This week, the domestic epoxy propane market price fluctuated narrowly. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of August 21st, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 7600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.40% compared to the beginning of the month.
Price influencing factors:
Raw material side: This week, the price of raw material propylene has fallen, and the cost support of epoxy propane has weakened. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of August 21st, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6548.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.79% compared to the beginning of this month (6433.25 yuan/ton).
Supply side: Some factories in Shandong have smooth shipments, but inventory is tight, and there is a positive attitude towards pushing up the epoxy propane market. It is expected that the market price of epoxy propane will mainly fluctuate and operate strongly in the short term.
On the demand side: downstream essential procurement of epoxy propane is the main focus, with average new order volume and some low-priced transactions still acceptable. Due to poor demand transmission and insufficient driving force for the rise of epoxy propane, it is expected that the epoxy propane market price will mainly fluctuate narrowly in the near future.
Market forecast:
An epoxy propane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the supply of epoxy propane in the market is tight, and raw material prices have also declined. In addition, downstream markets have a strong demand for purchasing, and the trading atmosphere is average, which limits the market’s upward momentum. It is expected that the short-term epoxy propane market will mainly experience narrow fluctuations, and more attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices and upstream and downstream supply and demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PP market fluctuated and fell in mid August, with some brand products experiencing price reductions. As of August 20th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7215 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.03% compared to the price level at the beginning of July.
price trend
In terms of raw materials:
In mid August, the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe eased, and market concerns about unstable crude oil supply weakened. At the same time, OPEC+production expectations were clear, and there were certain negative factors in international oil prices. The trend of propane follows that of crude oil, and the cost support of PDH manufacturing enterprises has declined. The supply of propylene has tightened and then loosened, coupled with insufficient demand follow-up, causing prices to rise first and then fall synchronously within the range. Overall, the prices of PP raw materials within the range show a loosening trend in cost support.
Supply side:
In mid August, the operating rate of domestic PP enterprises remained stable with a small increase. The overall industry load level within the range has narrowly increased to 78%, with a weekly average total output of over 780000 tons. The current on-site supply remains abundant, with inventory levels approaching over 830000 tons and slow digestion. Overall, there has been no improvement in the support for spot prices from the PP supply side, and there are still many pressures.
In terms of demand:
In mid August, the trend of low season consumption of polypropylene continued, and the demand for PP remained weak, resulting in a quiet trading atmosphere on the market. Merchants have a low willingness to stock up in advance, with a focus on scattered small orders and contract delivery for new orders on site, and a preference for on-demand operations. The liquidity of the supply is average, and the release speed of PP demand remains slow. As we approach the end of August, the peak and off peak seasons are about to change. Although downstream enterprises have low loads, there is a potential willingness to build warehouses in areas such as plastic weaving, construction, and agriculture. However, the current macro guidance is not clear, and in the pattern of weak exports and domestic demand, the demand side of PP does not provide strong support for spot prices.
Future forecast
In mid August, the domestic PP market prices fluctuated and fell. Fundamentally speaking, there are signs of loosening in the upstream raw material market, and overall support for PP has weakened. The industry load is high, stable, and slightly rising, with expectations of loose supply in the future, and consumption is at a low season level. The current supply-demand contradiction is difficult to improve, and the mentality of industry players is bearish. It is expected that the PP market will continue to remain stagnant in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic light rare earth market price trend has risen. On August 18th, the Shengyi Society Rare Earth Index was 525 points, up 18 points from yesterday, a decrease of 47.86% from the highest point of 1007 points during the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 93.73% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
Domestic prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide have all significantly increased. As of the 19th, the price of neodymium oxide was 650000 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.18% since August; The price of neodymium metal is 777500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 17.80%; The price of praseodymium oxide is 642500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 18.43%; The price of praseodymium metal is 765000 yuan/ton, with a price trend increase of 14.18%; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 762500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 15.97%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 625000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 20.19%.
In August, the domestic light rare earth market prices rose significantly, and the domestic light rare earth market supply was relatively tight. There were macro news leaks, and the supply and demand pattern of praseodymium neodymium products may further tighten, exacerbating market expectations of shortages. As a result, the light rare earth market prices rose significantly. The booming development of downstream industries such as new energy vehicles and home appliances has driven downstream magnetic material factories to see a significant increase in orders in the fourth quarter. In addition, sufficient orders from magnetic material manufacturers have boosted domestic demand for light rare earths, leading to an upward trend in the light rare earth market.
After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s rare earth production share has declined from 90% to 70%, which has brought certain benefits to the domestic rare earth market.
Market forecast: Recently, magnetic material companies have shown positive purchasing sentiment, and the supply-demand game in the light rare earth market continues. The supply-demand imbalance of praseodymium neodymium series products is evident; In addition, the long-term growth trend of terminal demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines, and other devices remains unchanged. The penetration rate of high-performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets in the terminal is expected to continue to increase, and the market trend of light rare earths is expected to rise in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA spot market has shown a downward trend since August. As of August 18th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 4720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.09% from the beginning of the month.
