Aluminum prices stop falling and rebound in July
The trend of domestic aluminum ingot prices is expected to decline in July 2026. As of July 22, 2026, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 23186.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.12% from the market average price of 22270 yuan/ton on July 1.
The main reasons for the rebound of aluminum prices in July are as follows:
1. Macro expectations are warming up:
The employment and inflation data in the United States have weakened, market expectations of interest rate hikes have cooled down, the US dollar has weakened, and industrial metals priced in US dollars have seen a recovery. The concentrated liquidation of short positions in the early stage has driven a rebound.
2. Significant inventory depletion:
The traditional off-season in China continues to significantly reduce inventory, causing LME aluminum inventories to fall to multi-year lows and tight supply of goods, consolidating the bottom of prices.
3. Supply rigid constraints:
The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 45 million tons has been capped, and the operating rate is close to full capacity; The slow resumption of production by aluminum plants in the Middle East, continuous reduction in high electricity prices in Europe and America, and limited global supply growth.
4. Demand resilience exceeds expectations:
Aluminum exports are on the rise, and the demand for lightweight and essential materials in ultra-high voltage, photovoltaic, and new energy vehicles is stable, offsetting the drag of traditional profiles during the off-season and replenishing downstream inventory at low prices.
5. Oversold repair market:
At the end of June, the short-term sharp drop in aluminum prices released a large amount of bearish sentiment, with prices severely oversold and funds buying at low levels driving a rebound.
The logic of aluminum price operation in July:
At the end of June, prices were dragged down by the diminishing Middle East geopolitical premium, strong expectations of Fed interest rate hikes, expectations of a summer consumption off-season, and concentrated bearish pressure; In mid to late July, the weakening of US economic data led to a cooling of interest rate expectations and a weakening of the US dollar. Coupled with the continuous decline in domestic and foreign aluminum inventories, the peak of domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and strong supply rigidity due to the coexistence of overseas production resumption and reduction, the demand in emerging fields such as photovoltaics and new energy is bottoming out and downstream inventory is being replenished at a low level. In addition, short covering has pushed prices to stop falling and recover. However, the weak off-season of traditional real estate profiles, long-term overseas new production capacity, and high interest rate environment still limit the extent of price increases, resulting in an overall oversold recovery and volatile market.
Aluminum price forecast for the future:
Short term aluminum prices rely on low inventory, rigid supply, and loose macro expectations to fluctuate strongly, but the traditional off-season suppresses the increase; The peak season for downstream new energy and power grid demand in September and October is expected to drive prices slightly upwards, with upward potential constrained by overseas new production capacity and high interest rates; The long-term domestic production capacity cap supports the central uplift of the price bottom, and the release of overseas production capacity at the end of the year may bring a pullback, resulting in overall range fluctuations. We need to be alert to market fluctuations caused by geopolitical factors, Federal Reserve policies, and changes in real estate demand.

Since July 2026, the natural rubber market has been fluctuating and consolidating. As of July 21st, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 16758 yuan/ton, down 0.20% from 16791 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, mainly fluctuating and consolidating during the cycle. ​
The increase in production on the supply side is offset by weather disturbances. Southeast Asia has entered the peak season for rubber cutting. As of July 21st, the natural rubber adhesive produced in Thailand was priced at 78.00 baht/kg, and the cup adhesive was priced at 70.50 baht/kg, with a year-on-year increase of over 40%, forming a bottom support for raw material costs; Periodic rainfall in the main production areas interferes with rubber cutting and temporarily inhibits the release of new rubber. ANRPC data shows that the total global production of natural rubber in May was 997000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%. The supply and demand remained slightly short throughout the year, and the long-term bullish expectation of El Ni ñ o continued to exist.
The off-season pressure on the demand side significantly suppresses the upward space. As of July 16th, the domestic semi steel tire production rate was 6.0%; The operating load of all steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises is 6.20%, and the companies take turns to inspect and control production, resulting in a widespread reduction in production. The inventory days of Shandong tire products exceed 40 days, and factories only need to purchase and use them as needed, resulting in a low willingness to actively replenish inventory. Only the rise in crude oil prices has driven up the cost of synthetic rubber, slightly restoring the comparative advantage of natural rubber. The EU’s anti-dumping policies on the export side continue to suppress export orders. ​
The inventory has been slightly reduced but still relatively high. As of July 19, 2026, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 667400 tons, a decrease of 1900 tons compared to the previous period. The pace of inventory reduction is slow and it is difficult to reverse the loose spot pattern. ​
Market forecast:
From a technical perspective, natural rubber prices will rise from late March to mid June 2026, with the 10 day and mid-term 20 day moving averages moving upwards simultaneously. The bullish alignment of moving averages will support the upward trend, and prices will continue to fluctuate based on various moving averages. In mid to late June, the market turned around and prices quickly plummeted, falling below the 10 day and 20 day moving averages consecutively. The short-term moving averages turned downwards, forming bearish pressure. Recently, the current price has slightly wrapped around the 10 day line, and the continuous downward trend of the 20 day line has created upward pressure. The overall trend has shifted from long to short, with a clear bearish pattern on the medium-term moving average. In the short term, there has been only a slight oversold repair, and the rebound strength is limited. ​
Fundamentally speaking, natural rubber maintains a range of fluctuations in the short term. If Southeast Asia continues to experience heavy rainfall that interferes with rubber cutting, there may be a slight rebound potential; If the weather in the production area improves and new rubber is concentrated on the market, prices will come under pressure and fall. After the completion of downstream maintenance in mid August, production is expected to rebound, coupled with the expectation of “golden September and silver October” consumption, the center of gravity of rubber prices may slightly shift upward.

