Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, 55% of the market of powdered ammonium has been running steadily this week. The average price in domestic market is 2233 yuan/ton, the average price at the beginning of the week is 2233 yuan/ton, and the weekend price is 2233 yuan/ton.

II. Market Analysis

Product: At present, the domestic ammonium market is operating steadily, the price is slightly lower than that of some manufacturers a year ago. At present, the starting rate of some manufacturers is generally low, the market demand is relatively flat, and the turnover of new orders is relatively small. At present, most enterprises are still mainly implementing the pre-order. At present, 55% of the mainstream ammonium powder factory quoted 2250-2450 yuan/ton in Hubei area, the overall stable operation; Henan market maintained stable operation, 55% of the ammonium powder factory quoted 2000 yuan-2200 yuan/ton, started smoothly, part of the factory inventory is temporarily unavailable, do not accept orders; 73% of the industrial ammonium ammonium factory quoted 4000-4200 yuan/ton in Sichuan area, most enterprises normal operation, normal receiving orders, normal delivery.

Industry chain: The price of upstream raw material phosphoric acid market is running steadily as a whole, the volume of new single transaction is general, the phosphate ore continues to resume mining, the supply increases, and the overall inventory is high. The demand for ammonium in downstream compound fertilizer enterprises is weakening, and the volume of new single transaction is less. Some areas are affected by environmental protection and other reasons.

3. Future Market Forecast

Ammonium phosphate analysts believe that the enterprise inventory pressure is still not effectively improved, even if the start-up rate remains low, but still not to a greater extent to ease the pressure. Monoammonium phosphate market may remain stable in the short term.

There is no doubt that one of the major challenges of the 21st century is climate change. For most countries, global warming is a serious threat. However, Russia has found opportunities in terms of climate change and the gradual decline of the Arctic ice sheet.

Moscow’s Arctic strategy aims to provide the Eurasian country with advantages in energy and defense, while promoting the North Sea route as an alternative shipping route.

Russia has huge oil and gas reserves in the Arctic. Technically, the Arctic has 90 billion barrels of oil and 47 trillion cubic meters of natural gas, with Russia accounting for 48 billion barrels and 43 trillion cubic meters, respectively. This is equivalent to 14% of Russia’s total oil reserves and 40% of its total natural gas reserves.

Despite global warming, harsh weather conditions in the Arctic require specialized infrastructure to extract oil and transport it to consumers.

Russia regards the Arctic as a strategic region and is willing to make major investments there to gain its largest and most important share. Moscow supports its claim that the crustal structure of the Romonosov Ridge corresponds to the Russian continental shelf nearby, so Russia has the sole right to exploit most of the Arctic region. To this end, the Arctic research vessel was dispatched to the area in 2007.

According to statistics released by Poland’s Central Bureau of Statistics on the output of major industrial products, in 2018 Poland’s national coal output was 122 million tons, down 3.7% from the same period last year. Among them, hard coal is 63.649 million tons, down 3.3% year-on-year; lignite is 58.571 million tons, down 4.2% year-on-year.

In January 2019, Poland’s coal output was 10.359 million tons, an increase of 2.7% over the same period last year. Among them, 5.298 million tons of hard coal increased by 2.2% and 5.061 million tons of lignite increased by 3.2%.

On March 17, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 97.78, down 0.37 points from yesterday, down 30.37% from the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and up 82.46% from the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the recent domestic hydrofluoric acid market price fluctuation, as of the 18th day, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price is 10775 yuan/ton, the domestic hydrofluoric acid start-up rate is more than 60%, enterprises reflect that the current on-site hydrofluoric acid spot supply is normal, recent on-site goods generally, some enterprises have increased hydrofluoric acid inventory, factory prices remain low, due to recent price shocks in the raw material market, Hydrofluoric acid market price trend is temporarily stable. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 10,000-11,000 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 10,500-11,000 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market prices remain low, spot supply is sufficient, due to the recent upward trend in the raw material market, fluorite price trend is temporarily stable, for hydrofluoric acid has some favorable support, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market shocks.

Recent downstream refrigerant product units started to rise, upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand has increased, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product prices temporarily stable. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 70%, R22 refrigerant facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main production enterprise’s bulk water ex-factory offer price rises to 18500-19000 yuan/ton, but there is no bulk water spot in the production enterprise, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has risen, and the delivery market has risen. The domestic market price of R134a has risen slightly, the start-up rate of production enterprises has remained low, the refrigerant market demand is general, and the manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price has not changed much. Businessmen purchase on demand. Recently, due to the improvement of the goods, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable.

Refrigerant on-site transactions have risen, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate has increased, for the upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand may increase, coupled with the upstream fluorite price has an upward trend, March is the peak season of air conditioning production, the downstream refrigeration industry is expected to rise, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may be slightly higher.

According to the Journal of Oil and Gas, U.S. Energy Intelligence Agency (eia) data show that U.S. crude oil stocks (excluding strategic oil reserves) fell by 3.9 million barrels in the week ending March 8 compared with the previous week.

According to the report, U.S. crude oil stocks were 449.1 million barrels, about 2% higher than the five-year average. In addition, the American Petroleum Institute said its own estimates showed that U.S. crude oil stocks fell by 2.6 million barrels this week.

According to EIA, total U.S. automotive gasoline inventories fell by 4.6 million barrels, about 2% over five years. Last week, finished gasoline stocks and mixed parts stocks both fell. The stock of distillate oil increased by 400,000 barrels, about 1% lower than the average level in the same period of five years.

In the week ending March 8, U.S. refineries produced an average of 16 million barrels a day, about 30,000 barrels higher than the previous week’s average. The start-up rate of the refinery is 87.6%.

Gasoline production declined, averaging 9.7 million barrels a day. Distillate oil production declined, averaging 4.9 million barrels a day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.7 million barrels a day, down 255,000 barrels a day from last week. In the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 6.8 million barrels a day, down 9% from the same period last year. The average import of automobile gasoline is 573,000 barrels per day. Distilled fuel imports averaged 238,000 barrels per day.