Commodity Name: Acetone

Market Price (East China June 12): 3000 yuan/ton

Analysis Points: Domestic acetone market is weak and difficult to adjust. At present, the trading atmosphere in the market is weak, the on-site holders are unstable, and the enthusiasm for delivery is high, while the terminal factories just need to purchase insufficiently, the volume of actual transaction is limited, and the transaction is scarce. It is estimated that the mainstream negotiation price in the East China market is 3000-3050 yuan/ton; the negotiation range in the surrounding Yanshan market is 3150-3200 yuan/ton; and the mainstream negotiation price in the South China market is around 3100 yuan/ton. Business associations expect acetone to operate in a weak market and fluctuate in an interval.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic acetic acid market continued to rise this week. The average price of acetic acid in eastern China was about 2576 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and it rose to about 2626 yuan/ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 1.94% in the week. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 2350-2400/ton; in Shandong is about 2550-2700 yuan/ton; in Hebei is about 2500 yuan/ton; in Shaanxi is about 2100 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu is about 2600-2700 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang is about 2750-2850 yuan/ton; and in South China, the quotation is about 2600-2750 yuan/ton. About 52% lower than the same period last year.

II. Cause Analysis

Products: This week, the acetic acid Market in eastern China was affected by the overhaul of enterprises’installations, resulting in a tight spot supply and a sustained increase in the enterprise’s delivery price; how long a single shipment was made by enterprises in North China, the supply of acetic acid was stable and the price of acetic acid was relatively strong; and the Northwest China was affected by factors such as the holidays of Eid al-Fitr, which resulted in a significant decline in enterprise’s inventory and a large price. The price of acetic acid rose slightly in the week because of the overall market climate in central China. In terms of start-up, the overall start-up rate of the industry has decreased before, and the overall rate is about 65%. Huayi Group’s Shanghai and Anhui factories are under maintenance; Soap in Jiangsu Province restarted at the weekend, but it has not yet returned to normal; 1.2 million tons per year of Celanese plant started 50%; 350,000 tons per year of Dalian Hengli plant has begun production, and the time for external sales is waiting. Fixed.

Industry chain: In the upstream, the domestic methanol market declined weakly this week, with an average price of 2228 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, 2228 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 3.05% in the week, and a decline of 20.64% over the same period last year. Acetate and vinyl acetate industries, affected by the high price of raw materials acetic acid, increased slightly in the week, but the whole week. The contradiction between physical supply and demand is prominent, profit is maintained on the horizontal line, and it is expected that the latter period will be weak and stable; PTA spot market will decline slightly in the week affected by downstream demand downturn, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the industry is obvious, and the turnover is flat.

International: This week, the North American acetic acid market was affected by the tight supply, which rose slightly in the whole week, currently about 415 US dollars per ton; the Asian acetic acid market was affected by the decline of supply in China and continued to rise in the week, but the overall buying gas was still weak, and the current quotation was 335-400 US dollars per ton; the European acetic acid market was affected by the export of acetic acid from Asia. It has been operating steadily within a week and is currently operating at about $520 per ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

At present, the domestic acetic acid market spot supply continues to decline, some enterprises have low inventories, supply side temporarily appears a small gap, some traders are active in buying gas, stimulating the rise of enterprises, the overall downstream industry demand is still slightly weak, business community acetic acid data analysis believes that the domestic acetic acid market will be strong in the near future. Rise.

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the prices of domestic pure benzene enterprises are generally stable this week. Some enterprises have made small price adjustments. The highest price of pure benzene this week is 4300-4500 yuan/ton.

II. Analytical Review

1. Products: At the beginning of this week, due to the favorable impact of last week’s inventory decline data in East China Port, the overall market climate has improved. As the price of crude oil began to fall sharply in the end of the day, the trading atmosphere of the whole market turned to light and the focus of the negotiations moved down. However, the overall price of pure benzene is strong, and the price of external market is high, which has certain support for the domestic market spot. This week, the mainstream price of pure benzene in the domestic market is around 4300-4500 yuan/ton.

2. Crude Oil: Oil prices showed a sharp downward trend this week. Concerns about slowing economic growth outweighed OPEC-led production cuts, with Brent and WTI crude oil closing lower for four consecutive trading days.

3. Downstream: This week, the price of aniline downstream of pure benzene is stable, with little impact on the price of pure benzene; this week, the price of acetone is stable; the price of maleic anhydride fell at the beginning of the week, by 0.72%.

4. Outside market: Outside market pure benzene prices in Korea and the Far East market are greatly affected by the fall in crude oil prices, and continue to decline. However, the high price of the external market has certain support for the spot market in the domestic market. The offer was suspended on Thursday due to holiday factors.

