Aluminum prices fluctuated strongly in September. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 16, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20960 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.57% from the market average price of 20636.67 yuan/ton on September 1.
Recent favorable factors
1. Macroeconomic policies and expected benefits:
The US PPI fell for the first time in four months in August, and although there were changes in the year-on-year and month on month CPI in August, the overall expectation of a Fed interest rate cut was still strengthened to some extent. As of September 12th, data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s FedWatch showed a 92.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with the strengthening of interest rate expectations providing support for aluminum prices. In addition, data from the National Bureau of Statistics in China shows that the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year-on-year and 0.37% month on month in August, and increased by 6.2% year-on-year from January to August. Industrial growth is conducive to supporting aluminum demand.
2. Downstream demand rebounds:
With the arrival of the peak consumption season of “Golden September”, the overall operating rate of leading domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises has increased by 0.4 percentage points month on month to 62.1%, and the “Golden September” effect continues to strengthen. Among them, the operating rate of the aluminum cable industry increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points to 65.2%, regional environmental inspections were lifted, and power grid orders supported the rise in operating rates of top enterprises; The operating rate of aluminum profiles has rebounded by 1 percentage point to 54%, the trend of building profiles transforming into industrial materials is accelerating, the processing fee for photovoltaic frames has bottomed out and stabilized, and new orders for automotive profiles have become highlights; The operating rate of leading aluminum sheet and strip enterprises remains stable at a high level of 68.6%, and the tank material stocking cycle is approaching its end, highlighting the resilience of demand in the automotive/3C field; The operating rate of the aluminum foil industry remains at a peak level of 71.9%, and the demand for packaging foil and battery foil remains stable.
Recent bearish factors
Changes in social inventory:
On September 15th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in mainstream consumer areas in China recorded 629000 tons, an increase of 11000 tons from September 11th.
Future forecast
Raw material side: The operating capacity of alumina is at a high level and continues to accumulate inventory, with limited cost support for aluminum prices;
Downstream demand side: As the peak season in China gradually approaches, the demand for aluminum ingots in stock has improved, and the operating rate of primary processing enterprises has increased month on month, providing some support for aluminum prices;
Market sentiment: Under the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts, the sentiment in the commodity market is relatively strong;
Overall, in the short term, aluminum prices will mainly experience strong fluctuations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market has slightly declined since September, with the average spot market price of PTA in East China at 4631 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.6% from the beginning of the month.
The weakening of cost support and the gradual realization of OPEC+production increase in the international crude oil market have led to a decline in crude oil prices. As of September 12th, the settlement price of the October WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $62.69 per barrel, and the settlement price of the November Brent crude oil futures contract was $66.99 per barrel. OPEC maintains the tone of increasing production in October, and the risk of oversupply has increased. And with the traditional fuel peak season coming to an end and demand entering a turning point, the supply and demand pattern is showing a situation of oversupply, coupled with the current difficult geopolitical situation to intensify, crude oil prices may continue to weaken.
Recently, maintenance facilities such as Hengli Huizhou and Xinfengming have been restarted in early September, partially improving the tight supply situation of PTA in China. The current industry operating rate is around 77%. PTA relies on operating to maintain inventory in the early stage, but it is difficult to continue in the later stage. There is also an expectation of new equipment being put into operation in October, so there is a continuous increase in domestic supply.
The traditional peak season downstream has arrived, but the performance of terminal orders is average, and the demand side is lukewarm, lacking substantial driving force. Among them, polyester filament manufacturers have a strong willingness to ship, continuing their promotional model and continuously lowering prices. The demand for downstream spinning orders in the polyester staple fiber market has rebounded compared to last month. Although the overall order volume was lower than expected, the improvement in news has boosted the mentality of industry players, resulting in a moderate increase in the purchase volume of polyester staple fibers. Therefore, its price performance is resistant to decline.
Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the PTA market is performing cautiously, with concerns about supply growth and weak demand during the traditional peak season, and a lack of significant fundamental support. As a result, PTA prices remain mainly volatile and weak.

This week, the price of acrylonitrile rose and then fell back. At the beginning of the week, due to reduced supply in the East China region and considering recent cost pressures and long-term pre holiday stocking expectations, suppliers continued to push up prices. However, the follow-up of spot transactions has been slow, and it is expected that the northern maintenance equipment will gradually recover next week. In addition, there is no significant increase in overall demand, and as the weekend approaches, the market will stop rising and fall back.
As of September 12th, the mainstream tank discharge price in East China ports has increased by 8400-8500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week; Short distance delivery to the Shandong market costs 8350-8450 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton compared to last week.
