Precious metal prices fall in March
As of March 30, 2026, the early market price of gold spot was 1005.93 yuan/gram, a decrease of 12.14% compared to the gold spot market price of 1144.88 yuan/gram at the beginning of this month (March 1).
On the 30th, the gold price slightly rebounded within the day. In terms of spot trading:
On March 30, 2026, Shanghai Gold Exchange quoted a benchmark price of 1011.43 yuan/gram for Shanghai Gold (gold ingots with a standard weight of 1 kilogram and a purity of not less than 99.99%; pricing contract) at noon; The benchmark price for the earlier session was 999.56 yuan/gram, an increase of 11.87 yuan/gram (1.19%); Compared to the benchmark price of 995.34 yuan/gram at noon on the previous trading day (3.27), it has increased by 16.09 yuan/gram (1.62%).
In terms of futures:
The main contract of Shanghai Gold on March 30, 2026, opened at 993.46 yuan/gram and closed at 1014.88 yuan/gram, up 2.28% from yesterday’s settlement price of 992.24 yuan/gram.
Reasons for the rebound of precious metal gold on March 30, 2026
On March 30, 2026, precious metal gold slightly rebounded and rose, which was the result of the correction of expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the bottoming out of central bank gold purchases, fluctuating geopolitical risk aversion, and a technical oversold rebound. Here are the specific reasons:
1. Pricing of Federal Reserve Rate Reduction Expectations
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting released a super hawkish signal, maintaining high interest rates of 3.5% -3.75%, reducing the expected annual rate cuts from three to one, and delaying the first rate cut until September. US bond yields soared, the US dollar strengthened, and gold prices plummeted. In late March, the US CPI and non farm payroll data fell short of expectations, and the market re priced the path of interest rate cuts. CME data shows that the probability of the first interest rate cut in September has rebounded to 75%, and the expectation of a downward trend in real interest rates has resumed. Funds are flowing back to gold from the US dollar and US Treasury bonds.
The slight rebound of precious metal gold on June 30, 2026 is a repair to the expectation of “delayed but not cancelled interest rate cuts”.
2. Strong Fundamental Support: Global Central Banks Continue to Purchase Gold (Bottom Support)
The People’s Bank of China has increased its holdings of gold for 16 consecutive months, and its reserve scale continues to expand; Global central banks are expected to purchase a net of 863 tons of gold in 2025, and it is expected to remain at a high level (about 755 tons) in 2026. Poland and other countries will increase their holdings significantly, forming a “national level buying market” and greatly reducing the potential for a deep decline in gold prices.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province rose this week (3.23-3.27), with an average market price of 16950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 17050 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.59%.
The domestic magnesium ingot market has emerged from a volatile upward trend and stabilized at a high level, with an overall strong market trend and a steady upward shift in price focus, without a significant correction. The main reasons for the fluctuation of magnesium prices in this round are the rise in raw material costs, supply side control of quantity and price, and the result of multi-party games to maintain demand stability.
supply side
This week, the domestic magnesium ingot supply side performed steadily, and the operating rate in the main production areas remained stable, without large-scale resumption or reduction of production. In terms of inventory, it is at a historical low during the same period, with both internal and external inventory being relatively low, and there is a scarcity of available spot goods. Affected by cost pressure, manufacturers have a strong mentality of holding back prices and being reluctant to sell. Top companies have clearly refused to sell at low prices and prioritized the execution of long-term orders in the early stage. The spot market has limited investment, and low-priced sources continue to dry up. The tightening of the supply side has provided strong support for prices.
Demand side:
This week, the demand for magnesium ingots has shown moderate performance, with the overall focus on rigid procurement. There has been no large-scale replenishment or centralized procurement, which is also the main reason for the slowdown in the rise of magnesium prices and the high-level stalemate. The export orders for magnesium ingots have remained stable with no significant increase, and the demand from overseas markets has limited impact on the domestic market. Overall, the demand side is not lagging behind but has not shown any outstanding performance, and the forces of supply and demand are tending towards balance, forming a high-level stalemate pattern.
Cost side:
Ferrosilicon, as the core reducing agent in magnesium smelting, accounts for over 30% of the production cost. This week, the price of 72 # ferrosilicon is running strong. The current price increase of ferrosilicon is mainly affected by disturbances in overseas mineral supply. The Australian typhoon caused the suspension of manganese ore shipments, driving the overall strength of the ferroalloy sector. In addition, the low operating rate of domestic ferrosilicon manufacturers and tight spot supply provide strong cost support for magnesium prices. The prices of blue charcoal and coal have risen simultaneously, further pushing up the cost of smelting. Affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the rise in international oil prices, the demand for coal substitution has increased, and domestic prices of blue charcoal and thermal coal have remained stable and strengthened.
comprehensive analysis
Based on the two core factors of comprehensive cost and supply and demand, it is difficult for domestic magnesium prices to experience significant fluctuations in the short term, and it is highly likely to maintain a high volatility trend We need to pay close attention to the price trends of raw materials such as ferrosilicon and coal in the future. If the raw materials continue to strengthen, magnesium prices are expected to break through the current range.

