In October, domestic liquid ammonia did not continue the downward trend of the previous two months, and the market gradually stabilized. The market first fell and then rose, and by the end of the month, the market price had basically returned to the level at the beginning of the month. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the decline of liquid ammonia in Shandong Province in October was 0.44%. As of the end of the month, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is between 2200-2270 yuan/ton.
The production schedule of the device does not decrease, and the market inventory is still high
From a supply side perspective, the supply-demand structure still leans towards surplus. As we enter October, the operating rate remains at a medium high level, with few maintenance manufacturers and no reduction in production output. The inventory pressure of enterprises is high, and in order to alleviate the pressure, factory prices have fallen more than they have risen. Secondly, the impact of external sources of goods has led to an increase in import volume, while low-priced foreign sources have impacted the domestic market. Supply is in an oversupply situation. Although some manufacturers experienced short-term malfunctions and reduced production after mid month, resulting in a slight rebound in enterprise quotations, at the end of the month, with some devices resuming operation, the upward trend did not continue. Some manufacturers in Shandong experienced a slight price correction, and the market still did not shake off the weak trend. Overall, there has been little change in ammonia prices during the month, and the adjustment space continues to narrow. On the demand side, the peak season for agricultural demand is not strong, and downstream industries such as urea and compound fertilizers lack support. Industrial demand remains rigid and fluctuates little. Downstream weakness makes it difficult for the market to improve.
The cooling of the industrial chain is mainly due to the weakness of the upstream and downstream
From the perspective of the liquid ammonia industry chain chart, upstream natural gas has seen a significant increase, with a monthly decline of 12.82%, which has brought more cost pressure to gas ammonia companies. Especially in the downstream sector, it is still generally cold, with more declines and less gains. Especially urea is still lukewarm, according to monitoring, urea fell by 0.85% in October. This is mainly reflected in weak downstream demand, low season in agriculture, and the current increase in compound fertilizer production not meeting market expectations. The terminal production in the industrial demand field is also showing a downward trend. The market is generally dominated by rigid demand, and the demand side is restricting the ammonia market from getting out of the slump.
Market forecast:
Business analysts believe that from a supply side perspective, there will be little change in the future market supply and demand pattern, and the market will lean towards supply-demand balance. The devices will start and stop, and the impact will tend to weaken. The mentality of enterprises to raise prices may be reflected, and the downward space in the later stage may be compressed. The supply and demand pressure will continue to ease in November.
From the demand side, in the short term, demand remains stable, and expectations may be weak in the later period. On the one hand, the concentrated procurement during the agricultural peak season is scattered, and the market lacks speculative sentiment, resulting in light trading. In addition, industrial demand remains dominated by rigid demand, and overall, downstream liquid ammonia may continue to drag down its price recovery in the later stage.
Taking all factors into consideration, the price of liquid ammonia is expected to maintain a range of fluctuations in the short term, with prices remaining at a low level. In the later stage of supply and demand competition, liquid ammonia may still be difficult to break free from the weak oscillation pattern. We need to pay attention to the manufacturer’s equipment start-up news in the later stage.

Aluminum prices strengthen in October
Aluminum prices strengthened in October. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 31, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 21293.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.70% from the market average price of 20733.33 yuan/ton on October 1.
The aluminum price has exceeded the 21000 mark and is at a relatively high level in the past 1-2 years. The price of raw material alumina has fallen from its high level, and the profit per ton of aluminum is currently in a relatively good position.
Social inventory continues to decrease in October
As of October 30th, the social inventory in mainstream areas of China was 605000 tons, which completely consumed the accumulated holiday inventory. This is lower than the 614000 tons on September 25th and 29000 tons off inventory compared to 634000 tons on October 9th.
List of favorable news for aluminum ingots in October
Macro factors:
1. The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates as scheduled, with hawkish statements from Powell; On October 30, 2025, the Federal Reserve held its FOMC meeting and decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% -4.00% with a vote of 10 in favor and 2 against. This was the second interest rate cut of the year and the second consecutive one since the start of the rate cut cycle in September. But after the meeting, the Federal Reserve’s Powell made hawkish remarks, pouring cold water on the previously unanimously expected December interest rate cut in the market.
2. The heads of state of China and the United States met smoothly, and the spokesperson stated that the US will suspend the implementation of its 50% penetration rule for export controls announced on September 29th for one year. China will suspend the implementation of relevant export control measures announced on October 9th for one year, and will study and refine specific plans that are basically in line with market expectations.
Overseas supply side disturbance:
Century Aluminum announced on October 21st that its Noreur á l Grundatangi smelter in Iceland has suspended production due to electrical equipment failures. One of its two electrolytic aluminum production lines has been forced to shut down, temporarily reducing production by two-thirds. This has led to a decrease in overseas aluminum supply, providing some support for international aluminum prices and affecting the domestic aluminum ingot market.
The domestic consumption peak season continues:
The domestic consumption peak season continues, and the demand for aluminum is performing well. Although the high price of aluminum has somewhat suppressed the enthusiasm of downstream procurement, downstream still maintains rigid demand procurement. Among them, the demand resilience of new energy vehicles, new energy cables and other fields is strong. For example, in September, the retail penetration rate of passenger cars was 57.8%, and the aluminum rod processing fee in Guangdong remained at a high level of 550 yuan/ton.
