On September 5, the PX commodity index was 52.80, unchanged from yesterday, down 48.44% from the peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 15.92% from the low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 5th day. Hongrun 600,000 tons new plant was running steadily, Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant was running steadily, Urumqi Petrochemical Plant was started 50%, Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant was started one line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant was overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant was put into operation, and other units were operated steadily. Temporarily stable operation, due to the normal domestic market supply of p-xylene, the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. The closing price of p-xylene market in Asia is stable on September 4. The closing price is US$758-760/ton FOB Korea and US$777-779/ton CFR China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The low fluctuation of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of domestic p-xylene is temporarily stable.

On September 4, the price of WTI crude oil futures rose to $56.26 per barrel, an increase of $2.32. Brent crude oil futures rose to $60.70 per barrel, an increase of $2.44. According to the latest data released by EIA last Friday, the daily output of oil in the United States fell to 12.82 million barrels in June, down 33,000 barrels from May. Although the decline is not significant, it is still falling, and the trend of crude oil price is rising, which has a positive impact on downstream petrochemical products and a temporary stable price trend for xylene. Recently, the textile industry has maintained a low price, PTA price trend is temporarily stable on the 5th day. The average offer price in East China is raised near 5200-5300 yuan/ton. As of the 4th day, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 94.5% and the polyester industry start-up rate is about 90%. Due to the limited support for the market rebound by the planned overhaul, the trading atmosphere has declined and the purchase price is based on trade. Business mainly, sporadic polyester factories follow-up, downstream PTA market prices maintain low volatility, PX market prices are expected to maintain low volatility in the short term.

Price data

According to the latest monitoring data of business associations, the average price of mainstream refineries of domestic naphtha was 6077.50 yuan/ton as of August 31, up 0.83% from 6027.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month, and rebounded after the price of refined naphtha fell this month.

The naphtha commodity index on August 31 was 75.01, unchanged from yesterday, down 26.91% from the peak of 102.62 points in the cycle (2012-09-24), and up 77.58% from the low of 42.24 points on July 19, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2012-09-01 to date)

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: Refining naphtha prices rebounded after falling this month. Typhoon Lichma in mid-August affected the shutdown of some refining units. Refining naphtha prices remained high this month. At present, the mainstream price of hydronaphtha is about 6000 yuan/ton. On August 30, the price gap between naphtha and Brent crude oil fell to a nearly two-and-a-half-month low of $10.75 per ton in the Asian light distillate oil market, which was hampered by oversupply concerns.

Industry Chain: Upstream: According to the monitoring of business associations, WTI crude oil in the United States was 58.58 dollars per barrel at the beginning of the month, 56.71 dollars per barrel at the end of the month, with a monthly increase and decrease of – 3.19%; Brent crude oil was 65.17 dollars per barrel at the beginning of the month, 61.08 dollars per barrel at the end of the month, with a monthly increase and decrease of – 6.28%. In August, Sino-US trade relations fluctuated, global risky assets plunged, OPEC and other firm attitudes towards production reduction, as well as U.S. crude oil production and stock boost and other factors affected the trend of international crude oil prices. Downstream: Some Sinopec refineries are scheduled for September, and some suppliers are actively stocking up. According to the monitoring of business associations, affected by the rise of crude oil in the upstream, the decline of port stock and the improvement of market turnover, the domestic toluene market has been in a good general trend this month. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 5800-5850 yuan/ton; the xylene market continues to rise, and the mainstream price in East China is about 6200-6250 yuan/ton. At present, the domestic stock of pure benzene is relatively small, and the Korean plant overhaul and European overhaul are not yet finished. Global supply is tight, which boosts the market. At present, the price of pure benzene is 5200-5300 yuan/ton. In the PX market, the domestic PX market price at the end of the month was 6 650 yuan/ton, the overall decline was 5.0%, and the PX external price maintained a downward trend.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in August 2019, there were five kinds of commodities rising in the energy sector, of which more than 5% increased, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector. The top three commodities were MTBE (8.16%), gasoline (2.24%) and methanol (1.22%). There are 11 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are dimethyl ether (-9.03%), liquefied natural gas (-7.08%) and Brent crude oil (-6.28%). This month’s average rise and fall was -1.52%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Energy analysts from business associations believe that naphtha is supported by the rise in international oil prices. Some refineries of Sinopec are scheduled for September and some suppliers are actively stocking up. With the coming of National Day, traffic will be regulated, environmental protection and production restriction. It is expected that the price of naphtha will rise in September, with an average price range of 5900-6300 yuan/ton.

Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations, the price of domestic potassium nitrate rose in August. On August 1st, the price of domestic first-class industrial potassium nitrate was 4300 yuan/ton, and on August 30th, the price of domestic first-class industrial potassium nitrate was 4383.50 yuan/ton.

