According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of the 14th, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market was 6433.33 yuan / ton, which was 267 yuan / ton, or 4.32%, compared with the price on October 1. Compared with the price on September 1, the average price was increased by 217 yuan / ton, or 3.49%; the maximum amplitude between September 1 and October 14 was 13.20%.

 

Demand for butanone in September is not optimistic

 

The traditional “Jinjiu” did not bring a substantial upward trend to China’s butanone market. Up in September, affected by the cold demand of downstream, the market showed signs of fatigue, and the digestion of inventory was slow. Factories lowered the ex factory price of butanone one one after another, by 400-500 yuan / ton in half a month. As of the 17th, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone Market was 5700 / T, which was 533 yuan / T, or 8.58% lower than that on September 1. Subsequently, the butanone market remained sluggish, and the price was still at the bottom. Until the end of the month, due to the support of the downstream pre holiday stock and hoarding, the demand increased, the upstream and downstream transmission improved, and the factory looked forward to rising strongly. As of September 30, the average price of domestic butanone market was at 6166 yuan / ton, which was reduced by 50 yuan / ton or 0.80% compared with the price on September 1.

 

After the festival, the market of butanone finally rose

 

In October, a few days after the return of the double festival, the market situation is mainly stable. The purchasing status before the festival is better than expected. The current market inventory is relatively low. It is heard that a 30000 T / a production line of Lanzhou Petrochemical Company has been shut down recently, and the factories and shippers have a strong attitude of supporting prices. Since December 12, most factories began to increase the ex factory price of butanone by 200-300 yuan / ton. As of the 14th, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market was 6433.33 yuan / ton, which was 267 yuan / ton, or 4.32%, compared with the price on October 1. Compared with the price on September 1, the average price of butanone increased by 217 yuan / ton, or 3.49%; and the maximum amplitude from September 1 to October 14 was 13.20%.

 

On the upstream side, the domestic LPG market in Shandong Province declined in September. In October, the price of LPG civil market rebounded. After the festival, the downstream started the replenishment mode, the enthusiasm of entering the market was good, the manufacturers’ shipment was smooth, and the inventory was mostly at a low level. Since the 9th, the Shandong market of civil gas-liquid chemical gas has risen continuously. As of the 13th, the reference price of liquefied gas was 3126.67 yuan / ton, an average price increase of 350 yuan / ton or 12.61% compared with October 1 (2776.67 yuan / ton). At present, the market is stable on the whole, and some small increases are made. The current mainstream transaction price is maintained at about 3100-3130 yuan / ton, and the market transaction atmosphere is relatively general.

 

Future outlook in the short term, the market is strong

 

The overall market is favorable for any inventory. At present, the on-site inventory is on the low side. The recovery of factory start-up after the festival is lower than expected, and the downstream just needs to purchase. Therefore, it is expected that the manufacturers and traders will be more willing to support the price, and the short-term price is mainly to maintain the stability of the price.

Thiourea

Trade name: ammonium chloride

 

Latest price (October 12): 622.50 yuan / ton

 

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Key points of analysis: the market of ammonium chloride is stable. According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of dry ammonium chloride in China was 622.50 yuan / ton on the 12th, which was the same as the price of the previous day. The start-up of manufacturers continues to maintain a high level, and the inventory of ammonium chloride is still under pressure. According to the business association, the overall operating rate of combined caustic soda is over 70%. In terms of demand, except for the initial start of winter storage in Northeast China, the demand in other regions is still weak. According to the business agency, the overall industry operating rate of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises is about 50%. The ex factory price of ammonium chloride is basically stable. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of superior products of agricultural ammonium chloride for Zhonghai Huabang in Jiangsu Province is stable on October 12, 2020, and the price of dry ammonium chloride is 650 yuan / ton; the price of wet ammonium chloride is 550 yuan / ton; on September 30, 2020, the 600000 tons / year ammonium chloride plant of China Salt Kunshan is in normal operation, and it is almost full load.

 

After market forecast, ammonium chloride market is expected to rise tentatively in the short term.

1、 Price trend

 

According to the business agency data monitoring: in September, domestic LNG rose by 9.28%, and then rose after the festival. On October 9, the average price was 2706.67 yuan / ton, up 2.92% compared with that before the festival, 12.47% higher than that at the beginning of September, 14.85% on a month on month basis, and 7.31% lower than the same period last year.

 

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

 

Since the second half of the month, due to the relatively stable market situation, the shipment situation of some liquid plants has improved, and the demand has gradually increased. Moreover, after the continuous price reduction in the early stage, the inventory pressure is not great, the shipment situation has been improved, and the bad factors in the off-season demand are added Gradually turned light, the market trading improved, the market continued to rise, near the end of the month is climbing. With the decrease of temperature, the demand for urban fuel and vehicle is better, and some manufacturers have no pressure on inventory and have a good confidence in price.

 

During the holiday, traffic was blocked and LNG shipment was not smooth. After the holiday, the road transportation was restored and the downstream began to actively replenish. The terminal demand increased. In addition, the weather turned cool. The northern cities gradually entered the heating period in winter, which supported the upward trend of LNG price and the active adjustment of liquid price in many places. Moreover, due to the increase of feed gas price, the liquid plant was optimistic and the market gradually changed from The off-season turned into the peak season.

 

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of October 9, the average price in Inner Mongolia is around 2750 yuan / ton, and the price is rising; in Shaanxi, the average price is around 2720 yuan / ton, the price is rising; in Shanxi, the average price is around 2770 yuan / ton, the price is rising; in Xinjiang, the average price is around 3120 yuan / ton, the price is rising; in Ningxia, the average price is around 2740 yuan / ton, the price is rising, and the average price in Sichuan is 2660 yuan In the vicinity of yuan / ton, the price is temporarily stable; the price of liquid in many places is gradually rising.

