According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PP market was flat in the first half of June and rose in the second half, with most brand products experiencing price increases. As of June 30th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic manufacturers and traders is around 7466.67 yuan/ton, a rise or fall of+0.99% compared to the price level at the beginning of June.
price trend
In terms of raw materials:
In early June, the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe remained highly tense. The market is increasingly concerned about the risk of crude oil supply. At the same time, the seasonal increase in fuel demand has boosted the market synchronously. However, the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran was reached at the end of the month, and the risk of oil supply interruption in the Middle East region was simultaneously reduced. Oil prices quickly fell after rising. Due to the transmission of the rise in crude oil prices, the domestic propane sector has now risen to a high level, and the cost support of PDH manufacturing enterprises has strengthened, while the propylene sector has fallen after rising. Overall, the prices of PP raw materials in June have provided strong support for costs, and the level of geopolitical tension in Europe may fluctuate in the future. It is recommended to closely monitor international oil prices.
Supply side:
In June, the load of domestic PP enterprises fluctuated and increased, while the market supply remained abundant. Overall, the current industry’s overall load level has risen to nearly 80% compared to 77% at the beginning of the month. The weekly average total production has increased to over 780000 tons, and domestic inventory has been partially digested at around 600000 tons. The Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Fourth Line in the area will be put into operation on June 19th. At the same time, Zhenhai Line, Yanshan Petrochemical, and Zhejiang Petrochemical have all reduced their production capacity and basically flattened their production capacity. Overall, the supply side’s support for PP spot prices in June was ambiguous and the intensity was average. However, in addition to the 500000 tons/year new production capacity of Zhenhai Fourth Line that has already been put into operation, and the presence of Yulong Petrochemical and other enterprises in the fourth quarter, a total of 900000 tons of new production capacity has been put into operation, severely limiting the long-term supply pattern.
In terms of demand:
In June, the demand for PP continued to be weak, and on-site trading gradually entered the traditional off-season. Merchants have hardly seen any advance stocking operations, and the on-site situation remains in a state of urgent need, with a focus on on-demand use. In terms of plastic weaving, the consumption level of terminal enterprises is already at the off-season level, and downstream PP enterprises in China are struggling to start production. There is also a certain shrinkage in materials used in construction, agriculture and other fields. On site new orders tend to focus on scattered small orders and contract deliveries, resulting in a return to flat supply liquidity and a further slowdown in PP demand release speed. The news of the second round of economic and trade consultations between China and the United States within the month has strengthened the mentality of some businesses and stimulated the market to release some of the demand for replenishment. However, in the context of weak export and domestic demand, the demand side of PP does not provide sufficient support for spot prices.
Future forecast
In June, the domestic PP market prices first remained flat and then rose. Fundamentally speaking, the upstream of the far end has experienced significant fluctuations after rising, and overall support for PP remains strong. The industry’s inventory has been partially digested, and the supply remains abundant. Consumption is at a low season level. The current cost side benefits are intertwined with the negative effects of supply and demand contradictions, and the market speculation atmosphere has fallen. It is expected that the PP market will continue to digest the previous gains in the short term and enter a consolidation market. It is recommended to closely monitor the cost situation.

Price trend: first rising and then falling, rebounding at the end of the month
At the beginning of the month, Indonesian mineral prices supported nickel prices, and the center of gravity shifted upward. On June 9th, it rose to a high point of 124133 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.40%. Subsequently, the loosening of Philippine policies (lifting the ban on raw ore exports) intensified expectations of oversupply, coupled with the escalation of the Middle East situation suppressing market sentiment. Nickel prices continued to bottom out, and on June 24th, nickel prices fell below the 120000 yuan mark to 119050 yuan/ton, hitting a four-year low. At the end of the month, with the easing of geopolitical risks and the weakening of the US dollar, nickel prices rebounded strongly, but due to high inventory pressure, the market had a strong wait-and-see sentiment. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, on June 27th, spot electrolytic nickel was reported at 122433.33 yuan/ton, slightly up 0.01% from the beginning of the month, but still down 10.10% year-on-year.
