According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, industrial grade lithium carbonate and battery grade lithium carbonate still maintained a downward trend this week. On January 11, 2024, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 91600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.93% compared to the average price of 93400 yuan/ton on January 7. On January 11th, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 101000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.94% compared to the average price of 103000 yuan/ton on January 7th.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that the price of lithium carbonate continued to fluctuate and decline this week, with a relatively gentle price adjustment, and most companies’ quotations remained relatively stable. In terms of supply, the number of lithium salt plant maintenance enterprises in the current market is constantly increasing, and the supply of lithium carbonate in the market has decreased. However, lithium salt companies that purchase lithium concentrate and sell spot lithium carbonate are still in a loss making state, and lithium salt companies in the market are more inclined to sell spot scattered orders at a higher price, resulting in a slowdown in the decline in lithium carbonate prices.

In terms of demand, most downstream enterprises such as positive electrode materials still have a low acceptance capacity for high priced lithium carbonate. The phenomenon of positive electrode material enterprises inquiring about prices in the market has increased, and some positive electrode material enterprises have started to accept lower priced lithium carbonate. At present, the overall focus of the market is still showing a downward trend, and market transactions are extremely light. There is a significant price difference between buyers and sellers, and actual transactions are very few.

The price of lithium hydroxide has slightly declined, and the upstream spodumene concentrate market has recently seen a slight decline. Coupled with the weak operation of the lithium carbonate market, there is insufficient cost support, and downstream demand for high nickel materials is slow to follow up. The market is mainly dominated by long-term orders, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market.

The downstream price of lithium iron phosphate is weak and downward, and the overall market negotiation atmosphere is cold. The downstream demand for lithium iron phosphate is insufficient, inventory is running at a high level, supply pressure still exists, market consumption is slow, manufacturers are operating under pressure, and a pessimistic attitude is obvious. Downstream replenishment is mainly based on demand, with main supply contract customers and overcapacity. The lithium battery market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.

In terms of futures, on January 11, 2024, the opening price of the LC2407 main contract was 984000 yuan/ton, the highest price was 105000 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 104700 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 6.4%. The transaction volume was 214400 lots and the position was 157286 lots.

Lithium carbonate analysts from Business Society believe that currently, lithium salt companies generally offer stable prices, and downstream wait-and-see sentiment is still strong. The overall market transactions are weak, and the futures market has recently entered a volatile market, with spot prices mostly following the trend of consolidation. With the continuous weakening of the demand side, it is expected that the short-term spot price of lithium carbonate will continue to operate weakly and steadily.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of January 10, 2024, the reference market price of domestically produced industrial grade propylene glycol was 8166 yuan/ton. Compared with January 5 (reference price of propylene glycol was 8233 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.81%; Compared to January 1st (reference price of propylene glycol at 8300 yuan/ton), the price has been reduced by 134 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.61%.

From the data monitoring chart of Business Society, it can be seen that as we enter this week, the overall domestic propylene glycol market continues to show a slight downward trend. Part of the equipment in the propylene glycol field has started operation, and the overall supply of propylene glycol has increased. The pressure on the supply side of propylene glycol in the field has increased, and downstream demand for propylene glycol is weak, with average new orders. The supply and demand transmission of propylene glycol is slow. Therefore, this week, some propylene glycol factories will continue to narrow down the shipment price of propylene glycol by 100 yuan/ton. As of January 10th, the domestic propylene glycol market price is around 8100-8200 yuan/ton.

Market analysis of propylene glycol

At present, the trading atmosphere of propylene glycol on the market is relatively light, and downstream users mainly purchase according to demand. There is a certain wait-and-see sentiment in the market. The propylene glycol data analyst of Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market will mainly adjust and operate within a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the TDI price in East China has slightly decreased this week. On January 7th, the average market price in East China was 16700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to the price of 16800 yuan/ton on January 1st, a decrease of 0.60%.

This week, the domestic TDI market is observing and consolidating, with slight price fluctuations. The filling of factory spot goods is slow, and suppliers continue to support the market. The mentality of the trade market is not good, and holders are actively shipping, with limited actual transactions. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high, and there is a strong demand for purchasing when entering the market, which weakens the support for TDI and leads to a slight decline in market prices.

