1、 Price trend: Supply and demand gap drives prices to historic highs
This week, the sulfur market showed a unilateral surge. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of June 9th, the benchmark price of sulfur reached 9200 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.67% compared to the beginning of this month (7500 yuan/ton), setting a new historical high.
From the price curve of Shengyi Society, this round of rise presents a “three-stage” characteristic:
From March 11th to late April: After two rounds of fluctuations, prices stabilized and the bottom support gradually rose;
From early May to early June, prices entered a steady upward trend, with the center of gravity shifting from the 6000 yuan/ton range to around 7500 yuan/ton;
3. June 2nd to June 8th: The market entered an accelerated explosive stage, and the daily increase continued to expand from June 5th. On June 8th, the daily increase reached 14.52%, and the price jumped from 8033.33 yuan/ton to 9200 yuan/ton.
From the perspective of the moving average system, the Business Society’s 10 day moving average and 20 day moving average form a strong bullish alignment. The 10 day moving average consistently runs above the 20 day moving average, and the moving average continues to widen, clearly indicating a “rising acceleration” signal; Starting from June 3rd, prices quickly climbed from the “median” to the “one-year high” range, igniting market sentiment.
2、 Supply side contraction is the dominant factor in the market
1. International supply side:
The international sulfur market remained strong at a high level this cycle, with supply contraction becoming the core contradiction:
Kazakhstan’s sulfur supply has decreased, while the Middle East and Russia continue to experience shortages, leading to a further tightening of global sulfur supply;
The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has been fluctuating, with the Strait of Hormuz still closed and the flow of imported resources obstructed. Qatar and Kuwait raised the official sulfur FOB price to $805/ton in June, an increase of $40-65/ton month on month, further pushing up import costs;
The port inventory continues to decrease. As of June 5th, the domestic port sulfur inventory was only 919400 tons, a decrease of 68100 tons or 6.90% compared to the previous month. The shortage of imported goods has exacerbated the shortage of spot goods.
2. Domestic supply side:
Domestic major refineries have launched a supply guarantee mode for phosphate fertilizer enterprises, suspending resource supply to non phosphate fertilizer enterprises. The external procurement volume of chemical enterprises has passively increased, and the expectation of tightening spot supply has risen;
The impact of equipment maintenance is evident, with the shutdown of the first phase of the Chuandongbei gas field and a reduction in supply from Xintai Petrochemical. The national weekly production has dropped to 217200 tons, a decrease of 4000 tons compared to the previous period;
Regional quotations have generally increased, with major refineries in East China, Central China, North China and other regions raising their quotations by 400-1900 yuan/ton. Northeast refineries have stabilized their prices and shipped, with strong overall supply side support.
The data from Shengyi Society confirms the tense situation on the supply side: the average price of domestic solid sulfur is 8064 yuan/ton, an increase of 672 yuan/ton or 9.09% from May 29th; The price of granular sulfur at Zhenjiang Port is 8750 yuan/ton, an increase of 1330 yuan/ton or 17.92% compared to May 29th. The port’s increase is significantly higher than that of domestic production, reflecting a greater shortage of imported resources.

3、 Demand side:
The overall situation of downstream sulfur in this cycle presents a contradictory pattern of “shrinking demand but difficult to change gap”:
Downstream price differentiation, with the prices of sulfuric acid, monoammonium phosphate, and diammonium phosphate rising with the increase of raw materials, and the prices of titanium dioxide and caprolactam falling, indicating that some downstream chemical companies have insufficient tolerance for high priced raw materials;
The capacity utilization rate has generally declined, with the capacity utilization rates of the ammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate industries dropping to 44.43% and 34.09%, respectively. Some downstream enterprises have been dragged down by high prices and have reduced or stopped production, resulting in a certain contraction in demand;
But the core contradiction in the current market is the large supply gap, strong short-term merchant replenishment sentiment, rapid rise in the electronic market, and reluctance of holders to sell to support the market. The dominant logic of price increases is still the supply side rather than the demand side.
4、 Outlook for the future: The high-level strong pattern is difficult to change in the short term, and attention should be paid to two major variables
According to the signals from the Business Society Spot Market Analysis System, the sulfur market is currently in an accelerated upward phase, with the difference between the 10 day moving average and the 20 day moving average continuing to widen. Prices are at a high level throughout the entire cycle, and the short-term strong pattern is difficult to reverse
If the navigation in the Strait of Hormuz continues to be blocked, import arrivals remain limited, port inventory continues to decline, merchant replenishment operations continue, port sulfur prices are expected to continue to rise, and domestic sulfur quotations will also follow suit;
2. If the downstream load reduction and production stoppage range expands, the transmission of high prices is hindered, market sentiment may cool down, and prices may enter a high-level consolidation stage, but the probability of a significant decline is low under the support of the supply-demand gap.
Focus on three key indicators in the future:
One is the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the pace of sulfur shipments from the Middle East;
Secondly, whether the domestic refinery supply guarantee policy has been adjusted, as well as the progress of equipment maintenance;
The third is the change in operating rates of downstream phosphate fertilizer and chemical enterprises, which raises concerns about the risk of demand shrinking beyond expectations under high prices.