Since July, after a weak consolidation, the adipic acid market has seen an increase. On July 1st, the average market price of adipic acid was 7816 yuan/ton, and on July 20th, the average market price of adipic acid was 7933 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.49%.
The main factors affecting the rise and fall of adipic acid market during this stage
Supply side: The industry average operating rate is below 60%; Multiple sets of main equipment underwent centralized maintenance and reduced load operation in July, resulting in a contraction of spot supply and slow depletion of social inventory. Under the loss of the factory, there is no willingness to ship in large quantities, the circulation of spot goods is limited, and low-priced sources are scarce, limiting the downward space.
Demand side: Traditional off-season in the entire industry, rigid demand procurement, no bulk replenishment (core bearish logic). The downstream of adipic acid has fully entered the traditional off-season of July and August, which is the biggest suppression of this round of market: the production of polyurethane PU synthetic leather slurry and sole stock solution factories is generally less than 50%; The orders for terminal shoes, clothing, and synthetic leather are scarce, and downstream suppliers continue to reduce raw material inventory, only maintaining daily demand for goods. The willingness to chase price increases is extremely low, and it is difficult to complete high priced orders.
Technical level prediction
Key indicator: After the 10 day moving average crossed the 20 day moving average on July 2nd, it showed an upward trend on July 18th. In late July, the average price difference of adipic acid decreased positively, indicating that the price increase of adipic acid slowed down and the probability of adipic acid falling in the future increased.
Auxiliary indicators: In late July, the price of adipic acid was at a 10 day high, a 20 day high, and a 30 day high. It also confirms to some extent that the adipic acid market was at a high level in late July and will face a downward trend at the end of the month.
In summary, the forecast for supply and demand shows that supply pressure has eased, demand is weak, and the trend of adipic acid weakening at the end of July is evident. From a technical perspective, it can be seen that the upward momentum of the adipic acid market at the end of July was insufficient. Therefore, at the end of July, the overall trend of adipic acid market fluctuated and fell, with an expected price between 7500 yuan/ton and 8000 yuan/ton.

As of July 17, 2026, the spot market price of gold was 871.39 yuan/gram, a decrease of 39.68 yuan/gram (-4.36%) compared to the spot market price of 911.07 yuan/gram at the beginning of this month (July 3); Compared to the spot market price of 898.99 yuan/gram at the beginning of this month (July 10th), the price has decreased by 27.6 yuan/gram (-3.07%).
On July 17th, the price of gold continued to decline, and in terms of spot trading:
On July 17, 2026, the benchmark price of Shanghai Gold (gold ingots with a standard weight of 1 kilogram and a purity of not less than 99.99%; pricing contract) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 872.37 yuan/gram in the afternoon session, up 3.48 yuan/gram (0.40%) from the earlier benchmark price of 868.89 yuan/gram; Compared to the benchmark price of 878.07 yuan/gram in the afternoon session of the previous trading day, it decreased by 5.7 yuan/gram (-0.65%).
In terms of futures:
On July 17, 2026, the opening price of the Shanghai Gold Main Contract was 870.64 yuan/gram, and the closing price was 873.72 yuan/gram, a decrease of 1.03% from yesterday’s settlement price of 882.80 yuan/gram.
Reasons for the recent decline in precious metal gold
The recent decline in gold is mainly due to strong US economic data, hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials, and rising market expectations of interest rate hikes, which have pushed up US bond yields and the US dollar index, significantly suppressing interest free gold; The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has pushed up oil prices and exacerbated inflation concerns, further strengthening expectations of tightening. Safe haven funds have turned to the US dollar, coupled with the off-season of physical demand, concentrated reduction of speculative long positions, and capital flow to the stock market. Multiple factors have jointly driven the weakening of gold prices. as follows:
1. Federal Reserve officials are collectively hawkish, and expectations of interest rate hikes are heating up. Dallas and Kansas have publicly stated that inflation is stubborn and the monthly cooling is not enough to stop tightening; The market is betting that the probability of a 25bp interest rate hike in December 2026 will increase to 75%. The high interest rate environment weakens the value of gold holdings, causing speculative bulls to concentrate and exit.
2. The Middle East conflict has abnormally suppressed gold prices. The US military’s airstrikes on Iranian ports and increased shipping risks in the Mandeb Strait have pushed up crude oil prices. The market is concerned that energy will once again push up inflation, which in turn strengthens the expectation of the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates. Safe haven funds have turned to the US dollar instead of gold, creating a rare conflict that is bearish on the gold price market.
3. The resilience of US economic data exceeded expectations. Retail and employment data are improving, dispelling the market’s illusion of rapid interest rate cuts. US Treasury yields continue to rise, which continues to suppress precious metal prices.
Future forecast of precious metal gold prices

