1、 Price trend
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash fell in January. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 1250 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was around 1208 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 42 yuan/ton during the month, a decrease of 3.36%.
2、 Market analysis
According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the soda ash market fluctuated and declined in January. In terms of supply, the early maintenance equipment has been restored, the operating rate of soda ash has increased, the market supply is abundant, the mentality of operators is bearish, and the focus of soda ash prices has shifted downwards; In terms of demand, the glass industry’s production lines are undergoing cold repairs, and the purchasing sentiment is relatively weak. The actual transaction demand is mainly driven by essential needs, and there is insufficient support for the demand for soda ash. The market supply and demand are weak, and soda ash prices have declined this month.
As of January 30, 2026, the mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is around 1120-1560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20-40 yuan/ton compared to the previous month; The mainstream price of light soda ash in Central China is around 1100-1180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous period; The mainstream price of light soda ash in North China is around 1180-1250 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 30-70 yuan/ton.
On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, glass prices have been running strongly this month, with the average glass market price increasing from 12.75 yuan/square meter to 13.10 yuan/square meter, an overall increase of 2.75%. During the month, some glass production lines underwent cold repairs, resulting in a narrow decrease in industry operating rates. Downstream buyers entered the market on demand, and overall shipments were good. The pressure on enterprise inventory eased, and the glass industry experienced significant destocking, leading to an increase in glass prices.
Market forecast: On the supply side, the operating rate of soda ash is relatively high, and market supply pressure still exists. The downstream mentality is wait-and-see, and there is limited support for soda ash due to the urgent need to purchase after entering the market. The short-term soda ash market will continue to be weak. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, there may be a demand for replenishment in the downstream. It is expected that the soda ash market will experience narrow fluctuations in the future, depending on the follow-up situation of the downstream.

As of January 30th, the price of 0 # zinc was 25776 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.43% compared to the zinc price of 24682 yuan/ton on January 26th.
Macroscopic perspective
The market’s expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates is constantly increasing, and the US dollar continues to weaken as a result, providing strong support for non-ferrous metal prices. However, the current market sentiment is fluctuating greatly, and the uncertainty of capital flow is also increasing.
Raw material end
The newly added production capacity of global zinc mines will be released in 2026, but some mainstream mines are experiencing production cuts (such as Antamina, Red Dog, etc.), resulting in an overall slowdown in growth rate. Domestically, there is uncertainty in the progress of the production of Huoshaoyun Zinc Mine. If the production is smooth, it will increase the supply of zinc ingots, but the actual output needs to pay attention to the operational efficiency of the mine. The decline in processing fees has slowed down, the loss on zinc ore imports has narrowed, and the supply of domestic and imported minerals is relatively stable. However, the overall supply pressure of domestic minerals has eased due to seasonal production cuts.
Supply and demand side
Traders and smelters are actively shipping and providing quotes, and the overall spot premium is currently maintained at a low level. However, downstream enterprises have started to take holidays one after another, resulting in weak demand for zinc ingots. In addition, the strong trend of market prices has raised concerns among market participants due to high prices, resulting in less purchasing and inquiry behavior. The overall trading atmosphere in the spot market is somewhat quiet.
Traditional demand: The demand in industries such as infrastructure and real estate continues to show a weak trend, with a decrease in the number of terminal orders, which has suppressed the consumption of zinc ingots. At the same time, the export of galvanized sheet is facing numerous challenges from trade barriers, and the overall performance of the demand side is relatively weak.
Emerging demand: The installed capacity of photovoltaics has shown a restorative growth compared to the previous period, and the demand for zinc in fields such as new energy vehicles has shown some resilience. However, the growth rate has slowed down, making it difficult to fully and completely offset the impact of the decline in traditional demand.
comprehensive analysis
In the short term, zinc prices may remain volatile at a high level due to improved supply margins and macroeconomic sentiment support, but the pattern of weak supply and demand growth in the medium to long term remains unchanged, and the space above prices is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the progress of the production of Huoshaoyun Zinc Mine, the increase in production of overseas refineries, and changes in macro policies.

