1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market fluctuated within the range this week (11.17-21), and the price performance was weak. As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4416 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.96% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
This week, PVC continued its previous weak market trend, with most manufacturers offering stable prices and some mainly lowering prices within 100 yuan. Since November, the PVC market has continued to fluctuate within a weak range. On the one hand, there is a lack of favorable fundamentals, and crude oil prices have been consistently weak, with prices hovering at low levels and a weak futures market. The spot price of PVC is also unlikely to have a strong trend, with a slight downward shift in the overall range. More importantly, the supply and demand fundamentals remain in a pattern of oversupply, and the supply and demand of the spot PVC market continue to be loose. Most manufacturers are operating stably, and the PVC production rate continues to increase this week. Supply pressure remains high, dealer offers are generally weak, downstream demand performance is insufficient, downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, inquiry and procurement enthusiasm is not high, and market atmosphere is sluggish. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 4450-4520 yuan/ton.
In terms of upstream calcium carbide, the performance of the calcium carbide market was sluggish this week, and the price did not continue the previous downward trend, but still hovered at the bottom. According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the fluctuation range this week was 0. The price is still relatively low, with limited support for PVC.
3、 Future forecast
The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the PVC spot market will continue to perform poorly in the short term, with prices continuing to fluctuate weakly. On the one hand, the supply pressure is not decreasing, and next week we are facing the expectation of starting work, which is bearish for the supply. In addition, the operating rate of downstream factories is insufficient, the demand is average, and the supply-demand pattern is difficult to change in the short term. It is expected that PVC prices will not have a good performance next week.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market has shown a fluctuating upward trend since November. As of November 20th, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4656 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.48% from the beginning of the month. Thanks to the lifting of BIS certification in India and the early maintenance of some PTA facilities due to unforeseen circumstances, the upper supply structure has been improved and export growth is expected to be driven. However, the market lacks new drivers, so the overall price increase in the market is not significant.
In the future, under the trend of oversupply in the crude oil market, there is a natural downward drive for the center of gravity of oil prices. However, geopolitical factors continue to inject uncertainty into the market and to some extent hedge the downward pressure of oversupply. Oil prices will maintain a fluctuating and repetitive operating rhythm, and in the short term, they will continue to maintain high volatility characteristics. As of November 19th, the settlement price of the December WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $59.44 per barrel, and the settlement price of the January Brent crude oil futures contract was $63.51 per barrel.
In terms of PTA’s own supply, the domestic industry’s operating load is around 71%. Short term PTA processing fees are still low, and inventory remains low.
The cancellation of BIS certification in India has led to a significant improvement in downstream polyester filament inquiries, coupled with the restart of polyester facilities and the planned deployment of new polyester production capacity, which has driven a rebound in PTA demand. In the short term, polyester prices are still supported by cost increases and expectations of increased polyester exports from India.
Business analysts believe that there are still plans for PTA equipment maintenance within the month, downstream polyester demand remains stable, PTA supply and demand continue to be depleted, and prices remain relatively strong. But with the seasonal decline in demand and the slow decrease in terminal load, the upward momentum of PTA prices is hindered.

Market Overview (11.7-11.18)
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 18th, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was 117383 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.14% during the week, hitting a five-year low and a year-on-year decline of 5.97%. The continuous decline in nickel prices is mainly suppressed by three factors: macroeconomic pressure, oversupply, and weak demand.
Macro level:
Limited policy adjustments in Indonesia: Although the Indonesian Government Regulation No. 28 of 2025 restricts investment in new nickel smelters and plans to lower the nickel ore quota (RKAB) for 2026, the policy has a weak impact on short-term supply and the market response is flat. In the long run, the supply of nickel ore in Indonesia remains high and has not been able to reverse expectations of oversupply.
Economic and policy uncertainty in the United States: The lack of employment data and the risk of government shutdown have dragged down economic expectations, and GDP in the fourth quarter may decline by 1.5%. There is a clear divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding the path of interest rates, with hawkish signals suppressing expectations of rate cuts, and the strengthening of the US dollar intensifying downward pressure on commodity prices denominated in US dollars, including nickel.
China’s economic resilience vs. insufficient demand support: China’s industrial added value increased by 4.9% year-on-year in October, and equipment manufacturing industry grew by 8.0%, indicating the resilience of economic recovery. However, the downstream areas of nickel (such as stainless steel and new energy) have not improved synchronously, and macro benefits have not been transmitted to the nickel demand side.
