This week (1.11-15), the price of domestic polysilicon market rose slightly, and the bottom of the price rebounded. The price of domestic market and imported materials rebounded to varying degrees. According to the monitoring of business society, polysilicon rose by 1.28% this week. The main reason is that with the normal operating rate of enterprises, the downstream silicon material manufacturers focus on purchasing, and the market is pushed up under the influence of the booming supply and demand pattern. As of January 15, according to the monitoring of the business agency, the current domestic mainstream transaction price of polysilicon with grade I solar material is 55000-59000 yuan / ton, and the tax inclusive price of polysilicon in non China region is 65000-68000 yuan / ton

Since the middle of December last year, the price of polycrystalline silicon has bottomed out and continued to rise. In 2021, the market atmosphere is more positive. The prices of both domestic manufacturers and imported goods are on the rise. Although the range is not large, the pace of moderate rise has never stopped. The resonance is affected by the warming of single crystal, and the whole silicon industry has a long lost spring.

On the supply side, at present, the operating rate of domestic polysilicon manufacturers remains high. Up to now, about 11 domestic polysilicon manufacturers are in normal operation, and the market supply is relatively stable. However, the current high operating rate does not lead to stock accumulation. Generally, the orders of enterprises are well signed. Orders are basically signed in January, and some enterprises begin to sign new orders in February. In addition, in terms of demand, the downstream manufacturers are also accelerating the process of digestion in the near future. The operating rate of silicon wafer manufacturers has increased, and the procurement of silicon materials has increased. This mainly depends on the stability of the current demand. The downstream silicon wafer manufacturers, especially the single crystal silicon wafer, are in short supply.

In the near future, polysilicon will maintain a warming trend, and the operating rate of enterprises is expected to maintain a high level in the near future. Affected by the pre Festival purchasing volume of downstream silicon wafers, polysilicon may maintain a pattern of prosperous supply and demand. It is expected that the price of silicon materials will still have upward space due to the influence of early preparation of downstream goods before the festival.

Note: the above price includes tax

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of caustic soda market at the beginning of the year was 632 yuan / ton, and at the end of the year, the average price of caustic soda market was 485 yuan / ton, with a drop of 57.23%.

 
2020 is not an easy year for caustic soda, and the price has fallen to the bottom. As can be seen from the figure above, caustic soda has shown a downward trend in the whole year. Only in February, may, June and October, the price has increased in four months. And the price of the whole year is lower than that of 2019 and 2018, so the price trend of caustic soda is difficult.

2、 Market analysis

In January, the price of caustic soda was mainly weak and stable. The overall performance of domestic caustic soda market is calm, the demand side continues to be weak, there is no good support for the caustic soda market, the supply expectation is reduced, the market operators mainly wait and see, and the market trading atmosphere is general. Lack of demand support, domestic caustic soda market continued to run low before the Spring Festival.

In February, due to the impact of the epidemic situation in the lower reaches, the enterprises did not start enough, and the demand for caustic soda was limited. Logistics has not fully recovered, and the enterprise has difficulties in shipping. The overall demand for caustic soda is not much. The overall operation of the domestic market is mainly flat.

3. In April, the domestic caustic soda market as a whole did not change much. The downstream printing and dyeing, chemical fiber, chemical industry and other industries of caustic soda were still in normal operation, and the market demand changed generally. Chlor alkali enterprises’ shipment is flat, and the transportation is better than before, but at present, many places are in a wait-and-see mentality, the downstream demand is general, and the market transaction is flat.

5. In June, with the warming weather, about 76% of domestic alumina production started, and the downstream industries such as papermaking, printing and dyeing still need to purchase. Caustic soda plant maintenance good and spot is not much, continue to support the market. On the macro level, tank car accidents may lead to severe investigations on the production and transportation of hazardous chemicals in China, and small and medium-sized and micro downstream enterprises may start or be affected.

7. In August and September, the domestic price of liquid caustic soda was basically stable, with strong awareness of price support in the upstream and weak demand in the downstream. The change of terminal demand is limited. The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong Province, the main production area, fell to a low level, the overall supply exceeded demand.. The weakening of downstream demand leads to the weakening of prices. The overall supply of caustic soda exceeds the demand, and there is no sign of improvement in demand. On the whole, the downstream demand can not drive the price of caustic soda better.

