commodity collective callback yesterday, chemical futures led the declines, plastics, asphalt and PP fell more than 3%, PTA, PVC plastic fell more than 2%, the main contract L1705 contract opened low, fell to lighten up, late accelerated decline, to close the limit. L1705 received 10015, down 525 points, or 4.98%, lighten up 44 thousand hands.
Better than expected OPEC crude oil shocks
Nearly two months to maintain the high international crude oil shocks, the U.S. WTI crude oil to maintain 51-55 dollars / barrel rangebound, Brent crude oil to maintain 54-59 dollars / barrel rangebound. In November 30, 2016, OPEC agreed to cut 1 million 200 thousand barrels a day from the beginning of 2017 January, the International Energy Agency on Friday issued the “oil market monthly report” that in 2017 January, OPEC crude oil 32 million 60 thousand barrels a day in December than in 2016, average daily reduction of 1 million barrels, OPEC production rate commitment scale of 90%, a record high execution rate.
Actively contribute to the production of OPEC crude oil crude oil supply and demand balance. Beck Hughes data show that the oil drilling platform for four consecutive weeks increased, the last 15 weeks for 14 weeks, the total number of active oil rigs hit a new high since October 23, 2015, compared with the lows of May 2016 80% higher than that of income in the international crude oil prices rebounded, the U.S. shale oil production recovery, U.S. shale oil production will continue to rise, the strong growth in oil production is the threat of crude oil production effect, the late rise space limited oil.
Inventory accumulation to be digested
The PE device to maintain high operating rates during the Spring Festival, the majority of the spot market closed circulation influence stock accumulated suspended petrochemical petrochemical stocks accumulated rapidly, nearly two months of imports of PE continued to remain high, the majority of the port container port difficult holiday. Petrochemical enterprises, inventory, inventory, port inventories traders were significantly accumulated. The Lantern Festival factories resume production, purchasing power increase, but the downstream of expensive raw materials there is resentment, inventory digestion is relatively slow.
The domestic PE plastic limit inventory downstream demand season approaching
LLDPE downstream demand is mainly packaging film and plastic film, plastic sheeting industry has obvious seasonal, this is seasonal agricultural production decision. The annual 3-4 month, industrial production is gradually restored, the spring began, plastic film and packaging film demand will continue to increase, the price will be relatively strong. After the Lantern Festival, downstream factories gradually restored, there is resentment to the high price of raw materials, the overall turnover of the poor, but the film demand season hype, demand for the latter is more optimistic about.
Plastic film factory operating rate of plastic limit
In general, shocks, OPEC is better than expected, the international crude oil to maintain high shock. At present, petrochemical stocks and port stocks continued high inventory and slow digestion. Lower demand, the festival gradually returned, started early downstream significantly, but the price of raw materials has resistance.
Especially the northern film is expected to peak demand season, the intensity of replenishment will greatly help to alleviate the social pressure on the stock, the late demand side support. Overall, the current inventory is in a reasonable range, season approaching, plastic downstream demand is gradually restored, the fundamentals of pressure. Plastic yesterday fell sharply, the plastic of the current water level continued to decline in the limited space, can be in the million mark try more than a single intervention.