At the end of March, the domestic ABS market was operating at a high level, with some spot prices of certain grades fluctuating. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 26th, the average price of ABS sample products was 12000 yuan/ton, with a price level increase of 34.43% compared to the beginning of the month.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: In the second half of the month, the domestic ABS industry will restart and undergo maintenance, with overall limited load changes. The overall operating level of the industry is around 69%, with an average weekly output of nearly 150000 tons, and finished product inventory levels have rebounded to 200000 tons. After the addition, there will be little change in the short-term production of the market, and the on-site supply will shift from tight balance to abundant. Overall, the support for spot prices from the ABS supply side is stable but weak.
Cost factor: In late March, the volatile situation in the Middle East continued to raise concerns among industry players. And some countries have significantly reduced their crude oil production due to force majeure. Combined with the firm stance of OPEC+production cuts, international oil prices have been fluctuating at high levels recently. The upstream three materials of ABS, which belong to the same petrochemical products, have basically increased at a high level. The price increase of acrylonitrile in the market has further expanded. Due to the decrease in port arrivals, domestic spot sales have been smooth, and even partial export windows have emerged. The main supplier’s quotation has remained firm and increased.

price trend
In the past week (March 18-24, 2026), the domestic PA6 market has shown an overall high-level stalemate and narrow range oscillation trend, with a slight increase in the price center and no significant unilateral rise or fall. The overall situation is in a game pattern of strong cost support and insufficient demand follow-up. The market’s low-priced supply is gradually decreasing, and the transaction of high priced supply is hindered. Manufacturers’ offers are relatively firm, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is weak. Transactions are mainly based on small orders for essential needs, while large orders have limited volume. The trading atmosphere is relatively light, and the overall market trend is completely dominated by cost transmission and supply-demand game. On March 24th, the benchmark price of PA6 in Shengyi Society was 14166.67 yuan/ton, an increase of about 0.95% compared to 14033.33 yuan/ton on March 18th.
influencing factors
In terms of cost:
Recently, international oil prices have fluctuated, and pure benzene prices have remained stable at high levels. Sinopec’s weekly closing price of caprolactam has remained high. Although the month on month increase has narrowed, it is still in the high range, directly pushing up the raw material procurement costs of PA6 polymerization enterprises and consolidating the bottom support for PA6 prices. According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, the benchmark price of caprolactam has risen from 12332.50 yuan/ton to 12577.50 yuan/ton in the past week, with a weekly increase of about 1.99%.
Supply side:
In the past week, the supply of PA6 industry has slightly increased compared to the previous period. The polymerization units that were previously repaired have gradually resumed production, and some new production capacity has been slightly released. The supply of spot production capacity in the industry has steadily increased. There is currently no large-scale centralized maintenance plan for mainstream production enterprises, and inventory pressure is gradually accumulating slightly. Manufacturers’ willingness to ship has moderately increased.
In terms of demand:
In terms of downstream terminals, the textile and chemical fiber industry has fully resumed work, and the operating rate has steadily rebounded. However, the acceptance of the current high PA6 price is low, and there is a strong wait-and-see attitude. Generally, the practice of hoarding goods in advance is abandoned, and a conservative procurement strategy of on-demand procurement and small order replenishment is adopted. Only basic production needs are maintained, and there is no centralized replenishment or bulk procurement action.
Market forecast:
In the short term, the PA6 market is likely to maintain a high level of narrow range oscillation and weak consolidation trend, with the core logic of cost support and demand suppression. It is difficult for prices to experience significant unilateral fluctuations in the short term, and overall stability is the main trend with slight fluctuations. Pay close attention to the price changes of caprolactam raw materials and the downstream demand follow-up situation, and the cost side trend will become the core variable that dominates the short-term market.

In March 2026, the domestic butadiene rubber market emerged from a wide range of independent fluctuations and significant surges, breaking the previous consolidation pattern. The price center of gravity shifted significantly during the month, mainly driven by the strong pull of the cost side and the expectation of tight supply. Downstream demand follow-up was cautious, showing an overall operating characteristic of “cost bottoming out, supply reluctance to sell, and rigid demand follow-up”.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 24th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 17420 yuan/ton, an increase of 33.90% from 13010 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Enterprises have significantly increased their supply prices one after another, and market merchants’ offers have followed suit.
The turbulent geopolitical situation in the Middle East has led to a rise in international crude oil prices, with tight supply of butadiene and a significant increase in prices, supported by the strong cost of butadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 24th, the price of butadiene was 16766 yuan/ton, an increase of 67.78% from 9993 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has led to a rise in international crude oil prices, causing a tight supply of butadiene and a significant increase in prices. As a result, butadiene rubber production enterprises have suffered deep losses and are forced to engage in load reduction and shutdown operations. The overall capacity utilization rate of the industry has significantly declined, and some companies still plan to conduct centralized maintenance in April.
Supply and demand side: Since March, downstream tire production has gradually increased, providing essential support for the Shunding rubber market. As of March 19th, the construction of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has reached around 7.8%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has reached about 70%.
Overall, in the short term, the market for butadiene rubber is expected to maintain a pattern of high volatility and strong strength. The core support is still the high cost of butadiene and the supply tightening pressure brought by equipment maintenance. If the geopolitical situation continues to be tense, it is difficult for raw material prices to have a significant decline; But high prices will further suppress downstream demand, and weak transactions will constrain upward potential, with prices likely to fluctuate at high levels.