First, the price trend

According to the data monitored by the business community (the average price of SG5 for calcium carbide method), the domestic PVC price was 6,920 yuan/ton on August 6, and the price was 7161 yuan/ton on August 6, the overall increase was 3.48%. The PVC price was raised 300- this week. 600 yuan / ton, the market rose strongly.

Second, the cause analysis

Product: Recently, the spot stock of PVC producers is at a low level, while the market circulation is relatively limited, and the supply side inventory pressure is not large. The overall operating rate of the manufacturers still declined. This week, the overall PVC started at 81.53%, down 1.71% from the previous month. Among them, the PVC operating rate of calcium carbide method was 81.46%, down 0.5% from the previous month; the PVC operating rate of ethylene method was 81.93%, down 8.43% from the previous month. After the price rise this week, the downstream wait-and-see attitude is the main, the procurement enthusiasm is not high, the actual transaction volume is general, and it meets the just-needed demand. However, the inventory is low and the market expects demand to increase, resulting in a firm price increase. The overall price of PVC this week is 7100-7380 yuan / ton.

Futures: This week, PVC futures soared, rising strongly against the spot market, traders’ prices rose, producers’ quotations shifted upwards, and prices were actively raised. Some producers waited and watched their attitudes. This week, the PVC market rose mainly.

Raw materials: Recently (August 1st – August 10th) this week, the demand for calcium carbide market is relatively stable. The supply and demand game, the distribution of goods has been unbalanced, and some producers have slightly increased, with an overall increase of 0.15%. Ethylene prices rose slightly, with an overall increase of 2.74%. Affected by upstream raw material support, PVC prices continued to rise, with an overall increase of 4.68%.

The energy index on August 10 was 926 points, up 4 points from yesterday, down 11.22% from the highest point of 1043 points (2012-03-29), up 81.21 from the lowest point of March 01, 2016. %. (Note: Cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to date) The overall market of the rubber and plastics industry has risen sharply.

Third, the market outlook

PVC analysts of the business community believe that this week, the PVC spot market is rising strongly, but the actual transaction of high price is not as expected. It is expected that next week’s market will be digested by this week’s gains, consolidating and consolidating, and trending futures. In the long run, the environmental protection policy is limited, the social inventory is at a low level, and the terminal demand is expected to be good. When Jin Jiuyin 10 arrives, it will be dominated. It is expected that the mainstream price of PVC 5 will be 7050-7500 yuan/ton.

On August 9th, 2018, there were 0 kinds of commodities that rose in the price list of the fluorine chemical industry, and there were 2 kinds of commodities falling, and 3 kinds of commodities with a rise and fall of 0. The main commodities that fell were: aluminum fluoride (dry method) (-0.77%) and cryolite (-0.43%).

On the 9th, the market for fluorine chemical raw materials was temporarily stabilized. The price of raw fluorite was 2670 yuan/ton. Recently, the domestic maintenance equipment was partially restarted. The mines and flotation devices were started. The supply of fluorite in the market increased relatively, and the price of fluorite remained. Weak. The installation of equipment in the southern fluorite market has also improved, the supply of fluorite in the market has increased, and the price of fluorite in the southern region has declined slightly. As of the 9th, the price of fluorite in Inner Mongolia is 2600-2700 yuan/ton, the mainstream of fluorite in Fujian is 2600-2700 yuan/ton, the price of fluorite in Henan is 2600-2700 yuan/ton, and the price of fluorite in Jiangxi is 2600-2700 yuan / ton, fluorite prices fell slightly. In addition, the recent downstream refrigerant industry has a price reduction demand, the price of hydrofluoric acid market has declined. As of the 9th, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10,866.67 yuan / ton. Recently, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market has declined slightly. The domestic hydrofluoric acid operating rate is 7 In the right and left, the company reflects that the current supply of hydrofluoric acid in the market is sufficient. In the near future, the market has weakened. Some manufacturers have seen a slight decline in ex-factory prices. As of now, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid in the southern region is 10,500 yuan/ton. The market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10,500-11,000 yuan / ton, and the market of hydrofluoric acid market has a downward trend. It is expected that the fluorine chemical industry will decline slightly in the later period.

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business community, the spot price of nickel on August 8 was 114,318.75 yuan / ton, up 0.9% from the previous day, rising 3.16% for two consecutive days, up 35.61% year-on-year.

On the macro level, US employment growth slowed in July, and the US dollar fell 0.3% overnight, hitting the biggest drop in a week to help support metal prices. In terms of output: in July, the natural monthly output of electrolytic nickel in China was 12,400 tons, a decrease of 9.69% year-on-year. The cumulative output from January to July was 83,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.30%. In July, the national output of electrolytic nickel increased by 4.72% from June, as the electrolytic nickel resumed profitability, and manufacturers in southern China resumed the increase in the contribution of some electrolytic nickel production and natural days. Although nickel prices have risen more, the price of downstream stainless steel has not increased.

The market outlook: As the US dollar fell, the nickel price rose, but the fundamentals did not change much, and the downstream performance was calm. It is expected that the nickel price will maintain a strong and volatile pattern in the short term.

NEW YORK, August 6 (Reuters) – Copper and other industrial metals continued to sell on Monday, as trade frictions between China and the United States, the world’s two largest economies, have been dragged down.

COMEX’s August copper contract fell 1.2% to close at $2.7210 per pound.

The September copper contract fell 3.20 cents to close at $2.7315 per pound.

Prices are close to the lowest level in more than a year, down about 17% from the four-year high in June. The market is worried that trade protectionism will slow down the Chinese economy and reduce demand for raw materials. China is the world’s largest consumer of goods, with copper demand accounting for about half of the world.

The State Council Tariff Commission announced on Friday evening that it decided to impose a tariff of 25%, 20%, 10%, and 5% on 5,207 tax items originating in the United States, if the US side insisted on adding it. When the tariff measures are implemented, the Chinese side will implement the above-mentioned tariff increase measures.

The US President to London has issued several Twitter slogans on Saturday to praise its tariff strategy has been effective, and will certainly be the US economy to develop again.

Analysts at Commerzbank said in the report: “The Sino-US trade disputes continue to escalate over the weekend and are pushing all metal prices down at the beginning of the new week.”

Zinc and tin in the London Metal Exchange (LME) also fell, and industrial metals are commonly used in manufacturing and construction.

Affected by changes in supply and demand fundamentals, last week (July 30 to August 3), both international oil prices and gold prices fell.

The expectation of increased production in the major oil-producing countries in the week dominated the trend of oil prices, which put oil prices under pressure.

It is reported that Russia and OPEC major oil producers have recently increased crude oil production to compensate for possible supply shortages. In addition, the US Energy Information Administration released a report showing that as of the week of July 27, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.8 million barrels, while the market was originally expected to reduce by 2.8 million barrels.

Baker Hughes said last week that US drillers reduced their active rigs in the second week of the three weeks, reducing two last week and reducing the total number of rigs to 859.

As of August 3, the light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $0.47 to close at $68.49 a barrel, down 0.68%. London Brent crude oil futures for October delivery fell $0.24 to close at $73.21 a barrel, down 0.33%.

Market participants said that the current crude oil market is in a period of severe shocks. As long as Iranian sanctions and global tariffs are uncertain, it is easy to cause the market to rise or fall sharply.

In terms of gold, the trend is still sluggish, and it fell slightly last week, falling in the seventh week of the past eight weeks.

The World Gold Council’s report this week put pressure on the market. The report shows that global gold demand fell by 6% in the first half of this year to the lowest level since 2009.