According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market has fluctuated upward in this cycle. From December 1st to December 15th, 2025, the price of butadiene will increase from 6983.33 yuan/ton to 7400 yuan/ton, a rise of 5.97%. The domestic butadiene market has fluctuated upward in this cycle, and the recent trend of the butadiene market is relatively strong. Due to the increasing willingness of the supply side to raise prices and the linkage effect of the recent rise in external prices, it is difficult to find low-priced sources of butadiene in the domestic market. Recently, the trend of downstream synthetic rubber futures has been strong, and the utilization rate of production capacity of major downstream products such as butadiene rubber and styrene butadiene rubber remains high. The stable performance of procurement demand provides solid fundamental support for the butadiene market, driving the price fluctuation and rise of the butadiene market.
Cost wise: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 12th, the settlement price of the January WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $57.44 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February is $61.12 per barrel. The crude oil price market first fell and then rose in this cycle. At the beginning of this cycle, the regional situation eased slightly, and coupled with the weakening of US demand, the US tariff issue dragged down global economic and demand expectations, resulting in a low international oil price market. In the later stage, OPEC+oil producing countries postponed production increases, and the geopolitical peace agreement was unlikely to be reached. Geopolitical factors led to an upward trend in crude oil prices.
Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is 7350 yuan/ton, with an increase of 150 yuan/ton.
Shenghong Refining’s 200000 tons/year butadiene plant is operating normally, with an increase of 200 yuan/ton and an implementation of 7500 yuan/ton.
On the demand side: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 15th, the market for Shunding rubber in East China has been rising. Recently, the domestic synthetic rubber futures market has been fluctuating upwards, with some merchants offering a slight increase of 50-100 yuan/ton. At present, the mainstream prices for Daqing, Yangtze, and Qilu Shunding are 10800-11200 yuan/ton; Some private brands are priced around 10600~10800 yuan/ton. At present, there is a significant price difference between butadiene and synthetic rubber. The utilization rate of downstream butadiene rubber production capacity has reached a high of 76% this year, and the utilization rate of styrene butadiene rubber production capacity has also increased to over 80%. The downstream industry is operating steadily and the profit margin is still acceptable, which can effectively support the procurement demand for butadiene.
Market forecast: Overall, the short-term domestic butadiene market is expected to continue a strong and volatile pattern. With the support of favorable fundamentals, it is expected that there will still be some upward space in the spot market in the short term. In the future, two variables need to be focused on: the actual transaction follow-up situation in the market, and the rhythm of imported goods arriving at the port and the subsequent trend of synthetic rubber futures.

Cobalt prices have fluctuated and risen since November
According to the Commodity Cobalt Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the cobalt price on December 12th was 410620 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 21.02% compared to the cobalt price of 339300 yuan/ton on October 1st; Compared to November 5th, the cobalt price of 385700 yuan/ton fluctuated and rose by 6.46%. After the introduction of the export quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the country has added temporary royalty requirements and complex processes, adding uncertainty to the already tight cobalt supply chain. The expected shortage of cobalt supply in the international market has intensified, and cobalt prices have risen sharply.
Congo introduces quota system
In February 2025, the Strategic Mineral Market Supervision and Control Authority of the Democratic Republic of Congo announced a four month suspension of cobalt product exports in response to the global cobalt market oversupply; In June, the export ban was announced to be extended for three months; In September, the Strategic Mineral Market Supervision and Control Authority of the Democratic Republic of Congo announced on the 21st that the country would end the cobalt export ban implemented since February this year from October 15th, and switch to an export quota system on October 16th until further notice. For the remainder of this year, mining companies in the Democratic Republic of Congo will be allowed to export over 18000 tons of cobalt, with a maximum export volume of 96600 tons per year in 2026 and 2027. The government of the Democratic Republic of Congo has implemented a cobalt export quota system, resulting in a significant reduction in supply to the cobalt market in the country.
