The price of o-xylene rose on February 20

According to the price trend chart of ortho-xylene of the business agency, the price of ortho-xylene was 8000 yuan/ton as of February 20, up 2.56% from 7800 yuan/ton on February 17. On February 20, the domestic ortho-xylene market rose.

Analysis points

The price of mixed xylene, the raw material, fell first and then rose, and the mixed xylene stabilized at a high level, and the cost of raw materials rose; The price of downstream phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose, the market of downstream phthalic anhydride rose, the demand for o-xylene warmed up, and the rising power of o-xylene price increased and the downward pressure weakened.

Future prospects

The raw materials were consolidated at a high level, the downstream market recovered, and the demand for high cost consolidation recovered slightly. It is expected that the market of ortho-xylene will stabilize strongly in the future.

According to the monitoring data of Business News Agency, the price of steam coal stopped falling and rebounded this week. The energy index stood at 1091 points on February 16, up 2 points from yesterday, down 30.11% from the highest point of 1561 points in the cycle (2021-10-21), and up 113.50% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

In terms of origin, the coal mine resumed production after the Spring Festival, and the market supply increased. The start of construction is relatively stable, some coal mines have accumulated inventories, and the coal mines can flexibly adjust their prices, but the enthusiasm of the downstream to take goods is general.

In terms of downstream ports, the market sales were average, the market quotation declined at the beginning of the week, and the downstream took goods as needed, and the transaction was relatively weak. However, with the increase of port inventory, some traders began to increase their prices tentatively, but the overall demand of end users for steam coal was limited, and the wait-and-see attitude was the main one.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on February 14, the national coal price fell in the first ten days of February. The specific price changes of each coal type are as follows: the price of anthracite (washing medium lump, volatile content ≤ 8%) is 1960.0 yuan/ton, down 115.0 yuan/ton or 5.5% from the previous period. The price of common blended coal (the blended coal of Shanxi fine coal and lump coal, with a calorific value of 4500 kcal) was 876.3 yuan/ton, down 51.7 yuan/ton or 5.6% from the previous period. The price of Shanxi Dachun (coal blend with good quality and calorific value of 5000 kcal) was 982.5 yuan/ton, down 75.5 yuan/ton or 7.1% from the previous period. The price of Shanxi Youxing (high-quality blended coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal) was 1145.0 yuan/ton, down 73.0 yuan/ton or 6.0% from the previous period. The price of coking coal (main coking coal, sulfur content<1%) was 2400.0 yuan/ton, down 55.0 yuan/ton or 2.2% from the previous period.

Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that the production of steam coal in the production area will resume after the holiday, and the market supply will increase. In terms of downstream ports, the purchase enthusiasm of power plants is general and the transaction is relatively limited. Although the price of steam coal has stopped falling and rebounded slightly, it is generally accepted by the downstream. It is comprehensively estimated that the price of steam coal will still be mainly consolidated in the later period, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, after a week of stalemate, the butadiene market continued to rise. From February 1 to 16, the domestic butadiene market price rose from 9282 yuan/ton to 9868 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 6.32% in the cycle, a year-on-year increase of 22.73%, and a year-on-year increase of 24.19%.

Sinopec, the main domestic manufacturer, has pushed up the guiding price, slightly increased the export volume and the news of device maintenance, which has significantly boosted the domestic butadiene market atmosphere. At the same time, the external market has slightly increased, the short-term butadiene market supply level has been strong, and the downstream rubber market has also slightly increased. The market atmosphere has been rising, but the demand side still needs to be further opened.

On the cost side, in the same period, the international crude oil price has a trend of rising in a narrow range, while naphtha has a trend of high volatility. On February 16, the benchmark price of Brent crude oil and naphtha of the business agency was $85.58/barrel and 7951.50 yuan/ton respectively, up 1.28% and 1.05% from the beginning of this month ($84.50/barrel). The cost of butadiene was slightly positive.

On the supply side, the listed price of butadiene of Sinopec’s sales companies was increased by 400 yuan/ton to implement 10000 yuan/ton. The 250000 t/a butadiene unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II and the 64000 t/a butadiene unit of Shenhua Ningxia Coal Co., Ltd. were temporarily shut down for maintenance, and the capacity utilization rate decreased slightly. The supply-side production enterprises intend to drive up the market, while the utilization rate of the unit capacity decreases, and the butadiene supply side is favorable.

In terms of external market: the closing price of butadiene in Asia was stable on February 15: the FOB price in South Korea was 1195-1205 US dollars/ton; China CFR 1175-1185 USD/ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe remained stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at 715-725 US dollars/ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 735-745 euros/ton.

Region/ Country/ Closing price/ Up and down

Asia/ FOB Korea/ 1195-1205 US dollars/ton/ 0 yuan/ton

Asia/ CFR China/ 1175-1185 US dollars/ton/ 0 USD/ton

Europe and America/ FOB Rotterdam/ USD 715-725/ton/ 0 USD/ton

Europe/ FD Northwest Europe/ 735-745 euros/ton/ 0 Euro/ton

It is predicted that the recent butadiene market will be boosted by exports and the high guiding price of Sinopec, and the traders’ quotations will mainly rise. The overall market atmosphere is strong. However, the growth of downstream synthetic rubber is limited, and the demand of terminal has no obvious signs of improvement for the time being. According to the game between supply and demand, the butadiene analysts of the business agency predict that the domestic butadiene market will be sorted out at a high level in the short term

Domestic cobalt price fell on February 14

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of February 14, the domestic cobalt price was 289100 yuan/ton, down 0.14% from the February 13 cobalt price of 289500 yuan/ton. On February 14, the domestic cobalt price continued to decline slightly.

Analysis points

The price of cobalt in LME market declined slightly, the price of MB cobalt stabilized, and the decline of international cobalt price slowed down; In January, the production and sales of new energy vehicles fell on a month-on-month basis. With the recovery of the domestic economy, the sales of new energy vehicles are expected to rebound in the future, and the demand for cobalt is expected to rebound; The cobalt price is close to the cost line, and the decline space of cobalt price is limited.

Aftermarket expectation

High expectations and low reality, the supply of cobalt price is sufficient and the demand is insufficient, and the cobalt price is expected to fall slightly in the future.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the Business Society, on the 13th, the average price of nickel spot market was 214150 yuan/ton, down 4.57% from the previous trading day and up 21.48% year on year.

The US dollar rose, the base metal closed down, and the nickel dropped 5.83% in the next week. The Philippines is still in the rainy season, the supply shortage at the mine end is high, and the price of nickel iron is high. From the perspective of the nickel iron – stainless steel industry chain, the output of stainless steel increased in February, and the demand has warmed up. However, the problem of nickel iron reflux in Indonesia has led to loose supply and demand of nickel iron, and the inventory of stainless steel has further increased. In the new energy sector, some new energy enterprises have increased their purchase of nickel sulfate, and the supply and demand of nickel sulfate have tightened, but the news of the production of electrodeposited nickel in Qingshan has flowed out, The excess pressure of nickel sulfate was relieved. In the short term, the nickel price still maintained a broad volatility trend.