1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China was 5733 yuan/ton on November 3. On November 9, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China was 5633 yuan/ton, and the price of chlorinated paraffin 52 fell by 1.74% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of chlorinated paraffin has fallen this week. This week, the price of raw material liquid wax rose first and then fell, while the price of raw material liquid chlorine rose, providing support on the cost side. However, the market demand is weak, and downstream inquiries are relatively few, with a focus on rigid demand. Manufacturers and distributors often adopt a wait-and-see attitude. As of November 9th, the factory price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui Province is about 5900 yuan/ton, and the national standard market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province is about 4800-5600 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax rose first and then fell this week, and liquid wax fluctuated with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine has increased this week, and on-site trading is still acceptable, with relatively stable market demand.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Business Society’s chlorinated paraffin believe that the recent stable price of chlorinated paraffin has been the main trend, with downstream procurement on demand and relatively light demand. It is expected that the prices of chlorinated paraffins will stabilize and operate in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in costs and demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the asphalt market has experienced a narrow downward trend. From November 1st to 8th, the price of asphalt in Shandong fell from 3806 yuan/ton to 3759 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.23%, a decrease of 2.42% month on month, and a year-on-year decrease of 11.80%. The asphalt market is slightly flat, with some resource quotations stabilizing and declining, and due to factors such as environmental protection, inspection, and inspection, market demand is relatively average. Some contracts have high enthusiasm for shipment, and enterprise quotations are mostly at a low level.

On the supply side, the main production enterprises have suspended production of asphalt, intermittently suspended production, and driven a decrease in production in the area. The comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has decreased compared to the previous month, with a positive impact on the supply side.

On the cost side, oil prices have fallen to their lowest point in the past three months. The main reason is that the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve has sparked demand concerns and eased supply tension. As of the close on November 7th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures’ main contract was 81.61 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 3.57 US dollars or 4.2%.

On the demand side, the asphalt market mainly focuses on low-end transactions and prioritizes the use of social resources. The demand side of the asphalt market is influenced by bearish factors.

As of the close on November 8th, the petroleum asphalt futures market has declined. The main asphalt contract 2401 opened at 3684 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 3694 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 3590 yuan/ton. It closed at 3607 yuan/ton in the end, a decrease of 102 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, a decrease of 2.75%. The trading volume is 275811 lots, the holding volume is 251452 lots, and the daily increase is -2258.

In the future market forecast, international crude oil is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with weakened cost support. The market for just demand is slightly flat, and the overall situation is lukewarm, with low end transactions mainly focused on just demand. Business Society asphalt analysts predict that the domestic asphalt market will operate in a weak manner in the short term.

The price of ortho xylene fell in November

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 7th, the price of ortho xylene was 8000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton or 2.44% compared to the 8200 yuan/ton price of ortho xylene on October 31st. The cost of ortho benzene continues to decrease; Downstream demand remains weak, and the price of ortho xylene fell in November.

Raw material mixed with xylene stopped falling and rebounded

According to the market analysis system of mixed xylene products in the Business Society, as of November 7th, the price of mixed xylene was 7350 yuan/ton, which rebounded from the price of mixed xylene at 7330 yuan/ton as of October 31st last month, with an increase of 0.27%. Crude oil prices fluctuate and consolidate, naphtha prices fluctuate and rise, mixed xylene costs rise, mixed xylene prices stop falling and rise, raw material costs rise, and the upward momentum of orthoxylene increases.

Downstream phthalic anhydride market fluctuates and falls

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products in the Business Society, as of November 7th, the quotation for neighboring phthalic anhydride was 7612.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.72% compared to the price of 7825 yuan/ton as of October 31st last month. The operating rate of domestic phthalic anhydride remains at 60%, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is sufficient. The price of industrial naphthalene has increased, and the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has rebounded. The price difference between ortho phthalic anhydride and nefa phthalic anhydride is approaching, and the market for ortho phthalic anhydride is favorable. The price of phthalic anhydride has stopped falling and stabilized.

Future prospects

Analysts from Business Society’s adjacent xylene data believe that in November, the price of mixed xylene rebounded and the cost of adjacent xylene increased; The price of phthalic anhydride has stabilized, the market for phthalic anhydride has rebounded, and downstream demand for neighboring benzene has stabilized. It is expected that in the future, the price of neighboring benzene will fluctuate and stabilize.

Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices have temporarily stabilized this week, with an average market price of 162.50 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, prices fell by 12.95% year-on-year. On November 5th, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 42.76, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 68.99% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 137.82% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5th, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream support is good, while downstream demand increases

From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices have temporarily stabilized this week, and manufacturers’ inventory is average.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market has recently seen a slight increase, with good cost support. The downstream market price of polyaluminum chloride slightly increased, with the market price rising from 1728.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1751.25 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.30%. The weekend price fell by 12.93% year-on-year. The downstream ammonium chloride market is consolidating at a low level. The market price is 687.50 yuan/ton, and the weekend price fell by 28.20% year-on-year.

Future Market Forecast

In mid November, the market price of hydrochloric acid may fluctuate and fall mainly. The upstream liquid chlorine market slightly declined over the weekend, with insufficient cost support. The downstream ammonium chloride and polyaluminum chloride markets are temporarily stable, and downstream purchasing willingness is average. Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent slight fluctuations in the hydrochloric acid market have been the main trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic spandex market experienced a decline this week (October 30th November 3rd). As of November 3rd, the price of 40D spandex was 33750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.46% compared to the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 11.18%. The industry’s starting point remained around 72%.

This week, the domestic pure MDI market continued to rise, with an average price of 21750 yuan/ton in the East China market as of November 3, an increase of over 1000 yuan/ton compared to the end of October. The overall domestic supply has once again decreased, with scarce imported goods and a shortage of spot goods, causing traders to hesitate to sell and drive up prices. In the short term, the tight spot situation is difficult to alleviate, and the industry remains bullish, with downstream wait-and-see purchasing mainly based on demand. With the continuous decline of raw material BDO, the cost support for PTMEG has decreased, and the market is operating in a stalemate. The quotation for 1800 molecular weight remains at 21000 yuan/ton, and the overall operating rate of the industry is around 83.4%.

With the end of October, the traditional peak season for textiles has also come to an end, and downstream textile enterprises are still mainly engaged in on-demand procurement, with insufficient transaction performance. Currently, the comprehensive operating rate of domestic Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is around 75%. The issuance of domestic and foreign trade orders is average, with domestic trade orders mainly focusing on winter fabric orders, while foreign trade orders are still dominated by sporadic small orders from some brands. Adding to the difficulties in cash flow for manufacturers, terminal consumers hold a pessimistic attitude.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the current shortage of pure MDI raw materials in stock still leaves room for exploration in the market, and there is still good support for the cost side of spandex. But as the peak season for terminal textiles ends, demand further shrinks. Under the drag of demand, the price of spandex will continue to decline.