In the second half of January 2026, the overall performance of Shandong propylene glycol market was weak, with a V-shaped trend of first deep decline and then weak rebound. The core of the market downturn is dominated by three factors: weakened raw material costs, sustained weak demand, and supply pressure. After losing key support, prices accelerated their bottoming out and hit a historic low; The continuous decline in prices has driven some companies to increase their shipments slightly, coupled with the marginal stabilization transmission on the cost side. After the market reduced inventory, there was a tentative small increase, but the overall weak atmosphere has not been reversed due to the lack of demand.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 29th, the average production price of propylene glycol in Shandong Province was 5933 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.39% during the period.
Analysis of Core Driving Factors
Supply side: Loose supply becomes normal, pressure persists
Recently, the operating rate of the propylene glycol plant in Shandong has fluctuated narrowly, with an average operating rate of around 73%. The overall supply is sufficient, and the market circulation of goods is abundant. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, some factories plan to arrange maintenance or reduce production in advance, resulting in a slight decrease in supply. However, this will only alleviate short-term pressure and cannot reverse the overall oversupply situation. It is necessary to continue to monitor the actual operation of the top enterprises’ equipment.
Demand side: Lack of essential needs and insufficient downstream support
The downstream demand for propylene glycol is concentrated in the fields of unsaturated polyester resin, coatings, and polyether. Currently, it is in the traditional seasonal off-season, and the operating rate of the unsaturated polyester resin industry is less than 40%. Enterprises mainly focus on digesting inventory, and their willingness to purchase in bulk is low; There has been no significant rebound in downstream demand for coatings, polyethers, and other products, and only sporadic restocking has been maintained for essential needs. Although there has been a slight increase in the export market, Southeast Asian buyers have a strong willingness to lower prices and tend to lock in low-priced sources, making it difficult to drive overall domestic prices up. The demand side has no driving effect on the market.
Cost side: Weakening of core raw materials, complete collapse of cost support
Epoxy propane is the core raw material of propylene glycol, accounting for up to 70% -85% of the cost, and its price fluctuations directly determine the bottom line of propylene glycol cost. In the first half of January, epoxy propane briefly rose and then quickly fell back. On January 29th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society fell to 8200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.02% during the cycle, and the cost support strength significantly weakened; Moreover, many leading companies in the propylene glycol industry are equipped with epoxy propane units, with a self-sufficiency rate of over 80% in raw materials. The lack of cost advantages in outsourcing further exacerbates the downward pressure on prices.
Market outlook in the later stage
As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, companies are gradually suspending work and taking a break. The stocking cycle has basically come to an end, with only sporadic replenishment of inventory at the terminal, without any incremental demand support. Many operators are mainly reducing inventory and collecting payments, and the market is highly cautious. The expected low-level fluctuation of propylene glycol before the holiday is the main tone, and attention should be paid to the supply situation of equipment in the market.

After the high platform volatility of silver prices at the end of December 2025, prices surged violently in January. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the silver market price on January 28, 2026 was 29184.67 yuan/kg, an increase of 57.93% from the peak spot price of 18480 yuan/kg at the beginning of this month (1.3).
The surge in silver today is driven by a triple resonance of financial attributes, supply-demand gap, and funding and technical aspects. The core is the strengthening of interest rate cut expectations, the outbreak of industrial demand, and the amplification of low inventory elasticity. as follows:
1、 Financial attributes: macro and hedging resonance
Expectations of interest rate cuts and weakening of the US dollar: US inflation and employment data have cooled down, and the market is betting that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in June will rise to 70%. The decline in real interest rates will lower the cost of holding precious metals; The US dollar index fell below 96 (a new low in nearly four years), and the attractiveness of silver denominated in US dollars increased, forming a double click of “interest rate cuts+US dollar depreciation”.
