According to RIGZONE, OPEC’s market power will continue to lose until about 2025 with the booming development of shale oil in the United States.

The International Energy Agency says that by 2024, OPEC’s crude oil production capacity will actually shrink as oil production in Iran and Venezuela falls. With the increase of competitors, the annual global demand from OPEC will not return to the level before 2016, that is, before OPEC starts to cut production.

For OPEC, the report may be a thought-provoking data. Over the past two years, OPEC has been limiting production to avoid global oversupply and thus depress oil prices. Although production cuts have basically achieved these goals, they have also stimulated the development of shale oil in the United States, making the country the world’s largest producer of crude oil.

Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, said at CERAWeek Energy Conference in Houston on Monday: “The second wave of the shale gas revolution in the United States is coming. This will shake the flow of international oil and gas trade and have a far-reaching impact on geopolitics.

The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its interim report that energy expansion in the United States will continue and that the United States will account for 70% of global capacity growth by 2024. By then, the agency said, the country could export 9 million barrels of oil a day, exceeding Russia’s export capacity and approaching Saudi Arabia.

As supply growth in the United States will be supplemented by Brazil, Norway and Guyana, the International Energy Agency has sharply increased its forecast for new crude oil from countries outside OPEC, which is expected to reach 3.3 million barrels a day by 2024.

As a result, OPEC’s 14 member countries’estimates of oil demand have been sharply reduced. By 2024, global demand for OPEC crude oil will remain below pre-production levels. The IEA said OPEC would need to maintain its current production limits over the next 10 years.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, as of March 13, the average price of domestic ethanol market was 5383 yuan/ton, and the domestic ethanol market was mainly stable.

II. Market Analysis

Products: The domestic ethanol market is stable. Prices fluctuate slightly in the north and east of Jiangsu Province, and gradually stabilize. The pressure of high-price signing and storage is heard, and the downstream chemical industry is purchased on demand; the inventory pressure of enterprises in the northeast region is not great, and the willingness of enterprises to bid is obvious, while the volume of Heilongjiang Borun is stable; the willingness of enterprises in the south of China to bid is obvious, the downstream demand is light, and the arrival of imports is delayed.

Industry Chain: Maize: Maize supply is sufficient and the market demand for farming is still recovering. In theory, the price of maize will continue to fall. Ethyl acetate: The domestic market of ethyl acetate continues to be weak, with smooth delivery under the low-end price advantage of suppliers, but the market is still bearish on the latter stage of ethyl acetate, and the market is still weak.

3. Future Market Forecast

After the last round of price increase, the downstream digestion of the increase process, the northeast side of raw maize has stopped falling slightly, the cost surface is good, the enterprise inventory is not high, the short-term market is expected to remain strong; the eastern side of China enterprises device driving stable, the supply side rebounded, but the downstream side consumes more pre-inventory, the enterprise is expected to maintain a stable short-term market price due to cost pressures; Regional supply is stable, raw material prices remain stable, downstream demand is light, and the short-term market is expected to remain stable. Ethanol analysts at business associations predict that the domestic ethanol market will remain stable in the near future.

On March 12, the fluorite commodity index of China’s domestic fluorite cities was 102.46 on March 11, which was the same as yesterday. It was 19.63% lower than the cyclical peak of 127.49 points (2019-01-03), and 108.21% higher than the lowest point of 49.21 on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the recent domestic fluorite price fluctuation, as of 12 days, the average domestic fluorite price is 2,920 yuan/ton. Due to the warmer weather, the recent domestic fluorite plant start-up, in-site mines and flotation devices continue to open, the supply of fluorite in-site increased relatively, but the recent downstream market has improved, fluorite market price fluctuations. Recently, the temperature has risen and the start-up rate of fluorite flotation units in the North has risen, but the downstream units have started to operate normally, the fluorite spot supply in the field is sufficient, and the downstream terminal receipts have increased compared with the previous ones, resulting in a temporary stabilization of market prices. As of December 12, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2400-3000 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2700-3100 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2600-3100 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2600-3100 yuan/ton, and the price trend of fluorite was stable.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite is stable. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10 816.67 yuan/ton as of the 12th day. The price fluctuation of hydrofluoric acid market has little effect on the price of fluorite in the upstream. Recent downstream refrigerant product units started to rise, upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand has increased, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product prices temporarily stable. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 70%, R22 refrigerant facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main production enterprise’s bulk water ex-factory offer price rises to 18500-19000 yuan/ton, but there is no bulk water spot in the production enterprise, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. The actual demand side of the market has risen, and the delivery market has risen. The domestic market price of R134a is low, the start-up rate of production enterprises is low, the refrigerant market demand is general, and the manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand, and recently due to the improvement of goods. Generally speaking, the downstream industry has a positive impact, together with the increase of inquiries in the fluorite market, the price of fluorite has a rising trend. Chen Ling, an analyst of business associations, believes that the price of fluorite market may rise slightly. Market price fluctuation

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, propylene oxide is rising actively today. At present, the main price of propylene oxide in the market is around 9800-10200 yuan/ton, up 1.01% compared with last Friday.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: Last week, the propylene oxide market bottomed out and rebounded. Propylene oxide factory shipments improved, low turnover volume, inventory digestion to a low level, strong market intention, and positive increase in the offer. Today, Wanhua East China quotes 10,200 yuan/ton and Shandong 9,900 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The weak market trend of raw propylene and liquid chlorine leads to insufficient cost support for propylene oxide. In addition, the upstream market is strong in the north and weak in the south, and the regional supply-demand contradiction is uneven, which restricts the action of propylene oxide market.

3. Future market forecast:

The propylene oxide Market is expected to grow steadily in the short term.

Price Trend

According to commodity data monitoring, yellow phosphorus prices were basically stable this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 15 825 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, it was 15 850 yuan/ton. The price only rose slightly within the week, the range was 0.16%.

II. Market Analysis

Product: The price of yellow phosphorus is basically stable this week. In Yunnan, yellow phosphorus enterprises started construction slightly, but the overall start-up is still at a low level. Spot supply in yellow phosphorus market is still tight. Individual manufacturers have tentatively adjusted their quotations upwards, and their price-fixing mentality is still in existence. Downstream enterprises have a good mentality and relatively stable purchasing. This week, the yellow phosphorus negotiation area is about 15800 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The upstream phosphate ore market is in the traditional stoppage period, and the mainstream price is about 450 yuan/ton. March is still a dry season. The electricity price of yellow phosphorus enterprises has increased. The price of coke and graphite electrodes has also maintained a high level. The price of yellow phosphorus still has a rising trend. In the short term, the start-up rate of downstream yellow phosphorus enterprises remains stable and the demand is good.

3. Future Market Forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst of Business Society Chemical Branch believes that the overall domestic demand for yellow phosphorus is good, the downstream demand is relatively stable, the demand in the field is still supported, and the price of yellow phosphorus is still on the rise.