India’s new annual potash fertilizer contract was signed at the end of January. Belarusian potash fertilizer company and Indian potash fertilizer company IPL signed a contract to supply potash fertilizer to India, planning to supply 800000 tons of potash fertilizer to the Indian market. Compared with the price of 230 US dollars / ton signed in May 2020, the price has increased by 17 US dollars / ton, and the CIF price is 247 US dollars / ton. The news added to the wait-and-see mood in the domestic potash fertilizer market.

 

The domestic potassium sulfate Market as a whole did not change significantly, and the factory price continued to be strong, basically continuing the previous price. In terms of operating rate, affected by the recent epidemic in Hebei Province, the operating rate of Mannheim factory has dropped to about 40%, while that in Shandong Province has increased to about 75% – 80%. According to the business agency’s test, the ex factory price of 50% powdered Mannheim potassium sulfate is about 2650 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of 50% granulated Mannheim potassium sulfate is about 2725 yuan / ton, which is basically the same as last week.

 

At present, the production of sdic-l-k is normal, mainly based on the pre shipment orders, and the arrival price of 52% powder is about 2750 yuan / ton. Qinghai water salt system manufacturers start limited, 50% of the powder to the station price is 2600 yuan / ton.

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According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the price of lithium carbonate is still rising recently, and the price of electric carbon of some dealers has reached 80000 yuan / ton. On February 3, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 71200 yuan / ton, which was 4.4% higher than that at the beginning of the week (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 68200 yuan / ton on January 31). On February 3, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 76000 yuan / ton, which was 4.97% higher than that at the beginning of the week (the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 72400 yuan / ton on January 31). On March 3, the comprehensive quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate market was around 65000-75000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate market was around 70000-80000 yuan / ton.

 

By observing the market changes, the price of lithium carbonate is still in an upward trend before the Spring Festival holiday. At present, large lithium salt factories in Jiangxi and Sichuan have stopped production one after another, and most lithium salt factories have stopped quoting. But the price is still in the market-oriented state, so the shipping price continues to rise. At present, the lithium carbonate market is very bullish. In addition, there are more maintenance of lithium carbonate enterprises in February, which may have an impact on the production and supply in February. Therefore, the market inquiry and locking up in advance before the festival are increasing. And the logistics outage is more, which will also make the recent transport costs will increase significantly, driving the overall price up.

 

The market of industrial grade lithium hydroxide in the lower reaches is running strongly. At present, the lower reaches are preparing goods before the festival, increasing inquiries, and increasing demand. The operators have no intention to lower down, and the focus of market negotiation is moving up. In terms of lithium iron phosphate power market, due to the rapid rise of lithium carbonate price, the price adjustment frequency of lithium iron enterprises has also been increased, the quotation of merchants is firm, the rising psychology still exists, the business starts normally, and the merchants ship actively.

 

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the lithium carbonate commodity index on February 2 was 178.34, up 3.56 points from yesterday, down 55.98% from 405.10 points (2018-01-07), the highest point in the cycle, and up 80.98% from 98.54 points, the lowest point on October 16, 2014. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

 

Lithium carbonate analysts of business news agency believe that with the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday, the fluctuation range of lithium carbonate price may gradually slow down, and for some enterprises with higher quotations, the price will also remain until the end of February. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will remain at a high level before the Spring Festival, while the price of lithium carbonate may still rise after the festival.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the data monitored by the business community (the average price of SG5 manufactured by calcium carbide method), on January 31, the mainstream average price of PVC in China was 7175 yuan / ton, down 1.98% compared with 7320 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 5.13% compared with the same period last year.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

In January, the PVC market was depressed first and then rose, with a watershed in the middle of the month and a decrease of about 2% in the whole month. The price fluctuated little. In January, the off-season demand is expected to weaken, especially the poor transportation in some parts of the north, as well as the early shutdown of some downstream enterprises, resulting in the decline of the operating rate and the weakening of the support for the demand for PVC. In addition, the price of raw calcium carbide has fallen, the number of maintenance enterprises is small, the market supply is sufficient, and the trading atmosphere is weak. The enterprises are looking for good prices and good delivery, with a decrease of 4.88% in the first half of the month. The turning point in the second half of the month was mainly due to the rebound of futures prices, the repeated public health incidents in some areas, the poor transportation in some areas, the limited arrival resources, and the increase in exports. There was a certain reserve demand in the downstream years ago, which led to the decline of inventory and the rise of PVC prices. Near the end of the month, the market recovered calm and the trend was relatively strong.

 

According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of statistics, in December 2020, the domestic PVC production was 1.914 million tons, up 6.0% compared with the same period last year; in 2020, the cumulative domestic PVC production was 20.74 million tons, up 3.3% compared with the same period last year

 

In terms of spot, the mainstream quotation range of pvc5 calcium carbide in China is around 6900-7400 yuan / ton. The main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in East China is around 7300-7400 yuan / ton, the main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in Hebei is 7070-7130 yuan / ton, the range of pvc5 calcium carbide in Hangzhou is 7270-7400 yuan / ton, the main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in Changzhou is 7300-7450 yuan / ton, and the main stream price of PVC common calcium carbide in Guangzhou is 7330-7550 yuan / ton.

 

In terms of futures, the main PVC futures contract V 2105 on the first day reduced its position by a large amount, and the futures price rose and fell, closing at 7280 yuan on the same day, which was – 135 yuan compared with the previous trading day; the trading volume was 364483, and the position was 352155, – 23490; the basis was 70.