October is the traditional peak season, and the demand side has a certain support. October is also the peak period of maintenance, and Jinling in Shandong Province stopped 100000 tons unexpectedly. During the National Day holiday, due to the blocking of liquid chlorine highway transportation, some chlor alkali enterprises’ commodity chlorine appeared unsalable, and the starting load of individual chlor alkali enterprises decreased. Support some manufacturers to raise the price of caustic soda.

11. In December, the downstream purchase demand of caustic soda is general, and there is a certain conflict with the current price of caustic soda. It is expected that the follow-up or narrow range of caustic soda will be weak. The factory price of caustic soda is stable as a whole, the cost changes little, and the operation is mainly stable and small. The downstream purchase demand is general, which has a certain conflict with the current price of caustic soda.

The price of caustic soda in 2020 will be lower than that in 2018 and 2019. Since February 2019, the operation rate of downstream alumina industry, which is the largest producer of caustic soda, has been in a low state. The weak profit will hit the enthusiasm of alumina enterprises to start operation, and the demand for caustic soda will continue to be low. The paper industry is booming, but with the application of pulp alkali recovery technology and the increase of the proportion of wood pulp, the alkali consumption of the industry has decreased, and the demand increment is not obvious. The overall supply of caustic soda is sufficient, the overall ex factory price of caustic soda is stable and small, and the cost side changes little. However, the price of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda has been at a low level since 2015. The overall supply of caustic soda is sufficient, and the price of caustic soda may continue to be under pressure, depending on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the domestic PA6 market weakened in early January, and individual sources of goods decreased by a large margin. As of January 13 of the new year, the mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 for Zhongyou was about 12500 yuan / ton, which was 3.35% lower than the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 The influencing factors were analyzed

Upstream, the current domestic caprolactam market to undertake last month’s high callback market, after new year’s Day manufacturers continue to lower the ex factory price. The raw material pure benzene is affected by the high profit of international crude oil, and the cost support is enhanced. At the same time, the price of pure benzene in Asia rose in a wide range, and the price of styrene in the lower reaches picked up. In the first ten days of January, the price of pure benzene rose in shock. However, caprolactam has been improved due to the restart of the early maintenance unit. Prior to tight supply, good spot prices, so caprolactam continued high correction in early January. Caprolactam market is expected to continue weak adjustment trend.

The operating rate of raw material caprolactam rose, the supply was abundant, the market continued to callback, weakening the cost support of PA6. At the end of last month, caprolactam was still at a high level. The cost of PA6 polymerization plant was under pressure, and the price was passively raised. The downstream demand was insufficient, which contradicted the high price supply. As a result, the current inventory level of PA6 was on the high side. Recently, we have entered the stage of stock preparation before the festival, with a heavy wait-and-see atmosphere in the market, and the operation is mainly based on bargain hunting.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe: in early January, domestic PA6 market weakened. The upstream caprolactam supply is sufficient, the price is reduced, and the cost support for PA6 is weakened. Downstream factories are more willing to purchase low-cost goods and are more cautious in purchasing. Near the Spring Festival holiday, PA6 is expected to continue weak operation in the near future.

1、 Price trend of epichlorohydrin

(Figure: p-value curve of epichlorohydrin product)

2、 Market analysis

Epichlorohydrin market is weak this week. As of January 8, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 12333.33 yuan / ton, down 1.33% compared with the beginning of the week and the same as that on December 8, according to the data of the business club’s block list. Recently, the delivery of epichlorohydrin market is not smooth, showing a downward trend as a whole. The middle and lower reaches lack confidence in the future market, have low intention to purchase raw materials, have strong cautious wait-and-see sentiment, demand support is weak, and the atmosphere in the market is light.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of epichlorohydrin of some enterprises is summarized (for reference only, the spot price of the merchants depends on the market, and the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation.)

