In mid-May, the dollar index unexpectedly weakened, crude oil and downstream products can be obtained because of the breathing machine, have started rally. Commodity futures rose before the holiday, the main 1709 contract from 2200 yuan / ton line jumped to 2400 yuan / ton in the vicinity. But the methanol rebound in the road facing more obstacles, is expected in June may return to the decline in methanol.

Crude oil lacks further strength

The OPEC meeting, which was highly concerned by the market, ended at the end of May, although the oil producers agreed to extend the agreement to cut crude oil production to the first quarter of 2018, but still remain unchanged at the original level, Disappointed, the international oil prices and therefore lost further momentum, which New York crude oil rose to 52 US dollars / barrel near the turn down. I believe that the OPEC oil production organization is not in the cut range to further improve, but only rely on to extend production time is difficult to play a role in re-balancing the crude oil market, because the existing production agreement continues to maintain the current level of 9 months, The results will only make US crude oil production continues to rise, and OPEC oil producers to balance the supply and demand of crude oil market and the efforts to fall short, oil prices can not rise again.

Domestic methanol supply pressure diminished

Thanks to the early maintenance of the methanol plant has been restarted and part of the gas device restart, since May, the domestic methanol business rate continues to show upward trend, the level of the whole month to maintain 57% -63%. Although the central environmental inspection action has made the coal chemical industry in Shanxi area downtime, while the Northwest Evergreen, Shenmu and Gui Lu and other devices have also been affected, but the impact of a shorter time. Overall, the release of methanol production capacity is still advancing, supply pressure tends to increase. According to Jinlian a statistical data show that as of the end of May, China’s methanol enterprises started at 63%, an increase of 4 percentage points from the beginning of the month. Which northwest and Shandong methanol operating rate rose more significant, the monthly increase of 11% and 7% respectively.

Into June, Shandong Province, the new methanol project is expected to be strong, of which the new Phoenix to build an annual output of 200,000 tons of methanol plant is expected to be put into operation in June, while Shandong Mingshui and Hualu Hengsheng new annual production of 60 10,000 tons and 1 million tons project will also be expected to put into operation at the end of June. In the long term, Shandong Ruxi new annual output of 800,000 tons project and Rising annual output of 500,000 tons project is expected to be put into operation in September – October, in other words with the new methanol project put into operation, supply increment will be further expanded. In addition, the international methanol market late imports will show a growth trend, mainly due to the current recovery of natural gas supply in South America, part of the device operating rate increased to full load.

Downstream demand into the off-season season

Usually in June each year, domestic methanol downstream products formaldehyde, acetic acid and dimethyl ether will enter the traditional off-season model, the operating rate will be varying degrees of decline, mainly due to the arrival of the southern rainy season led to decline in plate production, thereby reducing the demand for formaldehyde , While dimethyl ether and acetic acid, the enterprise will take the off-season to carry out maintenance work, lower operating rate weakened for the demand for methanol. It is understood that the week before the holiday domestic methanol downstream product prices showed a downward trend, the weekly decline around 0.62% -1.93%. Terminal demand caused by weak purchasing power is not strong, methanol downstream manufacturers choose more parking maintenance device.

Overall, the international crude oil failed to further strengthen the difficult to give downstream goods can continue to do more emboldened, while the methanol supply and demand pattern is weak, the new device continues to run in June, external imports tend to grow, while the downstream demand is turned Into the off season. Is expected to fall in June or return to methanol

In the main raw material titanium concentrate prices down the case, the market appears a trace of empty voice. So what about the performance of the market this week, with a word to the profile can be described as “calm surface, but actually undercurrent.”

In view of the recent market performance, the current situation is different performance. The mainstream market is divided into two categories.

For the current line of large enterprises, their supply order is mainly for the export – direct supply – dealers. That is to say the monthly production of the first choice to ensure that exports. Mainstream enterprises to account for the total output of 30-40% of the proportion of more enterprises can account for about half of the second is the direct supply of end customers, accounting for about 30-40% share, and finally to the dealer to do Sales. Then the benefits of this model is that the domestic titanium dioxide enterprises in the domestic sales pressure is far less big. Monthly production of the basic products are exported or to the downstream factory. Sometimes the main dealer is difficult to get their monthly contract amount, can only wait, so for the current domestic titanium dioxide business, the domestic first-line brand sales pressure is relatively weak, its multi-stable price wait and see.

And for some second and third line brands of small and medium enterprises, their sales pressure will be greater, the first export they are very difficult to do great. Are basically dominated by domestic sales, coupled with the lack of differentiation advantages, corporate shipments difficult to have significant competitiveness. In the current overall single reduction in the case of small and medium-sized titanium dioxide business sales pressure continues to increase, although the surface to follow the mainstream enterprises to maintain the stability of the strategy, but in the overall transaction to take a single talk strategy, according to Zhuo A survey found that the current number of enterprises in the actual transaction process has been a certain degree of loosening.

