On July 15, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 103.51, which was the same as yesterday. It was 12.59% lower than the cyclical peak of 118.42 points (2019-01-15), and 33.79% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend is temporarily stable. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant shuts down more, domestic ammonium nitrate plant starts less, but recently with the warming of the weather, the influence of northern air limitation disappears. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles. Domestic prices are declining. As of the 15th day, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price talks in 1900-2050 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, so now many manufacturers in many areas are forced to limit production or stop production and maintenance for environmental protection inspection, the price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is temporarily stable.

The recent domestic nitric acid price trend is temporarily stable, the market price is 1773.33 yuan/ton as of the 15th day. The temporary stable trend of nitric acid price has a certain positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable. The domestic liquid ammonia Market in the upstream is rising slightly, the market performance is general, and the market transaction is still acceptable, mainly due to the upstream cost increase. Additionally, the transaction remained stable. Most of the manufacturers’inventory pressure eased slightly compared with the previous period, and some of the overhauls were the main ones. The supply performance of most manufacturers in North China was still acceptable. The price quoted by manufacturers in North China was maintained at around 3200 yuan/ton. The price quoted by manufacturers in Northwest China was between 2750 and 2800 yuan/ton. The manufacturers shipped normally and downstream manufacturers. Rational purchasing and rising prices of raw materials in the upstream have a positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market. The price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market is shaking at a low level because of the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market price shocks, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to maintain shocks in the later period.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic acetic acid market first restrained and then rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of acetic acid in eastern China was about 2700 yuan/ton. At the end of the week, the average price of acetic acid in eastern China fell to about 2633 yuan/ton. The price of acetic acid slightly dropped by 2.47%, and the lowest price in the week was 2600 yuan/ton. At present, the quotation in Henan is around 2400-2450/ton; in Shandong, 2600-2750 yuan/ton; in Hebei, 2500-2550 yuan/ton; in Shaanxi, 2050 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, 2600-2700 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang, 2750-2850 yuan/ton; and in South China, 2700-2800 yuan/ton./ About a ton, the overall decline was 42.12% over the same period last year.

II. Cause Analysis

Products: At the beginning of this week, the domestic acetic acid market was affected by the poor demand downstream, and the price of acetic acid continued to fall. Near the weekend, Jiantao, Longyu, Henan and Yima planned maintenance continuously, which led to the supply of acetic acid in North China and Central China was tight, and the price of acetic acid increased accordingly. The concentrated maintenance period in June in East China led to the increase of the price of acetic acid. The supply gap still needs time to recover, so prices follow suit. In terms of start-up, the industry’s start-up rate is still acceptable, with the overall start-up rate of about 85% in a week, 3-4 days in Jiantao, 3-2 days in Yima, Henan, and about January in Longyu.

Industry chain: In the upstream, domestic methanol market is affected by weak demand. Enterprise shipments are general. At the beginning of the week, the average price of methanol market is 2160 yuan/ton. At the end of the week, it reported 2134 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.2%. The price is 25.3% lower than that of the same period last year. Affected by the strong price of raw materials and tight supply, domestic acetate and vinyl acetate etc. The industry is steadily rising in the week, and is expected to consolidate at a high level in a short time. Domestic PTA spot market delivery is light, rising first and then falling in the week, currently about 6700 yuan/ton.

International: North American acetic acid market has been running steadily in a week, currently about 400 US dollars per ton; Asian acetic acid market is affected by the increase of supply, stable and soft in a week, and the current quotation is 330-395 US dollars per ton; European acetic acid market is affected by the insufficient support of raw material methanol, weak operation in a week, and the current quotation is about 685 Euro/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

At present, domestic acetic acid enterprises have successively introduced maintenance plans. The spot supply is insufficient and the stock is low. It is difficult to alleviate the supply-side gap in the short term. The acetic acid data analysts of business associations believe that the overall trade in the acetic acid market is still slightly flat. The poor downstream demand is insufficient to support the price of acetic acid, and the reduction of acetic acid supply can only be achieved in the short term. In a short period of time, the acetic acid market will rise slightly.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of July 11, the average price of domestic aggregated MDI market was 12,200 yuan/ton, and the overall market was not hot.

II. Market Analysis

Products: The overall price of domestic aggregated MDI market continued to decline slowly. The early market continued to be light and tidy, and the stockholders followed suit. There were many negative drops in the delivery of goods. A sudden stop of a device in Europe has been reported in the market. Domestic factories need to transfer goods urgently and the supply of factories has been tightened. However, there are different opinions, and some agents have raised their prices slightly. At present, the exact verification of which device, which line and what problems arise in Europe is not available. It is a means of market hype.

On the market side, the aggregated MDI market in South China has been smoothly consolidated. Encouraged by the news, the holders generally hold firm quotations, some tentative increases, inquiries are general, wait and see the price of Cox founder. The aggregate MDI market in East China has stabilized and consolidated. The news boosted the market quotation to stop falling and the low price disappeared. The holder’s quotation is cautious, accompanied by shipment, and the turnover situation is not obviously better. The aggregated MDI market in North China was tidied up and low prices disappeared. Influenced by the news from market suppliers and manufacturers, the mindset of the industry has been boosted, the market price has stopped falling, the price of the holder has risen tentatively, and the trading situation needs to be improved.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: Shandong pure benzene market price is stable, the mainstream is 4910-5150 yuan per ton. The market divergence is large, there are individual factory shipments are still acceptable, but most refining reflects the general goods. Pure benzene external market continues to rise, market participants are more optimistic about the future trend of pure benzene. Aniline: Aniline market is stable. Downstream demand is weak, aniline factory inventory declines slowly, at present, the factory is mainly stable price de-inventory. North China mainstream negotiation price reference at 5900-6070 yuan/ton. East China market mainstream reference 6100-6200 yuan/ton acceptance.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Perspective: Business Cooperative Aggregate MDI analysts predict that short-term domestic aggregate MDI market wait-and-see is dominant, affected by news, prices can stop falling and stabilize.

On July 8, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 103.51, which was the same as yesterday. It was 12.59% lower than the peak of 118.42 points in the cycle (2019-01-15), and 33.79% higher than the low of 77.37 points on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend is temporarily stable. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant shuts down more, domestic ammonium nitrate plant starts less, but recently with the warming of the weather, the influence of northern air limitation disappears. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles. Domestic prices are declining. As of the 9th day, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiations were in the range of 1900-2050 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, so now many manufacturers in many areas are forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance to accept environmental protection inspection, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is temporarily stable.

Recent domestic nitric acid price fluctuation, as of the 9th day, the market price is 1793.33 yuan/ton. The price fluctuation of nitric acid has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable. The domestic liquid ammonia Market in the upstream is stable, the market performance is weak, the market turnover is still acceptable, and the quotations of most manufacturers are stable. The price quotation of manufacturers in the northern region is maintained in the range of 2850-3600 yuan/ton. The price quotation in the northwest region is around 2750-2900 yuan/ton. The inventory pressure of manufacturers is not high. Normal shipment, rational purchasing of downstream manufacturers and declining price of raw materials in the upstream have a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market. The price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market is shaking at a low level because of the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market price shocks, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to maintain shocks in the later period.

On July 8, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 57.42, unchanged from yesterday, down 52.20% from the cyclical peak of 120.13 points (2012-02-28), and up 18.59% from the lowest point of 48.42 on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of phthalic anhydride has risen slightly, the market price of phthalic anhydride in East China has rebounded, downstream factories have just needed to purchase, factory inventory is still under pressure, high-end transactions have been blocked, the mainstream of on-site neighbouring source negotiations is 5800-6000 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiations is 5300-5400 yuan/ton; the phthalic anhydride market in North China is still under pressure. Mainstream quotation ranges from 5800 to 6000 yuan/ton, market price rises slightly, quotation of enterprises rises slightly, downstream start-up is not high, on-demand procurement is the main, wait-and-see mentality is strong, domestic phthalic anhydride plant operation is stable, phthalic anhydride spot supply is normal, phthalic anhydride price trend is rising.

Recently, the domestic price of phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec o-phthalic acid is 5900 yuan/ton. The import price of o-phthalic anhydride in the port area has risen, and the quotation has risen. Recently, the market of o-phthalic anhydride in the port is general, and the port stock is low. Upstream raw materials mixed xylene price shocks, phthalic turnover is general, port phthalic inventory is low, phthalic external quotation is higher, import phthalic cost shocks, the actual transaction price is detailed, upstream price trend shocks, phthalic anhydride market price rise is limited. Downstream DOP raw material phthalic anhydride price rises, isooctanol price rises, DOP cost rises. DOP price shocks are higher, DOP downstream demand is general, customer purchasing enthusiasm is general, downstream PVC market shocks are stable, DOP market mainstream transaction price is about 7400 yuan/ton, DOP downward pressure is weakened, there is a certain upward momentum, the market price of phthalic anhydride is expected to rise slightly later.