On August 29, the PX commodity index was 56.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.31% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 22.94% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 29th. Pengzhou Petrochemical Unit operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Unit started 50% of the operation, Fuhai Created Aromatic Hydrocarbon Unit started a line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Unit overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Unit put into operation, and other units operated steadily temporarily due to the introduction of new units. Domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On August 28, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia increased by 3 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 765-767 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 784-786 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The fluctuation of foreign prices has a certain impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of domestic p-xylene is temporarily stable.

On August 28, the price of WTI crude oil futures rose to $55.78 per barrel, an increase of $0.85. Brent crude oil futures rose to $60.49 per barrel, an increase of $0.98. The market’s worries about the prospect of oil demand continued to intensify. In a recent report issued by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the growth rate of global crude oil demand per day in 2019 is expected to be reduced from 1.5 million barrels to 1.1 million barrels. It is also expected that there will be a slight surplus in the oil market in 2020, and that the trend of crude oil prices will decline, which will have a negative impact on downstream petrochemical products and the market price of paraxylene. The trend of the latter is temporarily stable. Recently, the textile industry has maintained a low price, PTA price trend was temporarily stable on the 29th. The average price in East China was raised near 5100-5200 yuan/ton. By the 26th day, the domestic PTA start-up rate was about 94.5%, the polyester industry start-up rate was about 90%. The PTA social inventory was estimated at about 1.4 million tons. Affected by the shutdown and maintenance of the plant, it maintained in August as a whole. A small rhythm of de-warehousing. PTA factory inventory accounts for about 30%, polyester factory raw material inventory accounts for about 28%, downstream polyester factory has space to continue to replenish. Towards the traditional sales season of “Gold, Nine, Silver and Ten” for textiles, downstream terminal enterprises may usher in the procurement cycle and demand side will improve. It is expected that the price of PX market will remain volatile in the short term.

On August 27, the fluorite commodity index was 107.46, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.71% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 118.37% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic fluorite price trend is slightly lower, the average domestic fluorite price is 3056.25 yuan/ton as of 28 days, the recent domestic fluorite plant start-up is normal, the mine and flotation plant start-up is normal, the supply of fluorite is sufficient, the recent downstream hydrofluoric acid price is lower, for the fluorite market on-demand procurement, fluorite on-site prices. Poor condition, fluorite market prices declined. Recent downstream installation start-up situation is general, fluorite spot supply is normal, terminal downstream demand is not improving, resulting in a decline in market prices. As of the 28th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2800-3000 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2900-3200 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2900-3200 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2900-3200 yuan/ton, and the price trend of fluorite fell back.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid in downstream fluorite is declining. As of 28 days, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10 730 yuan/ton. The decline of the market price of hydrofluoric acid has a negative impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant is general, the demand for fluorite has weakened, and the price of fluorite has slightly decreased. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, the production enterprise device is stable, but the pressure of goods is too high, inventory expansion appears to a certain extent, the enterprise aims to make profits to deliver goods. The downstream weakness continues, the peak season of refrigerants has passed, and demand has only decreased but not increased. The price of domestic large enterprises has maintained the level of 16,000-18,000 yuan/ton. Domestic market price trend of R134a is declining, the start-up rate of production enterprises remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. However, the price of on-site transactions does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. At the end of the peak season, the demand downstream of the terminal decreases but does not increase. The price affected by the fluorite market is slightly lower.

Generally speaking, the downstream refrigerant industry is declining, and the supply of fluorite market is sufficient. The demand of downstream refrigerant industry is not good. Chen Ling, a business analyst, believes that the price of fluorite market may be slightly lower.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, DOP prices fell first and then rose this week, while the price of plasticizers rose concussively. As of August 23, the price of DOP in East China was 7350.00 yuan/ton, up 83.33 yuan/ton from 7266.67 yuan/ton last weekend, up 1.15%, and down 22.50% from the same period last year. On August 26, DOP prices rose, offering 7383.33 yuan per ton, up 33.33 yuan per ton per day, DOP prices rose, and the market rose after that.

II. Market Analysis

This week, DOP’s external quotation has fallen sharply, which has a negative effect on the DOP market. At the beginning of the month, the price of DOP in China was 890 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton from last week’s price of 900 US dollars/ton, and that in Southeast Asia was 1150 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton from last week’s price of 1155 US dollars/ton. The operating rate of DOP equipment in plasticizer enterprises was maintained, the demand was normal, and the overall market of plasticizer DOP was still in short supply. DOP prices in the city have some downward pressure.

Analysis of Industrial Chain

For raw materials, this week DOP raw materials octanol and phthalic anhydride prices are falling first and then rising, the overall shock rise. Starting from August 26, the price of phthalic anhydride and octanol both showed a sharp upward trend, and DOP raw materials may increase in the future. It is expected that DOP market will rise mainly after DOP.

