1、 Price trend

 

According to the data of business club’s block list, aniline continued to rise this week, and the price reached a new high. On March 12, the price of aniline was 12300-12500 yuan / ton in Shandong and 12300-12500 yuan / ton in Nanjing. On March 21, the price of aniline was 14000-15500 yuan / ton in Shandong and 13500 yuan / ton in Nanjing, with an average price increase of 15.9% over last week, 81.43% over the beginning of the year and 139.55% over the same period of last year.

 

2、 Analysis and comment

 

In terms of cost, the current and futures prices of styrene, the main downstream of pure benzene, fell sharply this week, and the profit space was greatly compressed. Pure benzene was driven down by bad news. Crude oil plummeted on Thursday, which was bad for domestic bulk commodity market. Pure benzene, as the downstream of crude oil, was greatly affected by crude oil, and the focus of spot market weakened. This week, pure benzene port inventory continued to fall, in the de inventory channel, inventory pressure is small, limiting its decline. This week, the price of some SINOPEC enterprises in North China was lowered to 6500 yuan / ton, while that in other regions was basically 6650 yuan / ton. On Sunday (March 21), the price of pure benzene ranged from 6003 to 6650 yuan / ton (average price was 6450 yuan / ton), which was 3.3% lower than that of last week and 67.97% higher than that of the same period last year.

 

The price of nitric acid rose at the beginning of this week and then stabilized. On Friday (March 19), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 2050 yuan / ton, up 3.36% from last week, 2.5% from the beginning of this month and 32.26% from the same period last year.

 

The price difference between aniline and pure benzene widened, and the profit margin of aniline was better. The 200000 t / a aniline plant in Dongying, Jinling was shut down for maintenance. The supply of aniline in Shandong was tight, and the price rose in the week. Enterprises in East China are mainly engaged in the preparation of shipping goods, with less spot delivery. In addition, driven by the high price of aniline in Shandong, the price rose within the week.

 

3、 Future expectation

 

In terms of cost, the current downstream styrene market is the main reason restricting the trend of pure benzene. It is expected that the short-term pure benzene will follow the shock finishing of styrene, and there will be a slight decline. However, due to the impending overhaul of several pure benzene units, the low inventory of Sinopec pure benzene and the high price support, the pure benzene market still has a rebound momentum. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market, domestic and foreign pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, the impact of external market trends on the price of pure benzene.

 

The lower reaches have strong resistance to high price aniline. I heard that some downstream factories have parking plans, or the demand for aniline has decreased. But at present, Jinling Dongying aniline plant is still under maintenance, and the spot supply is tight. Overall, it is expected that the high price of aniline will remain strong in the short term. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw material, the follow-up of downstream demand and the dynamic of aniline plant.

Thiourea

The market of ethylene oxide has been stable recently, and the estimated profit is about 310 yuan. The upstream ethylene market is stable, the price of Sinopec is reduced to 8300 yuan / ton, and Luxi Chemical is reduced to 7700 yuan / ton. The price of raw materials is still at a high level, and the cost support is strong at present. The downstream market of ethylene oxide is better than the single market, and the delivery of goods is relatively smooth. At present, due to the influence of the early stage stock market, the transaction volume of the monomer is reduced, and the terminal consumes the stock of raw materials in the early stage, which is more inconsistent with the current monomer price. Therefore, the manufacturer has no intention to adjust the current quotation for the time being. In addition, the terminal operating rate rises slowly, which has an impact on the monomer consumption There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. Ethylene glycol was affected by the weakness of chemical fiber production and marketing, with low volatility and many negative factors in the market. The manufacturer slightly reduced the load of ethylene glycol, but the impact on the fundamentals of ethylene oxide was limited.

 

In terms of units, in order to avoid the commissioning time of satellite petrochemical, Zhenhai Yangzi and Sanjiang units delayed maintenance. Maoming Petrochemical plans to overhaul on the 25th. At present, the epoxy supply side is relatively abundant.

 

Market participants are stable at present, but it is expected that there will be a downward trend in the long term.

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According to business news agency data, on March 18, the average price of silver market in the morning was 5464.33 yuan / kg, up 3.02% in the day, down 0.29% from 5480.33 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (March 1), and down 1.54% from 5550 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the year (01.01).

 

On March 18, the spot price of gold was 367.60 yuan / g, up 0.82% in the day, up 0.55% compared with the average price of 365.60 yuan / g in the early morning of the month (3.1), and down 6.39% compared with the spot price of 392.70 yuan / g in the beginning of the year (01.01).