New regulations added in the Democratic Republic of Congo
The Ministry of Mines and the Ministry of Finance of the Democratic Republic of the Congo jointly announced on November 26 that cobalt exporters are required to prepay 10% of mining royalty fees and strengthen export supervision measures. The new regulations include mandatory quota review, joint sampling, batch weighing and sealing, as well as quota verification certificates (AVQ) issued by the Strategic Mineral Market Supervision Bureau (ARECOMS). Cobalt exporters are required to prepay 10% of the fee within 48 hours after submitting the country of origin and sales declaration, and obtain a “release receipt” before customs clearance. All mineral transportation must undergo on-site inspections and multi agency supervision. Due to unclear procedures and vague payment requirements, no goods have left the port so far. The stagnation of cobalt exports in the Democratic Republic of Congo has exacerbated the risk of cobalt shortage in the market, leading to a tight supply of cobalt.
Overview and Prospect
According to data analysts from Shengyi Society, the introduction of an export quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo has led to a shortage of supply in the cobalt market. The new regulations in the Democratic Republic of Congo have caused an increase in the cost of cobalt exports, and the unclear procedures for cobalt exports have resulted in a stagnation of cobalt exports in the country. As a result, the supply shortage in the cobalt market has intensified, leading to an increase in cobalt costs. Overall, due to supply shortages and rising costs, there is still room for cobalt prices to rise in the future.

Since December, the domestic ABS market has continued to weaken and trend, with most grades of spot prices being lowered. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 10th, the average price of ABS sample products was 8375.00 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -2.36% compared to the end of November.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: Since early December, the operating rate of the domestic ABS industry has increased. Within the interval, Jilin Petrochemical’s load has increased, and some equipment maintenance tasks of Zhejiang Petrochemical have ended. The overall operating level of the industry is around 70%, and the weekly average production is over 145000 tons. The on-site supply remains abundant, and the inventory position of the aggregation enterprise is close to 260000 tons, holding firm at a high level. Overall, the long-term loose supply pattern in the ABS market remains unchanged, and the supply side’s support for ABS spot prices continues to be weak.
Cost factor: In early December, the upstream three materials market of ABS experienced more declines than gains, which had a negative impact on the cost side of ABS. The capacity utilization rate of the acrylonitrile industry remains above 80%, with an increase in excess inventory and market volatility. However, downstream users have abundant inventory, average purchasing enthusiasm, and poor trading in the spot market. There are still expectations of a short-term downturn, but cost pressure continues to exist, which still restricts the downward space of the market.
The market situation of butadiene within ten days is similar to that of acrylonitrile, with abundant supply and weak downstream demand. Under the dual negative impact, the overall volatility of the butadiene market is weak. At the same time, there has been no significant improvement in the downstream synthetic rubber market, and there is a lack of positive support within the market. It is expected that the butadiene market will continue to have a weak and volatile trend in the future, with a focus on inventory digestion.
At the beginning of this month, the styrene market rose. Although the raw material pure benzene market is constrained by demand and hindered from rising. However, recently there have been many unplanned shutdowns of styrene plants, and the supply side is gradually strengthening. At the same time, downstream profits have recovered and production has rebounded, with demand steadily following suit. The supply and demand of styrene in the future may continue to maintain a tight balance pattern, and prices may mainly fluctuate within a range.
On the demand side: In the early stage, the consumption of ABS’s main downstream electrical appliance shell industry weakened, resulting in unsatisfactory profitability for end enterprises and no increase in future production. There is no significant increase in downstream demand for ABS, and the overall stocking logic of buyers still maintains a strong demand for replenishment, resulting in slow supply flow. The inventory position of merchants is also at a high level of stalemate, and under the increasing pressure of de stocking in the field, enterprises and merchants continue to offer discounts and take orders. According to customs data, the export market has generally remained flat, with limited support for industry consumption. The domestic and foreign markets maintain a cautious atmosphere, and the industry lacks momentum. Overall, there has been no improvement in the demand side’s support for the ABS market.
Future forecast
The domestic ABS market maintained a downward trend in early December. The production load of the aggregation plant has slightly increased, while consumer demand has remained low and flat. Business analysts believe that the long-term supply-demand imbalance of ABS has plagued the market, dragging down spot prices. At the same time, the upstream three material market has risen and fallen, and the mentality of the industry is negative, giving up profits and taking orders. In the short term, there is a lack of positive guidance, and it is expected that downward pressure on ABS will still exist.

