Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of March 6, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2548 yuan/ton, and the domestic methanol market continued to climb.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic methanol market shows regional trend. At present, port area maintenance period is now linked, spot on demand procurement is the main, with the futures market slightly down 10-15 yuan/ton. Mainland market continued to increase in part, downstream receipt enthusiasm is still acceptable, the overall storage pressure is not high, and part of the equipment inventory and maintenance expectations, supply or support prices; currently, freight rates in some areas have increased, downstream receipt costs have increased slightly. In the short term, the mainland market maintains an upward trend supported by favorable factors, and port areas need to pay attention to futures and inventory changes. In addition, we need to continue to pay attention to spring maintenance and actual downstream delivery.

Freight: Domestic methanol freight has been rising recently, ranging from 20-40 yuan/ton. The freight charges of Inner Mongolia North Line to Lubei increased by 30-40 yuan/ton with reference to 330-380 yuan/ton; the Southern Line to Lubei with reference to 310-350 yuan/ton with an increase of 20-40 yuan/ton; Shanxi with reference to 120-220 yuan/ton in northern Shanxi and 20 yuan/ton in high-end; Guanzhong to northern Shandong with reference to 170-200 yuan/ton with reference to 30 yuan/ton in low-end, 170-230 yuan/ton in southern Shandong and 30 yuan/ton in low-end. Xinjiang refers to about 790 yuan/ton from northern Shandong and 340-360 yuan/ton from Ningxia to northern Shandong.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: formaldehyde market continues to catch up. Influenced by methanol at the raw material end this week, formaldehyde manufacturers in the Mainland continued to push up prices. However, with the convening of the two sessions in Beijing, some areas have intensified the supervision of production safety. Henan and Shandong formaldehyde factories have stopped for some reasons, involving a reduction of more than 4,000 tons per day. Production is expected to resume around mid-late March. Acetic acid: The domestic acetic acid Market surface is temporarily stable, but the market competition continues to intensify. Under the pressure of supplier’s inventory quantity, the discount of negotiation terminal benefits is obvious. However, the acetic acid market continues to decline, there is no new purchase intention downstream, and the market turnover is light. Domestic inventory makes the market tend to be in short supply. In March, some PTA manufacturers overhauled the demand for acetic acid, which is expected to decrease by 0.8W tons, and the situation of oversupply in domestic acetic acid market will continue to intensify. Dimethyl ether: Dimethyl ether prices were consolidated, falling or rising. The methanol market is strong and upward, and the profit of raw material extraction enterprises is not downward. Under the strong support of cost, each region is experimenting a small increase, and the end-users are afraid of rising. At present, each manufacturer is running smoothly without stock accumulation.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperatives Viewpoint: On the positive side, equipment: Mainland based on spring inspection and other factors, and under the influence of environmental protection policy, maintenance enterprises have increased, short-term local supply or contraction; olefins: olefins: good procurement, pre-sale, support raw material methanol prices; environmental protection: Shanxi Province due to environmental protection production restrictions, supply side has tightened; freight: local freight has moved up, the cost has increased slightly. Rise. Inventory: Port area inventory is still high, short-term difficult to digest; downstream demand: under the influence of local environmental protection, some downstream construction is still limited; mentality: recent methanol prices have increased significantly, and some downstream operators’mentality has weakened. Methanol analysts at business associations predict that the short-term domestic methanol market will rise slightly.

ICIS-MRC price report shows that Russian market began to negotiate March’s suspension polyvinyl chloride (SPVC) shipment last week, with manufacturers announcing further price increases on the domestic market.

In 2019, the price of PVC in Russia has doubled and is expected to continue to rise in March this year. Reduced inventories and a lack of imported goods are the main factors contributing to further price increases.

Russian manufacturers announced that the March delivery price would be increased by 1,000 to 2,000 roubles/ton depending on the resin.

The current situation is similar to last year’s trend. Prices of PVC in Russia were rising every month before September last year, and processors were forced to pass on costs to consumers.

Capacity utilization is quite high, exceeding 90%, but excess resin is actively exported. However, it is noteworthy that export sales have begun to decline gradually since February.

Since last year, only one manufacturer in northern China, the main supplier in the past, has exported a limited amount of acetylene-based PVC to Russia, partially offsetting the cost of Russian shipments, and the delivery quota in March has been exhausted.

Even considering that Russian producers plan to raise prices in March, importing acetylene-based PVC from China is not profitable.

Compared with February, some processors do not intend to increase their purchases, while others are seeking to increase their purchases, although demand for products remains weak.

