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What will happen in 2025 when the metal silicon market shows a significant decline in 2024?

According to the data monitoring system of Shengyi Society, on January 1, 2024, the domestic market price reference for silicon metal # 441 was 15620 yuan/ton. On December 31, 2024, the market price reference for silicon metal # 441 was 11690 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 3930 yuan/ton or 25.16% for the year.

 

From the trend of the domestic silicon metal market for the whole year of 2024, it can be seen that the spot market for silicon metal will experience a significant decline in 2024. Throughout the year, in the early stages of the year, downstream users have a certain demand to replenish inventory, and the market is at a relatively high level. After the demand ends, the silicon metal market enters a downward channel, and the market center of gravity moves towards a lower level. At the end of the year, taking the spot market situation of silicon metal # 441 as an example, the market price has fallen to around 11500 yuan/ton, a decrease of nearly 4000 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the year.

 

The influencing factors of the 2024 silicon metal market:

 

The metal silicon market will continue to decline in 2024, mainly due to “supply-demand mismatch and intensified contradictions”.

 

Throughout 2024, the overall performance of the metal silicon market supply side is in an oversupply state, and the supply side has always been under pressure. At the beginning of 2024, after downstream users restocked, the “supply-demand contradiction” problem in the metal silicon market became more prominent. Faced with weak downstream demand, high inventory and shipment pressure in the market continued to decline, and market prices continued to decline. The market has a high production and supply pattern, downstream demand has been continuously reduced and fermented, demand has continued to be negative feedback, market pessimism has intensified, and the market continues to decline. Therefore, under the influence of factors such as supply pressure, insufficient demand drive, and macro factors, the metal silicon market has repeatedly hit new lows.

 

Let’s take a look at the trend of the silicon metal market in 2025?

 

1、 Introduction to Metal Silicon

 

Metallic silicon, also known as crystalline silicon or industrial silicon, is an important industrial material mainly used as an additive in non-ferrous alloys. Metallic silicon is mainly smelted from quartz and coke in an electric furnace. Its main component is silicon element, with a content of about 98%. Other impurities include iron, aluminum, calcium, etc.

 

According to the national standard for industrial silicon (GBT 2881-2014), industrial silicon is divided into specifications such as Si1101, Si2202, and Si3303 based on the differences in the content of three main impurities (iron, aluminum, and calcium). The industrial silicon grade is represented by a silicon element symbol and a 4-digit number. The 4-digit number sequentially indicates the maximum content requirements of the main impurity elements iron, aluminum, and calcium in the product. The iron and aluminum contents are taken as one decimal place, and the calcium content is taken as two decimal places. ‌

 

2、 Metal Silicon Industry Chain

 

The upstream of China’s industrial silicon industry chain mainly includes silica, reducing agents (charcoal, coal, etc.), graphite electrodes, methanol, hydrogen chloride, electricity, etc; The midstream is for industrial silicon production and manufacturing, with key enterprises mainly including Hesheng Silicon Industry, Oriental Hope, Xiexin Group, Dongyue Group, and Xin’an Shares; The downstream mainly includes silicon aluminum alloy, organic silicon, polycrystalline silicon, single crystal silicon, etc. Industrial silicon has a wide range of downstream applications and can be used to produce downstream products such as organosilicon, aluminum alloys, and polycrystalline silicon. Among them, polycrystalline silicon is the core raw material of the photovoltaic industry, organic silicon is widely used in fields such as construction, automotive, and electronics, and aluminum alloy is mainly used in industries such as aerospace and automotive manufacturing.

 

Industrial silicon is also used in various fields such as the information industry and new energy. The different demands for industrial silicon products in these fields have prompted the industrial silicon industry to continuously develop new products and improve product quality to meet the diverse needs of downstream industries. For example, due to its unique properties, organosilicon has been widely used in various fields such as electronics, electrical, construction, transportation, and chemical engineering, which has prompted the industrial silicon industry to continuously innovate and improve the production of organosilicon products.

3、 Production capacity of silicon metal

 

In 2024, new production capacity will be released in China’s silicon metal market. By 2024, China’s silicon metal production capacity will reach 7.31 million tons, an increase of 300000 tons or 4.3% compared to 2023. Mainly involving enterprises such as TBEA, Qiya, Baofeng, Tongwei, etc., the projects are mainly focused on integrated upstream and downstream production capacity. It is expected that by 2025, there will still be some new production capacity for metallic silicon in China, mainly including Trina Solar, Tongwei, Xin’an (Yanjin), Yongchang Silicon Industry, and Qiya, but the pace of production may be significantly slower than expected. Despite the existence of new production capacity, the overall operating rate of the market may not be significantly improved due to the sluggish industry atmosphere. In addition, while new production capacity is put into operation, the operating rate of old production capacity may be lowered.

 

4、 Production of silicon metal

 

In 2024, the overall production of silicon metal in China has increased significantly, reaching a historic high. The improvement of operating rate is the main driving force for the production growth. From January to November 2024, China’s silicon metal production was about 4.567 million tons, an increase of 1.116 million tons or 32.3% compared to the same period last year. In 2025, although production capacity has been released to some extent, the overall operating rate of the silicon metal market may not be significantly improved due to the continued downward trend of the market in 2024.