Macro perspective: intertwining long and short positions
The US tariff policy has been intensified: steel and aluminum tariffs have been raised from 25% to 50%, and tariffs have been imposed on steel derived products (such as household appliances), directly suppressing the demand for stainless steel (70% of nickel consumption relies on stainless steel), with obvious negative transmission.
The contradiction between employment and inflation: In May, the United States added 139000 non farm jobs (exceeding expectations), with hourly wages increasing by 0.4% month on month, and inflation pressure continues. Despite Trump’s call for interest rate cuts, economic resilience may delay the Federal Reserve’s easing policy.
Domestic policy support: The weak manufacturing sector in May reflects weak demand for industrial metals, but retail data exceeded expectations, indicating consumer resilience. The policy of “trade in” is being intensified: the third batch of national subsidy funds will be issued in July, and monthly plans will be formulated in different fields, which is expected to boost terminal consumption expectations. The Premier’s statement: China insists on opening up its market, strengthening global economic confidence, and indirectly supporting metal demand expectations.
Supply side: Continued excess pressure
Indonesia: The benchmark price for domestic nickel ore (June 2) is 15221 US dollars per ton (down 1.19% from the previous period), with limited decline and strong willingness to raise prices for high cost mines; However, actual shipments were affected by rainfall and were lower than the expected quota (300 million wet tons have already been issued).
Philippines: Despite the end of the rainy season, the shipment volume is still limited, and the cancellation of export bans from a policy perspective exacerbates concerns about long-term oversupply.
Significant inventory pressure: LME nickel inventory increased by 4914 tons (to 204294 tons) within the month, while domestic Shanghai nickel inventory decreased by 800 tons (to 21257 tons) within the month. The increase in inventory is greater than the decrease in inventory, and the pattern of oversupply continues to be under pressure.
Accelerated capacity expansion: Multiple nickel projects have been put into operation in Indonesia, and Macquarie expects oversupply to continue until 2027-2028.
Hidden cost support: Russian company Norinco claims that current prices have caused losses for 25% of global nickel companies, and Indonesia plans to regulate mineral prices to maintain stability.
Demand side: Weak stainless steel and insufficient new energy momentum
Stainless steel market: On June 27th, the benchmark price of stainless steel in Shengyi Society was 12725.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.42% from the beginning of the month. Some manufacturers in China and India have reduced production but their accumulated inventory has not been depleted, and terminal demand has not shown any improvement.
The growth rate of new energy is slowing down: lithium iron phosphate batteries are squeezing the share of ternary batteries, and the demand for nickel from ternary batteries is weakening.

Market forecast: The upward trend of nickel prices is constrained by high inventory and weak demand, while the downward trend is supported by costs. It is expected that nickel prices will remain within a range of fluctuations.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on June 26th, the reference price for the domestic silicon metal # 441 market was 8620 yuan/ton. Compared to June 1st (the market price for silicon metal # 441 was 8780 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.82%.
From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that since June, the domestic spot market for silicon metal # 441 has shown an overall trend of first falling and then stabilizing. In the first ten days of June, after the Dragon Boat Festival, the spot market of metal silicon # 441 was running in a weak and downward direction. The downstream demand was slowly boosted, and the focus of market negotiation was adjusted downward. In mid to late June, the overall stability and consolidation of the spot market for silicon metal # 441 was the main trend, with little fluctuation in the spot market and a slight supply-demand stalemate. As of June 26th, the market price of silicon metal # 441 in East China was around 8400-8600 yuan/ton, while the market price of silicon metal # 553 without oxygen was around 8000-8300 yuan/ton. The market price of silicon metal # 441 in Kunming was around 8900-9100 yuan/ton. The market price reference for metallic silicon 441 # in Tianjin area is around 8200-8400 yuan/ton.
Fundamental information
In terms of supply and output: In June, the overall output and supply of the silicon metal market increased compared to May, with large factories gradually increasing production, mainly from Xinjiang and Southwest regions.
In terms of inventory: As of June 20th, the social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was about 560000 tons, a decrease of about 13000 tons compared to the previous week.