3. Future Market Forecast

1. Crude oil: Next week, oil prices may continue to fall unless the economy recovers.

2. Domestic market: In June, the factory is expected to start maintenance and load reduction.

Considering comprehensively, the pure benzene market will run steadily or weakly next week.

Price Trend

Butadiene market rebounded in May 2019. Business Association monitoring showed that the price of butadiene at the beginning of the month was 7834 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price of butadiene was 8551 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.15% in the month. Prices fell by 28.45% over the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: This month, due to the load increase of Jihua and Fushun styrene-butadiene rubber plant, the export volume of butadiene in Fushun Petrochemical Company has greatly decreased. In addition, the delayed restart of Sirban and Shandong Huayu plants, the delayed shipment of Jiutai in Inner Mongolia and the unexpected release of supply in the northern market are the main factors to boost the market. Within the month, a small number of high-grade goods in Northeast China were markedly increased in price, and brokers’offer followed. With the rising price, the enthusiasm of merchants to ship goods in the middle and later period of this month has increased. The supply of qualified products of Jiutai and Shenhua is relatively abundant, and the restart of Srbon and Huayu devices, to some extent, has inhibited the space for the market to continue to rise. However, under the support of a small number of high-grade products and strong external offer, the domestic market is mainly consolidated after the rise.

Start-up rate: In May 2019, the overall start-up rate of butadiene industry in China increased slightly to about 70.1%. During the month, Shanghai Petrochemical Company, Silbang Petrochemical Company and Shandong Huayu Plant were restarted one after another, while Jiutai, Inner Mongolia, added 70,000 tons per year of low-load operation of butadiene plant, which boosted the start-up situation. In June, the Lanhua plant is scheduled to restart. Nanjing Chengzhi has an additional 100,000 tons/year plant. Although Liaoyang Petrochemical has a parking overhaul plan, it is expected to start or continue to rebound.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in May 2019, there were 21 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 9 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 12.2% of the monitored commodities in the sector. The top three commodities were epichlorohydrin (11.73%), nitric acid (9.51%) and butadiene (9.15%). There are 48 kinds of products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 31.1% of the monitored products in this sector. The products with the first three declines are hydrochloric acid (-60.56%), sulfuric acid (-42.25%) and TDI (-26.21%). This month’s average rise and fall was -3.9%.

3. Future Market Forecast

In the future, the positive side is that the external market is strong and the downstream market just needs to be supported. Empty side: Jiutai plant load in Inner Mongolia is expected to increase, downstream Shunding industry part of the plant stops, start-up declines, and the northern spot resources are abundant. The recent strong shipping offer from June to July, coupled with a small number of high-grade goods in Northeast China, has brought support to the mentality of some businesses. However, with the restart of some domestic devices and the continuous release of new manufacturers’output, the market supply and demand fundamentals are limited. With the increase of supply in the north, it is expected that there will be some room for a fall in the northern market in June. Eastern China suggested that attention should be paid to the storage pressure in tank farms and the guidance of external information. Although the offer was high for the time being, butadiene analysts from business associations predicted that the market support was weakening with the reboot of Korean plant. They also did not rule out the weakening expectations.

On June 4, the fluorite commodity index was 104.17, unchanged from yesterday, down 18.29% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 111.68% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic fluorite price trend is rising, the average domestic fluorite price is 2968.75 yuan/ton as of the 4th day. Recently, the domestic fluorite plant started normally, the mine and flotation plant in the field started normally, the supply of fluorite in the field is slightly tight, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream is rising recently. For the fluorite market, the price of fluorite market is rising on demand. Recent downstream installation start-up situation is general, fluorite spot supply is normal, terminal downstream pick-up situation improved, resulting in rising market price trend. As of 4 th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2700-3000 yuan/ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2800-3100 yuan/ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2700-3100 yuan/ton, and that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2800-3200 yuan/ton.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in downstream fluorite is rising. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 11550 yuan/ton as of the 4th day. The price fluctuation of hydrofluoric acid market has a certain positive impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant is general. The demand for fluorite is weakened and the price fluctuation of fluorite is running. Recent downstream refrigerant product installations started at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product price trend is stable. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 60%, R22 market facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main manufacturer of bulk water factory offer price is 18500-19500 yuan/ton, but the manufacturer does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipment. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery quotation is general. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. But the price of on-site transactions does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. Generally speaking, the downstream industry is in a general market. In addition, the fluorite market supply is normal and the price of fluorite is rising. Chen Ling, an analyst of business associations, believes that the price of fluorite market may rise slightly.