The PX commodity index on April 7 was 67.20, unchanged from yesterday, down 34.38% from the peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 47.53% from the low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene has been temporarily stable. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant has been running steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant has started 50% of its operation. Fuhai Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant has started a line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant has been overhauled. Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant has been put into operation. Other units have been running steadily for the time being. Due to the increase of domestic market supply of p-xylene, the market for p-xylene has increased. Price trend is stable for the time being. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On April 5, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia rose by US$1/ton. The closing price is US$1022-1022/ton FOB in Korea and US$1039-1041/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The rising price of foreign units has a positive impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is temporarily stable.

On April 5, the price of WTI crude oil in May rose to US$63.08 per barrel, an increase of US$0.98. The price of Brent crude oil in June rose to US$70.34 per barrel, an increase of US$0.94. The rising trend of crude oil price has a positive impact on the price of downstream petrochemical products, and the price trend of paraxylene market is temporarily stable. Recent textile industry volatility, PTA price trend rose on the 8th, the average price of East China bid in the vicinity of 6700-6850 yuan/ton, as of the 8th domestic PTA start-up rate is about 75%, polyester industry start-up rate is about 90%, downstream production and sales rate maintained high, but PTA market price changes little, it is expected that PX market prices will remain stable in the later period.

According to the monitoring of business associations, the market of hydrogen peroxide has stabilized after a sharp rise in March. On April 4, the average price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in China was 1077 yuan/ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the month.

In April, the terminal demand for hydrogen peroxide is gradually stable and the market is still open. On the eve of Qingming Festival, quotations from major domestic manufacturers were stable. Shandong mainstream offer 1000-1100 yuan/ton; Hebei mainstream offer 1100 yuan/ton; Anhui mainstream offer 1100 yuan/ton, the market is stable.

Business Club hydrogen peroxide analysts believe that after the Qingming Festival, hydrogen peroxide market will continue to be stable, mainly with small fluctuations.

On April 2, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 107.02, which was the same as yesterday. It was 9.63% lower than the cycle peak of 118.42 points (2019-01-15), and 38.32% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date)

Recently, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market has maintained a low level. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plants shut down more, and domestic ammonium nitrate plants started less. However, with the warming of the weather recently, the influence of northern air limitation disappeared. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles and the price trend in the field has declined. As of the 3rd day, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiations were in the range of 1900-2100 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, so now many manufacturers in many areas have been forced to limit production or stop production and maintenance for environmental protection inspection, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is weak.

Recent domestic nitric acid price trend is temporarily stable, the market price is 1560 yuan/ton on the 3rd day, the stable trend of nitric acid price has little effect on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate has slightly declined; the price trend of upstream raw material liquid ammonia is temporarily stable, the market price of liquid ammonia is 3460 yuan/ton on the 3rd day, and the temporary stable trend of upstream raw material price has a certain positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market, ammonium nitrate Market price trends remained stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market has slightly declined due to the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market prices rose slightly, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to remain volatile in the later period.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations’list, the domestic adipic acid market ended its rise in February in March, the market price generally fell, and the quotations of dealers continued to fall. By the end of the month, the quotations were generally between 8350 and 8600 yuan/ton. Overall, this month’s decline was 8.08%. Prices have basically fallen to early February levels.

II. Analytical Review

This month, the market has fallen from a high level, the market atmosphere is cool, dealers’sentiment on entering the market is low, adipic acid prices have dropped by 500-700 yuan/ton compared with February, the market has gradually stalled. At present, the downstream market acceptance of high prices is also general, so that the profit margin is widened. Social inventory still shows some pressure, shipment strength has slightly declined compared with last month, there is some room for negotiation.

On the supply side, the supply is relatively abundant, the plant start-up rate is relatively high, this month distributors have been mainly shipped, the enthusiasm of taking goods is not high. On the other hand, the factory had too much stock in the past year, the market is good, many distributors accumulated a large amount of inventory. At present, the market is turning downward sharply, and the mood of market price reduction to inventory spread, resulting in continuous lower prices, market price quotations and prices. The prices of dealers in North China, East China and South China have been reduced to varying degrees. Some areas have declined by 800 yuan/ton, while most areas have maintained a weak position.

On the demand side, the supply is relatively excessive, but the downstream demand lacks substantial improvement. The downstream start-up rate is still slightly insufficient. The start-up rate is about 50%. The upstream adipic acid has not formed a strong boost. The market is still in the depot cycle. In addition, the cost side also makes adipic acid show some pressure. The upstream pure benzene price also fell sharply, falling by more than 8% in March, subject to cost. Facing the loss of profit, adipic acid market was dragged down by the downward trend of pure benzene. According to the monitoring of business associations, the reference price of East China market is about 8350-8500 yuan/ton, and the price of South China is generally between 8400-8600 yuan/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of adipic acid in the branch of business society and chemical industry believe that the current market turbulence is weakening, adipic acid is under the double pressure of excess supply and weak demand, and the market inventory is gradually high, the market is inevitably low. Later, the market may fall into the stage of weak rise and fall. Therefore, business associations believe that adipic acid market is difficult to improve greatly in the short term, and the recent market will be mainly weak in the interval.

On March 31, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 97.78, which was the same as yesterday. It was 30.37% lower than the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and 82.46% higher than the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market has declined slightly in recent years. As of the 1st day, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10575 yuan/ton, and the starting rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid is about 60%. Enterprises reflect that the supply of hydrofluoric acid on the spot is normal at present, the situation of on-site goods is poor in recent years, some enterprises have increased their hydrofluoric acid stocks, and the ex-factory price has slightly declined due to the recent price of raw materials market. Weak, hydrofluoric acid market prices declined. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is around 9700-10500 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is between 1000-10500 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market prices remain low, spot supply is sufficient, due to the recent weakness of the raw material market trend, fluorite price trend slightly lower, has a negative impact on hydrofluoric acid, hydrofluoric acid market price trend slightly declined.

Recent downstream refrigerant products start at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid products prices are temporarily stable. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 60%, R22 market facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main manufacturer of bulk water factory offer price is between 18,000-19,000 yuan/ton, but the manufacturer does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery market has increased. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. Recently, the market price of hydrofluoric acid has been declining due to poor purchasing situation.

Refrigerant field transactions are general, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate remains low, for upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand is normal, but upstream fluorite prices are weak, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may be slightly lower.