Survey: 2017 US economic growth rate or difficult to reach 3%

Reuters survey, with weak data and political concerns to combat confidence, the majority of analysts believe that the US economy grew 20% chance of 20% in the past month has declined.

External expectations of US President Trump’s tax cuts and growth stimulus have diminished. It has been reported that Trump tried to intervene in the investigation of the relationship between the former national security adviser and Russia. Reported that US stocks hit since the beginning of September the largest single-day decline.

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Trump’s political turmoil distracted the attention of Washington policymakers, and the possibility of tax reform and other fiscal policies that spurred the economy were delayed.

According to the latest survey of 100 analysts on May 12-18, US economic growth in the second quarter rebounded to 3.2%. But is expected to show that this may be the best growth rate for the rest of the year 2017, and now the average annual growth rate of the next two years or less than 3%.

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IHS Markit analyst Rebecca Mitchell said, “the first quarter growth downturn, making the US annual economic growth is unlikely to reach 3% of the mark, which requires three consecutive quarters of chain growth rate of more than 5%.

Fifty-three percent of respondents said the US economy had fallen 3 percent in the past month, and 37 percent said the odds were not changed, with only 10 percent saying the chances were higher.

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The general view is from July 2017 to the end of 2018, quarterly economic growth of 2.4-2.5%.

Even if the inflation forecast slightly lower than last month.

The core PCE price index expected in the second quarter of 2018 will not reach the Fed 2% target. Core PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation target.

These forecasts not only highlight the gap between the 3% expected US economic growth and the actual economic performance, but also the challenges that Trump faces.

“We have always believed that the economic growth of 20% in 2017 is unlikely, with weak economic data in the first quarter, and the prospect of stimulating fiscal policy in 2017 seems to have supported the forecast,” said Bank of the West, chief analyst Scott Anderson said.

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The report predicts that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in the second quarter and raise interest rates again in the third quarter, bringing the federal funds rate range to 1.25-1.50%.

When asked what would make the Fed raise again in 2017, the plan was blocked, and some analysts said they thought it might be the stock market crash.

Some people point out that the differences between confidence and official economic data can also cause the Fed to do anything.

But most analysts believe that the core inflation is the main reason for the fall.

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China’s largest environmental protection stage inspectors’results arise

The 23 inspection teams sent by Environmental Protection Department have completed the second round of intensive supervision, the inspection results show that 66.2% of enterprises have environmental problems. In addition, the seven inspectors of the third batch of central environmental protection inspectors in seven provinces and municipalities have completed the first phase of the provincial level inspectorate task and formally entered the supervisory stage. In seven provinces and cities side of the inspection side of the improvement, has been responsible for 1278 people. At this point, the central environmental inspectors have lasted more than a year, a wide range , long time and strongly force, known as the largest scale action directly organized by state government in China’s environmental history. (The following information from the economic reference)

Stage inspection results look forward to the recent announcement, the result of the largest action in the history is arising.

With the starting of the third batch of central government environmental protection inspection , the central environmental inspectors have covered 23 provinces, the results of the inspectors have also recently announced. State Environmental Protection Inspectorate Office announced on May 11, seven inspection teams of the third batch of central environmental protection inspection in seven provinces and municipalities has completed the first phase of the provincial level inspection task, officially entered the sinking stage. They inspect while correcting. 1278 persons has been punished. It is reported that the third batch of seven central environmental protection inspection team from April 24 to April 28 onwards in Tianjin, Shanxi, Liaoning, Anhui, Fujian, Hunan, Guizhou and other provinces (cities) to implement inspectors stationed. At this point, the central environmental inspection has covered 23 provinces.

Till May 9, seven inspection teams received a total of 14479 cases, including 1431 in Tianjin, 1236 in Shanxi, 2537 in Liaoning, 1587 in Anhui, 2847 in Fujian, 3037 in Hunan and 1804 in Guizhou. After calculating, the Inspection teams hava transferred 9194 case to the inspected area .

So far, this is known as China’s environmental protection ever, the largest level of direct action at the national level has been going on for more than a year.

