According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of cryolite slightly decreased in March. As of March 31st, the average market price in Henan Province was 7550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared to the price of 7600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 0.66%.

In March, the domestic ice crystal market saw a downward trend, with major ice crystal enterprises experiencing significant stability and minor fluctuations. The strong rise in raw material prices in March has increased the cost pressure on the cryolite market. Most companies have operated with firm quotations, while some companies have been affected by demand, resulting in poor factory shipments and a slight decrease in cryolite prices. Downstream investors are resistant to high priced ice crystals, and follow up on demand when entering the market. Market transactions are negotiated for shipment, and the trading atmosphere on the market is weak. Insufficient demand support has suppressed the rise in ice crystal prices.

Upstream fluorite showed a strong upward trend in March, with prices rising. As of March 31st, the average price of fluorite was 3431.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.43% compared to the beginning of the month price of 3350.00 yuan/ton. The game situation in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and upstream mining is tense. Backward mines will continue to be phased out. In addition, recent national departments have issued price inquiries to rectify fluorite mines, and mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements. The difficulty of starting fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the progress of fluorite enterprises in resuming work and production. The price trend of fluorite has increased.

Market forecast: In the near future, the raw materials of cryolite have risen, the cost of cryolite has increased, and the market mentality has had a positive impact. However, downstream resistance to high priced cryolite still exists, with limited entry into the market for purchasing. The market trading atmosphere is light, and under the game of supply and demand, it is expected that the cryolite market will remain stagnant and consolidate in the later stage. In the future, attention will be paid to upstream price changes and downstream follow-up.

Aluminum prices fluctuated and rose in March

Aluminum prices fluctuated and rose in March. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market on March 29, 2024 was 19490 yuan/ton, which was 18970 yuan/ton higher than the average market price at the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 2.74%.

Aluminum prices may continue to fluctuate strongly in April

The aluminum price in April may continue to fluctuate strongly, for the following reasons:

The production of electrolytic aluminum is relatively stable. Although there is an expectation of increasing production in Yunnan, downstream consumption is gradually entering the peak season, and orders continue to recover. At present, social inventory is at a new low in the same period in recent years, and the trend of accumulated inventory is tending to end. As of March 28th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the domestic mainstream market was 910000 tons, which is a cumulative inventory of 95000 tons compared to 815000 tons of electrolytic aluminum in the domestic mainstream market on February 29th; Compared to March 25th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the mainstream domestic market was 913000 tons, with a destocking of 3000 tons. In the near future, the social inventory of aluminum ingots may enter a state of destocking, which will provide certain support for aluminum prices.

The international macro sentiment remains strong, with the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut and the strengthening of overseas monetary easing expectations. The non-ferrous sector has certain financial attributes, which provides positive support for aluminum prices. The final consumer confidence index for March in the Eurozone was -14.9, which met expectations and slightly increased from the previous value of -15.5; The industrial prosperity index for March was -8.8, slightly higher than the expected -9.0 and the previous value of -9.5; The economic prosperity index is 96.3, expected to be 96.3, with a previous value of 95.4. The overall economic prosperity of the Eurozone has recovered, but most indicators are still in negative ranges. Recently, the European Central Bank has taken action to ensure that the economy does not fall into recession, and has begun to release some dovish signals.

It is expected that aluminum prices may enter a volatile and strong operating trend in the short term.

Aluminum fluoride prices rebounded and rose in March

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 27th, the domestic quotation for aluminum fluoride was 10425 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.51% compared to the price of aluminum fluoride on March 10th, which was 9975 yuan/ton; Compared to March 1st, the price of aluminum fluoride increased by 2.71% to 10150 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials have stopped falling and rebounded, and the cost of aluminum fluoride has stopped falling and risen in March. Aluminum fluoride enterprises have started stable operations in March, and the supply of aluminum fluoride is sufficient. Downstream electrolytic aluminum manufacturers have resumed production more, and the demand for aluminum fluoride is expected to rebound. The price of aluminum fluoride has stopped falling and risen in March.