Upstream propylene, Shandong propylene market had a downward trend on January 8. On January 8, the market price of propylene in Shandong fell. According to the price chart of the business club, the propylene price declined all the way at the end of December, and began to rise on New Year’s day. On the 4th, the price was increased by about 100 yuan / ton. On the 5th and 6th, the price was mainly stable, with only a few enterprises going up. On the 8th, some prices fell. Now, the market transaction is between 7250 yuan / ton and 7500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is still around 7250 yuan / ton. Factory inventory is general, stable delivery.

Downstream epoxy resin, January 8 epoxy resin market range finishing operation. Bisphenol a stopped falling and rebounded, cost support was strengthened, and manufacturers were in a positive mood. However, downstream terminals were cautious in purchasing, with strong wait-and-see sentiment, and the market volume was insufficient.

3、 Future forecast

According to the epichlorohydrin analysts of the business community, at present, the cost support is limited and the market supply is relatively abundant. However, the demand is low and the shipment of the shippers is under pressure. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market may be weak in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the domestic PP market fluctuated and adjusted in the last ten months, and the spot prices of various brands fell slightly. As of January 11, 2021, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders is about 8116.67 yuan / ton, which is 0.41% lower than the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of PP upstream propylene, according to the data from the business community, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price began to pick up after new year’s day, and increased by about 100 yuan / ton on the 4th. On the 5th and 6th, the price was mainly stable, and only a few enterprises went up. On the 8th, some prices fell. Now the market transaction is between 7250 yuan / ton and 7500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is still around 7250 yuan / ton. Factory inventory is general, stable delivery. The weekly decline was 0.16% and the amplitude was 0.41%. The downstream operation rate rose slightly, but the price was bad, and propylene accounted for the majority. Therefore, it is expected that the recent propylene price will be mainly affected by the game between crude oil market and downstream trend.

At present, the propylene market is stable, while PP cost side support is acceptable. January to undertake last December’s PP (wire drawing) market decline trend, the beginning of the market futures spot prices. In the first ten days, the terminal demand was not strong, the procurement operation was biased towards rigid demand, and the trading was relatively weak. There are few large orders in the market, which is bad for PP spot price. In addition, Shijiazhuang closed petrochemical plants and downstream plants due to the epidemic, and logistics was also greatly affected. Many negative effects dragged down the PP market, and the spot price was low.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of January 11, the mainstream offer of Z30S (fiber) by domestic producers and traders had fallen slightly compared with the beginning of the month, with the price of about 8250 yuan / ton, down 0.80% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month. In the early stage, the decline of domestic total inventory slowed down and rebounded around New Year’s day. At present, the number of maintenance units in domestic PP plants is reduced, the operating rate is high, and the supply of goods is sufficient. In addition, after the high opening of futures at the beginning of the month, the demand for fiber PP is expected to continue to decline as the holiday approaches. Expected PP (fiber) prices or will remain stable in a downward trend.

At the beginning of January, the market of PP meltblown material was flat, and the price tended to be stable. As of November 11, the average quotation of pph-y1500 sample enterprises monitored by business society was 10833.33 yuan / ton. Around the new year’s day, the epidemic situation in some areas of China rebounded on a small scale, and the overall situation was generally stable. There was no large-scale increase in the demand for anti epidemic materials such as masks. The situation of oversupply in the melt blown fabric manufacturing market has not been improved, and the profit is seriously diluted. The second outbreak of overseas epidemic is obvious, and many countries have once again announced the implementation of strict City closure. There is still a certain demand for international medical protection products, but the price of overseas materials is stable. The domestic and international melt blown PP price level has entered the platform period, and it is expected that the price trend of melt blown PP will be stable.

Future forecast

Business community PP analysts believe: in early January, the domestic PP spot market fluctuated slightly. The upstream propylene market turned down, but the range was not large, and the support for PP cost side was acceptable. At present, PP wire drawing material and fiber material market is stable and weak, market confidence is insufficient, futures open low, bad spot price. The demand of PP (melt blown) is general, and the price tends to be stable. In terms of fundamentals, the current supply of PP is sufficient, and there is no large-scale demand. It is expected that the market of PP will be weak in the near future.