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Into May, the local air pollution situation has improved, after a “history of the largest inspector” has been quickly attack. In the beginning of April this year, the Ministry of Environmental Protection from the country deployed 5600 environmental law enforcement officers, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei air pollution transmission channel to determine the situation, the situation is not in place in some areas, “2 + 26″ city to carry out a one-year intensive control of air pollution control. To May 7, the Inspectorate group of inspectors 8447 enterprises (units), found 5594 enterprises exist environmental problems, accounting for about 66.2% of the total inspection.

A number of grassroots cadres said that the current work of the central environmental inspectors has been normalized, look forward to environmental protection inspectors in the future to gradually institutionalized operation to reduce the impact of human factors, so that the problem is the implementation and rectification, but also summed up the experience, Inspectors procedures and norms rose to the level of regulation. In addition, we should further strengthen the construction of environmental protection system, cultivate citizens’ environmental awareness, strengthen enterprises and institutions, social organizations, organizations and other initiatives to participate in environmental protection, highlighting the implementation of the incentive mechanism for environmental protection inspectors.

Environmental protection system “down to change” pilot next month will be fully rolled out next year

China ‘s environmental management system reform is advancing in depth. Recently, the provincial environmental monitoring agencies to monitor the implementation of vertical management system reform pilot will be completed by the end of June, the current 12 pilot provinces and cities, Hebei and Chongqing and other places have been officially issued the implementation of the program and supporting policies, by 2020, The following environmental protection departments will operate in accordance with the new system.

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Environmental Protection Department of the local environmental protection vertical management work group office director Ye Min said, “the whole ‘down to change’ work is being advanced, including Hebei, Chongqing, ‘down to change’ program and the results have been in the assessment stage. The next step, according to the central deployment time Arrangements, local environmental protection vertical reform will be all out next year. ”

In September 2016, the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the Guiding Opinions on the Pilot Project on the Reform of the Vertical Management System for Surveillance and Enforcement of Environmental Protection Institutions under the Provincial Environment. Opinions, the provincial environmental protection departments after the reform of the province (autonomous regions and municipalities) environmental protection work to implement a unified supervision and management, in the province (autonomous regions and municipalities) within the unified planning and construction of environmental monitoring network, the city and county level environmental protection departments Environmental monitoring functions received by the provincial environmental protection departments, through the city and county areas and other forms of implementation of environmental monitoring, the implementation of vertical management, but also to develop and implement a list of local environmental responsibility, a clear local party committee and government and its related departments Responsibility for protection.

Subsequently, Hebei, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Fujian, Shandong, Henan, Hubei, Guangdong, Chongqing, Guizhou, Shaanxi, Qinghai and other 12 provinces and cities have put forward the pilot application and entered the reform stage.

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Specific aspects of the pilot, learned from Hebei Province, the province has basically completed the vertical management of environmental protection reform at the provincial level, environmental management has been in accordance with the new system of formal operation. It is reported that Hebei 6 Environmental Ombudsman’s Office, 11 city environmental monitoring center in the resident was formally established. After the reform, the environmental monitoring function of Hebei will be exercised by the provincial environmental protection department, and the six environmental ombudsman offices will be managed by the office. Chongqing City in the “vertical change” process, has introduced a number of policies, a clear prosecution, public security organs and environmental protection administrative departments in the process of environmental resources in the process of functional responsibilities, improve the administrative law enforcement and criminal justice convergence mechanism The

In the view of Ye Min, the vertical management system is the basic system of environmental governance, so “vertical change” is “chassis” system reform. He believes that the guidance is to implement the ecological civilization construction and green development requirements of the new initiatives, is conducive to promoting the improvement of environmental quality as the core of environmental management transformation, is conducive to speed up the filling of the ecological environment short board.

Ma Yong, deputy secretary general of the China Foundation for Biodiversity Conservation and Green Development, said that through the vertical management system can overcome the local protectionism, while environmental resources and technical support can be more solid.

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Some experts said that the reform is aimed at China’s current environmental regulatory system there are some of the more prominent issues, including environmental protection departments in the grassroots level is often subject to local protectionist intervention and difficult to place, and the relevant departments of environmental responsibility division is not Clearly, the environmental protection departments often appear for the government departments to shoulder the responsibility of the overlap between the various departments or the phenomenon of responsibility blank. “To distinguish between party and government and environmental protection department responsibility, in the past any environmental incidents and problems, will frequently hit the environmental protection department to go, causing a lot of problems, but also on the grassroots environmental protection departments caused great pressure.” Ma Yong said.

