According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been weak and slightly declining recently (10.1-10.14). As of October 14th, the spot rubber market price in China’s natural rubber market was around 14391 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.87% from 14666 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. On the one hand, the high prices of natural rubber raw materials have fallen, which has weakened the support for the natural rubber market; On the other hand, during the downstream tire festival period, the overall operating capacity was low, which had a negative impact on natural rubber. Despite the continued slight destocking of natural rubber inventory at the port, the natural rubber market has experienced a slight decline due to cost and demand factors. As of October 14th, the mainstream price for 24 years of Guangken, Baodao, and Haibao latex in Qingdao area is 14200-14550 yuan/ton.
As of October 14th, the price of Thai glue was 54.10 baht/kg, a decrease of 1.28% from 54.80 baht/kg on September 30th. Although typhoons continue to affect major Southeast Asian production areas such as Hainan and Yunnan, as well as Thailand and Vietnam in recent times, some rubber cutting operations have been hindered. However, the market expects a concentrated release of supply after the weather improves in the fourth quarter, and overall raw material prices continue to decline from high levels.
Recently (10.1-10.14), natural rubber inventory has continued to decrease slightly, which has a greater impact on natural rubber. As of October 12, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 456000 tons, a decrease of 0.05 million tons or 0.11% compared to the previous period.
Recently (10.1-10.14), due to the National Day holiday, the average production of downstream tires has significantly decreased, which has a bearish impact on the natural rubber market. As of October 9th, the construction of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has slightly increased to around 4.20%; The production of all steel tires by tire companies in Shandong Province has slightly decreased to around 4.20%.
Market forecast: The current high prices of natural rubber raw materials have fallen back, and downstream production is low. However, the overall inventory of Tianjiao Port continues to decline slightly, and it is expected that the natural rubber market will experience weak fluctuations before the holiday.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market has fluctuated downward this cycle. From October 1st to October 13th, 2025, the price of butadiene was reduced from 8886.67 yuan/ton to 8380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.7%. The overall performance of the domestic butadiene market in this cycle is weak, with a wide range of ex factory prices for major refineries in China. The overall performance of downstream demand is poor, and the trend of the synthetic rubber market is weak. The enthusiasm for entering the market is low, and the purchasing intention is weak. The actual transaction performance in the market is poor, and there is a lack of demand support, resulting in a weak overall performance of the butadiene market. As of October 13th, the delivery price to the Shandong market is between 8500-8600 yuan/ton.
Cost wise: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 10th, the settlement price of the November WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $58.90 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the December contract is $62.73 per barrel. During this cycle, the crude oil price market first rose and then fell. On the one hand, geopolitical factors remain one of the important factors affecting the crude oil market. Russia and Ukraine have tense geopolitical factors, and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts have stimulated the crude oil market to rise; On the other hand, OPEC+has launched a new round of production increase of 1.65 million barrels per day, and the market is still concerned about the long-term risk of oversupply. The easing of the Palestinian Israeli situation, coupled with weakened US demand, has dragged down global economic and demand expectations due to US tariff issues, leading to a rapid decline in international oil prices.
Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is 8800 yuan/ton.
On the demand side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market situation of Shunding rubber in East China is weak and declining. Currently, downstream terminals are inquiring on demand, and the ex factory price of Shunding rubber has been reduced by 300 yuan/ton after the holiday. Market transactions are light, and merchant offers are weak and declining. As of October 13th, the mainstream prices for Daqing, Yangtze, and Qilu Shunding are around 11300 to 11500 yuan/ton, while some private brands are priced around 11000 to 11350 yuan/ton.
Market forecast: There has been no significant increase in downstream demand in the near future, and overall market expectations remain weak. With the intention of purchasing for essential needs, the spot market is generally weak, and there is a lack of positive factors to boost the market. Under the influence of weak demand, it is expected that the butadiene market will be weak and volatile in the short term, with a focus on downstream procurement demand.

In early October, the overall performance of the polyester bottle chip market was weak, with prices fluctuating downwards. According to the price data from Shengyi Society, on October 10th, the market price in East China closed at 5812 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 40 yuan/ton from before the holiday. Faced with a weak market, most polyester bottle chip companies choose to lower their prices, ranging from 20-50 yuan/ton, resulting in a shift in the actual transaction center of the market.
Significant collapse of cost support
The ceasefire agreement reached between Palestine and Israel has eased the instability of the geopolitical situation, leading to a decline in international oil prices. This is the root cause of weakening the cost of the chemical industry chain upstream. The PTA and ethylene glycol markets, which are direct raw materials for polyester bottle chips, have also shown weak performance. On October 10th, the spot negotiation price of PTA in East China fell to 4485 yuan/ton. The collective weakening of upstream raw materials has resulted in the loss of important cost support for polyester bottle chips.
