Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of April 24, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2232 yuan/ton, and the market trend of domestic methanol market was weak.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic methanol market performance is different, both ups and downs are reflected. The overall performance of the methanol market in the Mainland is general, with a partial continuation of the downward trend. The tentative increase of 10 yuan/ton in Shandong and Northern Jiangsu provinces has little impact on the market at present. It is reported that the news of plant restart has increased recently, and most of the operators are short-sighted. On the port market, the crude oil market is strong, supporting methanol futures to a certain extent, and the spot mainly fluctuates with the narrow range of futures. It is expected that the short-term market trend is weak, and we need to continue to pay attention to the device dynamics and futures trend in Northwest China.

In terms of freight, domestic freight for methanol has been continuing to be sorted out recently. The freight rate from the Northern Line of Inner Mongolia to the northern part of Shandong refers to 120-200 yuan/ton, and from the southern line to the northern part of Shandong 130-170 yuan/ton. Part of Shanxi Province is 110-150 yuan/ton to the north of Shandong Province, and reference 120-150 yuan/ton from Guanzhong to the north of Shandong Province and 120-150 yuan/ton to the south of Shandong Province. Qinghai to North Shandong 280-330 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: raw methanol continues to be weak trend; safety supervision continues, formaldehyde construction in the lower reaches of Shandong maintains a low level, formaldehyde market trading performance is general, or will decline with raw material finishing later. Now Linyi is around 1350 yuan/ton, Zibo and its surrounding areas are maintained at 1500-1550 yuan/ton. Acetic acid: The domestic glacial acetic acid market continued to decline. Enterprises have a high intention to deliver goods, and many offers have been lowered to varying degrees to stimulate receipt of goods. However, the supply and demand fundamentals in the field are still poor. Yanzhou Coal Mine, Nanjing BP and Huayi Small Devices will be restarted one after another, and supply will be upgraded. Domestic demand is weak, the impact of security checks in many places, small enterprises to reduce the burden and parking. Qingdao Navy Festival has affected the transportation and downstream enterprises in the central and Eastern Shandong region to basically stagnate, and demand has declined. Exporters have few discussions and little intention to make inquiries. Overall, the market mentality is mainly empty. Dimethyl ether: The market of dimethyl ether is rising steadily and moderately, and the market atmosphere is general. Upgraded by liquefied petroleum gas, manufacturers have a strong mentality, but the downstream market entry enthusiasm is general, and it is expected that tomorrow or stability will be the main part of the firm.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Viewpoint: On the positive side, the supply side: the overhaul of some devices in the field has not ended, and the local supply side is tighter; crude oil: crude oil has shown strong performance in recent days, to some extent, supporting energy futures. On the negative side, inventory: there are more ships coming to port after arrival, so we need to be vigilant about stock accumulation; on the demand side: at the present stage, security supervision has continued to restrict some downstream demand; on the latter stage, maintenance devices have been restored one after another, and the supply side has raised expectations, and the contradiction between supply and demand has become increasingly prominent. Methanol analysts from business associations predict that the overall performance of the domestic methanol market in the short term is relatively weak.

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the market price of cryolite was stable this week, with an average price of 6433.33 yuan/ton. The price fluctuated little, down 3.98% from the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Cryolite prices are basically stable this week, and manufacturers have little intention to adjust prices. As of the 19th, Zibo Kunyu Industry and Trade Cryolite quoted 6500 yuan/ton, Changshu Hongjia Fluorine Co., Ltd. 7200 yuan/ton, Jiaozuo Civilian Benefit Industrial Cryolite quoted 7000 yuan/ton, Zhengzhou Tianrui Cryolite quoted 6500 yuan/ton, Zhengzhou Zerun Energy Chemical Cryolite quoted 5800 yuan/ton.

Industry Chain: The domestic fluorite market price declined this week. The weekend price was 2825 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from 2835 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and up 3.48% from the same period last year. Domestic fluorite prices remained volatile this week, fluorite farms began to operate at normal levels, fluorite flotation units in Hebei Province recently restarted, fluorite supply increased, affected by various factors, fluorite prices slightly lower. Downstream Electrolytic Aluminum: Aluminum prices continued to rise this week, with prices remaining at 13843.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 14070.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, with prices rising by 1.64%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of the cryolite industry of the Business Society Chemical Branch believe that the price of fluorite in the upstream declines and the price of aluminium in the downstream rises concussively. The cryolite market is expected to run smoothly.

According to Imidro, Iran’s main aluminium producer produced 301,033 tons of aluminium as of March 30, down 11% from the previous year.

Among them, Iranian aluminium industry produced 170,912 tons of aluminium, the same period as last year; followed by Hormozal aluminium industry produced 77,326 tons of aluminium, a 27% decline over the same period of last year; Almahdi aluminium industry produced 52,795 tons, a 14% decline over the same period of last year.

Iranian alumina company produced 237,563 tons of alumina last year, down 1% from a year earlier.

According to Metal Bulletin, Iran’s current capacity for aluminum nameplates is 457,000 tons per year, and about 437,000 tons are in operation.

The country plans to increase its annual production of aluminium to 1.5 million tons by 2025.

Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations (the average price of SG5 manufactured by calcium carbide method), domestic PVC quoted 6758 yuan/ton on April 15, and domestic PVC quoted 6725 yuan/ton on April 19. The price of PVC declined by 50 yuan/ton, or 0.48%, and the market of PVC was weak.

II. Cause Analysis

Products: The demand for infrastructure downstream this week is general, the spot market climate of PVC is not warm, the actual volume is low, the inventory of PVC manufacturers is low, there is no inventory pressure. Downstream purchasers mainly wait-and-see attitude, to meet just needed procurement. At the same time, this week’s weak decline in futures led to a weak domestic PVC market this week, as of April 19, the mainstream domestic PVC quotation range of 6600-6900 yuan/ton.

Industry: On April 19, the rubber and plastic index was 743 points, down 2 points from yesterday, down 29.91% from the highest point of 1060 points in the cycle (2012-03-14), and up 28.99% from the lowest point of 576 points on December 21, 2015. (Note: Cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to date) Commodity market consolidation is the main trend of the rubber and plastic industry, a small shock.

3. Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts of business associations believe that the demand for PVC terminals is difficult to make a big improvement in the near future. The overall inventory of the PVC market is at a low level, market transactions are cold, market consolidation is expected to dominate, supply and demand game dominates price trend, and the mainstream price of PVC 5 is expected to be 6500-7000 yuan/ton.

According to the survey data of business associations, the average market price in East China is about 1973.33 yuan per ton. The light soda commodity index on April 17 was 101.20, which was the same as yesterday. It was 14.14% lower than the peak of 117.86 points in the cycle (2017-11-21), and 60.25% higher than the low of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

Domestic soda market is mainly stable, the price is not adjusted for the time being, and enterprises are on the sidelines. The price of soda ash in Hubei is stable for the time being. Light soda ash is exported from 1800 to 1900 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash is delivered to 1900-1950 yuan/ton for execution. Downstream more on-demand goods, market stability is the main. Soda upstream: domestic raw salt market is mainly stable. The downstream two alkali enterprises started normal, stable supply and demand, weak and stable trading. Downstream domestic glass spot market performance is relatively flat, manufacturers are still mainly to increase the return funds. Production enterprises in Shahe area are moving faster than before, and the pressure of stable production and marketing has eased.

Soda analysts of business associations believe that: enterprise inventory continues to be low, slightly tight supply. The downstream demand performance is general, some enterprises have sufficient pre-stocking, and most of them are purchasing on demand at present, which is caused by the conflicting mentality of manufacturers to the rapid rise of soda price. It is expected that the domestic soda market will operate steadily in a multi-dimensional way in the short term, mainly on a wait-and-see basis, and specifically on the downstream market demand.