Supply side
The newly built 260000 ton acrylonitrile unit B line of Jilin Petrochemical’s transformation and upgrading project was successfully put into operation on August 13th, and the A line was also put into operation recently. As a result, the total domestic acrylonitrile production capacity base has been adjusted to 5.42 million tons per year. Therefore, this week’s production increased while the capacity utilization rate still decreased; The 520000 ton acrylonitrile unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical is currently operating at around 75% load. It is planned to undergo maintenance on one unit for about 10 days starting from September 15th, when the load will drop to 50%; Sinochem Quanzhou Acrylonitrile Plant Shutdown; Tianchen Qixiang’s 130000 ton acrylonitrile plant is scheduled to restart in mid September.
According to statistics, as of September 11th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories has dropped to 71.90%, which is -0.95% compared to the same period last week. The weekly output is about 81900 tons, an increase of 400 tons compared to the previous cycle. The total inventory is about 41000 tons, an increase of 0.18 million tons from last week.
Increased demand:
This week, the capacity utilization rates of major downstream industries of acrylonitrile have all shown an increase, among which the ABS capacity utilization rate is 70.0%, an increase of 1.0% compared to last week, and the Tianjin plant has shown a negative trend; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises was 61.59%, an increase of 0.93% compared to last week; Daqing Petrochemical restarts; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity was 55.58%, an increase of 0.61% compared to last week, indicating a slight increase in overall demand.
Cost support:
The cost of raw materials for acrylonitrile production has not changed much during the cycle, and upstream propylene prices are running at a high level. At the same time, acrylonitrile prices are fluctuating at a high level, and the production loss situation has improved this week. According to statistics, the average production cost of acrylonitrile this week was 9024 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of+0.20%. The average profit of acrylonitrile production during the same period was -474 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 211 yuan/ton.
In the later forecast, the acrylonitrile market is expected to be in a favorable atmosphere of high cost, low inventory, and reduced supply in the first half of September. However, the above positive support is limited and variable, coupled with insufficient follow-up of long-term demand, the improvement of market supply and demand relationship is still difficult to sustain. In the second half of the month, the northern maintenance facilities will gradually resume, and at the same time, the demand for stocking up before the National Day holiday will also be activated. The news is mixed, and the market may once again fall into a stalemate.

In 2025, domestic and foreign phenol and ketone enterprises will be in a long-term loss of profits. Devices in South Korea, Taiwan, China, Saudi Arabia and other countries and regions will be overhauled. In addition, domestic acetone prices will fall in the second quarter, which will inevitably attract the attention of exporters and boost the year-on-year growth of export volume, up 41.28%.
In 2025, the destinations for China’s acetone exports will be relatively dispersed, and there will be significant changes in the main destinations. In 2024, the majority of China’s acetone exports will be to Japan, while this year’s exports to Thailand will occupy the top position. According to the statistics of customs export data, from January to July 2025, China’s acetone exports to 48 countries and regions, accounting for 58.05% of the total exports to Thailand, Japan, Peru and Taiwan, China, accounting for half of the country. In addition, a total of 44 products were exported to other regions and countries, accounting for 41.95% of the total export volume.
Expected future export of acetone in 2025: Both South Korea and India have newly added phenol ketone units put into operation, thus increasing international export competition pressure. Some countries may have early inventory clearance operations in the fourth quarter, which will inevitably affect export prices. With the gradual increase in domestic acetone supply and the low price, seizing international market share has become a necessary path for acetone exports.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 10, 2025, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China is 5933 yuan/ton. Compared with September 1 (reference price of n-butanol is 6100 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 167 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.73%.
From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in early September, the overall market situation of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China, showed a weak downward trend. At the beginning of the month, the n-butanol market in Shandong experienced a weak and downward trend, followed by active market sales. The n-butanol market remained weak and stable, but the positive support was insufficient, and the focus of the n-butanol market fell again. As of September 10th, the reference price for n-butanol market in Shandong region is 5900-6000 yuan/ton.
Fundamental situation
Analysis of Factors Influencing Market Trends
On the supply side: Currently, the overall tight supply of n-butanol has eased, and n-butanol production factories are actively shipping to maintain low inventory levels. The market as a whole is generally supported by the supply side.
On the demand side: Currently, the overall downstream demand for n-butanol is cautious, with downstream users mainly purchasing at low prices. The overall trading inquiries are mainly at low-end prices, and the support provided by the demand side to the n-butanol market is weak.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the trading atmosphere in the Shandong n-butanol market is mild, and the overall low-end trading volume is still acceptable. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.