It is worth mentioning that environmental protection “down to change” a key task is to include environmental law enforcement agencies in the government administrative law enforcement department sequence. In this regard, the Environmental Protection Department of Environmental Supervision, Tian Weiyong deep feeling, he said, “before the environmental protection department staff to wear clothes is not uniform, ‘wear off, off wear.’ Many cases of obstruction of law enforcement is because there is no The reasons for the uniform dress. The past law enforcement there is a little guerrilla feeling, not into a climate, wear their own clothes to the enterprise to go, people certainly do not attach importance to now uniform clothing, we see this is the ‘regular army’.

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In accordance with the requirements of the reform of the request, the pilot provinces to complete the pilot work to form a self-assessment report, the Ministry of Environmental Protection, the central organization of the pilot work to sum up the assessment, proposed supporting policies and work arrangements recommendations, and finally reported to the Central Committee, the State Council approved the full Reform work. Other provinces not included in the pilot to do a good job investigating thoroughly, policy research and other preparatory work, organize the implementation of reform and implementation of the program, and strive to the end of June 2018 before the completion of the provincial environmental protection management system adjustment work. On this basis, the final to ensure that the “three five” period fully completed the environmental protection agencies to monitor the implementation of vertical management system reform task, by 2020 the following provincial environmental protection departments in accordance with the new system and efficient operation.

“National implementation is certainly the general trend, and now to consider is the top design issues, we must sum up the work of the pilot provinces and cities in time, especially the experience and lessons.” Ma Yong said, especially the “vertical change” in the process of staffing, personnel Treatment, job division of responsibilities and other issues, must be reflected in the top design.

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Fluorescent mushrooms help experts to synthesize artificial fluorescein

A fluorescent mushroom distributed in Brazil will emit green fluorescence in the dark, and Russian and Brazilian researchers are expected to use other biochemical experiments by analyzing the luminescence mechanism of this mushroom and synthesizing fluorescein molecules.

In some parts of Brazil under the palm trees there is a local people commonly known as “coconut flower” fluorescent mushrooms. In the sun this mushroom is yellow and white color, but in the night or dark cave it can emit green fluorescence, attracting insects to help spread the spore propagation. How is this mushroom glowing? The Institute of Bioorganic Chemistry of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Brazilian colleagues have studied this.

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Researchers reported in the new issue of “Progress in Science” that they analyzed the cells of the mushroom, extracted the proteins and fluorescein molecules associated with the emission of fluorescence, and analyzed these substances by gas chromatography and mass spectrometry. Under the chemical changes that occur. It was eventually found that some of the protein molecules in the mushroom cells used the intracellular oxygen and adenosine triphosphate to oxidize their own specific fluorescein to emit green light.

The researchers also found that the above-mentioned fluorescein molecules consist of two important fragments. They mimicked the structure of these two fragments and synthesized six kinds of fluorescein molecular fragments with chemical fluorescent substrate-alfa pyrone and used them to replace the natural fluorescein molecular fragments of mushrooms one by one. It was found that there were five artificial fragments Natural fragments collaborate to produce orange, yellow, light green, blue, and light blue in the absence of mushrooms, individually cultured.

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Researchers say the study has made them not only aware of the mechanism by which fluorescent mushrooms emit light in the dark, but also have a way to control their fluorescent color. It is expected that the cells will emit light in animal and plant cell experiments in order to observe their biochemistry Variety. In addition, the team is also prepared to modify the fluorescent mushroom gene, so that the synthesis of all the luciferin molecular fragments, in order to cultivate the colorful “rainbow” mushrooms.

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Industrialization process is slow, to speed up the development and utilization of coalbed methane is imminent

From the theoretical level, China’s coalbed methane industry has become more mature, but the actual development and utilization is in the initial stage, the industrialization process is slow, still subject to mineral rights overlap, the lack of standards and other constraints. In view of the development and utilization of coalbed methane is of great significance, “13th Five-Year” period to speed up the development and utilization of coalbed methane is imminent.

Coalbed methane is a kind of unconventional natural gas associated with coal, also known as gas gas, the main component is methane (methane content> 85%). Reasonable development and utilization of coalbed methane, to improve China’s energy structure, reduce greenhouse effect, reduce the dependence on oil imports and so on is of great significance.