price trend
According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market turned positive in early December, with most spot prices of various brands rising. As of December 10th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 13983.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of+0.48% compared to the end of November.
Root cause analysis
Supply side: In early December, the overall load of domestic PC aggregation enterprises increased and then decreased. At the beginning of the month, the maintenance task of Pingmei Shenma was completed and gradually restarted. Recently, the rotation and maintenance plan for multiple production lines of Zhejiang Petrochemical has been implemented, causing the industry’s operating rate to drop below 80% and the weekly average production to approach 67000 tons. Due to the tight supply of basic grade materials and the early digestion of inventory, the position is relatively controllable. Against the backdrop of decent production and sales pressure within the venue, several aggregation factories have seen a significant increase in ex factory pricing. Overall, the PC supply side has strengthened its support for PC.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the bisphenol A market rose in early December. Although the upstream price of phenol and acetone has bottomed out and remained flat, it is difficult to say whether it is beneficial for the bisphenol A market. However, after digestion in November, the inventory pressure of bisphenol A factory has eased. At the same time, the spot price fell to a low level in the early stage, and enterprises and merchants increased their price raising operations, leading to a rebound in the market after building a bottom in the early stage. On the other hand, the improvement in the consumer side of bisphenol A is limited, and the actual trading atmosphere is average. It is expected that the price increase of bisphenol A in the future may be limited, which will slightly improve the support for PC costs.
On the demand side: Affected by the weakened profitability of terminal enterprises, the load position of PC downstream factories is still not ideal, and stocking is maintained at a low buying price, with weak demand levels. The response of finished product e-commerce and overseas markets is average, and PC terminal enterprises have conservative production schedules. Merchants within the range are following the rise of the aggregation factory, but buyers are cautious in their follow-up attitude. However, there is a strong bullish atmosphere in the future, and the actual transaction price has raised the focus of spot trading. Overall, the demand side provides moderate support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
In early December, the domestic PC market saw a significant increase in prices. The upstream bisphenol A market has stopped falling but has risen, and the cost value has increased to support PC. After the increase in load of domestic PC aggregation plants, they have lowered their prices, and there is an expectation of tightening the basic grades in the future market. The bullish atmosphere in the market is still present. However, the market trading situation remains moderate, and it is expected that the short-term rise in PC prices may be limited.

In early December, the domestic PS market was mainly focused on consolidation and operation. Most spot prices of certain brands have limited fluctuations. According to the bulk ranking data of Shengyi Society, as of December 9th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s PS was 7533.33 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase or decrease of+0.44%.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: Recently, the operating rate of the domestic polystyrene industry has continued to rise steadily, with the overall load narrowly increased to about 61%. The supply of genuine materials is abundant, with only a few models experiencing tight supply. The current inventory position is relatively controllable, and there are still expectations of relaxed market supply. Overall, the supply side’s support for PS is average.
Cost factor: The styrene market rose at the beginning of this month. Although the raw material pure benzene market is constrained by demand and hindered from rising. However, recently there have been many unplanned shutdowns of styrene plants, and the supply side is gradually strengthening. At the same time, downstream profits have recovered and production has rebounded, with demand steadily following suit. The supply and demand of styrene in the future may continue to maintain a tight balance pattern, with prices likely to fluctuate within a range, providing sufficient support for the cost side of PS.
On the demand side: Affected by the weakened profitability of terminal enterprises, the downstream electrical casing industry of PS has seen a significant decline in production compared to the same period last year, and there is no expected increase in terminal load in the future. The downstream demand for PS is increasing rapidly, and the overall stocking logic of the enterprise is maintaining a high demand for replenishment, resulting in a slowdown in the flow rate of goods supply. Merchants’ inventory positions are deadlocked, the market maintains a cautious atmosphere, and trading momentum is average. Overall, the demand side provides average support for the PS market.
Future forecast
At the beginning of December, the domestic PS market fluctuated strongly. After the production load of the aggregation plant increased, it remained strong, and consumer demand was mainly balanced. Business analysts believe that upstream styrene has currently risen to a high range, and the subsequent increase may be limited. At the same time, there is a lack of positive guidance on the demand side of PS in the short term, and it is expected that it may enter a consolidation market.