Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, DOP price shocks adjusted in March, showing a wavy rise and fall, and the overall price remained stable. As of March 31, the price of DOP in East China was 8300.00 yuan/ton, down 0.40% from 8333.33 yuan/ton in early March, and 2.83% from the same period last year. Overall DOP prices in East China remained stable in March.

II. Market Analysis

Product analysis

DOP market demand was strong in March, but the start-up rate of DOP equipment in plasticizer enterprises remained high. Overall market demand and supply were both booming, market demand was still adequate, while supply was sufficient. Overall plasticizer DOP market was maintained. DOP price rise and fall was mainly related to raw material price. Raw material price decided the rise and fall of DOP price in March.

Analysis of Industrial Chain

As can be seen from the chart above, the price trend of octanol in March is in line with that of DOP. Octanol is the raw material of DOP, and the price rise or fall of octanol determines the trend of DOP. Owing to the breakdown of equipment in octanol enterprises in late March, the supply of octanol was tight, the price of octanol rose, and DOP rebounded with the price of octanol. However, due to the general impact of overhaul equipment output on the overall market output, the market made rapid adjustments, filling the supply gap caused by equipment failure, supply and demand balance, affected by the decline in phthalic anhydride prices, DOP costs fell, DOP prices fell, overall DOP costs fell, the DOP market in the future negative.

3. Future Market Forecast

Bai Jiaxin, a DOP data analyst of business association, thinks that the DOP market demand is good at present, but the DOP equipment start-up rate of plasticizer manufacturer keeps high, the supply is sufficient, and the DOP market is stable; the price of raw material octanol and phthalic anhydride is stable, but the price of phthalic anhydride and octanol fell more in March than that of DOP, DOP still has room to fall, and the short-term price increase caused by equipment overhaul of octanol enterprises in March. The phenomena are difficult to appear in the future market. Octanol prices in the future market are still mainly stable, and DOP costs are falling. The performance of DOP market in the future market is still acceptable, but it is still insufficient to support DOP prices. DOP prices fell slightly in April.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring of Shangshe Phosphate Ore Price, the domestic phosphate ore market has remained stable in the past month. At the beginning of March, the main ex-factory quotation range of the phosphate ore market was 400-500 yuan/ton, and the average price was about 450 yuan/ton. Compared with the market situation after the year, there was no significant fluctuation.

II. Market Quotations

Products: At present, the domestic phosphate ore market remained stable as a whole in March. At the beginning of March, the price of domestic phosphate ore is as follows: 30% grade phosphate ore mainstream factory quoted 410-470 yuan/ton in Guizhou, 30% grade phosphate ore mainstream platform price 480-550 yuan/ton, 34% grade phosphate ore mainstream factory quoted 490 yuan/ton in Hebei, 30% grade phosphate ore mainstream factory quoted 240 yuan/ton without tax, 33% grade phosphate ore mainstream factory quoted 390 yuan/ton without tax, 34% grade phosphate ore mainstream factory quoted 490 yuan/ton without tax, and 30% grade phosphate ore mainstream factory quoted 490 yuan/ton without tax. % Price of 400 yuan/ton of grade phosphorus ore without tax is mainstream. Until the end of March, the market of phosphorus ore is running normally, the downstream demand is gradually warming up, and the domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole shows the trend of stable operation.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business associations phosphate analysts believe that the current downstream demand is still acceptable. Generally speaking, due to the influence of the upstream and downstream markets, the downstream phosphate market prices will remain stable in April, with little fluctuation or a slight increase. The specific trend of the phosphate ore market depends on downstream demand and market supply conditions and other factors.

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the price of lithium carbonate in East China market showed a downward trend in March, and the prices of enterprises in other regions also showed a downward trend. On March 27, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 69800 yuan/ton, which was – 4.9% lower at the end of the month than at the beginning of the month. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate on March 27 was 80200 yuan/ton, which was down – 3.61% at the end of the month compared with the beginning of the month.

From the observation of market changes, the production of lithium carbonate resumed after March, and the production of lithium carbonate increased in some areas, which led to a relative downward trend in prices. In addition, salt lakes and Tianqi have begun to release capacity in an all-round way, which has led to a downward trend in lithium carbonate prices. And some enterprises in order to increase orders, lower prices, but also led to the overall market price down.

At present, there are two levels of differentiation between large enterprises and small and medium enterprises in the lithium carbonate market. The orders of large enterprises are abundant and stable, and the prices remain firm. In order to seize the market price, small and medium-sized enterprises have relatively low preferential prices, so the lithium carbonate trading range is relatively large. The comprehensive price of industrial grade lithium carbonate is between 68 and 85 thousand yuan/ton, and that of battery grade lithium carbonate is between 78 and 85 thousand yuan/ton.

According to business analysts, with the gradual investment of new production capacity, lithium carbonate Market output has gradually increased, and the current market demand is relatively stable, so there is no favorable momentum for future market growth, lithium carbonate prices are expected to continue to be in a low volatility in April.

On March 25, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 107.02, which was the same as yesterday. It was 9.63% lower than the cyclical peak of 118.42 points (2019-01-15), and 38.32% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date)

Recently, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market has maintained a low level. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plants shut down more, and domestic ammonium nitrate plants started less. However, with the warming of the weather recently, the influence of northern air limitation disappeared. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles and the price trend in the field has declined. As of the 25th day, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiations in 1900-2100 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, so now many manufacturers in many areas are forced to limit production or stop production and maintenance to accept environmental protection inspection, the price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is weak.

Recently, the domestic nitric acid price trend is temporarily stable, the market price is 1560 yuan/ton on the 26th day. The stable trend of nitric acid price has little influence on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate has slightly declined. The price trend of upstream raw material liquid ammonia has risen slightly, and the market price of liquid ammonia is 3460 yuan/ton on the 26th day. The rising trend of upstream raw material price has a certain positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market. Ammonium nitrate market price trend slightly lower. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market has slightly declined due to the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the price of raw materials in the upstream market has risen slightly in the near future, but the demand in the downstream is not good, and the market price of ammonium nitrate in the later period is expected to be shocked.

Commodity Name: Dimethyl Ether

Latest price (March 25): 3236.67 yuan/ton

Main points of analysis: Dimethyl ether (Henan) market declined broadly and the trading atmosphere was light. With the coming of off-season, terminal demand is general, downstream replenishment cycle is lengthened, and market entry atmosphere is general. Manufacturers shipment is not smooth, inventory pressure is increasing, weak operation is the main.

Future market forecast: It is expected that there will be a downward trend in the short term.