In terms of demand: Currently, downstream demand for metallic silicon is generally cautious, and downstream procurement is mainly focused on rigid demand procurement.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is light and mild, and the transmission between supply and demand is relatively loose. The metal silicon data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be closely monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been fluctuating and declining recently (6.18-6.25). As of June 25th, the spot rubber market price in China’s natural rubber market was around 13628 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.66% from 13858 yuan/ton on the 18th. Downstream semi steel tire production has slightly decreased, providing some rigid support for rubber; The slight decline in raw material prices, coupled with the continued increase in port inventories, still puts some pressure on the natural rubber market. As of June 25th, the mainstream price for 23 years of Guangken, Baodao, and Haibao latex in Qingdao area is 13600~13850 yuan/ton.
As of June 25th, the price of Thai glue was 57.50 baht/kg, unchanged from 57.50 baht/kg on June 18th. At present, the Yunnan production area in China has entered the cutting stage. Although Thailand and Hainan have recently experienced increased precipitation and high prices, the expected increase in global supply in the later stage is not reduced, and the price of natural rubber raw materials is expected to continue to decline in the later stage.
Recently (6.18-6.25), natural rubber inventories have slightly increased, which has a bearish impact on the natural rubber market. As of June 22, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 617300 tons, an increase of 10300 tons or 1.70% compared to the previous period.
Recently (6.18-6.25), there has been a slight fluctuation in downstream tire production, providing essential support for the natural rubber market. As of June 22, the production of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has slightly decreased to around 7.3%; Around 6.10% of tire companies in Shandong have started construction on all steel tires.
Market forecast: As domestic and international raw material prices stabilize at high levels and expectations continue to decline in the later stage, downstream production fluctuates slightly, providing support for natural rubber demand, and Tianjin Rubber Port inventory remains high; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will experience weak fluctuations in the later period.

price trend
According to the bulk ranking data of Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market has been stable with small fluctuations recently, and some spot prices of certain brands have been adjusted narrowly. As of June 24th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 14493.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -0.80% compared to early June.
cause analysis
On the supply side: As the end of June approaches, the load of domestic PC aggregation enterprises has fallen slightly. In the early months, the average operating level of the industry in the middle of the month was pushed up to 85%. Recently, there has been a technical upgrade task for the Cangzhou plant, and the operating rate of enterprises has been lowered, resulting in an industry operating rate of around 79%. The weekly average production has been narrowly reduced to 64000 tons, with limited production losses. At the same time, there is a lack of arrangements for future market load reduction, and PC inventory has remained high for a long time, resulting in abundant on-site supply. Manufacturers and midstream inventory levels remain high, with no reduction in shipping pressure, and there has been no improvement in the market supply side’s support for PC prices.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that bisphenol A remained stable with a slight increase in late June. Recently, the upstream crude oil market in the far end has fluctuated sharply after rising, and the market has poor transmission effect on the direct raw materials acetone and phenol for PC. Meanwhile, there has been little change in demand for bisphenol A, and the market lacks further upward momentum. Overall, the price increase of bisphenol A in this round of market is likely to be limited, and its support for PC costs is average.
On the demand side: With the gradual warming of the domestic climate, the downstream factories of PC are experiencing a decrease in load, and stocking is mainly due to weak demand, gradually entering the traditional off-season for consumption, further dragging down the PC consumer end. Due to the long-term weak market dynamics in the industry, high social inventory, and abundant on-site supply, the supply-demand contradiction did not improve at the end of June. Currently, terminal enterprises are cautious in purchasing new orders, and their trading performance continues to be dominated by contract delivery. Merchants tend to have a wait-and-see attitude, buyers are resistant to high priced goods, and the flow of goods in the market is slow. Overall, the demand side has weak support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
At the end of June, the domestic PC market was consolidating and operating. The upstream bisphenol A market has risen, but the increase is relatively small, which has limited support for the cost value of PC. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants has narrowly declined, while the pattern of strong supply remains unchanged. Downstream demand is at a low season level, and businesses are adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market. On the one hand, industry inventory remains high, and on the other hand, PC prices are low, with limited room for decline. Currently, the market is experiencing fluctuating positive news, and there is insufficient vitality in supply and demand. It is expected that the PC market will continue to focus on consolidation in the future.