According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi remained stable this week (2.1-2.14), with an average market price of 16250 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 16250 yuan/ton over the weekend, maintaining stability.

This week’s market analysis

The magnesium market remained stable after the Spring Festival holiday in the Year of the Snake, with prices remaining largely stable. Due to the recent end of the Spring Festival holiday, downstream enterprises have resumed work and production one after another, and the market is mainly focused on digesting inventory from before the year, with relatively limited transactions. The factory has received some new orders while executing pre-sale orders from before the year, and the overall inventory pressure is not significant. Until the end of the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival) Festival, there were few transactions in the market as a whole. Downstream enterprises purchased on demand, and some users with inventory chose to wait and see the market.

Supply and demand side

New orders have been fulfilled one after another after the year, and there is currently limited supply of spot goods. Analysis suggests that due to the slow resumption of work by downstream enterprises and the need to digest pre year inventory, demand growth is limited in the short term, and the possibility of a recovery in the magnesium market is relatively small. However, due to the low inventory pressure in the factory and strong cost support, it is expected that the quotation will remain firm. With the gradual release of demand, the magnesium market is expected to continue to maintain a stable operating trend.

Currently, there is no significant rebound in downstream demand, and there is a lack of clear positive news to boost it. Therefore, it is expected that the magnesium market will not show a significant improvement in the short term. However, considering that the overall inventory pressure in the factory is not high, and the current magnesium price has put the factory in a serious loss making state, it is expected that the quotation will remain firm due to cost support. Meanwhile, with the continued implementation of the storage policy, the difficulty of further reducing magnesium prices is also increasing.

comprehensive analysis

In summary, it is expected that in the coming period, the magnesium market will mainly maintain a stable operating trend, with relatively small fluctuations. The market will closely monitor the follow-up of downstream demand, as well as changes in the raw material market and international trade environment, in order to make more accurate market judgments.

Market Overview: This week, the domestic acrylonitrile spot market prices fluctuated and fell, and downstream industries resisted high raw material prices, resulting in stagnant buying. Under bearish sentiment, suppliers actively shipped. As of February 14th, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup in East China ports is around 11300-11600 yuan/ton, and the negotiation for short distance delivery in Shandong market is around 11000-11500 yuan/ton.

Supply growth: From a news perspective, there is an expected increase in supply, with existing equipment being negatively charged and new production capacity being planned for deployment. As of February 13th, the capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry reached 76.47%, an increase of 1.35% compared to the same period last week.

Inventory controllable: According to statistics, as of February 12th, the inventory of acrylonitrile factories in China was 37300 tons, an increase of+0.1 million tons from last week, and the industry inventory is still controllable in the short term.

Flat demand: Currently, buying is gradually recovering, but downstream industries have become increasingly resistant to high raw material prices due to losses, resulting in stagnant buying.

Cost wise: International oil prices continue to decline, which is bearish for the market sentiment. And currently, downstream centralized replenishment has ended, and enterprise shipments are tending to be flat, which has a certain degree of suppression on price trends. As of February 13th, the market price of propylene in Shandong was 6770-6900 yuan/ton, with average cost support.

Market forecast: Overall, acrylonitrile production profits are considerable, factory production enthusiasm is high, supply side variables still exist, and suppliers are actively shipping under bearish sentiment. Low price offers in the spot market continue to appear, and it is expected that acrylonitrile prices will weakly decline in the short term. We will continue to pay attention to the operation of factory facilities and changes in downstream demand.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of February 13th, the average price of domestic industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane was 7766.67 yuan/ton. After the holiday, the cyclohexane market remained stable, and the mainstream market price is currently around 7800 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost, the price of pure benzene maintains a strong trend, and there is still short-term port pressure after the holiday. However, some equipment news in the pure benzene market has been boosted recently, and the trend of styrene market is still acceptable. In the short term, the pure benzene range in East China will be consolidated.

3、 Future forecast

The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that there is currently insufficient support from the upstream cost side, and downstream demand procurement is running. It is expected that the cyclohexane market will remain stable in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PP market in February was mainly organized, with limited price adjustments for most brand products. As of February 12th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7520 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.51% compared to the price level at the beginning of January.