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Coalbed methane

The development and utilization of coalbed methane not only help to solve the environmental pollution, but also to achieve the use of resources, with energy efficiency, safety benefits, environmental benefits and so on.

In particular, in the energy efficiency, coalbed methane clean, convenient, cheap, high calorific value; in terms of safety benefits, to prevent gas accidents; in environmental benefits, coal-bed methane does not produce harmful gases, reducing environmental hazards.

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China is the world’s third largest coalbed methane resource, second only to Canada and Russia. It is estimated that China’s coalbed methane resources in about 30 ~ 36.8 trillion m3 or so, mainly in the Ordos, Jinzhongnan region, Turpan-Hami basin, Junggar Basin and so on.

Although the coalbed methane is rich in resources, but the actual development and utilization is lagging behind, according to the prospective industry research institute released the “China CBM industry economic evaluation and investment strategic planning analysis report” statistics, in 2014, China’s total annual output of coalbed methane is about 118 Billion m3, of which the ground pumping capacity of only 2.3 billion m3.

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China’s coalbed methane not only the development of limited strength, and direct commercial utilization is low. This is mainly because the use of coalbed methane is the nearest consumption model, and focused on civilian, gas power generation, industrial raw materials and other fields.

On the other hand, the development and utilization of coalbed methane technical barriers, but also lead to industrial development is often blocked one of the important reasons. In the technology can not be completely resolved before the problem, the development and utilization of coalbed methane is still difficult to make great progress.

However, at home and abroad are increasing the development and utilization of coalbed methane technology research, such as has been announced the efficient production technology, coalbed methane catalytic cracking technology. With the technological progress, the development and utilization of coalbed methane is expected to be on the steps.

In general, coalbed methane has a bright future, but the development of more factors, slow progress in industrialization. To this end, China in the 13th Five-Year Plan, will accelerate the development of coalbed methane on a prominent position, and made the 2020 coalbed methane production of 40 billion cubic meters of the target.

The future with the specific implementation of the relevant policies, coalbed gas pipeline network to achieve a wide range of coverage, as well as technological innovation to bring the cost of decline, coalbed methane is expected to move towards rapid development.

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Crude oil prices hit a nearly five-month low China’s refined oil prices are expected to decline

May 11 at 24 o’clock, China will usher in the ninth time during the refined oil price adjustment window, the industry forecast the current round of domestic refined oil prices are expected to usher in a more substantial reduction.

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Oil production accounted for more than one-third of the world’s OPEC in November 30, 2016 reached a cut agreement. In December the same year, led by Russia more than a dozen non-OPEC oil producers announced the reduction of production. These two production agreements have been implemented since 2017, the implementation period of 6 months.

Today, the implementation of production is nearing completion, but due to the strong recovery of US shale oil, the first half of this year, the situation of global crude oil oversupply did not show significant improvement.

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Since mid-April, international oil prices have fallen by more than 13%. May 5, the international oil prices fell to around 45 US dollars a barrel, back to the end of November last year, the level of production before the release.

CICC Energy researcher Guo Zhaohui said the current market for OPEC meeting is expected to pessimistic. Although the early Saudi oil and other oil producers will extend the terms of the agreement, but the market is expected to cut the size of investors may shrink. In the last two weeks, the New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil futures speculative fund net positions fell by 16%.

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Recent US disclosure of the data show that shale oil production activity, but also exacerbated the market oversight of crude oil concerns. US oil service company Baker Hughes released data show that as of 5 week, the number of US oil active drilling has increased for 16 weeks, refresh the April 2015 high since. In addition, the US crude oil production and crude oil inventories also reached a record high.

International energy research firm An Xunsi China analysis, the current price adjustment cycle, Libya two oil field to restart, the market is expected to oil supply is still excess, if the current crude oil prices, the current round of steam and diesel prices down about 245 Yuan, it is likely to hit the largest decline in the year.

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This year, China has gone through eight rounds of refined oil price cycle, which three times raised, three times down, twice stranded, steam, diesel prices were down 65 yuan per ton. The largest decline in the year occurred at 24:00 on March 28, steam, diesel prices were down 230 yuan per ton and 220 yuan.

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