 

Core inflation expectations rose, precious metal prices rose slightly

 

At 2:00 Beijing time on the 18th, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced that it would keep the target range of the federal funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25%, in line with market expectations. At the same time, the Federal Reserve raised its economic and GDP growth expectations, but it has no intention to reduce QE in the near future. Core inflation expectations rose, and precious metal prices rose slightly.

 

Gold price stops falling and rising

 

The sharp fall of gold in the early stage is mainly due to the high yield of us long-term treasury bonds, the continuous rise of US stock market, the positive trend of international commodities, and the weakening of speculative enthusiasm of precious metal market. Recently, the price of precious metal gold began to stop falling, stabilize and recover slightly. On the one hand, due to the booming domestic precious metal consumer market, the price of gold doubled and the sharp increase of consumer demand in other places during the Chinese New Year. On the other hand, in the long run, the real interest rate will remain low, the central banks of developed economies will continue to buy government debt, the industrial demand will increase, and the consumer demand for jewelry and gold and silver ware will also increase.

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According to the monitoring data of business society, as of March 17, the average price reference of the market quotation of silicone DMC in the mainstream area of data monitoring is 28833 yuan / ton, and the average price increases 5167 yuan / T, or 21.83% compared with the price of March 1, 2021 (reference price is 23666 yuan / ton); compared with the price before the Spring Festival (reference price of 21533 yuan / ton on February 11, 2021), the average price increases by 7300 yuan / ton, and the total price increases after the saving The results showed that the rate of the treatment was 33.90%.

 

After the Spring Festival, the domestic silicone DMC market has increased greatly, the upstream and downstream transmission is smooth, and the market transaction atmosphere is good. By the end of February, the factory price of silicone DMC was increased four times after the festival. According to the monitoring of business agency data, the average price after the Festival increased by 1100 yuan / ton in total, and the high-end offer price of silicone DMC in a large factory in Shandong Province rose to 23500 yuan / T, and the last 4 times of the plant were saved The price was increased for the next time, and the total increase was 1700 yuan / ton.

 

Silicone DMC made high-end offer of 8 price adjustment in March, exceeding 30000 yuan / ton

 

In March, the trend of silicone DMC continued to be strong, the market was “in a state of the art”, and the downstream silica gel and other products showed good export performance. The demand for silicone DMC raw materials continued to increase, and the market of silicone also rose continuously with the rise of the price of silicone DMC, which formed a strong situation of mutual support. Most of the DMC factories began to seal the offer without report, limited receipt, on-site spot tension, a single is difficult to ask. As of March 17, in more than half a month, the market of silicone DMC has increased the factory price of DMC for 8 times, with a total increase of more than 5000 yuan / ton. On June 16, Shandong Luxi increased the factory quotation of organosilicon DMC to 30200 yuan / ton again, which also created the maximum daily increase of 1100 yuan / ton for silicone DMC in recent half month. Thus, the high-end offer price of silicone DMC exceeded 30000 yuan / T, and the average price reference of silicone DMC was 28833 yuan / T, which was up 5167 yuan / T, or 21.83% compared with that in early March. At present, most other factories do not report the offer, which has been mainly discussed in practice, the factory has compact list and many pre-processing orders.

 

Since the festival, the domestic market price of silicone DMC has increased 13 times, with the price rising by more than 7300 yuan / ton, and the total increase after the festival is nearly 34%.

 

According to the business agency, the following is the DMC price and the start-up of the device of some domestic silicone enterprises (for reference only)

 

Enterprise name: total capacity of organosilicon, operation of unit, price note

Tax content of purified water of 80thousand tons / year 30200 yuan / ton unit of Luxi Chemical Industry

Inner Mongolia Hengye Cheng 240000 / T sealed plate without reporting the normal operation of the unit net water tax

340000 / T sealed plate of Zhejiang Xin’an chemical industry without reporting the normal operation of the unit net water tax

Hesheng silicon industry 35.58 million tons / year reference 29700-30000 yuan / ton unit stable operation market price

7 floors of the unit of 320000 tons / year of Hubei Xingfa without offer—

Zhejiang Zhongtian 120000 tons / year is temporarily not offered in the parking of the device—

Shandong Jinling 150000 T / a unit is not offered for offer for the time being, and the device is running smoothly—

Downstream, the downstream 107 rubber and raw rubber products of silicone DMC are also rising under the drive of raw materials. At present, the market price of domestic new material 107 rubber has risen to 29000-29800 yuan / T, and the high-end offer of raw rubber has exceeded 30500 yuan / T, and currently, many factories have closed the offer.

 

2021 capacity of silicone industrial chain increases, and downstream export of DMC increases continuously

 

1. Tangshan Sanyou annual output 1200 tons hydrogen containing silicone oil project will be put into operation

 

Tangshan Sanyou annual output 1200 tons “430#######ාාා#ාාා#ාා෗#ා. “430″ hydrogen containing silicone oil expansion unit installation project “is to rebuild and install a new set of equipment on the basis of the original three sets. The main equipment includes reaction kettle, polymerization tank, etc., as well as supporting process pipeline, electrical and other facilities. After the festival, the equipment department shall contact the workshop and construction unit, and take the defensive measures during the epidemic period into the construction state quickly to ensure the construction stability.

 

The project makes the best use of hydrogen in the monomer by-product, which can increase economic benefits, but also creates certain social benefits. Compared with the first and second production lines, the new production line has high automation, high output and good quality. It also plays a good role in increasing employment position, adjusting the downstream product structure of the company, extending the industrial chain and improving the competitiveness of enterprises in the market.

 

2. The silicone project of Shihezi base of Hesheng silicon industry in Zhejiang Province will be put into operation

 

Hesheng silicon industry has an annual total industrial silicon capacity of 730000 tons. After the successful completion of the silicon project in Shihezi base in 2021, the total capacity of silicone monomer will reach 930000 tons. At present, the utilization rate of industrial silicon capacity of the company is about 90%! In addition, Hesheng silicon industry is planning 800000 tons of silicone and 800000 tons of industrial silicon projects in Zhaotong, Yunnan Province. The first phase of 400000 tons of silicone production capacity is expected to be put into operation in mid-2022. Yunnan has abundant resources. Although Yunnan has high electricity price, it has low ore transportation cost, and the finished products are exported to Southeast and southwest demand areas, and the products are closer to the terminal. In the future, Hesheng silicon industry will be more prominent in the leading position in the industry.

 

2021 the downstream export of silicone DMC is increasing

 

In the first two months of 2021, China’s import and export value was 5.44 trillion yuan, an increase of 32.2% over the same period last year (the same below). The total value of February was 2.42 trillion yuan, up 57%. Among them, thousands of export-oriented silicon manufacturing enterprises also kept growing orders.

 

Double impact of capacity and opportunity: silicone DMC is expected to return to its peak in 2021

 

At present, the silicone DMC market is reluctant to sell, the factory has low spot inventory, the sealing disk appears more common, more orders are arranged, and the weather is warming gradually, and the demand of downstream products is increasing. Therefore, the data analysts of silicone DMC data of the business agency believe that the trend of silicone DMC market will continue to rise in the short term, and it is expected to “return to the peak time”. The specific market also needs to pay more attention to the changes of raw material end and demand end.

Thiourea

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide

 

(Figure: p-value curve of lithium hydroxide product)

 

2、 Market analysis

 

As of March 14, the average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises was 68000 yuan / ton, up 2% compared with the beginning of the week, 18.60% compared with February 14, and 30.77% year-on-year in a three-month cycle, according to the data from the business club’s block list.

 

The market of industrial lithium hydroxide rose this week. Spot market is relatively tight, downstream enterprises actively inquire, low price shipping intention is not strong, price center of gravity moves up.

 

Output data of lithium hydroxide: in February 2021, the output of lithium hydroxide of major manufacturers in China was 11300 tons, up 2.73% on a month on month basis and 253.13% on a year-on-year basis.

 

Upstream lithium carbonate, the market price of lithium carbonate in East China rose slightly this week. According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of March 12, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 84600 yuan / ton, which was 1.20% higher than that at the beginning of the week (March 8, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 83600 yuan / ton). On March 12, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 89400 yuan / ton, which increased by 0.90% compared with the average price of 88600 yuan / ton in East China at the beginning of March.

 

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in the 10th week of 2021 (3.8-3.12), there were 49 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector that rose month on month, among which 9 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 9.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities were chloroform (18.73%), calcium carbide (12.07%) and aniline (9.12%). There were 15 kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products with a decline were ethylene glycol (- 7.49%), styrene (- 4.85%) and ox (- 4.62%). The average rise and fall this week was 1.2%.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Analysts of lithium hydroxide from business news agency believe that the recent cost support is strong, and the market is very strong under the tight spot supply. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market may rise steadily, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the market information guidance.

Thiourea