Market expectations are positive:
Goldman Sachs and other institutions have raised their expectations for aluminum prices, believing that after implementing stimulus measures, China’s demand potential will be greater, and aluminum prices will benefit from China’s equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade in programs.
Stay tuned for the future market
Recently, the macro sentiment of non-ferrous commodities has been relatively strong. As for aluminum products, there have been disturbances in overseas supply. Rio Tinto stated that its Tomago aluminum smelter in New South Wales is facing high electricity price pressure, and its Tomago aluminum smelter in New South Wales is considering stopping operations after the current electricity supply contract expires. Overseas supply has positive support, and aluminum prices are prone to rise but difficult to fall in the short term for aluminum ingots.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market in October showed a trend of first falling and then rising. As of October 30th, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4552 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.93% from the beginning of the month.
After the holiday, PTA market prices continued to decline. The weak macro caused by the main tariff issue, as well as the continued negative sentiment due to the production of new facilities and weak demand. In the second half of the year, as oil prices rebounded from low levels, overall commodity sentiment rebounded, and downstream purchasing sentiment increased during the traditional peak season, causing the PTA price center to shift upward.
As of October 29th, the settlement price of the December WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $60.48 per barrel, and the settlement price of the December Brent crude oil futures contract was $64.92 per barrel. OPEC is highly likely to maintain increased production in December, and the supply side will continue to be loose. Without significant improvement on the demand side, the supply-demand pattern is imbalanced. There has been no new progress in the geopolitical situation, so the support given to oil prices is limited.
The main factories in Northeast China have restarted their pre maintenance equipment, and the industry’s operating rate is currently around 78%. Next, the new PTA production capacity of 2.7 million tons in East China has been tested and discharged, and overall PTA production will continue to increase. In addition, if PTA companies actively reduce production under low processing fees, PTA may not accumulate inventory in November and December, which will push up the PTA market. But if the reduction in production is limited, it still cannot change the current pattern of sufficient supply.
Overall, the quality of “Silver Ten” is insufficient, and its seasonal strength is highly limited. Most of them focus on digesting raw materials and stocking up in the early stage, maintaining a strong demand for raw material procurement. After mid October, with the combination of cold weather and Double Eleven promotions, the demand for winter fabrics increased, and the end weaving orders improved. The enthusiasm of textile enterprises to replenish raw materials increased, and the inventory pressure of downstream polyester factories eased, with a load of about 87%.
Business analysts believe that in the short term, cost support and phased improvement in demand will boost PTA prices, and it is expected that PTA prices will show a strong and volatile pattern. In addition, from the analysis method of the spot market of Shengyi Society, the price of Shengyi Society has crossed the 10 day and 20 day moving averages, indicating an upward trend. But with the new PTA plant put into operation and the early maintenance facilities gradually resuming, the peak demand season is also coming to an end, and oversupply will limit the rebound height. We still need to pay attention to price fluctuations on the cost side and the actual fulfillment of terminal orders.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PP market at the end of October tended to consolidate, with prices of various brand products fluctuating. As of October 29th, the benchmark price for PP wire drawing offered by Shengyi Society was 6773.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.12% compared to the price level at the beginning of October.
price trend
In terms of raw materials:
In the second half of October, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East escalated, and market concerns about supply resurfaced. In addition, the decline in US crude oil inventories has led to a rapid recovery in the international oil price market. The propylene sector experienced a rapid decline in the early stage due to the decline in crude oil prices and insufficient trading. Recently, there has been a sustained low-level sideways trend, with industry players mainly adopting a wait-and-see approach. The current supply and demand of propane are balanced, and the market is stable. However, due to the rising cost of the oil production method, there is an expectation of an improvement in the profit situation of PDH manufacturing enterprises. Overall, the prices of PP raw materials have slightly improved in terms of cost support.
Supply side:
In the second half of October, the operating rate of domestic PP enterprises rose and then fell back, with an overall narrow change. As of the time of writing, the overall load level of the domestic industry is 77%, which is comparable to the operating rate in the first half of October. The weekly average total output is close to 780000 tons. During the trial production of 400000 tons/year equipment at Guangxi Petrochemical in the middle of the month, the industry experienced relatively concentrated shutdowns and troubleshooting at the end of the month, which slightly eased the pressure on the supply side. The current on-site supply remains abundant, with inventory levels accumulating at a high level of over 920000 tons. Combined with the approaching restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical’s fourth line, overall, the PP supply side still lacks support for spot prices.
In terms of demand:
October falls within the traditional peak season for polypropylene. Although the materials used in fields such as plastic weaving and agriculture have improved to some extent at the end of last month, this year’s “Silver Ten” is still being counterfeited by PP prices. The positive news of improved market trading atmosphere has been smoothed out by many negative factors, coupled with the previous announcement of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut and the subsequent drag of US trade barriers on end products going global, which has constrained the load on downstream enterprises. Lack of demand and accumulation of inventory. On the other hand, the Fourth Plenary Session of the Communist Party of China set goals for the economic direction, resulting in a slight improvement in the supply-demand margin. In the future, Double Eleven will boost e-commerce consumption, and there may be an increase in new orders in the film material field. However, overall, the demand side has poor momentum, making it difficult to support PP spot prices.