Supply side:
Loose supply at the mining end: Typhoon weather in the Philippines only briefly affected shipments, and the domestic trade price of Indonesia’s second phase nickel ore in November slightly fell to $14998.67 per ton, reflecting an overall sufficient supply at the mining end and weakened cost support.
Global inventory continues to accumulate: LME nickel inventory increased by 4566 tons to 257694 tons during the cycle, and domestic Shanghai nickel inventory increased by 2735 tons to 35424 tons. The synchronous increase of internal and external inventory highlights the stable pattern of oversupply in the global nickel market, directly suppressing the rebound space of nickel prices.
Demand side:
Weak demand for stainless steel: Social inventory of stainless steel has accumulated. On November 18th, the spot price of stainless steel in Shengyi Society was reported at 12550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.95% during the cycle. The lack of willingness for steel mills to reduce production and the lack of improvement in terminal consumption (construction, home appliances, etc.) have caused fluctuations in the stainless steel market, dragging down demand for nickel.
Weakened support in the field of new energy: The penetration rate of lithium iron phosphate battery technology route has increased, continuously squeezing the market for low and medium nickel ternary materials. The addition of overseas tariff barriers restricts the export of precursor materials, and the demand growth momentum for nickel in the new energy sector is insufficient.
Market forecast:
Short term nickel prices will continue to be under pressure and operate weakly. Supply surplus and inventory pressure remain unresolved, and there is no significant improvement signal on the demand side. Nickel prices may continue to bottom out.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of domestic grade ammonium sulfate on November 14th was 1053 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.61% compared to the average market price of 1036 yuan/ton on November 8th.
2、 Market analysis
supply and demand situation
The price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market has slightly increased this week. This week, the operating rate of ammonium sulfate enterprises has remained stable, and internal level enterprises may adjust their equipment or reduce its load in the future. Ammonium sulfate manufacturers are mainly raising prices, while coking grade ammonium sulfate is temporarily stable, and prices from domestic manufacturers have been raised. Downstream urgent replenishment requires a wait-and-see attitude, and the market trading atmosphere is light.
market situation
As of November 14th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 940 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 1020-1060 yuan/ton.
3、 Future forecast
An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the market trend of ammonium sulfate has been stable and rising recently. At present, the demand for ammonium sulfate in the market is stable, and the domestic market is improving. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic ammonium sulfate market will mainly experience a narrow upward trend in price consolidation.

There has been no significant improvement in the fundamentals this week, with overall supply remaining loose and the market range consolidating. As of November 14th, the mainstream tank discharge price in East China ports has increased by 8000-8150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week’s low-end and an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the high-end; Short distance delivery to the Shandong market costs 7800-8000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week’s low-end price.
Loose supply:
The fundamental fluctuations in supply and demand during the cycle are not significant, and the overall sales of manufacturers are stable, with inventory maintained at a controllable pace. According to statistics, as of November 13th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories reached 78.68%, an increase of 0.69% compared to the previous cycle; The weekly output is about 89700 tons, which is+0.08 million tons compared to the previous cycle. The total inventory is about 52800 tons, which is+0.02 million tons compared to last week and basically the same as last week.
Requirements:
This week, the capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries has increased, with ABS capacity utilization rate at 71.8%, an increase of 0.2% compared to last week; Capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises: 73.39%, unchanged from last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity is 54.64%, an increase of 1.36% compared to last week. Overall, the overall demand growth is limited.
Cost reduction:
During the week, the prices of upstream propylene and synthetic ammonia rebounded, and the cost of raw materials for acrylonitrile production increased. At the same time, acrylonitrile prices still showed a slight upward trend, and this week’s production profits have staged a recovery. As of November 13th, the market price of propylene in Shandong was 5760-5800 yuan/ton, an increase of 170 yuan/ton from last weekend’s 5600-5630 yuan/ton. At the same time, the price of acrylonitrile slightly increased, and the production loss situation significantly improved this week. According to statistics, the average production cost of acrylonitrile this week was 8180 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 0.42%. The average production profit of acrylonitrile during the same period was -99 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 6 yuan/ton.
In the later stage prediction, the domestic acrylonitrile market is currently fluctuating within a certain range, with no pressure on the inventory of the main contract factories and continuous price hikes. At the same time, there is unplanned demand in the Shandong market in the short term, supporting the mentality of industry players. However, the overall supply is still loose, and the short-term market range is mainly consolidating.