 

Regional varieties: February 2, 2007

Changzhou PVC calcium carbide process: 7300-7450 yuan / ton

Guangzhou ﹣ PVC ﹣ calcium carbide method ﹣ 7330-7550 yuan / ton

Hebei PVC calcium carbide process: 7070-7130 yuan / ton

Hangzhou PVC calcium carbide process: RMB 7270-7400 / T

 

Upstream crude oil. On February 1, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $53.55/barrel, up US $1.35. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, the main contract settlement price at 56.35 U.S. dollars / barrel, or 1.31 U.S. dollars. WTI and Brent rose by more than 2% on Monday, mainly due to the decline of US crude oil stocks and the rise of fuel demand caused by snowstorms in the northeast of the United States, which helped oil prices.

 

In January, the external market of ethylene showed a trend of first rising and then falling. At present, crude oil: US crude oil inventory is declining, but the market’s continued concern about the epidemic has limited oil demand, international oil prices fluctuate slightly, and cost support is general. Therefore, data analysts from business news agency predict that the external price of ethylene will mainly fall in the next few days.

 

In January, the price of calcium carbide dropped sharply, reaching 3083.33 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 20.74% from 3890 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 9.86% year on year. On February 2, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China was temporarily stable, the price of raw material blue carbon was high, and the cost of calcium carbide was well supported. Downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide is normal, the output of calcium carbide rises, and the market supply exceeds the demand. It is expected that calcium carbide will fluctuate slightly in the future.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Business community PVC analysts believe that in January, PVC first suppressed and then rose, and rebounded in the second half of the month. However, in the off-season of demand, the rise is difficult to last. At present, the market is calm, the year is approaching, the downstream industry is closed for holidays, the support of demand side continues to decline, the trading atmosphere turns light, and the market negotiation price is obviously stable, but the price of PVC is expected to be stable in the short term, and there is a risk of downward trend in the future.

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According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of January 31, the reference ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 13266 yuan / ton, which was 33 yuan / ton lower than that on January 25 (reference price was 13300 yuan / ton); compared with that on January 1 (reference price was 12633 yuan / ton), the average price was 1933 yuan / ton higher, or 17.06%.

 

Since the beginning of January, the domestic industrial grade propylene glycol market has been steadily rising under the dual support of rising raw materials and low inventory. It has been running at a high level all the way to the end of January. Towards the end of the month, the propylene glycol market has been shaken and adjusted. The price of propylene oxide is weak and stable, and the support for the cost of propylene glycol is weakened. On the 27th and 28th of the end of the month, the transaction price of propylene glycol market is loose, and it is heard that the yield is 20% As of January 31, the overall market of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was still at a high level, and the reference transaction price was around 13000-14000 yuan / ton.

 

On the supply side, at present, the overall start-up of propylene glycol production enterprises is low, with an operating rate of about 40%. Previously, the propylene glycol equipment maintenance of Shandong large factories was delayed, and the spot supply of secondary cargo holders was short. Although the overall inventory was low, the factory continued to actively increase orders, and began to make small profits at the end of January. The actual transaction price was loose.

 

In terms of demand, downstream industries continue to purchase just as they need to, while affected by transportation, the new single increment is general. At present, propylene glycol is mainly operated at a high level.

 

In terms of raw materials, at the end of January, there was no pressure on the delivery of propylene oxide in the factory as a whole, but the feedback from the downstream was general, the market was temporarily stable, and there was a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. At present, the inventory pressure of the factory was not large, and the market support mentality remained. The main factories kept their offer stable, but the downstream resisted high prices, and the price depression was common. The supply and demand sides played games, and the market continued to sort out and wait-and-see The average quotation price of propane enterprises was 17133.33 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the previous trading day and the beginning of the week, and decreased by 9.35% compared with January 1 (18900.00).

 

Rigid demand oriented, short-term weak Operation Oriented

 

At present, with the gradual end of pre festival goods preparation and the stoppage of logistics in many regions, the demand for propylene glycol is weak and just needs to be supported. Therefore, it is expected that the price adjustment of domestic propylene glycol market will be limited in the short term and the weak operation will be dominant.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the data of business club’s block list, the overall price trend of cryolite market in January was stable. The average market price at the end of the month was 5975 yuan / ton, with an increase of 3.02% compared with 5800 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 1.27% compared with the same period last year.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

This month, the market of cryolite in Henan Province rose slightly. The orders of enterprises were OK. Most of them were sold according to orders. The downstream demand was general. The holiday was approaching. Replenishment was mainly on demand, and the market trading atmosphere was cold. In terms of devices, the enterprises start up normally and the market inventory is sufficient. At present, the annual output of cryolite in Zhengzhou Zerun energy and Chemical Co., Ltd. is 10000 tons, and the devices start up normally. At present, the cryolite in Jiaozuo mingmingminli Industrial Co., Ltd. is in full load production, and the operations are normal. The annual output of cryolite in Zhengzhou Tianrui Crystal Technology Co., Ltd. is 30000 tons / year, and about 70% of the devices start up at present. As of the 29th, the ex factory price of cryolite in Henan Province was 5000-6500 yuan / ton, while that in Shandong Province was 5500-6800 yuan / ton. The manufacturers had a single negotiation, and the actual transaction price was flexible, mainly through negotiation.

 

On the upstream side, the price trend of domestic fluorite market continued to rise, but the overall increase was small. The average price of fluorite at the end of the month was 2741.11 yuan / ton, up 0.82% from the beginning of the month. Due to the weather, some fluorite plants were shut down, the fluorite supply in the plant was a little tight, the market price rose slightly, and the downstream was favorable to support the later stage or maintain a high level.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

At present, the market of cryolite is in sufficient stock, the situation of manufacturers’ shipment is general, the demand of downstream is generally not significantly improved, the holiday is approaching, the festival atmosphere is strong, the market trading is weak, and the short-term cryolite market is temporarily stable.

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