DOTP prices fell sharply this week

According to the data monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 10, the average price of DOTP was 10050 yuan/ton, down 6.51% from the average price of 10750 yuan/ton on February 5 last weekend. The price of raw materials fell and the demand was weak, and the downward pressure on the price of DOTP increased.

The price of raw materials fell sharply this week

According to the data detection of the business agency; As of February 10, the price of isooctanol was 9733.33 yuan/ton, down 8.75% from the price of isooctanol of 10666.67 yuan/ton on February 5. Downstream demand was weak this week, the price of isooctanol fell sharply, the cost of DOTP fell, and the upward momentum of DOTP weakened, and the downward pressure increased.

According to the data of the Business Agency, as of February 10, the PTA price was 5618.18 yuan/ton, down 2.52% from the price of 5763.64 yuan/ton on February 5 last weekend; Compared with the price of 5617.73 yuan/ton on February 6, the price increased by 0.01%. The cost support is insufficient, the downstream wait-and-see sentiment is strong, the PTA demand is weak, the PTA price is stable this week, the DOTP cost support is insufficient, and the downward pressure of DOTP in the future is still there.

Aftermarket expectation

According to DOTP data analysts of the Business Agency, the raw material of plasticizer DOTP, isooctanol, fell sharply this week, the price of PTA stabilized, the price of plasticizer DOTP raw material fell, the demand for DOTP was weak, and the cost fell. It is expected that DOTP will fall in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the average ex-factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1233 yuan/ton on February 3 and 1230 yuan/ton on February 9. The price of ammonium sulfate fell 0.27% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of ammonium sulfate fell first and then rose this week. Due to the increase in downstream demand and the low inventory in the site, the bidding price of coking grade ammonium sulfate increased this week. The operating rate of domestic enterprises continued to increase, the supply of domestic enterprises increased, and the price of domestic ammonium sulfate decreased. The export order of ammonium sulfate was limited this week, and the international market performance was weak. As of February 9, the mainstream ex-factory price of coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong is about 1250 yuan/ton, and the mainstream ex-factory price of ammonium sulfate in Hebei is about 1350 yuan/ton. Domestic ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex-factory price in Shandong is 1120-1220 yuan/ton.

The market of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises fluctuated slightly this week. The market of raw materials is stable for the time being, and there is no change in the cost side. At present, the compound fertilizer market is progressing steadily, and the transactions on the market are weak, and dealers are mainly cautious and wait-and-see.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Analysts of ammonium sulfate from the Business Agency believe that the market price of ammonium sulfate has been fluctuating recently. The domestic market demand is stable, while the foreign market is weak. There is no major change in the supply side, and the downstream purchases as required. It is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will continue to fluctuate and operate in the short term.

According to the bulk list data of the Business News Agency, as of February 8, the average price of domestic industrial 85% formic acid enterprises was 3300.00 yuan/ton, up 8.79% from February 1.

Since February, the market price of 85% industrial grade formic acid in China has risen steadily. Recently, the price of raw material sulfuric acid has been stable, and the price of raw material methanol has been shaken and sorted out. The cost has been supported to some extent. In the early stage, the mainstream enterprises have temporarily reduced their volume, controlled their inventory, and the export market is stable. The domestic market deals are just needed, and the price of formic acid has risen.

Upstream products: upstream sulfuric acid, the domestic market price of sulfuric acid was temporarily stable on February 8, and the reference price of sulfuric acid was 231.67 on February 7, which was the same as that on February 1; For upstream methanol, the reference price of methanol was 2712.86 on February 7, down 2.42% from February 1 (2780.00).

According to the formic acid analyst of the Business Society, the current cost support is still good, and the downstream demand is expected to recover, the domestic industrial 85% formic acid market may be strong in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the PP market was shaken and sorted in early February, and the fiber products were also shaken to varying degrees in Zaangdihu County of each wire drawing brand. As of February 6, the mainstream price of T30S (wire drawing) offered by domestic producers and traders was about 7991.67 yuan/ton, up and down by+0.31% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in the upstream, the propylene market stabilized after falling, and the transaction atmosphere was good before, and the price was tentatively pushed up. At present, the crude oil price fluctuates and the cost support weakens, affecting the decline of propylene. After the holiday, the market demand followed up slowly, and the prices of individual enterprises fell back, and the current prices recovered smoothly.

Propylene prices stopped falling and stabilized, providing general support for PP cost side. In terms of industry load, the current high starting point of PP enterprises has declined in a narrow range, and the overall industry load is stable. The supply of goods in the site is relatively sufficient. Due to the continuous operation of the supplier’s going to the warehouse, the manufacturer’s inventory position is low and has declined, and the supply pressure is not strong. In terms of demand, at present, the upstream part of the downstream PP enterprises in China is slow to resume work, the main downstream plastic knitting enterprises have a general operating rate, and the terminal enterprises’ stock situation is not as expected, so they purchase as needed after the holiday.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the Business Agency, as of February 6, the spot price of domestic fiber PP was generally flat. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders Z30S (fiber) is about 8016.67 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, it has increased by – 1.43% and decreased by – 4.56% year-on-year. At present, the downstream non-woven fabric enterprises, the main force of PP fiber, have a general load, and the demand of terminal enterprises tends to be stable. The digestion speed of non-woven end products is general, and the enterprise’s replenishment operation of fiber PP is not high due to the resumption of work. The spot price is lower than that of wire drawing material, and it is expected that it will still maintain the operation of shock consolidation in the short term.

In terms of melt-blown materials, the market of melt-blown PP fell in a narrow range recently. As of February 6, the average quotation of domestic melt-blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Business Society was about 9900 yuan/ton, up and down by – 1% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, up by+4.39% year-on-year. In terms of international health events, at the end of last year, the disposal of health events in China was optimized, resulting in a large demand for masks. However, at present, the social consumption of medical melt-blown cloth materials has been more beneficial, and the recent demand has declined and stabilized. Domestic and overseas demand has not been significantly boosted. At present, the supply of melt-blown materials in the market is abundant for a long time, and the saturation of domestic melt-blown materials and cloth enterprises is high. Therefore, the price of melt-blown materials may stabilize at the present time when the demand momentum slows down.

Aftermarket forecast

PP analysts of the Business Agency believe that the recent polypropylene market has been shaken and sorted out. The market of raw material propylene stabilized after falling, and the cost support was general. The demand of terminal enterprises tends to just need to maintain production, and after the resumption of work, the demand has not been fully expanded. However, under the influence of the favorable policy and macroeconomic environment, it is expected that the PP market will improve after the resumption of downstream work.

On February 2, domestic cobalt price stopped falling and rising

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of February 2, the domestic cobalt price was 297000 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the cobalt price of 296200 yuan/ton on February 1. On February 2, the domestic cobalt price stopped falling and rose.

Analysis points

The cobalt price in LME market has stabilized, the decline of MB cobalt price has slowed down, and the decline of international cobalt price has slowed down; The domestic economy recovered, the production and sales of new energy vehicles rose or exceeded expectations, the sales of mobile phones were expected to warm up, and the demand of cobalt market was expected to warm up; The cobalt price is close to the cost line, and the decline space of cobalt price is limited. The import of cobalt raw materials has increased significantly, the supply of cobalt market is sufficient, and the support of cobalt price rise is insufficient.

Aftermarket expectation

The decline of the international cobalt price slows down, the demand is expected to warm up, the decline space of the cobalt price is limited, the supply of the cobalt price is sufficient, and the support for the rise of the cobalt price is insufficient. It is expected that the volatility of the cobalt price will stabilize in the future.