In terms of raw materials: the well salt is greatly affected by the maintenance of downstream soda ash enterprises, and the market atmosphere is poor, and most of them are purchased on demand; the sea salt stock is sufficient and the market is stable; the downstream centralized maintenance of lake salt, coupled with the light soda market, leads to weak delivery and follow-up.

Demand: this week, the domestic glass market is mainly stable, and some enterprises have raised prices. The overall trend of glass spot market in East China is fair, and the situation of production enterprises leaving the warehouse has not changed much, and the market confidence has increased month on month. At present, the order situation of downstream processing enterprises is fair. Affected by rainfall and other factors in some areas, the delivery time to downstream real estate enterprises is slightly delayed, but the overall processing order volume can maintain for about one month. Production enterprises in the near future, the situation is OK, also have strong confidence in the later. It is believed that in the traditional sales peak season, the terminal market demand will also start in succession. Therefore, although the inventory of some manufacturers is on the high side, the willingness to support the price is relatively strong. Recently, the number of glass in Central China entering the East China market has decreased, mainly due to the impact of Yangtze River shipping. With the approaching of traditional sales peak season, the market confidence of production enterprises has improved, and the willingness to stand out is also relatively strong.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 28th week (7.13-7.17) of 2020, there are 2 kinds of commodities rising and 2 kinds of falling commodities in the price rising and falling list of chlor alkali industry, and 1 kind of commodity is up and down to 0. The main commodities that rose were electricity (0.73%) and hydrochloric acid (0.70%); the main commodities that fell were caustic soda (- 0.98%) and PVC (- 0.34%). This week, the average rise and fall was 0.02%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysts of the business agency, the inventory of soda ash is still large at this stage, and the glass inventory is still at a high level. The downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, while traders are more on the wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the domestic soda ash market will be sorted out in the short term, with small fluctuations.

On July 17, the notice of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region Industry and information department and other four departments on printing and distributing the financial subsidy work plan of Guangxi raw silk pledge guarantee loan promoted the downstream inquiry and transaction to some extent. Some manufacturers negotiated prices smoothly, and their positive intention to take goods increased. The market price of cocoon silk recovered slightly.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of July 22, the average price of dried cocoon market was 90000, up 0.90% compared with the previous day. The raw silk market also showed signs of improvement. As of July 22, the average price of raw silk market was 270500 yuan / ton, up 0.74% compared with the previous day. At present, the price of dried cocoon is 91000 yuan / ton in Jiaxing of Zhejiang Province, 270000 yuan / ton of raw silk, 89000 yuan / ton of dried cocoon and 271000 yuan / ton of raw silk in Guangxi.

Last week, a small number of fresh cocoons were listed in Yizhou and Liucheng. According to some local cocoon stations, the purchase price of Yizhou is about 24-28 yuan / kg, and the purchase price has no fluctuation for the time being; the purchase price of Liucheng is about 29-31 yuan / kg, and the price based on quality will be lower. In Xincheng, the purchase of fresh cocoons in the first half of the year has basically ended, and sericulture farmers have begun to cut mulberry gardens in summer to prepare for raising autumn cocoons in the second half of the year. The peak period of Sichuan Mianyang summer cocoon market is coming to an end. According to some local cocoon stations, due to the influence of high temperature and rainfall, the quality of fresh cocoons on the market is average. At present, the average purchase price is about 27-28 yuan / kg. According to the quality, the purchase price of fresh cocoons with better quality can reach about 30 yuan / kg. In addition, the spring cocoon purchasing work in Qinglong Town of Chongqing has been fully completed, and the purchase price of this batch of spring cocoons is 36 yuan per kilogram.

In the middle of July, with the deepening of the off-season atmosphere in the industry, the consumer market as a whole is still depressed, showing obvious characteristics of the off-season. The demand side has not yet shown significant signs of recovery. At present, traders are mainly on the wait-and-see situation, and future orders remain light. From the perspective of textile industry, from January to June, the total retail sales of shoes, hats and knitwear in China totaled 512 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.6% over the same period. In terms of export, according to the latest statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, from January to June, China’s textile and garment exports amounted to US $125.188 billion, an increase of 3.16% year-on-year, of which the cumulative export of textiles was US $74.103.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27.81%; and that of clothing was $51.844 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 19.39%. Since the second quarter, with the surge in demand for epidemic prevention materials in Europe and the United States and other countries, textiles including masks have become an important support for China’s export.

Business agency analysts believe that, under the support of Guangxi’s release of the financial subsidy program for raw silk pledge guarantee loan, the overall price has risen slightly. However, the lack of back-end consumer power has become the biggest pressure on the price rise of cocoon silk. The raw silk of all grades is in general, and the downstream price depressing sentiment is still strong. In particular, the uncertain and unstable factors faced by foreign trade development have increased significantly. The export situation in the second half of the year is still complex and severe. The cocoon and silk industry, which takes export as the main trade mode, will continue to operate under pressure. It is expected that the price of cocoon silk is likely to weaken in the future.