On the downstream demand side, the price of PVC has fallen sharply this week, while the demand for PVC has fallen. Overall, the DOP market in the future is negative. However, from the perspective of the rise and fall, the decline is small and the DOP bearish is limited.

3. Future Market Forecast

Bai Jiaxin, a DOP data analyst at business associations, believes that the recent rise in DOP raw materials prices, DOP costs, and DOP rising pressures in the future increase; in terms of demand, the overall market of the plastic industry is stable, and the market for plasticizers is limited. In the external market, DOP prices fell slightly, which was bad for DOP, but overall, the rising power of raw materials was greater than bad pressure, and DOP market in the future still had some momentum, but there was little room for increase. DOP prices in the future were expected to rise slightly.

I. The price trend of epichlorohydrin:

The market for epichlorohydrin fell first and then rose this week, according to a large number of data from business associations. As of August 23, the average price of epichlorohydrin was 13466.67 yuan/ton, which was 22.90% lower than that of August 1.

II. Market analysis:

Product: Epichlorohydrin market fell first and then rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the mainstream quotation of epichlorohydrin was about 11500 yuan/ton. Some Shandong factories closed the market without quotation. The foreign quotation of traders followed the factories mostly. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm was not high and the trading atmosphere was slow. The mainstream quotation of epichlorohydrin was about 11000-11500 yuan/ton in the middle of the week. When the price fell to a low level, the orders of downstream factories increased. Downstream low-price buying is positive, epichlorohydrin is rapidly rising, the willingness of the holders to buy at low prices is reduced, and confidence in the future market is increased. As of the 23rd, the mainstream quotation in the East China market was around 13500 yuan/ton, and the acceptance from the surrounding areas was delivered. Mainstream quotation in Shandong market is around 13300 yuan/ton, self-raised. Mainstream market quotation in Huangshan area is around 13500 yuan/ton, acceptance delivered.

Industry chain: The price of upstream propylene enterprises in Shandong Province maintained stable in early August, declined continuously from 5 days to 8 days, declined 450-500 yuan/ton, rebounded on 10 days, rose 200 yuan/ton on 14 days, stabilized on 15 days, declined sharply on 17 days, went 300 yuan/ton on three days, rebounded on 20 days and rebounded on 22 days. It rose by 150 yuan/ton and remained stable on the 23rd. At present, the market turnover is between 7550 yuan/ton and 7700 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price is about 7550 yuan/ton. Up to 23 days, downstream epoxy resin with epichlorohydrin, the focus of negotiations increased, low-cost supply less.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, there are 25 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical sector in the 33-week (8.19-8.23) rise-fall list of commodity prices in 2019, of which more than 5% increase is 3.6% of the monitored commodities in the plate; the first three commodities are acetic acid (8.90%), crude benzene (7.83%) and aniline (5.17%). There are 30 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 4.8% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are hydrochloric acid (-7.50%), dichloromethane (-7.35%) and sulfur (-5.48%). This week’s average rise and fall was 0.03%.

3. Future market forecast:

Analysts of business association epichlorohydrin think that the price of upstream propylene rises, supported by the cost of raw materials, epichlorohydrin market is good, but with the high price of epichlorohydrin, downstream manufacturers are cautious to buy. It is expected that in the short term, the market of epichlorohydrin will be dominated by narrow-range finishing operation, and more attention should be paid to the mainstream market. Delivery status and information guidance of main factories after resuming quotation.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the price of asphalt market has been stable this week. The price of asphalt has been reported at 3588 yuan/ton, which is equal to the price of asphalt last week. However, the price of domestic asphalt market has experienced a process of first rising and then falling.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: This week Sinopec settled the price of asphalt, but affected by the market demand of Typhoon transit compressed asphalt and the start of shipment of asphalt social warehouse, this week the price of asphalt remained stable as a whole.

Industry Chain: API report earlier this week showed that crude oil stocks in the U.S. decreased by 3.454 million barrels last week and active drilling in July decreased by 17. The report data showed that crude oil was on the rise, but UBS lowered oil price expectations for six months and 12 months later, OPEC also lowered global crude oil demand growth expectations by 40,000 barrels per day to 1.1 million in 2019. Barrel/day, while worries about the global recession continue to rise. International crude oil prices rose first and then fell this week, while WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose slightly by 1.62% and 2.90% this week.

Asphalt market: Northeast asphalt market terminal demand has been sluggish. After typhoon transit, the demand for asphalt in Shandong, East China and North China is stable. In South and Southwest China, the demand performance is relatively flat and there is no obvious bright spot. With the rising international oil price and the news of Mali crude oil supply cut off, the domestic asphalt futures price dropped to 3250 yuan/ton, and then fell again. Overall, the price of domestic asphalt market has been running steadily.

3. Future Market Forecast

Lu Xingjun, asphalt analyst of business association, believes that the international crude oil shock is more likely to rise, the short-term impact of the news of supply disruption in Mali is limited, the overall support of asphalt prices is relatively small, and the probability of weak market stability of asphalt prices next week is greater.