In the short term, gold in the third quarter is expected to fluctuate weakly due to hawkish interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and high US bond yields. London gold is likely to operate in the range of $3800-4200; In the fourth quarter, there may be a turning point in the market, with the negative impact of interest rate hikes combined with the continued buying of gold at low prices by the central bank and the recovery of physical consumption at the end of the year. The gold price is expected to fluctuate and repair upwards, with a year-end benchmark of $4300-4500. If the geopolitical situation deteriorates or the economy weakens, it is expected to rise, and if it continues to tighten, it may fall to $3700-3900; In 2027, with the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut cycle, weakened US dollar credit, and long-term gold purchasing support from the central bank, gold will restart an upward bull market, and silver’s volatility will be significantly greater than gold’s. Domestic Shanghai gold and jewelry gold prices will also follow external fluctuations, and it is necessary to pay close attention to US inflation data, real US bond yields, Federal Reserve policies, and changes in the geopolitical situation.

Cobalt prices stop rising and fall in July
On July 16th, the cobalt price was 378800 yuan/ton, which first rose and then fell by 0.42% compared to the cobalt price of 380400 yuan/ton on June 30th; Compared to July 10th, the cobalt price dropped by 383800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.77%. At the end of June, cobalt prices stopped falling and rose. In early July, cobalt prices were strongly consolidating, downstream demand was weak, and cobalt prices fell rapidly.
Supply side: The growth of cobalt recycling alleviates the tight supply in the cobalt market
The Strategic Mineral Market Supervision Bureau of the Democratic Republic of Congo officially announced on June 30, 2026 the treatment plan for unused cobalt export quotas in the first half of 2026: unused quotas will be directly invalidated and reclassified into the national strategic quota pool, and enterprises will no longer be allowed to carry over to the second half of the year for use. The tight supply of cobalt raw materials in the Democratic Republic of Congo has intensified.
In 2025, the supply of recycled cobalt in China will be about 23000 metal tons. By 2026, the supply of recycled cobalt in the first half of the year has reached 21000 metal tons, and it is expected to reach 45000 to 50000 metal tons for the whole year, which can meet 35% of China’s cobalt demand. The significant increase in cobalt recycling has greatly alleviated the supply shortage in the cobalt market.
Demand side: downstream weakness intensifies
On July 15th, data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers showed that from July 1st to 12th, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market reached 280000 units, a decrease of 8% compared to the same period last July and a decrease of 3% compared to the same period last month. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative retail sales have reached 4.984 million units, a decrease of 14% year-on-year; From July 1st to 12th, Chinese passenger car manufacturers wholesale 262000 new energy vehicles, a decrease of 9% compared to the same period last July and a decrease of 15% compared to the same period last month. Since the beginning of this year, a total of 7.05 million vehicles have been wholesale, a year-on-year increase of 4%. In July, the retail sales of new energy vehicles both decreased on a month on month basis, and the sales performance of new energy vehicles was poor. The weak terminal demand in the cobalt market intensified.
In June, the installed capacity of ternary batteries in China was 12.7GWh, accounting for 16.5% of the total installed capacity, a decrease of 5.5% compared to the previous month and an increase of 18.1% year-on-year; The proportion of ternary battery installation has decreased, and the total installation volume has decreased month on month. The cobalt consumption of ternary batteries has also decreased, and the weak demand in the cobalt market has intensified.
Market Overview and Future Outlook
Analysts believe that the sales of new energy vehicles have declined, the installation volume of ternary batteries has decreased, the cobalt market continued to be weak in July, and demand has further declined. However, the supply of cobalt raw materials in the Democratic Republic of Congo has not been restored for a long time, and the unused quota in the first half of the year has been invalidated, exacerbating the shortage of cobalt supply in the market; But the significant increase in cobalt recycling has greatly alleviated the supply shortage in the cobalt market. In the context of weak supply and demand in the cobalt market, the cobalt market may be seeking a weak balance. The supply-demand gap in the cobalt market may not meet market expectations, and the supply-demand gap may tighten, resulting in insufficient support for cobalt price increases. Overall, the weak supply and demand situation in the cobalt market continues, and in the short term, it is expected that cobalt prices will fluctuate weakly and consolidate in the future. In the medium to long term, the supply shortage in the cobalt market is difficult to change, and there is still room for cobalt prices to rise.