Product Name: cryolite

Latest price (September 5): 7675.00 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the cryolite market in Henan is running smoothly, and the average production price of cryolite is the same as that of the previous working day. On the upstream side, raw materials are tight, fuel costs such as coal and natural gas are high, production pressure of enterprises is high, downstream market entry is followed up as required, enterprise shipments are OK, and supply and demand on the site are relatively balanced, supporting the high price of cryolite.

Future forecast: the short-term cryolite market will remain stable at a high level, and the future market will pay attention to the market supply.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the trading society, on the 2nd, the average price of nickel in the spot market was 166683.33 yuan / ton, down 3.16% from the previous trading day and up 12.08% year-on-year.

Nickel price has a weak trend in recent shocks. The expectation of raising interest rates boosted the US dollar, and LUNI nickel closed down more than 4% overnight. The slowdown of the global economic rhythm led to a sharp drop in metal demand. In August, the output of steel mills with power rationing and maintenance decreased. The weak supply and demand dragged nickel prices down. Domestic nickel production is at the highest level in the past years, and there are many inventory resources. From the perspective of downstream stainless steel, the pessimism in the downstream has recovered, seasonal consumption may improve, and the demand for replenishment just needs to pick up. On August 30, Inner Mongolia issued the notice on canceling the preferential power price policy, which will be implemented from September 1. After the implementation, the electricity price in East Mongolia may increase by 0.02 yuan to about 0.43-0.45 yuan / kWh. In 2022, the output of nickel pig iron and nickel metal of Inner Mongolia nickel iron plant will account for about 4% of the country, with limited impact. With loose supply and weak demand, the nickel price still maintains a wide fluctuation trend in the short term.

In August, the styrene butadiene rubber market fell as a whole. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of August 31, the price of butadiene benzene 1502 was 11775 yuan / ton, down 3.94% from 12258 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. In August, the price of raw material butadiene / styrene fell first and then rose. The overall decline, especially the decline of raw material price at the beginning of the month, weakened the cost support of SBR significantly; The commencement of downstream tires remained low in August, and the demand for styrene butadiene rubber was weak. However, starting from the middle and late August, on the one hand, the raw material price rebounded after hitting the bottom, and on the other hand, the supply and demand of styrene butadiene rubber was in a weak balance. Under this background, the market of styrene butadiene rubber in the middle and late August showed a stable and narrow fluctuation trend.

The prices of butadiene and styrene fell first and then rose. The overall price fell, and the cost was weakly supported by styrene butadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of August 31, the price of butadiene was 8331 yuan / ton, down 10.96% from 9356 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and the lowest point in the month was 7792 yuan / ton. As of July 31, the price of styrene was 9075 yuan / ton, down 5.67% from 9620 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and the lowest point in the month was 8390 yuan / ton.

In August, the natural rubber market fluctuated downward, and the impact on styrene butadiene rubber was empty. As of August 31, the price was 11990 yuan / ton, down 2.04% from 12240 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. In August, during the peak season of domestic and foreign rubber production, the pressure on the supply side of natural rubber increased, the price of Thai glue continued to drop, and the output of China’s domestic area was normal. Although the impact of Hainan public health incident and heavy rain, the rubber production continued to increase.

In August, the start-up of domestic tire enterprises maintained a low and narrow range. The start-up of all steel tires was around 65%, and the start-up of semi steel tires was 50-60%. In addition, the rubber products industry was slow to ship due to the off-season, and the overall start-up was not significantly improved. The demand for SBR was weakly supported.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that the supply and demand side is stable but weak, but the price of raw materials has rebounded from the bottom. If the cost side continues to increase in the later period, the price of SBR will rise accordingly.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the trade agency’s bulk list, on August 1, the average market price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 12500 yuan / ton, and on August 31, the average market price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 11716 yuan / ton. This month, the domestic caprolactam price fell by 6.27%.

2、 Market analysis

Domestic caprolactam prices fell this month. In the first half of August, the market price of caprolactam fell continuously. The price of raw material pure benzene is lowered, and the cost of caprolactam is weak. The market demand is poor, and a small amount of downstream purchase is required. The on-site supply is fair, the trading volume is small, and the market is still depressed. Most of the caprolactam enterprises suffered losses and the operating rate decreased. In the second half of August, the market price of caprolactam increased slightly. The downstream PA6 market improved and the purchase of raw materials increased. The supply and demand of caprolactam market is balanced, and the manufacturer sells it at a high price. As of August 31, the price of Sinopec caprolactam liquid was 12400 yuan / ton, and the acceptance was self drawn. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical is 12400 yuan / ton, and the 450000 tons / year unit is normally started, and the acceptance is self withdrawn.

This month, the raw material pure benzene market was covered with bad news, and the price continued to fall. In terms of cost, crude oil fluctuated widely this month, and the trend of cost is unstable, which is difficult to support the price of pure benzene. In terms of supply, since the middle of this month, many pure benzene plants have been restarted one after another, and the domestic supply has increased significantly. After the superposition, it is expected that a large amount of pure benzene production capacity will be put into production, and the market mentality will be suppressed. In terms of ports, the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports was low at the beginning of this month, and there was still speculation in the domestic market and the port inventory was tight. However, with the closing of the Asian American arbitrage window, the Asian pure benzene flows to China, the import cargo of pure benzene increases, the port inventory accumulates, and the mentality of supporting prices weakens. Demand side: due to the high price of pure benzene and the average profit level of the downstream, the production of most commodities in the downstream is at a loss, the economic shutdown and load reduction devices are increased, and the demand for pure benzene is weakened. This month, Sinopec’s pure benzene price was lowered six times. As of August 30, the price of Sinopec pure benzene was 7600 yuan / ton.

In this month, the domestic market of downstream PA6 gradually declined, and the spot prices of various brands decreased. As of August 30, the mainstream offer price of China viscosity 2.75-2.85 by the sample enterprises was about 13766.67 yuan / ton, up or down by – 8.02% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month. Downstream enterprises just need to take goods to maintain production, and the center of gravity of PA6 offer falls in a three-step manner. It is expected that the next traditional demand season will pull demand, and PA6 market may rise.

3、 Future forecast

According to the caprolactam analyst of business society, the supply and demand of caprolactam in the market are balanced at present, and the enterprise sells at a high price. Downstream caprolactam just needs to be purchased, and the terminal demand is still to be released. The raw material market fluctuates, and the industry is still watching carefully. It is expected that the caprolactam market price will be slightly adjusted and operated in the short term.

According to the data of the trade agency’s bulk list, on the 30th, the domestic glycine market was consolidated and the average price of industrial grade glycine fell to 13166 yuan / ton, a decrease of 28.83% over the beginning of the month. It is understood that there are few quotations in the glycine market. The factory is under construction, and the quantity and price of glycine are falling. The mainstream price of downstream glyphosate raw materials is around 62000 tons / yuan, the overall demand is not as expected, the export market is relatively stable, the enterprise inventory is high, and the willingness to purchase glycine is not strong. At present, the glycine price has dropped to a low level, and there is limited room for further decline. It is expected that the glycine market will be consolidated in the near future.