Price trend

In terms of raw materials:

In terms of remote upstream crude oil in the first ten days of the month, due to the imposition of tariffs by the United States at the beginning of the month and Trump’s demand for OPEC to increase production and reduce prices, as well as a significant increase in US crude oil inventories, market concerns have increased. In addition, the recent easing of international geopolitical relations in Europe has led to a significant drop in crude oil market prices. Overall, the upstream support for PP has weakened. Due to the low pre holiday prices and reduced supply, propylene has been operating relatively strongly, but recently it has also been affected by crude oil and has been stagnant and consolidating. Overall, the PP raw material market fluctuated in early February, and there is a downward expectation for the current cost value, making it difficult to obtain positive guidance.

Supply side:

After the holiday, the load of domestic PP enterprises has slightly decreased compared to before the holiday. Overall, the industry’s overall load level remained stable at around 80% compared to the end of last month, a 3% decrease from before the holiday. The average weekly production in China is over 750000 tons, and the expected PP shipment volume is reduced, but the market supply is still abundant. Overall, the supply side provides moderate support for PP spot prices.

In terms of demand:

Before the holiday, the demand for PP tends to be weak and rigid. Before and after the Spring Festival holiday, the consumption level of woven bags such as fertilizers, cement, and rice was poor, and the consumption level of plastic weaving also declined. The stocking intensity of terminal enterprises is average, and the purchasing logic tends to digest inventory. The willingness to continue building warehouses is low, and the operation tends to be short-term buy as you go. The resumption of work in enterprises after the holiday is slow and the load is low. Overall, the demand side has shown weak performance.

Future forecast

In early February, the domestic PP market prices were sorted and operated. Fundamentally speaking, the overall performance of upstream raw materials in supporting PP is average. The industry supply remains abundant. According to consumer feedback, businesses are gradually returning to the market after the holiday, but there is a lack of buying momentum on the market. In the short term, it is expected that the speed of PP price rebound may lag behind.

Recently, UBS stated that CATL’s spodumene mine in Jiangxi may restart, but did not provide further details. But this news is enough to stir up industry waves. On February 10th, insiders from Longpan Times, a lithium carbonate joint venture smelting plant located in Yichun, Jiangxi, confirmed to a certain media that the company has gradually resumed work.

In September 2024, Ningde Times made adjustments to lithium mining in Jiangxi Province. The reason was that the cost of extracting lithium from spodumene was higher than that of extracting lithium from salt lakes. After the news of production suspension was announced, lithium prices fluctuated accordingly. Lithium carbonate, which had been declining for half a year, showed signs of rebound. What impact does this resumption of production have on lithium carbonate prices?

The Ningde Times Jianxiawo Mine is located in Yichun, Jiangxi Province, with a resource reserve of 960.25 million tons, equivalent to approximately 6.57 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent. It is the largest lithium mica mine in Yichun. But the grade of the mine is not high, about 0.27%, and the total cost of producing lithium carbonate is about 160000 yuan/ton LCE, which is more than twice the current market price (80000 yuan).

Why did Ningde Times resume production at such a high cost

The reason may be that downstream battery production and sales are booming, and CATL may face a shortage of lithium carbonate in the upstream.

Since 2025, Ningde Times has welcomed a wave of orders:

On February 6th, CATL won the bid for the Guoxin Liyang Energy Storage Power Station project, with a total price of 1.2 billion yuan, equivalent to a unit price of 0.607 yuan/Wh.

On January 27th, CATL signed a strategic agreement with global logistics giant DHL Group.

On January 19th, CATL announced that it had signed a 19GWh energy storage system order with Masdar in the United Arab Emirates.

On January 17th, Longpan Technology signed a new sales framework agreement and a new procurement framework agreement with CATL, both valid from January 1st, 2025 to December 31st, 2025.

On January 6th, CATL also held a strategic cooperation signing ceremony with FAW Jiefang in Ningde, Fujian.

On January 5th, CATL and Conch Group held a strategic cooperation agreement signing ceremony.

On January 2nd, the signing ceremony of the “Ningde Times Luoyuan New Energy Base Project Investment Contract” was held. The Ningde Times Fujian Fuzhou Luoyuan New Energy Base project is located in the Fuzhou Taiwan Business Investment Zone and plans to invest in the construction of a 40GWh battery base with an annual production capacity.

In summary, the resumption of production at Ningde Times Jianxiawo Mine is a positive news for the lithium carbonate market, indicating good downstream demand. As the supply-demand relationship tends to balance, lithium carbonate may experience a rebound, and specific market conditions still need to be monitored.