 

Enterprise capacity rose and fell from October 9 to September 1

Inner Mongolia Shitai: 550000 cubic meters / day: 2650 yuan / ton: 2350 yuan / ton: 300 yuan

Star Energy: 1 million cubic meters / day 2770 yuan / ton 2450 yuan / ton 320 yuan

Inner Mongolia Sentai 1.2 million cubic meters / day 2650 yuan / ton 2380 yuan / ton 270 yuan

Zhongyuan green energy 3 million cubic meters / day 2700 yuan / ton 2400 yuan / ton 300 yuan

Shengdazi Prefecture: 1 million cubic meters / day 2810 yuan / ton 2470 yuan / ton 340 yuan / ton

Dazhou Huixin: 1 million cubic meters / day: 2580 yuan / ton: 2950 yuan / ton – 370

Ningxia Hongxing 1 million cubic meters / day 2780 yuan / ton 2360 yuan / ton 420 yuan

Qinshui Xinao — 2700 yuan / ton 2600 yuan / ton 100 yuan

Naomao Lake in Xinjiang (east of Lanzhou) 1.5 million cubic meters / day 2500 yuan / ton 1600 yuan / ton 900 yuan

Xinjiang Qinghua: 300000 cubic meters / day 4000 yuan / ton 3000 yuan / ton 1000 yuan

Downstream products also increased to varying degrees:

 

Downstream methanol, Shandong methanol market negotiation price of 1680-1690 yuan / ton, delivered to spot exchange, the transaction was general. The quotation of methanol market in southern Shandong is temporarily stable at around 1800 yuan / t spot exchange. Linyi receives the local price of 1790-1800 yuan / ton and delivers it without tax. The logistics goods are offered at 1730-1750 yuan / ton. On the first day after the festival, futures rose, but most of the downstream watched and the market remained stable temporarily.

 

Liquid ammonia: in recent years, the domestic liquid ammonia market still maintains the range consolidation. It is not ruled out that the trend of various regions or some differentiation after the festival is not ruled out. The market is mainly affected by large plants. In the later stage, there may still be maintenance of units in Shandong. After the festival, the market may need to consume part of the pre holiday stock, and the price may be impacted to a certain extent. In the late autumn, the demand for ammonia in the downstream is expected to be weak and the demand for ammonia may be weak in the late autumn.

 

Urea and upstream liquid ammonia have been consolidated at a high level recently, with good cost support. Domestic demand is fair, agricultural demand in some areas has followed up, and industrial demand follows the market and purchases on demand. In terms of supply, some devices were overhauled and some of them were in short supply. 9 daily offer: 1660-1700 yuan / ton

 

The market price of dichloromethane and methane chloride in Shandong Province is rising. The mainstream quotation of dichloromethane market is 2650 yuan / ton, and that of chloroform market is about 1850 yuan / ton. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term. At present, the upstream liquid chlorine market is at a high level, and the price of methane chloride is well supported; the overall purchasing demand of downstream market is poor and the support is insufficient.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

LNG analysts from the business club believe that: after the holiday, road transportation is restored to be unobstructed, and the downstream starts to actively replenish goods, and the terminal demand has increased. In addition, the weather turns cool, northern cities gradually enter the winter heating period, which supports the upward trend of LNG prices. It is expected that the domestic LNG prices will rise steadily.

Thiourea

Product Name: cryolite

 

Latest price (September 30): 5666.67 yuan / ton

 

Commodity analysis: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the price trend of cryolite market is stable. The average price of cryolite in Henan is 5666.67 yuan / ton, which is the same as yesterday’s price. At present, the equipment of the enterprise is under normal operation. Zhengzhou Tianrui Grain Technology Co., Ltd. has started about 70% of the total. Jiaozuo Minli industry and Shandong Botao are both full-scale production. The manufacturers have sufficient inventory and the downstream demand is general. They mainly sell according to the order and hold a wait-and-see attitude towards the market.

 

On the upstream side, the price of fluorite remained stable, with an average price of 2666.67 yuan / ton in the domestic market. The domestic fluorite manufacturers operated normally and the sales situation was general. In the near future, the supply of fluorite in the market was slightly tight, and the fluorite price might rise slightly in the later stage.

 

After market forecast: the supply of cryolite is sufficient, and the downstream demand is slightly flat. It is expected that the cryolite market will be weak and stable in the later stage, and the market demand should be paid more attention to.

Thiourea

Trade name: br 9000

 

Latest price (September 29): 8900 yuan / ton

 

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of BR 9000 in China was 8900 yuan / ton on the 29th, 0.45% higher than the previous day. On the one hand, the price of raw material butadiene continued to rise, the cost side was pushed higher, and the ex factory price of petrochemicals was firm. According to the business agency, the current butadiene price was 6288 yuan / ton; the ex factory price of Daqing cis-1-butadiene in Northeast China of PetroChina was 8800 yuan / ton. On the other hand, the production of downstream tires and automobiles increased compared with the previous period, and the demand side was supported. According to the business agency, in August 2020, the domestic output of rubber tire outer tire was 77.104 million, with a year-on-year increase of 13.4%; in the first ten days of September 2020, the automobile output of 11 key enterprises reached 729000, with a year-on-year increase of 17%.

 

Aftermarket forecast: raw material price is high, downstream tire demand increases. It is expected that the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will remain high in the future.

Thiourea