The upstream toluene market is relatively strong and rising. On January 7th, the domestic average price of toluene was around 6680 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.67% compared to the price of 6570 yuan/ton on January 1st. The international crude oil price has rebounded compared to the previous period, with support from the cost and external prices of toluene. The price of toluene in Asia has rebounded, while domestic production has slightly decreased, easing the pressure on toluene supply. In terms of demand, downstream demand for toluene is limited, and support for toluene is limited. The toluene market has slightly increased.

In the future market analysis, TDI data analysts from Business Society believe that the domestic TDI spot filling is slow, and holders are observing the guidance of supplier information, actively shipping, and downstream buyers follow up on demand. The market supply and demand performance is stagnant, and TDI is in a dilemma of rising and falling. From the perspective of the news, TDI major factories may adjust prices on a weekly basis, which may affect the mentality of traders. Considering that there is stock demand in the downstream before the holiday, holders have a strong intention to rise. It is expected that the TDI market may be stronger in the later stage, and specific attention will be paid to downstream buyers and the release of market news from suppliers.

Recent price trends of tetrahydrofuran

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of tetrahydrofuran is temporarily stable this week. The average price of tetrahydrofuran in the mainstream domestic market this week was 12925 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 0.66% over the weekend.

Upstream support is average, downstream demand weakens

From the supply side perspective, mainstream domestic tetrahydrofuran distributors have temporarily stabilized their quotations this week, with average inventory levels.

From the upstream raw material market of tetrahydrofuran, the 1,4-butanediol market saw a slight decline this week, with prices dropping from 9535.71 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9514.29 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.22%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.25% at the end of the week. The market situation of maleic anhydride remained stable this week, with a price of 7860 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, the price increased by 14.33% year-on-year. Overall, the upstream raw material market prices have slightly declined, with insufficient cost support, and the supply and demand side has had a negative impact on the price of tetrahydrofuran.

From the downstream market of tetrahydrofuran, the price of spandex in the market has slightly decreased this week. The price of spandex dropped from 32125 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 32000 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 0.39%, and the weekend price fell 9.54% year-on-year. Downstream spandex market prices have slightly declined, and downstream customers are less proactive in purchasing tetrahydrofuran.

Future prospects

In mid to late January, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. The upstream maleic anhydride market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream spandex market has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened. Business Society’s tetrahydrofuran analyst believes that in the short term, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

Recently (12.29-1.5), the acrylonitrile market has been weak with a slight decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 5th, the bulk price of acrylonitrile in the market was 9762 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.51% from last Friday’s 9812 yuan/ton. At present, the mainstream price for self extraction of acrylonitrile from tanks in the market is between 9600 to 9900 yuan/ton. The price of raw materials has slightly declined, and the cost support for acrylonitrile has weakened; The overall low level stability of the main downstream ABS production; The supply of acrylonitrile units is loose, and the impact of supply and demand is bearish, resulting in a weak market consolidation.

Recently (12.29-1.5), there has been a slight increase in the construction of domestic acrylonitrile units, and the supply side is relatively loose.

Recently (12.29-1.5), the raw material propylene market has been weak and has fallen, with a bearish impact on the cost of acrylonitrile. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 5th, the domestic propylene price was 6638 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.35% from last Friday’s 6868 yuan/ton.

It is understood that since late December, downstream ABS production has remained fluctuating around 7.3%, with only essential support for acrylonitrile; As of early January, the domestic acrylic fiber plant has started operating at a low level, with weak demand for acrylonitrile; The nitrile rubber plant is operating normally, with slight support for the demand for acrylonitrile; The downstream inquiry and procurement enthusiasm in the polyacrylamide market is not good, and some orders are restricted in export. The low and stable start of production has weak support for the rigid demand for acrylonitrile. Overall, the current demand for acrylonitrile is weak, and the supply of acrylonitrile is loose, resulting in a weak and stable market trend.

Market forecast: Acrylonitrile analysts from Business Society believe that the current supply of acrylonitrile is still mainly loose; The demand side support is weak, and the price of raw material propylene has slightly decreased. Overall, it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to maintain a weak consolidation trend in the short term.