Overall, the Moscow trading price of K64/67 resin CPT remained at 74,000-76,500 roubles/ton in March, of which VAT increased by 1,000-1,500 roubles/ton compared with February, up to 500 tons. For special grades such as K58/70, some manufacturers intend to raise prices by 1500 – 2000 roubles per ton.

On March 3, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 67.80, unchanged from yesterday, down 43.56% from the peak of 120.13 points in the cycle (2012-02-28), and up 40.02% from the low of 48.42 points on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has been slightly lower. The market of phthalic anhydride in eastern China is weak and consolidated. The downstream factories maintain just in need of purchasing. The inventory pressure of factories is persistent and high-end transactions are blocked. The mainstream of on-site neighbouring source negotiation is 6700-7000 yuan/ton, and that of naphthalene source negotiation is 6600-6700 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 6750-7000 yuan/ton, and the market is The price of phthalic anhydride plant in China is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the price of phthalic anhydride is stable.

Recently, the executive price of the upstream product of phthalic anhydride, Sinopec o-phthalic anhydride, is 6800 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of the upstream product is 7100 yuan/ton. The quotation is stable, the stock of the port is at a low level, the actual transaction price of the port is slightly higher, the price of o-phthalic anhydride is rising, the cost of imported o-phthalic phthalic anhydride is rising, the actual transaction price is discussed in detail, DOP price downstream shocks. Recently, in Zhejiang DOP market, merchants’quotations are maintained at 8525-8700 yuan/ton, while downstream prices are at a low level. Demand for upstream phthalic anhydride is limited, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is slightly lower. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will be around 6900 yuan/ton in the later period.

India’s oil refineries processed 2.94 million tons of crude oil in January, an average of 5.2 million barrels of crude oil a day, down 3.6% from a year earlier, according to the latest statistics released by India’s Ministry of Petroleum in New Delhi today, reflecting a partial shutdown of the private refiner, RIL.

Compared with 100% in December last year and 114.6% in January last year, the average utilization rate of Indian refineries in January was 104.4%.

Analysts said the overall decline in crude oil processing business in India in January was mainly due to the shutdown of crude oil distillation and coking units at the Jamnagel Refinery in Gujarat State about four weeks from January 16.

In January, RIL’s domestic-focused refineries started at 79%, compared with 104.5% in the same period last year.

India’s total refining capacity in January increased by 4.3% compared with December last year, as private refinery Nayala Energy operated at full capacity after the full restructuring and restart.

Price trends:

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the price of o-benzene was stable in February 2019. As of February 27, the price of o-xylene was 6 800.00 yuan/ton, which was 6 800.00 yuan/ton compared with the price quoted by O-xylene (OX) on February 1. The price remained stable, rising by 3.23% year on year.

2. Market analysis:

Product analysis:

In February, the inventory of benzene in East China Port was at a low level. As of February 27, the inventory in East China Port was about 15,000 tons, which maintained a low level. Outside quotation of Phenyls increased. On February 27, the external quotation of Phenyls in Europe was $980.00/ton FOB Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp, which was $810/ton higher than that at the beginning of the month. Outside quotation price rose sharply, the cost of imported Phenyls increased, and the momentum of imported Phenyls increased, which had a positive impact on domestic prices of phenyls. 。

Factor analysis of industrial chain:

As can be seen from the above chart, the rise of mixed xylene shocks in February has a greater positive impact on o-xylene. In February, the price of mixed xylene rose by 2.23%, the price of o-xylene remained stable, the rise of mixed xylene and the increase of the motive force of o-xylene rise have a positive impact on the future market of o-xylene.

As can be seen from the chart above, the price of phthalic anhydride fell by 1.42% in February, and the price of o-xylene remained stable. The decline of phthalic anhydride price has some pressure on the decline of the market of o-phthalic anhydride in the future. Phthalic anhydride has a negative market for phthalic anhydride and a downward pressure on phthalic anhydride.

3. Future market forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of o-xylene data from business associations, in February, the quotation of o-xylene external market rose sharply, while the price of imported o-xylene increased, which had a positive impact on o-xylene. The low level of port o-xylene inventory played a positive role in domestic o-xylene market. In the industrial chain, the price of mixed xylene in upstream raw materials rises, the cost of phthalic acid increases, and the market of phthalic anhydride in downstream is favorable to phthalic acid; the market of phthalic anhydride in downstream continues the previous downward trend, the demand for phthalic anhydride decreases, and the market of phthalic acid produces a negative effect on phthalic acid. The overall market of phthalic acid is mixed, and the stock of phthalic acid in the market is too low, Customers need to purchase phthalates at a high price. The actual transaction price of phthalates in the secondary market is about 7200 yuan/ton, which provides greater support for the rise of phthalates in the future. It is expected that the price of phthalates will rise again in the future.