 

Therefore, it is expected that by 2025, the production of metallic silicon in China will be basically the same as or slightly higher than in 2024, and the probability of significantly exceeding the production in 2024 is relatively low.

 

5、 Supply side: Excess supply of metallic silicon will still exist in 2025

 

In 2024, the spot market for metallic silicon showed oversupply throughout the year, putting pressure on the supply side. The pressure mainly comes from the production scheduling push in Xinjiang region. From January to October 2024, the construction in Xinjiang region continued to be at a high level, and the output reached a new high for the year. The southwest region is affected by the dry season, and although there is a low level of construction, the overall construction in the northwest region is relatively high, which can be compensated by the southwest region. In addition, after entering the wet season, construction will return to a high level. Therefore, in 2024, the expectation of reduced production of silicon metal is not good, and the overall market supply is under pressure.

 

In 2025, there will still be some new production capacity released on the silicon metal supply side, and it is expected that the overall market supply will further increase. The state of oversupply will still exist, but it remains to be seen whether the newly added production capacity can be effectively released due to the low prices of oversupply in the current market.

 

6、 In terms of demand, there may be a slowing trend in the demand boost by 2025

 

In 2024, the overall performance of downstream demand in the silicon metal market is poor. In 2025, the downstream polycrystalline silicon market demand may become the main growth point for the demand for metallic silicon. The release of new polycrystalline silicon production capacity will drive the overall demand for metallic silicon to increase. However, with the low-carbon policy reform in 2025, it may be difficult to put some of the newly added downstream production capacity into operation, and some of the existing production capacity has plans to reduce production. Therefore, the downstream polycrystalline silicon demand for metallic silicon will increase narrowly in 2025. The growth rate of downstream photovoltaic industry has slowed down, coupled with the optimization and integration of production capacity in some industrial chains, the demand for metallic silicon has also shown a narrow increase. In terms of downstream organic silicon, the organic silicon market has already passed the peak period of concentrated production capacity release. The organic silicon market is expected to recover steadily in 2025, and there may be some increase in demand for raw material metal silicon. However, due to the average performance of terminal real estate, the overall demand feedback for organic silicon is generally average, and the overall incremental boost is expected to be limited., We still need to pay attention to the improvement of supply and demand in the future.

 

7、 Summary

 

Looking ahead to 2025, the overall performance of the domestic silicon metal market is characterized by a dual increase in supply and demand. Due to the significant seasonal variability of the silicon metal market, there is a high degree of adjustment in the operating rate of the market. Therefore, it is difficult to clear the production capacity of silicon metal throughout the year, and the overcapacity in the market will continue, which will have a certain constraining effect on market prices.

 

Entering 2025, it is expected that during the dry season, there will be no significant accumulation of metal silicon inventory, and market prices will fluctuate at a relatively high level. With the arrival of the wet season and the release of some new production capacity, the overall supply pressure in the market will increase, and the market situation will experience a pullback and fluctuate at a medium low level. More attention should be paid to changes in the supply and demand side.

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This week, zinc prices first suppressed and then rose (1.13-1.17)

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of January 17th, the price of 0 # zinc was 24204 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 2.43% compared to the zinc price of 24806 yuan/ton on January 13th.

 

This week’s market analysis

 

This week, zinc prices continued to decline initially, with signs of recovery over the weekend, showing an overall trend of initially suppressing and then rising. At the macro level, China’s GDP performance exceeded market expectations, and at the same time, the expectation of favorable policies has once again risen. The expectation of overseas interest rate cuts has been partially repaired, which are the main reasons for the rebound of the zinc market in the late trading session. However, given that Trump is about to take office, the potential risks involved cannot be ignored and need to be carefully monitored.

 

Supply and demand side

This week, the smelting profit of refined zinc manufacturers showed a further expansion of losses compared to the beginning of the week. The supply of zinc ore both domestically and internationally is gradually recovering, with domestic processing fees remaining stable while import processing fees have increased. The expansion of this loss is mainly due to the downward shift of the center of gravity of zinc prices.

 

Demand side

As the Spring Festival approaches, some small enterprises in Guangxi and Hunan regions have gradually formulated holiday arrangements, and the expected duration of work stoppage will range from one week to half a month. On the demand side, downstream industries have not received satisfactory orders this month, resulting in a rapid decline in the operating rates of various downstream enterprises.

 

comprehensive analysis

 

The improvement of macro level emotions is the main driving force behind the bottoming out and rebound of zinc prices. However, the expectation of fundamental inventory accumulation still holds, coupled with uncertain factors in the overseas macro environment, which may cause disturbances to zinc prices. Therefore, it is expected that the space for further increase in zinc prices in the short term may be limited.

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Positive news in early January supports tin prices to bottom out and rebound

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China rose this week (1.1-1.10), with an average market price of 245960 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 252190 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 2.53%.