There is an upward trend in raw material costs

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 27th, the price of fluorite was 3356.25 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.75% compared to the price of 3350 yuan/ton on March 1st. As of March 27th, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 10283.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.66% compared to the price of aluminum fluoride on February 29th, which was 10016.67 yuan/ton; Compared to March 1st, the price of aluminum fluoride at 9966.67 yuan/ton increased by 3.18%. In March, the construction of fluorite mines was poor, and the supply of fluorite remained tight. The price support for fluorite still exists, and emerging downstream markets such as new energy have rebounded. With the continuous resumption of work and production of fluorite, the supply of fluorite has increased, and the support for the price increase of fluorite is limited, resulting in a slight increase in fluorite prices. Downstream refrigerant prices have rebounded and risen, leading to an increase in demand for hydrofluoric acid and an increase in hydrofluoric acid prices. The prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid have risen, while the cost of aluminum fluoride has increased.

More electrolytic aluminum production resumption

Recently, the amount of electricity transmitted from outside Yunnan Province has decreased, and the supply of wind, solar, and other electricity within the province has been relatively good. There is an surplus of electricity within the province, and Yunnan Province will release 800000 kilowatts of load electricity in the near future for the resumption of production of electrolytic aluminum enterprises within the province, equivalent to an annual electrolytic aluminum production capacity of about 520000 tons; Guizhou Anshun Aluminum Industry’s production capacity of 130000 tons, which has been suspended due to technological upgrades, may resume production by the end of March; A certain aluminum plant in Sichuan (with a built production capacity of 125000 tons/year) plans to start tank shutdown and technical renovation on March 10th, and is expected to complete the shutdown by the end of the month. Prior to this technical renovation, the company’s operating capacity was about 65000 tons, and it is expected to complete all capacity technical renovations in September. Overall, domestic electrolytic aluminum manufacturers are expected to increase their production. The production of electrolytic aluminum enterprises has increased, and the demand for aluminum fluoride has increased, providing greater support for the rise in aluminum fluoride.

Market Overview and Forecast

An analyst from Shengyishe Aluminum Fluoride Industry believes that in terms of raw materials, demand has rebounded, prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid have risen, and the cost of aluminum fluoride has risen; In terms of demand, electrolytic aluminum manufacturers are resuming production more frequently, and the expected output of electrolytic aluminum enterprises is increasing. The demand for aluminum fluoride is increasing, and the support for the rise of aluminum fluoride is increasing. In the future, as the cost of aluminum fluoride increases and demand increases, it is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will fluctuate and rise.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic tetrachloroethylene market saw a narrow increase this week (3.18-3.24). The average market price at the beginning of the week is 5050 yuan/ton, and the average weekend price is 5087 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.74%.

2、 Analysis and Review

Within this week, large tetrachloroethylene factories slightly increased their prices. According to customs data, the export volume of tetrachloroethylene in February was 1155.6 tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 14.5%, and there were no imports. The market supply was tight, and distributors closely followed the increase of large factories. The mainstream quotation for downstream refrigerant R125 is 45000-48000 yuan/ton, and the manufacturer’s attitude of price support is maintained, and the supply-demand game continues.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s tetrachloroethylene analyst believes that with the support of supply and demand, it is expected that the price of vinyl chloride will continue to rise this Thursday.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the spot market price of PVC has increased this week. The average domestic PVC price last Friday was 5566 yuan/ton, and this Friday’s average price was 5654 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.58% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

The spot market price of PVC has risen this week. From Monday to Thursday, PVC futures market prices are currently rising, boosting confidence in the spot market. Spot manufacturers are following up on price increases, but downstream procurement is relatively cautious. On Friday, the futures market shifted from rising to falling, and the atmosphere in the spot market weakened accordingly. The market was cautious and cautious, with some downstream companies placing orders at low prices that needed to be replenished. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 type carbide materials in China is mostly around 5470-5850 yuan/ton.

On March 21st, international crude oil futures fell. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $81.07 per barrel, a decrease of $0.20 or 0.3%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $85.24 per barrel, a decrease of $0.14 or 0.2%.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to data monitored by Business Society, the prices of calcium carbide manufacturers will increase after the year. Last Friday, the average price of domestic calcium carbide was 2916.67 yuan/ton, and this Friday’s average price was 2983.33 yuan/ton, with a 2.29% increase in prices during the week. With the recovery of logistics transportation, enterprise shipments have improved, downstream procurement has actively improved, inventory has decreased, and market prices have increased.

3、 Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts from Business Society believe that the PVC spot market is on the rise this week. Upstream calcium carbide prices have increased, and cost support is still acceptable. Affected by the decline in external oil prices on the 21st, PVC futures prices turned from rising to falling on Friday, and the futures market returned to a weak position. The performance of futures has suppressed confidence in the spot market, and it is expected that the PVC spot market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. Close attention will be paid to changes in the news.