Future forecast
At the end of October, the domestic PP market prices returned to consolidation. From a fundamental perspective, the prices of various upstream raw materials have risen more or fallen less, providing narrow support for PP. The industry load remains stable at a high level, and the expectation of loose supply remains unchanged. The improvement in consumption is limited, and the market lacks positive guidance. It is expected that the PP market will continue to adjust.

Aluminum prices slightly strengthened in October
Aluminum prices slightly strengthened in October. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 28, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 21176.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.14% from the market average price of 20733.33 yuan/ton on October 1.
The aluminum price has exceeded the 21000 mark and is at a relatively high level in the past 1-2 years. The price of raw material alumina has fallen from its high level, and the profit per ton of aluminum is currently in a relatively good position.
In October, aluminum ingots followed the overall strong operation of non-ferrous metals, which was greatly affected by macro factors to a certain extent.
The recent positive news is as follows:
Macro policies and favorable trade relations:
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters and 4.8% year-on-year in the third quarter, supporting market confidence with a positive macroeconomic outlook. In addition, as agreed by both China and the United States, they will hold economic and trade consultations in Malaysia from October 24th to 27th, which has eased the trade tension and had a positive impact on the macro sentiment of the aluminum ingot market.
Continuous inventory depletion:
As of October 27th, the social inventory in mainstream areas of China was 616000 tons, which basically consumed the accumulated inventory during holidays, approaching 614000 tons on September 25th, and 18000 tons were destocked compared to 634000 tons on October 9th.
Overseas supply side disturbance:
Century Aluminum announced on October 21st that its Noreur á l Grundatangi smelter in Iceland has suspended production due to electrical equipment failures. One of its two electrolytic aluminum production lines has been forced to shut down, temporarily reducing production by two-thirds. This has led to a decrease in overseas aluminum supply, providing some support for international aluminum prices and affecting the domestic aluminum ingot market.
The domestic consumption peak season continues:
The domestic consumption peak season continues, and the demand for aluminum is performing well. Although the high price of aluminum has somewhat suppressed the enthusiasm of downstream procurement, downstream still maintains rigid demand procurement. Among them, the demand resilience of new energy vehicles, new energy cables and other fields is strong. For example, in September, the retail penetration rate of passenger cars was 57.8%, and the aluminum rod processing fee in Guangdong remained at a high level of 550 yuan/ton.
LME inventory decline:
LME inventory has continued to decline slightly in the past two months, dropping to 478000 as of October 23, indicating a tight supply of overseas spot goods, which has also provided some support for aluminum prices.
Overview of October Fundamentals
Supply side
Overall stable production capacity: The operating capacity is 44.165 million tons, which is in a high stable state. The newly added production capacity (280000 tons to be started in Xinjiang) is basically offset by the reduced production (400000 tons in Qinghai Zhonglv and 4.31 million tons in Shandong Weiqiao), and has little impact on supply.
The proportion of direct supply of aluminum water has increased: Northern aluminum enterprises have been affected by the peak demand season downstream, resulting in an increase in the proportion of direct supply of aluminum water, which has led to a low production of aluminum ingots and reduced the supply of spot aluminum ingots in the market, supporting aluminum prices.

Weak cost support: The price of alumina has declined, with a market price of 3030 yuan/ton in Guangxi. Pre baked anodes remain stable at 5055 yuan/ton, while thermal coal has slightly rebounded. Overall cost support is weak, which to some extent affects the production profit and supply enthusiasm of enterprises.
In terms of demand
The overall operating rate has fluctuated: this week, the operating rate of leading domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises recorded an average of 62.5% compared to last week, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Among them, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy has rebounded to 58.4%, and it is expected that the operating rate will continue to be stable and approach the high point of the year in the latter half of the year; The operating rate of leading aluminum sheet and strip enterprises has remained stable at 68%, but some enterprises are expected to gradually decline due to off-season expectations and the impact of Trump tariffs; The operating rate of the aluminum cable industry remains at 64%, and it may continue to be weak and stable in the short term; The operating rate of the aluminum profile industry has slightly decreased to 53.5%, and it is expected that the short-term operating rate of profiles will remain stable but slightly weak; The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remains stable at 72.3%, but weak terminal demand may lead to a decline in operating rate; The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises has slightly decreased to 58.6%, and it is expected that the industry’s operating rate will continue to decline slightly in October.
There is a clear differentiation in demand: demand resilience is strong in areas such as new energy vehicles and new energy cables, while demand in the building materials sector is weak. The inventory of aluminum bars in Foshan is 62100 tons, which continues to accumulate.
Stay tuned for the future market
Under the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the macro sentiment of non-ferrous commodities is relatively strong, and aluminum prices are prone to rise but difficult to fall in the short term.