1、 Price data

As of January 16, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 7630.75 yuan / ton, up 3.88% from 7345.75 yuan / ton on January 1. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 7600-7800 yuan / ton.

As of January 16, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic local refining straight run naphtha was 7602.50 yuan / ton, up 6.18% from 7602.50 yuan / ton on January 1. The actual transaction price of local refining straight run naphtha was about 7500-7700 yuan / ton.

On January 16, the naphtha commodity index was 94.18, unchanged from yesterday, down 8.86% from the highest point of 103.34 in the cycle (2021-10-25), and up 122.96% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Recently, the price of refined naphtha has risen, the trading is light, a small amount of terminal olefins just need to be released, and the manufacturers actively push up the downstream goods preparation before the festival.

Upstream: the international crude oil price rises. Although the epidemic situation in Europe and America is still severe, the symptoms seem to be milder than the previous variants, and the oil price trend rises; In addition, the production increase plan of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) was implemented, the relatively conservative policy was in line with market expectations, and the oil price was supported. Some geopolitical factors such as the interruption of supply in Libya, the unrest in Kazakhstan and some political factors affect the supply expectation, and the international oil price has received some support.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business society, the price of toluene rose continuously. On January 1, the price was 5580.40 yuan / ton, and on January 16, the price was 5930.20 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.27%. The price of mixed xylene rose continuously. On January 1, the price was 5860.00 yuan / ton, and on January 16, the price was 6290.00 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 7.34%. The market price of p-xylene increased by 6700.00 yuan / ton on January 1 and 6900.00 yuan / ton on January 16, with a price increase of 2.99%.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business society believe that the rise of international crude oil, the cost support of naphtha market, a small amount of terminal olefins just need to be released, and the downstream goods are prepared before the festival. It is expected that the refining of naphtha in the near future may rise slightly.

Price rise and fall of main domestic hydrogenated benzene market from January 7 to January 14 (unit: yuan / ton)

Region /, Price on January 7, Price on January 14, Weekly rise and fall

East China, 7275.,7625.,+ three hundred and fifty

Shandong Province, 7100.,7400.,+ three hundred

This week (from January 7 to January 14), the market price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong increased, from 7100 yuan / ton last weekend to 7400 yuan / ton this weekend, up 300 yuan / ton.

Summary of price adjustment of Sinopec pure benzene (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, Adjusted price, Adjustment amount

December 14, 6600.,+150

December 24, 6800.,+200

December 29, 7000.,+200

December 31, 7300.,+300

On December 31, 2021, the listing price of Sinopec pure benzene was increased by 300 yuan / ton, with an implementation rate of 7300 yuan / ton, of which Qilu Petrochemical implemented 7250 yuan / ton.

Other enterprises: HSBC Petrochemical offers 7300 yuan / ton, Jincheng Petrochemical offers 7270 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical offers 7403 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical offers 7350 yuan / ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical offers 7350 yuan / ton.

Crude oil: international crude oil prices closed lower on January 13. The settlement price of the main contract of us WTI crude oil futures was US $82.12/barrel, down US $0.52 or 0.63%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $84.47/barrel, down US $0.20 or 0.24%. The market reacted to the hawk card of the Federal Reserve. The expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates put pressure on oil prices, but tight supply and recovery of demand limited the decline of crude oil, and oil prices fell slightly.

Pure benzene: boosted by fundamental crude oil and styrene, the price of pure benzene was the main player in the week, and the price of hydrogenated benzene increased. After the price rose, the profit of hydrogenated benzene enterprises recovered slightly, and the operating rate is higher than that in the early stage. The shipment of pure benzene in Shandong is good, and the overall inventory is low. At the weekend, affected by the decline of styrene futures, the negotiation price in East China decreased slightly, and the overall transaction atmosphere was weak. At present, there is a demand for goods in the downstream. The improvement of demand drives the price of the industrial chain upward.

In the future, the downstream demand is OK, and there is a certain demand support. The fundamentals are mixed with bad and good, but the overall performance is acceptable. It is expected that the pure benzene industry chain will continue to maintain stable, medium and strong operation, focusing on the impact of fundamental crude oil and downstream price trend on market confidence.

Trade name: TDI

Latest price (January 13): 17850.00 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today, the average price of TDI market in East China rose by 0.28%, which was smaller than yesterday’s increase. During the week, Fujian factory restarted a set of TDI device, but other factories were limited in supply, the spot filling was slow, the market supply was still tight, the traders on the floor were reluctant to sell goods, the offer was high, the goods preparation before the downstream end festival would come to an end, the purchase enthusiasm was weak, and the atmosphere on the floor was cautious and stalemate. The quotation of the distribution market in East China is about 17500-18000 yuan / ton for domestic goods and about 17500-18500 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

Future forecast: the short-term TDI market will be high and wait-and-see, with specific attention to market supply and downstream follow-up.

Trade name: ammonium sulfate

Latest price: 1476 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of ammonium sulfate was stable on January 12, compared with the previous trading day. Today, the market of ammonium sulfate is stable, and the manufacturer adjusts the price flexibly. There are few new orders on the site, insufficient follow-up of downstream demand, and general trading volume. At present, there is a lack of information guidance in the ammonium sulfate field, the price fluctuation is small, and the market fluctuates slightly in the short term.

Future forecast: ammonium sulfate price fluctuates within a narrow range in the short term.

Trade name: cryolite

Latest price (January 11): 7300 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the quotation of domestic cryolite enterprises today is the same as that of the previous working day, and the cryolite market remains stable at a high level. The price trend is mainly affected by the supply side. The heating in winter affects the production restriction of northern manufacturers, and the raw material cost pressure of individual enterprises is still, resulting in the high price operation of cryolite market, the stable downstream demand and little impact. The short-term price fluctuation also needs to pay attention to the supply of upstream raw material market. At present, enterprises hold a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market.

Future forecast: the cryolite market will continue to be stable in the short term, and pay attention to the market supply.