1、 Market Review
In the past week (as of June 7, 2026), the domestic PA6 market has continued to decline weakly, with the decline gradually expanding, and there is a lack of favorable support for both costs and supply and demand sides. According to the monitoring of Shengyi Society, the benchmark price of PA6 fell from 12300 yuan/ton in early June to 11700 yuan/ton on June 7th, a decrease of about 4.88%.
2、 Cause analysis
The price of core raw material caprolactam continues to weaken, which seriously lacks cost support for PA6. As of early June, the benchmark price of caprolactam has dropped from 12887.50 yuan/ton in early May to 11100 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decline of over 6% in May alone, directly driving down the production cost of PA6. The price decline of caprolactam narrowed in the first week of June, but there has been no signal of a rebound, and the cost side is still bearish.
The supply-demand pattern continues to be weak, with loose supply combined with weak demand, further suppressing prices:
Supply side: The operating rate of PA6 plant remains high, coupled with the concentrated release of new production capacity in the early stage, the overall supply is sufficient; Production enterprises have a strong willingness to ship, generally reducing inventory by exchanging price for quantity. The actual transaction price is generally lower than the listed price, and the industry’s inventory pressure continues to accumulate.
On the demand side, downstream industries such as textiles, synthetic fibers, and modified plastics are facing a shortage of orders, and are currently in the traditional off-season of demand. Enterprises lack confidence in the future market, and their procurement only maintains essential replenishment, resisting high priced raw materials. There has been no centralized procurement behavior, and the market trading atmosphere remains sluggish.
3、 Future forecast
In the short term, negative factors still dominate, and the PA6 market is weak and difficult to change. Prices are likely to continue to decline: downstream terminal demand is unlikely to show significant improvement, and the pace of enterprise destocking is slow. Although the operating load of the PA6 industry may slightly decrease, inventory pressure will continue; The narrowing decline in the price of raw material caprolactam has limited support for PA6, making it difficult to reverse the downward trend. If there is no catalyst for raw material price increases or a significant rebound in terminal orders in the future, it is difficult to have market reversal momentum in the short term.

From June 5th to 8th (as of 10:00), the domestic methanol market in East China port prices rose from 3160 yuan/ton to around 3213 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.69% during the period, a month on month decrease of 2.50%, and a year-on-year increase of 38.92%. Domestic and mainland methanol prices continue to rise, with inland factories concentrating on pre-sales and exceeding orders for shipments, causing obstacles to truck transportation and loading in many places; In addition, the rebound in futures has boosted market sentiment, and under the logic of buying up, spot prices in various regions have generally risen.
As of the close on June 4th, methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fluctuated and fell. The MA2609 contract opened at 2938 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2938 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2868 yuan/ton. It closed at 2877 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 31 yuan/ton from the previous day’s closing settlement. The MA2609 contract position was 694900 lots, a decrease of 31300 lots from the previous trading day.
On the cost side, coal supply is sufficient, but due to the rapid rise in market prices in the early stage, downstream resistance to high prices has increased, and prices may fluctuate narrowly. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, from the downstream perspective, the market price of acetic acid continues to decline, the formaldehyde market is experiencing a narrow increase, and the dimethyl ether market is stable with some growth. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is biased towards favorable factors.
On the supply side, some devices have undergone maintenance, while others have been restored. The overall recovery amount exceeds the loss amount, resulting in an increase in production and capacity utilization. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.
In terms of external markets, as of the close on June 4th, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at $605-607 per ton. The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 151-153 cents per gallon; The European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 450-452 euros/ton.
In the future market forecast, both domestic methanol and downstream enterprises have maintenance losses, and the supply-demand game is relatively deadlocked. The inventory in ports and mainland China remains low, and the available spot goods for enterprises are tight. The circulation of methanol spot goods in the market is relatively limited, which still provides support for the methanol market. Overall, the methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly consolidate.