In terms of PTA equipment, Taihua and Hainan have shut down, while Weilian and Jiaxing have restarted. The shutdown of the equipment has been reduced for continued maintenance, and the overall supply has rebounded. The 3.2 million ton unit of Hailun Petrochemical was tested and discharged at the end of July, gradually increasing its load, and the overall operating rate of the industry remained around 76%.
The peak season for traditional fuel consumption in the United States is coming to an end, and supply side risks have not been eliminated. International oil prices are mainly experiencing weak fluctuations in the short term. As of August 15th, the settlement price of the September WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $62.80 per barrel, and the settlement price of the October Brent crude oil futures contract was $65.85 per barrel.
The space for downstream polyester load recovery is limited, and under the constraint of high weaving inventory, seasonal hoarding has not shown significant improvement. Polyester factories still have expectations for the traditional peak season, but it is difficult to achieve sustained replenishment without widespread demand recovery. Maintain a wait-and-see atmosphere overall, with a focus on essential procurement.
Business analysts believe that the current PTA new plant is put into operation, with a slight increase in the supply side. In addition, the international oil price performance is sluggish, the cost center continues to decline, and coupled with the overall weak trend of commodities, it is expected that PTA prices will continue to fluctuate and decline.

Price trend: (8.9-8.15)
This week, nickel prices showed a trend of rising and falling. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, on August 15th, spot electrolytic nickel was reported at 121850 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.58%, but still a year-on-year decrease of 5.40%. At the beginning of the week, nickel prices surged due to macroeconomic favorable factors such as the expected increase in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the temporary suspension of tariffs between China and the United States. However, they later fell back due to factors such as high inventory suppression and weak demand for stainless steel, maintaining an overall volatile consolidation pattern.
In terms of market transactions, there has been an increase in demand purchases after prices have fallen. Traders have reported that some downstream companies have hit low prices, but the overall market is still mainly on a wait-and-see basis, and the sustainability remains to be observed.
Macro: Loose expectations support, but policy uncertainty still exists
The expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut has strengthened: the US CPI in July was 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.8%. The market’s probability of a rate cut in September has risen to 94%, and the US dollar index has fallen to around 98, supporting metal prices.
Suspension of Sino US trade friction: Both sides continue to agree to suspend the 24% tariff for 90 days to alleviate market concerns, but the 10% benchmark tariff still exists and there are still variables in subsequent negotiations.
Geopolitical tensions ease: US and Russian heads of state meet to discuss a ceasefire in Ukraine, leading to a cooling of market risk aversion. However, Zelensky refuses a “territorial exchange,” and further progress remains to be observed.
Domestic industrial demand remains stable: In July, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 5.7% year-on-year and 0.38% month on month, indicating stable demand in the manufacturing industry, but the direct boost to nickel prices is limited.
Macro summary: Short term liquidity easing expectations support nickel prices, but high inventory and weak demand limit the rebound height, and the market is still waiting for clearer policy signals.
Supply side: inventory pressure remains high, mineral prices are differentiated
Nickel ore supply: Indonesian nickel ore prices remain stable (1.8% Ni FOB $78/wet ton), with stable supply. The low-grade nickel ore in the Philippines continues to decline (0.9% Ni CIF $42/wet ton, down 2.3% weekly), mainly due to the end of the rainy season and an increase in shipping volume.
Inventory pressure still exists: LME nickel inventory decreased by 570 tons per week to 211662 tons. Shanghai nickel inventory increased by 1520 tons to 22141 tons per week, and remains at a high level overall.
Smelting profit pressure: The production profit margin of nickel pig iron (NPI) has dropped to 3.2%, and some enterprises have reduced production, but it has not yet formed a significant constraint on the supply side.
Demand side: weak recovery of stainless steel, slowing growth of new energy
Stainless steel demand: Production scheduled for August was 3.3041 million tons, a month on month increase of 2.29% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.64%, indicating a transition from off-season to peak season, but slow destocking and average market transactions. On August 15th, the benchmark price of stainless steel in Shengyi Society was 12264.29 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.42% per week, but terminal procurement remains cautious.

New energy demand: The production of ternary precursors increased by 5.71% month on month in July, but considering the digestion of pre orders in August, the growth rate is expected to slow down to 5.4%. The production of ternary materials increased by 5.75% month on month in July, and the expected growth rate in August is expected to drop to 3.07%, with a marginal slowdown in demand growth. In terms of spot purchases, when the price drops below 121000 yuan/ton, there is an increase in demand purchases, but the overall market is still dominated by destocking, and the sustainability is questionable.
Future outlook:
The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and progress in US China trade may support a slight increase in nickel prices due to liquidity, but geopolitical uncertainty and high inventory pressure are restraining the rise in nickel prices. It is expected that nickel prices will continue to fluctuate.