1、 Price trend

According to this week’s news agency, benzene prices fell. On December 13, the price of pure benzene was 4280-4650 yuan / ton (average price was 4556 yuan / ton); on Sunday (December 20), the price of pure benzene was 4170-4600 yuan / ton (average price was 4486 yuan / ton), down 70 yuan / ton or 1.54% compared with last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

Due to inventory pressure and the weakness of styrene, the price of pure benzene fell this week. However, the overall positive news of benzene and styrene in the lower end of the week weakened. This week, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene remained stable at 4600 yuan / ton, which was higher than the local refining price. On Monday, the total inventory of pure benzene in East China port decreased by about 11000 tons compared with last week.

In terms of external market, the shortage of pure benzene in Europe and the United States has driven the price of pure benzene in Asia to continue to rise, with a wide gap between domestic and foreign prices, which has a good support for the domestic market. On Friday (December 18), South Korea imported 650.67 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, up 19.34 US dollars / ton, or 3.06% compared with December 11; and that of East China was 633.5 US dollars / ton, up 5.5 US dollars / ton, or 0.88% higher than December 11.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil this week showed an overall upward trend. The US economic stimulus plan negotiations are expected to reach an agreement, and the crude oil market is boosted. Compared with December 11, Brent was up $1.94/barrel, or 3.88%; WTI was up $2.49/barrel, or 5.33%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 22.16%, and WTI decreased by 18.97%.

Downstream: styrene: domestic mainstream styrene prices fell first and then rose this week, but still fell 8.93% compared with last Friday. The downstream demand of styrene is weak, and the mainstream downstream is mainly supported by rigid demand, with insufficient buying gas. On Friday (December 18), the price of sample enterprises was 6916.67 yuan / ton, which was 633.33 yuan / ton, or 8.39% lower than last Friday, and the price was 6.95% lower than that of the same period last year.

Aniline: aniline Market is relatively quiet this week, digest the increase of last week. At present, the supply and demand of aniline is stable, Huatai and Jinling are running with reduced load. In the later stage, the maintenance plan and operation load of the unit are concerned. On December 20, the price of aniline in Shandong was about 7700 yuan / ton, while that in Nanjing was 7900-8000 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, China’s economic recovery is good, and the news of vaccine and US economic stimulus plan is favorable, supporting the market. It is expected that the oil price will be stronger next week. In the later stage, we will continue to pay attention to the vaccine and the new progress of the US economic stimulus plan, as well as the impact of the gradual increase of OPEC + production.

Downstream: pay attention to the change of demand side for plant restart, and pay attention to the arrival of imported ships in the later stage. In December, new production capacity is expected to enter the downstream, and the demand for pure benzene may increase. The listed price of Sinopec is higher than that of local refining, and the market is waiting for its price guidance. Next week, near the end of the month, focus on the next month’s contract price negotiations. It is expected that benzene will recover slightly next week.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of activated carbon was 9900 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week and 10000 yuan / ton at the end of this week, with the price rising by 1.01%.

The price of activated carbon in China has increased slightly. At present, the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-12500 yuan / ton; the active carbon market is active, and the delivery is normal, and the transaction price is mainly through negotiation (the specifications and properties of activated carbon are complex, and the price can not be generalized. Please consult the manufacturer for details).

Activated carbon is rich in raw materials, including coal, sawdust, fruit shell, straw, etc. through a series of processes, activated carbon suitable for water treatment is prepared. At the same time, activated carbon manufacturers are constantly improving the performance of activated carbon, increasing its working capacity, which can effectively adsorb and purify wastewater.

Forecast: the downstream delivery of activated carbon is speeding up, and the market atmosphere is active. It is expected that the short-term active carbon market will be dominated by stable and weak trend.

The same as last week’s market, prices continue to stabilize this week. At present, the mainstream prices in East China are 7500 yuan / ton, 7650 yuan / ton in North China, 7500 yuan / ton in South China, 7700 yuan / ton in Central China, and 7450-7550 yuan / ton in Northeast China.

External data showed that the CFR Northeast Asian price of ethylene reached $990.00/ton yesterday (17th). With the high price of raw materials, the cost load of ethylene oxide has increased greatly, and the enterprises are operating under pressure. Some enterprises have reduced their production load, and the supply pattern is hard to change. The price of ethylene glycol has a strong trend due to the influence of reducing the storage. It is learned from market participants that the current monomer price has reached about 8700-8900, which is in the off-season of the industry. In addition, due to the severe haze in recent years, many provinces and cities in China have promoted the rectification of environmental protection problems, and logistics transportation is greatly restricted. The bearish prospect of monomer demand may continue to depress ethylene oxide and exert downward pressure.

High price of raw materials but low demand, resulting in epoxy resin is difficult to improve at present, the market focus shifted downward.

Price trend of spot precious metals

According to the data of business agency, the average price of silver on December 17 was 5215.67 yuan / kg, an increase of 10.62% compared with the average price of 4715 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (December 1); the spot price of silver was 4376.33 yuan / kg at the beginning of the year (01.01), an increase of 19.18%; the spot price of silver was 2942.67 yuan / kg, an increase of 77.24% over the peak value of 8.11 The spot price of silver was 6708.33 yuan / kg, down 22.25%.

On December 17, the spot price of gold was 387.04 yuan / g, an increase of 3.84% compared with the average price of 372.71 yuan / G on the spot market at the beginning of the month (12.1); the spot price of gold was 342.54 yuan / g, up 12.99%; compared with the valley value (3.19), the spot price of gold was 331.75 yuan / g, up 16.67%; compared with the peak value (8.7) of the year, the spot price of silver decreased by 13.61%.

News

1. The Fed’s comments are in line with market expectations

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept the target range of the federal funds rate at 0-0.25%, in line with market expectations.

2. The dollar is relatively weak

The dollar index fell, and the negative correlation was highlighted.

3. Bitcoin drives convergence effect

Within the day, bitcoin soared, once setting a record high above $22000, an astonishing increase.

Future forecast

After the price of precious metals hit the bottom and rebounded in December, the current price has been close to the peak value in November after two waves of continuous rise in the beginning and middle of the month. This will basically pull back the price drop caused by the retreat of risk aversion sentiment brought by the vaccine news in November and the withdrawal of funds.

At present, the CME gold price stands at 1880-1890 US dollars / oz, and the CME silver price reaches 26 US dollars / oz, both in the early shock range, relative resistance level, and the long short game in the future market is intensified.

The news coverage focused on the development of epidemic situation in cold winter vs vaccine progress.

Trade name: chlorinated paraffin

Latest price (December 16): 5166.67 yuan / ton

Analysis points: on December 16, the overall trend of domestic chlorinated paraffin market was stable, the upstream liquid wax price was relatively stable, and the liquid chlorine market declined slightly. Downstream on-demand procurement is the main, traders take goods cautiously, wait-and-see sentiment is obvious, the market price is relatively stable. Chlorinated paraffin analysts of the business club believe that the overall market trading atmosphere of chlorinated paraffin is general, the overall production of chlorinated paraffin remains low, and the market continues the situation of weak supply and demand. It is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will be stable in the short term.