For the domestic import agents, the current overall market is relatively optimistic; due to foreign enterprises to domestic supply has limited, in the high-end market, foreign products are relatively tight, in this case, foreign companies have raised the latter part of the plan. Huntsman in the domestic plan raised $ 250 / ton, Tenova plans to raise $ 200 / ton, the curtain is expected to increase in the amount of 250 US dollars / ton.

In view of the above, for the current market of titanium dioxide can be described as several happy several worry, but the market running to the present, the terminal downstream of the resistance to titanium dioxide has emerged, whether it is tight imports or domestic mainstream business inventory is low, late Titanium dioxide business sales pressure gradually increased, the short-term market surface calm, but in fact has undercurrent surging, do not rule out the latter part of the market to save the risk of callback, the proposed industry prudent operation, concerned about the enterprise out of stock and inventory recovery situation.

On May 22nd, Swiss chemical firm Clariant and Huntsman announced that its board of directors unanimously approved an equal all-stock merger agreement. The transaction is expected to be completed by the end of 2017.

The merged company will be named HuntsmanClariant. According to the 2016 financial data, the merger of the two companies will create a leading global specialty chemicals company with sales of approximately $ 13.2 billion and adjusted EBITDA to $ 2.3 billion with a market value of about $ 20 billion.

The combined entity will benefit from both sides’ advantages, will share the intellectual property and have a more powerful joint innovation platform. The annual cost synergies are about $ 400 million.

Based on the current market value of the two companies, Clariant shareholders hold approximately 52% of the shares of the new entity and Huntsman shareholders hold the remaining shares. Headquartered in Pratteln, Switzerland, the company is headquartered in Woodlands, Texas, USA, and will be listed directly on the Swiss exchange and the New York Stock Exchange.

The new company Main polyurethane, pigments, automotive liquids, additives and resins and a series of chemical products, involving aerospace, agriculture and household cleaning and other industries.

Results show that Clariant first quarter sales of 1.602 billion Swiss francs, higher than the same period last year 1.478 billion Swiss francs, an increase of 9%. Huntsman’s first quarter operating income of 2.469 billion US dollars, net profit of 92 million US dollars, adjusted EBITDA profit of $ 329 million.

Reuters survey, with weak data and political concerns to combat confidence, the majority of analysts believe that the US economy grew 20% chance of 20% in the past month has declined.

External expectations of US President Trump’s tax cuts and growth stimulus have diminished. It has been reported that Trump tried to intervene in the investigation of the relationship between the former national security adviser and Russia. Reported that US stocks hit since the beginning of September the largest single-day decline.

Trump’s political turmoil distracted the attention of Washington policymakers, and the possibility of tax reform and other fiscal policies that spurred the economy were delayed.

According to the latest survey of 100 analysts on May 12-18, US economic growth in the second quarter rebounded to 3.2%. But is expected to show that this may be the best growth rate for the rest of the year 2017, and now the average annual growth rate of the next two years or less than 3%.

IHS Markit analyst Rebecca Mitchell said, “the first quarter growth downturn, making the US annual economic growth is unlikely to reach 3% of the mark, which requires three consecutive quarters of chain growth rate of more than 5%.

Fifty-three percent of respondents said the US economy had fallen 3 percent in the past month, and 37 percent said the odds were not changed, with only 10 percent saying the chances were higher.

The general view is from July 2017 to the end of 2018, quarterly economic growth of 2.4-2.5%.

Even if the inflation forecast slightly lower than last month.

The core PCE price index expected in the second quarter of 2018 will not reach the Fed 2% target. Core PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation target.

These forecasts not only highlight the gap between the 3% expected US economic growth and the actual economic performance, but also the challenges that Trump faces.

“We have always believed that the economic growth of 20% in 2017 is unlikely, with weak economic data in the first quarter, and the prospect of stimulating fiscal policy in 2017 seems to have supported the forecast,” said Bank of the West, chief analyst Scott Anderson said.

The report predicts that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in the second quarter and raise interest rates again in the third quarter, bringing the federal funds rate range to 1.25-1.50%.

When asked what would make the Fed raise again in 2017, the plan was blocked, and some analysts said they thought it might be the stock market crash.

Some people point out that the differences between confidence and official economic data can also cause the Fed to do anything.

But most analysts believe that the core inflation is the main reason for the fall.

The 23 inspection teams sent by Environmental Protection Department have completed the second round of intensive supervision, the inspection results show that 66.2% of enterprises have environmental problems. In addition, the seven inspectors of the third batch of central environmental protection inspectors in seven provinces and municipalities have completed the first phase of the provincial level inspectorate task and formally entered the supervisory stage. In seven provinces and cities side of the inspection side of the improvement, has been responsible for 1278 people. At this point, the central environmental inspectors have lasted more than a year, a wide range , long time and strongly force, known as the largest scale action directly organized by state government in China’s environmental history. (The following information from the economic reference)

Stage inspection results look forward to the recent announcement, the result of the largest action in the history is arising.