 

Thiourea

This week, the overall tin price fluctuated at a low level and then rose slightly. This week, spot market prices have fluctuated widely with Shanghai tin. From a macro perspective, the government’s policy of offering subsidies for the trade in of consumer electronics has a positive impact on tin prices and provides support. However, with the expectation of the Federal Reserve suspending interest rate cuts, there is no support for the non-ferrous sector and caution is needed.

 

Fundamentally, tin ore supply remained tight in January, and the smelting end gradually entered seasonal shutdowns due to the approaching Spring Festival holiday, resulting in a decrease in supply.

 

On the supply and demand side, the market has gradually started borrowing money to stock up recently, and tin prices have fluctuated and risen within a certain range. With the price increase, downstream sentiment of fear of high prices has emerged, and the willingness to transact has decreased. Downstream soldering companies have shown good order performance and active terminal procurement.

 

Overall, the favorable policies support tin prices, but in the short term, due to the upcoming traditional Spring Festival holiday and the entry of enterprises into holiday mode, market trading volume has decreased. Expected to fluctuate within the tin price range in the short term.

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The magnesium market faces a dilemma of rising and falling in January, with reduced inventory pressure

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province has slightly declined, with an average market price of 16250 yuan/ton at the end of the month and 16266 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 0.10%.

 

This month’s market analysis

 

The magnesium ingot market is expected to remain stable in the first month of 2025. At the beginning of the month, supply and demand were in a stalemate game. In the middle of the month, as factories stabilized and destocked, the pressure on the supply side decreased, and magnesium prices showed a slight rebound at the end of the month.

 

Supply and demand side

As the Spring Festival approaches, the overall willingness of supply side factories to stabilize prices is strong, and they are steadily reducing inventory. Demand side customers are gradually stocking up in advance for the holiday period, and downstream procurement is showing a good situation this month. Downstream trade, based on its own situation, observes the market and prepares goods in an orderly manner, with actual customers mainly purchasing for essential needs.

 

From the perspective of supply and demand, this month has experienced a concentrated destocking, reducing inventory pressure on the factory side. With cost support, prices are expected to remain firm, and the possibility of a pullback may be small.

 

In terms of raw materials

After the pricing of raw material ferrosilicon was finalized in the bidding of Hebei Iron and Steel, the market direction became clear. Other steel mills used this as a reference to carry out a new round of ferrosilicon bidding and procurement. The bidding of major steel mills has been slowly advancing. In addition, there are news of price increases for raw materials such as electricity and transportation costs. There is still some support on the cost side, and some factories in certain regions have little inventory pressure. The fluctuating upward trend of futures market provides favorable support for the spot market. Recently, the spot price of ferrosilicon has been raised by about 50 yuan/ton. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, ferrosilicon (brand: FeSi75~B; The market price for grain size grade/mm: natural blocks in Ningxia region ranges from 6000-6100 yuan/ton, with an average market price of 6081 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.92%.

 

Raw material blue charcoal, the blue charcoal market is currently operating steadily, with a slight decrease in the average bidding price of block coal at the raw material end. The cost pressure on blue charcoal enterprises has slightly eased, and it is currently operating steadily. The Lantan market is operating steadily, with small material prices in the Shenmu area ranging from 750-800 yuan/ton. The production enthusiasm is still acceptable, and the market mentality is stable. There is slight pressure on inventory and shipment, and the export market volume may continue to shrink in the near future. The overall production pace is stable.

 

Future forecast

 

In summary, the current price of magnesium ingots is in a dilemma of rising and falling, with support on the cost side and difficulty in rebounding. But as the Spring Festival approaches and procurement slows down, it does not support price increases. Magnesium prices are expected to remain stable in the short term.

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The supply of goods has decreased, and the price of polyester staple fiber remains on the rise

Recently, there has been a reduction in production and an increase in maintenance of domestic polyester staple fiber facilities, resulting in a significant decline in the industry’s operating load rate. The supply of goods has also decreased, which has driven favorable prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 20th, the average ex factory price of 1.4D * 38mm in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 7318 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.69% from the beginning of the month.

 

In addition, the strong cost also supports the price of polyester staple fiber. Under the relay of many favorable factors, crude oil prices have risen continuously for several days, and the increase is significant. As of January 17th, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $77.39 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was $80.79 per barrel.

 

The PTA spot market trend followed the rise of crude oil, and a 1.25 million ton PTA plant in South China was shut down for maintenance. In addition, the official announcement of maintenance plans for multiple PTA plants by major suppliers also boosted the PTA market. As of January 20th, the PTA market price in East China was 5081 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.08% from the beginning of the month.

 

But the demand side continues to drag down the price of polyester staple fibers, and downstream yarn factories are gradually shutting down and taking holidays, resulting in a decrease in demand. The atmosphere of the Spring Festival holiday is gradually becoming stronger, new orders are being placed slowly, market participants’ trading enthusiasm is decreasing, and their stocking mentality is cautious.

 

Business analysts believe that in the short term, demand will remain weak, downstream factories will gradually start holidays, production will gradually decrease, and there is a trend of weakening on the cost side. It is expected that the price of polyester staple fibers may decline.

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