II. Market Analysis

Products: In August, the domestic potassium nitrate Market has an active trading atmosphere, potassium nitrate manufacturers are more active, the overall stock of potassium nitrate is at a low level, the start-up rate of manufacturers is at a low level, there is no sales pressure, the actual turnover is still acceptable. Although the downstream purchasing is just in need, the stock of potassium nitrate is low, and the market of potassium nitrate is rising slightly. The main potassium nitrate manufacturers quoted 4250-4500 yuan/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

The analyst of potassium nitrate of business association thinks: the market of potassium nitrate rose slightly in August, the actual spot delivery is still acceptable, the traditional peak season of “gold, nine silver and ten ten” is coming, which is good for the price of potassium nitrate to rise, the market may be warming up, mainly by the demand-side-led price trend.

On September 2, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 59.85, up 2.1 points from yesterday, down 50.18% from the cyclical peak of 120.13 points (2012-02-28), up 23.61% from the lowest point of 48.42 on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has risen, the market price of phthalic anhydride in eastern China has risen, downstream factories are just in need of purchasing, factory inventory is still under pressure, high-end transactions are blocked, but orders on the market are higher than before, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is higher. In East China, the mainstream of neighbouring-law supply negotiations is 6000-6200 yuan/ton, while in naphthalene-law supply negotiations is 5600-5700 yuan/ton; in North China, the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market is 6000-6100 yuan/ton, the market price keeps rising, some manufacturers increase the ex-factory price, the downstream start-up is not high, purchasing on demand is dominant, and the domestic phthalic anhydride market has a strong wait-and-see mentality. The plant operates stably, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride is rising.

Recently, the domestic price of phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec o-phthalic acid is 6300 yuan/ton, the import market of phthalic anhydride in port area has not changed much, the quotation is stable, the recent market of o-phthalic anhydride in port is general, the port stock is at a low level, the quotation of o-phthalic anhydride outer plate is stable, the actual transaction price is based on negotiation, the actual single detailed discussion, the upstream price trend Market prices are rising. DOP prices in the downstream rose, isooctanol prices rose, and DOP costs rose. DOP prices rose, DOP downstream demand shocked and declined, customer purchasing enthusiasm was general, downstream PVC market slightly lower, DOP market mainstream transaction price of about 7350 yuan/ton, downstream prices rose, the market price of phthalic anhydride is expected to remain strong in the later period.

According to statistics, the domestic hydrofluoric acid price declined sharply in August, with the price at the end of the month at 10 730 yuan/ton, 7.90% lower than that at the beginning of the month at 11650 yuan/ton, and 0.72% lower than that at the beginning of the month.

Products: In August, the overall trend of hydrofluoric acid prices fell sharply, the market situation of manufacturers in the field has not improved significantly, the starting rate of downstream refrigerant industry remains at a low level, the domestic market demand for hydrofluoric acid is limited, and the domestic hydrofluoric acid plant maintains a high starting rate, the domestic spot supply is sufficient, and some manufacturers are downgraded. At the end of the month, the main stream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is 10,000-10,500 yuan/ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 10,000-11,000 yuan/ton. Recently, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid has been slightly lower, the demand of refrigerant industry downstream is poor, the supply of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers is not good, and the market price trend is declining. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream of domestic negotiations on hydrofluoric acid in Fujian is around 9500-10500 yuan/ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Shandong is between 1000-10500 yuan/ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Jiangxi is between 1000-11000 yuan/ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Inner Mongolia is between 9500-11000 yuan/ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid is declining.

Industry chain: In August, the price of fluorite in the upstream of hydrofluoric acid declined. By the end of the month, the price of fluorite was 3056.25 yuan/ton. Recently, the fluorite plant started to work normally. On the whole, the supply of fluorite is sufficient. However, the fluorite market is greatly affected by environmental protection, the supply of fluorite in the field is normal, the price of fluorite in some factories has fallen back, and the market price of fluorite has fallen. Lattice trend slightly declined. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, the production enterprise device is stable, but the pressure of goods is too high, inventory expansion appears to a certain extent, the enterprise aims to make profits to deliver goods. The downstream weakness continues, the peak season of refrigerants has passed, and demand has only decreased but not increased. The price of domestic large enterprises has maintained the level of 16,000-18,000 yuan/ton. Domestic market price trend of R134a is declining, the start-up rate of production enterprises remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. However, the price of on-site transactions does not change much. Businessmen purchase on demand. At the end of the peak season, the downstream demand of terminals decreases but does not increase. The downstream demand is not good, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is low. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen purchase on demand. Recently, due to the normal supply of goods and poor downstream demand, the market price of hydrofluoric acid has declined.

Industry: In August, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid industry started to operate normally, the hydrofluoric acid field product spot supply is sufficient, and the hydrofluoric acid market price trend is declining.

Recently, the hydrofluoric acid plant started to operate normally, the supply of goods in the field is normal, the price of raw material fluorite market is lower, which has a negative impact on the hydrofluoric acid market. In addition, the end of the upstream refrigeration industry peak season, the demand for hydrofluoric acid only declines but does not increase. Chen Ling, an analyst of hydrofluoric acid business, believes that the price of the hydrofluoric acid Market in September may be small. The price of hydrofluoric acid will be around 10,000 yuan per ton.