Gold linkage and gold to silver ratio repair: London gold has now broken through $5290/ounce, and the gold to silver ratio has dropped to 45.5 (the lowest level in nearly 13 years). Silver has sufficient momentum for replenishment, and funds have flooded into silver through the spillover effect of the gold bull market.
Geopolitics and risk aversion are heating up: The situation in the Middle East and the Red Sea crisis continue, and the risk of a US government shutdown is increasing. Investors are increasing their allocation of precious metals as a safe haven, driving up demand for allocation.
2、 Supply and demand fundamentals: structural gap continues to widen
1. Rigid constraints on the supply side
Starting from January 1st, China will implement a “single review” control on silver exports, reducing global supply by 4500-5000 tons (accounting for 60% -70% of global trade volume).
72% of silver comes from copper zinc associated mines, with an independent expansion cycle of 5-10 years. Mineral silver is expected to decrease by 0.6% year-on-year in 2026, marking the fifth consecutive year of decline.
Extremely low inventory: LBMA deliverable inventory is only 233 tons, COMEX inventory has decreased by 70% year-on-year, and global explicit inventory only covers 1.2 months of consumption, with tight spot supply supporting premium.
2. Explosive growth on the demand side
Photovoltaic: The global installed capacity is expected to reach 600GW by 2026, and the penetration of N-type batteries will increase silver consumption to 210 million ounces, accounting for 34% -55% of industrial demand. Domestic replenishment orders are scheduled until mid February.
AI and New Energy: Silver used for packaging AI server chips increased by 35% year-on-year, silver used for power batteries in new energy vehicles increased by 28% annually, and “silver for copper” added 300000 to 500000 tons of replacement demand.
The supply-demand gap is widening: The global gap is expected to reach 203 million ounces (approximately 6316 tons) by 2026, marking the sixth consecutive year of shortage.
3、 Financial and technical aspects: emotional and financial resonance
Accelerated capital inflow: Silver ETF increased its holdings by 210 tons in January, with multiple positions in the futures market reaching a historic high, and speculative funds taking advantage of the situation to chase higher prices.
Technical strengthening trend: Long positions on the daily chart, Bollinger Bands opening upwards, prices moving along the upper track without significant deviation, triggering trend tracking funds to enter the market.
Futures and spot structure support: spot premiums continue to rise, with futures leading the gains and spot prices rebounding. Low inventory amplifies price elasticity, making short-term gains difficult to fall.

Recently (1.1-1.27), the domestic EVA market has seen a slight increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 27th, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 10150 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.92% from 9766 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Downstream factories replenish raw materials before the holiday, and demand for EVA has certain support; Domestic EVA equipment is operating at a high level and the supply is loose; The price of raw material vinyl acetate has slightly increased, and the cost support of EVA continues.
Recently (1.1-1.27), EVA production has reached a high of around 90%, indicating that the supply pressure in the EVA market still exists. During the cycle, the price of raw material ethylene slightly decreased and the price of vinyl acetate slightly increased, indicating that the cost of EVA still has support. As of January 27th, the domestic price of ethylene in Sinopec East China was 5750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.81% from 6150 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of January 27th, the market price of vinyl acetate in East China was 5925 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.45% from 5875 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
Recently (1.1-1.27), the downstream photovoltaic and foam industries have seen a surge in demand for restocking before the Spring Festival. EVA has been selling smoothly in the early stages, and as the end of the month approaches, downstream restocking is gradually coming to an end. Market inquiries are mainly for essential needs, and EVA demand has returned to a weak position. At the end of the month, the EVA market saw a narrow consolidation.
Future forecast: Overall, EVA cost support will continue, but as the Spring Festival approaches and downstream photovoltaic and foam industry demand weakens, coupled with high EVA plant production, the overall EVA fundamentals are stable but slightly weak. It is expected that the weak EVA spot market before the holiday will be the main reason for consolidation.