Adequate supply but weak demand
Despite the downward trend in prices, the market supply is relatively sufficient. The overall operating rate of the industry remains at a level of 73.37% to 78.62%, which means that the factory’s output has not significantly decreased and the market’s spot supply is relatively sufficient. Insufficient demand follow-up: Downstream end users, such as those in the soft drink packaging industry, generally adopt a wait-and-see attitude, with procurement strategies mainly focused on cautious follow-up according to demand, lacking enthusiasm for large-scale stocking. The sluggish peak season of “golden September and silver October” has led to an imbalance between supply and demand, suppressing prices.
Overall, Shengyi Society believes that there is currently no significant positive trend in supply and demand, and the price of PET spot market may adjust narrowly with the cost side in the short term. The expected price may fluctuate within the range of 5680-5850 yuan/ton.

After the National Day holiday, the acrylic acid market did not show any weakness, but instead emerged with a strong trend of both quantity and price rising. The core feature of the market, the reduction of low prices in the market, is not only a phenomenon, but also a subtle concentration of supply and demand patterns.
Market situation: Strong start, shift focus upwards
As of October 10, 2025, the domestic acrylic acid market has made a strong start. The benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society is 6983.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.23% compared to the beginning of this month (6700.00 yuan/ton). This increase is the result of the resonance of three factors: supply, cost, and mentality.
1. Supply side:
Active reduction in operating rate: Data shows that on October 9th, the average capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylic acid industry dropped to 76.44%, a decrease of 1.45 percentage points compared to the previous month. This is not accidental. Some factories have reduced their inventory or stopped for maintenance before the holiday due to considerations of inventory and costs, resulting in a significant tightening of spot supply after the holiday.
Healthy inventory structure: Before the holiday, downstream and traders are cautious in stocking up, and social inventory is not high. After the holiday, facing the current situation of tight supply, the inventory pressure of channels and factories is generally not high, providing a solid foundation for sellers to raise prices.
2. Cost side:
As of October 10th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6588.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.69% compared to the beginning of this month (6543.25 yuan/ton). Still at a high level. Greatly enhanced the manufacturer’s determination to raise prices. They are no longer willing to engage in price wars, but instead unify market prices by reducing or canceling low-priced offers, which is the fundamental reason for the “reduction of low prices in the market”.
3. Demand side:
Replenishment of rigid demand: downstream industries (such as SAP, resin, lotion, etc.) have not seen explosive growth, but their rigid demand is still stable. There is a necessary need to replenish inventory after the holiday, and this’ hard demand ‘is sufficient to digest the current tight spot resources.
Market mentality shift: The signals of supply tightening and cost support are clearly transmitted to the market, and the mentality of both buyers and sellers changes. The seller has shifted from “actively shipping” to “reluctant to sell and maintain prices”, while the buyer has shifted from “watching and suppressing prices” to “receiving goods on demand” due to concerns about continued price increases or the disappearance of low-priced sources. This change in mentality has further accelerated the clearance of low-priced sources in the market and promoted the overall shift of the delivery center.
Summary: The current “strong operation” of the acrylic acid market is a phased victory under weak reality and strong cost/supply expectations. It more reflects the bottoming out effect of supply side contraction on prices when profits are extremely thin. Traders need to closely monitor the trend of upstream propylene prices, the operating plans of major factories, and the substantial order situation downstream, which will be key signals for determining the next direction of the market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the formic acid market has recently shown a weak consolidation pattern in a state of weak supply-demand balance. As of October 9th, the benchmark price of formic acid in Shengyi Society was 2933 yuan/ton, down 3.3% from before the holiday, down 8.9% month on month, and up 5.71% year-on-year.
Inventory release
On September 25th, manufacturers released reserved inventory and initiated a price adjustment mechanism, effectively reducing enterprise inventory from high levels to a median level of 55% -60%. Top enterprises such as Luxi Chemical maintain a low inventory strategy, while small and medium-sized enterprises face significant inventory pressure due to a high proportion of raw material purchases.
Weak performance on the demand side
The pre holiday market is in a stage of price adjustment, and some downstream enterprises have adopted moderate procurement strategies due to pre holiday stocking demand and price expectations. However, overall, the demand in the terminal market is still insufficient.
There is support for the price of raw material methanol
After the National Day holiday, the methanol market will enter a critical stage of upstream enterprises destocking and downstream enterprises restocking simultaneously. Due to the high operation of coal prices and the rise in natural gas costs, the downward space for methanol prices is limited, which will provide certain support for the cost of formic acid.
The formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current formic acid price has no significant upward momentum in terms of cost support and weak supply-demand balance, and is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend.