This week (12.28-31), the domestic polysilicon market stabilized, and the price rebounded from the bottom. The domestic market and imported material prices rebounded to varying degrees. According to the monitoring of the business society, polysilicon rose or fell by 0.26% this week. The main reason is that as the operating rate of the enterprise maintains at the early stage, there is another polysilicon manufacturer for device maintenance, and the supply pressure is not big, but the market demand is slightly enlarged by the impact of centralized procurement before the festival.

 

After entering December, polysilicon has shown signs of bottoming out, and the market atmosphere is more positive in the middle and late ten days. The prices of both domestic manufacturers and imported goods are on the rise. Although the range is not large, affected by the recovery of single crystal, the whole silicon industry has a little positive market at the end of the year.

 

On the supply side, the operating rate of domestic polysilicon manufacturers remains at a medium to high level. Up to now, about 11 domestic polysilicon manufacturers have maintained 2 maintenance or load reduction operations. It is expected that production may resume in the near future, and the market supply is relatively stable. However, the current high operating rate has not led to stock accumulation behavior, and the inventory of most enterprises has no obvious upward trend, which is still acceptable Control, which is mainly due to the recent downstream manufacturers are also accelerating the process of digestion.

 

In the middle and late part of this year, the purchase volume of silicon wafer manufacturers increased significantly compared with that in November, and the situation of enterprise signing continued. Most enterprises signed orders in December, and a few large manufacturers began to sign new orders in January next year. This mainly depends on the stability of current demand. Downstream silicon wafer manufacturers, especially monocrystalline silicon wafer, are in short supply. Therefore, the market gradually inclines to polycrystalline silicon wafer, which drives the demand for some polycrystalline silicon materials. According to the monitoring of the business association, the current mainstream transaction price of polysilicon with grade I solar material in China is 53000-55000 yuan / ton, and the tax inclusive price of polysilicon in non China is 65000-66000 yuan / ton.

 

In the near future, polysilicon will mainly maintain the balance between supply and demand. In the near future, the operating rate of enterprises is expected to maintain a high level. However, affected by the pre Festival purchasing volume of downstream silicon wafers, polysilicon may maintain the pattern of prosperous supply and demand. It is expected that the price of polysilicon will rise before the lunar new year.

 

Note: the above price includes tax

Thiourea

The sulfur commodity index on December 31 was 55.60, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.46% from 103.84 (2011-11-02), the highest point in the cycle, and up 115.59% from 25.79, the lowest point on February 24, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

 

According to the price monitoring of the business association, the average price of sulfur production in East China is 1013.33 yuan / ton. Refineries in various regions in China quote prices according to their own shipment situation. Sulfur quotations in North China and Shandong are temporarily stable, and the sulfur market is strong. With the concentration of port cargo rights, refineries in various regions of China maintain low inventory operation, the attitude of cargo holders is better, the low price in the market is hard to find, and the buyer and the seller mainly wait and see. Sinopec’s mainstream price of solid sulfur in North China is 910-920 yuan / ton; Sinopec’s mainstream price of solid sulfur in East China is 970-1280 yuan / ton; Sinopec’s mainstream price of solid sulfur in Shandong is 1020-1050 yuan / ton.

 

In terms of sulphuric acid, domestic market differentiation operation, Shandong sulphuric acid enterprises started smoothly, enterprise inventory remained low, downstream demand was good, market purchase was active, market transaction atmosphere was good, and future market was weak and stable. The market demand for phosphate fertilizer is stable, the price trend of Monoammonium and diammonium is dominant, the winter storage market is in progress, the inquiry in the market is positive, the orders are sufficient, and the market continues to improve.

 

Future forecast: at present, the price of domestic sulfur market is strong, the domestic sulfur inventory is low, the quotation of sulfur enterprises is stable as a whole, the shipment is smooth, the new year’s Day holiday is approaching, the market talks are mostly wait-and-see, and the short-term sulfur market is expected to be stable.

Thiourea

Trend analysis

 

According to the data monitoring of business community, the rising trend of cobalt Market at the end of 2019 could not be continued in 2020. Affected by the epidemic situation, the cobalt Market in 2020 was relatively cold, far lower than the market expectation. As of December 30, cobalt price was 272666.66 yuan / ton, up 2.31% from 266500.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (January 1). Although the price of cobalt will rise slightly in 2020, compared with the expected price of cobalt, the market of cobalt in 2020 will be rather cold. In the overall cold market of cobalt, several different voices will become the “rising voice” in the trend of cobalt price in 2020.

 

New energy vehicle market

 
According to the statistics of China Automobile Association, from January to November 2020, the production of new energy vehicles completed 1.119 million, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, and the sales completed 1.109 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%. In the post subsidy era, the production of new energy vehicles will decrease slightly in 2020, and the sales will increase year on year, providing sufficient support for the demand of cobalt market. The production and sales of new energy vehicles rose sharply, the demand for cobalt market rose significantly, and the positive market of cobalt market increased greatly.

 

According to the data reported by the media, the cumulative sales volume from January to November in Europe is expected to be 1.1 million, and it is expected to reach 1.25 million this year, with a year-on-year growth of over 120%. The European Union’s 2030 climate target plan raises the 2030 greenhouse gas emission reduction target from 40% to 60%. Countries have introduced various subsidy policies and the target time of banning fuel vehicles has been advanced. In addition, the quantity and promotion of new models in Europe, a series of measures have led to a sharp rise in the sales of electric vehicles in Europe. The epidemic has limited impact on the European new energy vehicle market. Sales of new energy vehicles in Europe have increased greatly, and the demand for cobalt market has risen sharply, which is favorable for cobalt market.

 

Domestic mobile phone production and sales data

 
According to the statistics of China Academy of information technology, the total shipment volume of domestic mobile phone market in November was 29.584 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 15.1%. In November, the domestic mobile phone sales declined year-on-year, but the decline contracted, and the month on month rise sharply. The demand of cobalt market slowly recovered, which is good for the cobalt market. However, due to the overall decline of mobile phone sales, the demand for cobalt in the mobile phone market generally declined, and the rising power of cobalt market is limited.

 

According to IDC’s 2020 shipment data of global smart phone market, in the first quarter of 2020, the global smart phone shipment decreased by 11.7% year-on-year, 16.0% in the second quarter, still in a declining state in the third quarter, 1.3% year-on-year, and the overall sales volume of global smart phone market is expected to decline by 2.3%. In the third quarter, global smartphone shipments totaled 353.6 million units, down 1.3% year-on-year, but the results were stronger than IDC’s previous forecast of – 9%. The epidemic situation began to improve, and some mobile phone markets around the world have a trend of recovery. The recovery of mobile phone market is obviously good for the demand of cobalt Market in the future, and the rising power of cobalt Market in the future is greater.

 

According to the data released by IDC, in the third quarter of 2020, the global Tablet PC shipment increased by 24.9% year-on-year to 47.6 million units; in the third quarter of 2020, the global wearable device shipment reached 125 million units, a year-on-year increase of 35%. In 2020, the global smartphone shipment will decline, but the relative Tablet PC and wearable device shipment will increase greatly. Overall, in terms of 3C products and intelligent devices, there is a large space for global demand to rise in the future, the demand for cobalt market is expected to rise, and the demand for cobalt Market in the future is more dynamic.

 

According to hardware industry executives and analysts, global sales of laptops and desktops in 2020 are at the highest level since the launch of the iPhone in 2007, and PC shipments are expected to reach about 300 million units in 2020, an increase of about 15% over the previous year, Reuters reported. The increase of computer sales has brought a positive effect on the demand of cobalt market. Although this positive supporting time remains to be investigated, the overall demand of cobalt market has a certain support.

 

Import of cobalt raw materials

 

The import volume of cobalt raw materials (10000 tons of metal tons) rose or fell by% in the current month, and the cumulative import volume of cobalt raw materials (10000 tons of metal tons) rose or fell by%

January to February 2020: 0.5-34-1.2-24

March 2020 0.89 43 2 31

April 2020: 0.82 70 2.87 42

May 2020 0.37 – 55 3.24 14

June 2020: 0.44-42.68.3

July 2020: 0.84 10 4.52 4

August 2020: 0.93 3 5.45 4

September 2020: 0.67 – 32 6.12 – 2

October 2020: 1.07 15 7.19 0

November 2020 0.9 9 8.09 1

According to the statistics of China Customs, China’s import of cobalt raw materials totaled 80900 tons of metal tons from January to November 2020, an increase of 1% year on year. Although affected by the epidemic, African ports were closed in April, and China’s Cobalt raw material imports decreased significantly, the overall impact of China’s Cobalt raw material imports was small, and the annual import volume increased slightly. The increase of cobalt raw material import is bad for the domestic cobalt market, which has certain downward pressure.

 

According to South African media reports, South African President ramafosa announced in a televised speech last night that South Africa will re-enter the level 3 blockade from 0:00 on December 29, and will not decide whether to update the epidemic prevention measures until January 15. The port of Mozambique Bela was temporarily closed due to typhoon. South Africa’s re blockade and port stoppage have a certain impact on the import of cobalt raw materials. Domestic cobalt raw material imports may decrease in a short term, and the cobalt market has a greater upward momentum.

 

Market Overview

 

Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of business news agency, believes that the global cobalt market will be mainly cold in 2020 due to the impact of the first epidemic. Although there are various policy supports, the overall demand of cobalt market is still slightly insufficient. But after a bleak, we found that there are still “Rising Voices” in the cobalt market. It is these “Rising Voices” that support the rebound of cobalt price in 2020, and also bring hope for the future rise of cobalt market. In 2020, the sharp drop of mobile phone sales will lead to the decline of cobalt market demand, and the increase of new energy vehicle sales will not meet the expectation, which are the main reasons for the difficult rise of cobalt price in 2020. The rising sales of 3C products such as computers and wearable products have brought new growth points to the demand of cobalt market. The outbreak of new energy vehicle market in Europe also supports the market of cobalt from plummeting. Finally, due to the impact of the epidemic, the international freight cost increases, which has a greater impact on China’s Cobalt market, which is heavily dependent on imports. The increase of cobalt cost has a certain support for the rise of cobalt price. In the future, the impact of the epidemic is gradually weakening, and the global market is slowly warming up. Stimulated by 5g mobile phones, the sales of mobile phones may usher in new growth in 2021, and the growth of new energy vehicles is irresistible. In the demand of cobalt Market in 2021, new energy vehicles will be the main force driving the rise of cobalt price. It is generally expected that the demand of cobalt Market in the future will still have a big outbreak point, and there is room for the rise of cobalt price in 2021 The price of cobalt is expected to hit the peak of 400000 yuan in 2021.

Thiourea

According to statistics, in 2020, the price trend of domestic rare earth market will increase mainly. The price of neodymium Series in domestic light rare earth market will increase greatly, neodymium oxide and metal neodymium will increase by about 70%, while the price of heavy rare earth market will increase slightly, but the price of terbium series will rise to a 10-year high. The price trend of some domestic rare earth products in 2020 is as follows:

 

At the beginning of the year, the price of neodymium oxide in the domestic market rose by 286.75 yuan / ton, and the price of neodymium oxide in the end of 2000 was 286.065 yuan / ton, The market price at the end of the year was 410000 yuan / ton, with an annual increase of 44.37%; the price of praseodymium neodymium alloy at the beginning of the year was 362000 yuan / ton, with an annual increase of 40.88%; the price of praseodymium oxide at the beginning of the year was 342500 yuan / ton, with an annual increase of 2.92%; the price of praseodymium metal at the beginning of the year was 650000 yuan / ton, with an annual increase of 575000 yuan / ton, with an annual increase of 2.92% In 2020, the contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic rare earth market will be sharp, and the price trend of light rare earth market will rise by a large margin.

 

According to statistics, the domestic market price of dysprosium oxide at the beginning of the year is 1750000 yuan / ton, and the market price at the end of the year is 1930000 yuan / ton, with an annual increase of 10.29%; the price of dysprosium metal at the beginning of the year is 2125000 yuan / ton, and the market price at the end of the year is 2425000 yuan / ton, with an annual increase of 14.12%; the price of dysprosium ferroalloy at the beginning of the year is 1720000 yuan / ton, and the market price at the end of the year is 1920000 yuan / ton The annual increase was 11.63%, and the domestic heavy rare earth market prices increased to varying degrees.

 

It can be seen from the rare earth industry index chart that the price trend of domestic rare earth market can be roughly divided into three stages: the first stage is from the beginning of the year to the end of August, and the price trend of domestic rare earth market is in the stage of shock rising; the second stage is from September to the end of October, and the domestic rare earth market price is in the stage of soaring; the third stage is from the beginning of November to the end of the year.

 

In the first stage, the price of domestic rare earth market fluctuated and rose. During this period, affected by domestic and international public health events, the supply of rare earth decreased and the imbalance between supply and demand led to the price rise of domestic rare earth market. In the domestic rare earth purchase and storage plan, medium and heavy rare earth accounts for a large proportion of the annual output, which is expected to have a greater impact on the supply and demand and price of medium and heavy rare earth. Considering that the current closure of Myanmar customs still has a tight impact on the domestic import and supply of medium and heavy rare earth, once the purchase and storage plan is implemented as scheduled, it will have a greater impact on the tight supply and demand and price rise of heavy rare earth dysprosium and terbium. Recently, the market in the market is general, and the price of heavy rare earth remains at a high level; in addition, with the resumption of work and production, the market of terminal new energy vehicles is picking up, the domestic supply of terbium rare earth is very tight, and the domestic price of terbium rare earth is rising. In terms of domestic light rare earths, driven by the positive promotion of new infrastructure projects all over the country, the price of rare earths continued to rise. The bullish attitude of on-site goods holders was obvious, and the merchants were reluctant to sell. The on-site rising sentiment was strong. In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic, the import volume of overseas rare earth minerals declined significantly, and the waste recycling and monazite raw materials decreased, resulting in the decline of domestic rare earth smelting output, The recovery of domestic economy led to the recovery of downstream demand of rare earth, which supported the price of rare earth. The price of domestic light rare earth market continued to rise, and the price of domestic rare earth market gradually recovered and rose.

 

The second stage is from September to the end of October, when the price of domestic rare earth market rises and falls. At this stage, the price of PR nd Series in domestic light rare earths continued to fall. At present, the purchase in the industry has come to an end. In the early stage, the downstream stock preparation is more active, and some manufacturers are hoarding more goods. Recently, the purchasing sentiment has fallen down. In addition, under the influence of the sentiment of buying up but not buying down, the price of PR nd Series in domestic light rare earths continued to fall. On the other hand, the market supply of PR nd rare earths in China is normal recently. In addition to the decline of downstream inquiries, the major manufacturers of light rare earths have sold off. The downstream feel the market mood change, the trading situation is declining, and the floor price is falling. The supply of light rare earth is normal, and the recent purchase is not active, so the market price is under pressure. During this period, the price of dysprosium series heavy rare earths in China also dropped correspondingly. Although the proportion of medium and heavy rare earths in the annual output in the domestic rare earth acquisition and storage plan is relatively large, it is expected to have a great impact on the supply and demand and price of medium and heavy rare earths. In addition, the current closure of Myanmar customs still has a tightening impact on the domestic import and supply of medium and heavy rare earths, but the situation of acquisition and storage is uncertain, the market demand is not improved, and the price is gradually increasing However, due to the tight supply, the price of terbium series has been at a high level. However, the domestic rare earth downstream procurement is not active, and the on-site inventory is high, which leads to the price drop of domestic rare earth market.

 

The third stage is from the beginning of November to the end of November, when the price of domestic rare earth market rises sharply. With the rapid development of wind power, electronic products and other terminal industries, as the epidemic slows down, the capacity utilization rate of downstream manufacturers continues, the demand may continue to pick up, and the demand for NdFeB continues to increase. However, the domestic supply side is still in a contraction situation, and the supply and demand are seriously unbalanced, resulting in the crazy price rise of domestic NdFeB Market. Recently, the demand of permanent magnet manufacturers is relatively positive. Due to the increase of overseas demand, with the “export control law of the people’s Republic of China” officially coming into effect on December 1, the market expects that China’s rare earth export may be further reduced, and the global supply of rare earth may be further reduced. At that time, the supply of rare earth will be more tense, which will further promote the domestic market price. Compared with the market price of neodymium series, the domestic heavy rare earth market price also has a corresponding rise. Dysprosium and terbium series market is still a model of heavy rare earth market. Under the new situation, the strategic value of rare earth is expected to continue to improve. The United States, Japan and Europe and the United States have made corresponding plans to include rare earth into the national strategic resource reserve plan. The advantages of rare earth strategic resources are prominent. China is a large rare earth reserve country, with rare earth reserves accounting for 37% of the world. At the same time, China is also a large rare earth exporter. The country has made corresponding adjustments to the development of rare earth industry, and the rare earth industry is heading for high quality The domestic rare earth market price trend is strong.

 

The Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources jointly issued a notice to issue the total control index of rare earth mining, smelting separation and tungsten mining in 2020. The Ministry of industry and information technology of China announced that the total amount of rare earth mining, smelting separation in 2020 will be 140000 tons and 130000 tons respectively, while the quota of rare earth mining in 2019 will be 132000 tons, an increase of 8000 tons, and 2020 is the highest year since 2014. In addition, the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the notice on the docking and implementation of preferential policies for rare earth industry, saying that the rare earth office entrusted China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and China Rare Earth Industry Association to sort out and summarize the policy documents suitable for rare earth enterprise declaration, forming the collection of supporting policies related to the resumption of rare earth industry. With favorable policies to support the development of rare earth industry and tense Sino US relations, the key products of rare earth trade between China and the United States are of great significance.

 

In 2020, the price trend of domestic rare earth market has increased in varying degrees. The price of domestic light rare earth market has increased greatly, and the heavy rare earth market has been at a high level. The price of terbium series has risen to a 10-year high. In addition, the country’s rectification of the rare earth industry is becoming more and more serious. In 2020, the amount of rare earth mining has also increased, and the development of new energy vehicles is faster and faster. At the same time, on December 1, the export control law of the people’s Republic of China officially came into effect. The market expects that China’s rare earth exports may be further reduced, and the global supply of rare earth may be further contracted. At that time, the supply of rare earth will be more tense, forming a certain positive support for the domestic rare earth market. Chen Ling, rare earth analyst of business society, predicts that the development of rare earth industry will continue to improve in 2021. The domestic heavy rare earth market price may maintain a high level, while the domestic light rare earth market is at a high level. The price may maintain a high level in 2021, and there is no lack of the possibility of a small rise.

Thiourea

This week, the international crude oil price rebounded, the gasoline market fell slightly, the domestic demand for MTBE and other intermediate materials weakened, and the MTBE market price fell. According to the data of business news agency, the price of MTBE on December 25 was 4150 yuan / ton, down 1.19% compared with the price at the beginning of the week.

 

The international crude oil price recovered this week, with WTI crude oil price down 2.05% and Brent crude oil price down 1.76%. The recent cold weather, coupled with the advent of new year’s Day holiday, increased demand for car travel, and after the domestic oil product price adjustment “three consecutive rises”, the demand for terminal oil products increased. However, it was reported that the mutation virus was found in the UK, the international crude oil price rebounded, the domestic terminal oil market demand cooled, and the market price fell slightly. The gasoline delivery of refineries weakened, the purchasing intention of raw materials decreased significantly under the guidance of the bearish sentiment of refineries, and the price reduction and promotion actions were often taken by MTBE manufacturers when the delivery was not smooth. On the whole, the downward trend of crude oil and gasoline prices slowed down the domestic MTBE market procurement demand, resulting in the price reduction and promotion of MTBE manufacturers.

 

According to the MTBE product analyst of business society energy branch, although the crude oil and gasoline prices are facing the risk of continuous decline, the recent cold weather and holiday are approaching, the demand for goods preparation and replenishment in the gasoline terminal market is still there, and the demand for intermediate materials such as MTBE is still there. It is expected that the domestic MTBE price will fall slightly in the short term.

Thiourea