At the beginning of May, due to the increase in raw material costs and the tightening of supply caused by the maintenance of some acrylonitrile plants, enterprises showed a significant increase in prices, but the downstream willingness to chase higher prices was weak, and the market quickly entered a high-level stalemate. Despite the high price of raw material propylene in the middle of the month, production enterprises were deeply trapped in losses and formed a bottom support for prices. However, downstream demand was not well followed up, spot sales were slow, and local quotations were the first to loosen, leading to a gradual decline in the market. Entering the middle and late stages, the increase in market supply further dragged down the mentality, and prices continued to decline slightly.
Starting from mid month, the acrylonitrile maintenance units will gradually resume, and the current capacity utilization rate of the acrylonitrile industry has increased from less than 65% to nearly 75%.
In terms of acrylic fiber, the production load of the acrylic fiber industry has fluctuated greatly. This month, the production of acrylic fiber started at 32.15%, a decrease of 14.79% compared to the previous month. In the early stage, due to equipment shutdown, the industry load dropped to less than 30%. Recently, it has gradually begun to recover to a level above 40%, and is expected to further increase in June.
In terms of ABS, the efficiency of ABS is poor. In May 2026, the average operating rate of domestic ABS equipment was 57.41%, a decrease of 2.64% month on month and 13.16% year-on-year. The average operating rate of ABS equipment continued to decline in May as a whole.
In addition, although there is still a shortage of overseas supply, with two sets of facilities in South Korea’s Dongxi Petrochemical in Northeast Asia being shut down for maintenance, and Formosa Plastics and other facilities operating at low loads, the demand in the region has also weakened, and the atmosphere of external inquiries has also fallen. Although there is arbitrage in exports, the space has significantly narrowed.
In the later stage, there will still be a reduction in supply in June, but the specific maintenance time has not been announced yet, so it is still necessary to pay attention to the implementation of maintenance. Therefore, there will be little change in the supply of acrylonitrile in June, and the overall estimate is that acrylonitrile supply will further increase in June. The domestic production is expected to be between 360000 and 370000 tons, higher than the 360000 tons production in May.
Downstream, Qifeng, Ningbo Zhongxin, Hangzhou Bay Acrylic and other facilities will be restarted one after another; Most ABS devices still operate at low loads, but there are also a few devices with expectations of increased production; The production and terminal consumption of acrylamide will gradually enter the off-season. Therefore, it is expected that apart from a significant increase in the consumption of acrylic fiber, other industries will not see significant growth in the future. However, due to the decline in the proportion of acrylic fiber consumption in recent years, the support for the acrylonitrile market in the stage of demand recovery is also quite limited, and the overall demand is weak.
Overall, the supply-demand gap in the acrylonitrile industry is expected to widen again in June and July. Although cost pressures continue to limit market declines, the downward trend in prices is difficult to reverse. However, due to the current situation where some acrylonitrile production enterprises are already in a loss making state, especially the northern factories, due to relatively low prices and the need to source some raw materials externally, the future bearish expectations based on news may still lead to unplanned fluctuations in the supply side. The existence of supply variables will continue to limit market operating space, and it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to slowly decline in the future, and it is still necessary to continue to pay attention to the linkage changes between costs and supply.

The domestic PP market recovered after a decline in the first half of May, and rose in the second half. The price fluctuations of various brand products are relatively narrow. As of May 31st, the benchmark price for PP drawing offered by Shengyi Society was 9723.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.81% compared to the beginning of the month.
price trend
In terms of raw materials:
In May, high-level signals from both the United States and Iran in the Middle East were released intensively, and overall they were relatively positive. In the long run, the shortage of crude oil supply will gradually narrow, but it will take time for shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to fully recover. There is a divergence in market mentality, with a tangled game between marginal premiums and fundamentals within the range. In the latter half of the year, oil prices rapidly fell, and the cost value of PP’s remote end weakened. The demand for propylene in the market is stable, but some enterprises have restarted their facilities within the month. The expected increase in supply suppressed some of the gains and led to a high-level pullback market. Overall, the PP raw material market is fluctuating, with weakened support for PP costs at the end of the month.
Supply side:
During May, there were many production capacity shutdowns and returns of domestic PP enterprises, and the overall operating rate was in a historically low range. As of the deadline for publication, the overall load of the domestic industry is less than 50%, and the weekly output has fallen below 670000 tons. The current inventory position is below 700000 tons, and the overall supply performance is tight. Overall, the supply side has strong support for spot prices.
In terms of demand:
Affected by the rising market trend at the end of the first quarter, PP prices remained relatively high during May, and downstream markets in the industry continued to resist high prices, resulting in a cautious overall trading atmosphere. The current buyer camp is picking up goods on demand, with average warehouse building operations, and often seeing scattered small orders that can be picked up as needed. Meanwhile, due to the high cost pressure, the improvement in operating rates of small and micro end enterprises is limited, while large and medium-sized enterprises continue to stabilize and acquire goods. The demand side is generally in a wait-and-see situation, with average support for PP.
Future forecast
In May, the domestic PP market prices fluctuated in the first half of the month and rose in the second half. Fundamentally speaking, maintenance in May maintained a concentrated trend, industry load levels bottomed out, port imports remained low, and spot resources in the market turned tight. However, the cost side has fluctuated and weakened, coupled with weak demand and expectations of a return to production capacity in June. Business Society PP analysts believe that the current PP market is weak in both supply and demand, and the upward momentum in the future is hindered. The magnitude of this increase may be hindered.