With the starting of the third batch of central government environmental protection inspection , the central environmental inspectors have covered 23 provinces, the results of the inspectors have also recently announced. State Environmental Protection Inspectorate Office announced on May 11, seven inspection teams of the third batch of central environmental protection inspection in seven provinces and municipalities has completed the first phase of the provincial level inspection task, officially entered the sinking stage. They inspect while correcting. 1278 persons has been punished. It is reported that the third batch of seven central environmental protection inspection team from April 24 to April 28 onwards in Tianjin, Shanxi, Liaoning, Anhui, Fujian, Hunan, Guizhou and other provinces (cities) to implement inspectors stationed. At this point, the central environmental inspection has covered 23 provinces.

Till May 9, seven inspection teams received a total of 14479 cases, including 1431 in Tianjin, 1236 in Shanxi, 2537 in Liaoning, 1587 in Anhui, 2847 in Fujian, 3037 in Hunan and 1804 in Guizhou. After calculating, the Inspection teams hava transferred 9194 case to the inspected area .

So far, this is known as China’s environmental protection ever, the largest level of direct action at the national level has been going on for more than a year.

Into May, the local air pollution situation has improved, after a “history of the largest inspector” has been quickly attack. In the beginning of April this year, the Ministry of Environmental Protection from the country deployed 5600 environmental law enforcement officers, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei air pollution transmission channel to determine the situation, the situation is not in place in some areas, “2 + 26″ city to carry out a one-year intensive control of air pollution control. To May 7, the Inspectorate group of inspectors 8447 enterprises (units), found 5594 enterprises exist environmental problems, accounting for about 66.2% of the total inspection.

A number of grassroots cadres said that the current work of the central environmental inspectors has been normalized, look forward to environmental protection inspectors in the future to gradually institutionalized operation to reduce the impact of human factors, so that the problem is the implementation and rectification, but also summed up the experience, Inspectors procedures and norms rose to the level of regulation. In addition, we should further strengthen the construction of environmental protection system, cultivate citizens’ environmental awareness, strengthen enterprises and institutions, social organizations, organizations and other initiatives to participate in environmental protection, highlighting the implementation of the incentive mechanism for environmental protection inspectors.

Environmental protection system “down to change” pilot next month will be fully rolled out next year

China ‘s environmental management system reform is advancing in depth. Recently, the provincial environmental monitoring agencies to monitor the implementation of vertical management system reform pilot will be completed by the end of June, the current 12 pilot provinces and cities, Hebei and Chongqing and other places have been officially issued the implementation of the program and supporting policies, by 2020, The following environmental protection departments will operate in accordance with the new system.

Environmental Protection Department of the local environmental protection vertical management work group office director Ye Min said, “the whole ‘down to change’ work is being advanced, including Hebei, Chongqing, ‘down to change’ program and the results have been in the assessment stage. The next step, according to the central deployment time Arrangements, local environmental protection vertical reform will be all out next year. ”

In September 2016, the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the Guiding Opinions on the Pilot Project on the Reform of the Vertical Management System for Surveillance and Enforcement of Environmental Protection Institutions under the Provincial Environment. Opinions, the provincial environmental protection departments after the reform of the province (autonomous regions and municipalities) environmental protection work to implement a unified supervision and management, in the province (autonomous regions and municipalities) within the unified planning and construction of environmental monitoring network, the city and county level environmental protection departments Environmental monitoring functions received by the provincial environmental protection departments, through the city and county areas and other forms of implementation of environmental monitoring, the implementation of vertical management, but also to develop and implement a list of local environmental responsibility, a clear local party committee and government and its related departments Responsibility for protection.

Subsequently, Hebei, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Fujian, Shandong, Henan, Hubei, Guangdong, Chongqing, Guizhou, Shaanxi, Qinghai and other 12 provinces and cities have put forward the pilot application and entered the reform stage.

Specific aspects of the pilot, learned from Hebei Province, the province has basically completed the vertical management of environmental protection reform at the provincial level, environmental management has been in accordance with the new system of formal operation. It is reported that Hebei 6 Environmental Ombudsman’s Office, 11 city environmental monitoring center in the resident was formally established. After the reform, the environmental monitoring function of Hebei will be exercised by the provincial environmental protection department, and the six environmental ombudsman offices will be managed by the office. Chongqing City in the “vertical change” process, has introduced a number of policies, a clear prosecution, public security organs and environmental protection administrative departments in the process of environmental resources in the process of functional responsibilities, improve the administrative law enforcement and criminal justice convergence mechanism The

In the view of Ye Min, the vertical management system is the basic system of environmental governance, so “vertical change” is “chassis” system reform. He believes that the guidance is to implement the ecological civilization construction and green development requirements of the new initiatives, is conducive to promoting the improvement of environmental quality as the core of environmental management transformation, is conducive to speed up the filling of the ecological environment short board.

Ma Yong, deputy secretary general of the China Foundation for Biodiversity Conservation and Green Development, said that through the vertical management system can overcome the local protectionism, while environmental resources and technical support can be more solid.

Some experts said that the reform is aimed at China’s current environmental regulatory system there are some of the more prominent issues, including environmental protection departments in the grassroots level is often subject to local protectionist intervention and difficult to place, and the relevant departments of environmental responsibility division is not Clearly, the environmental protection departments often appear for the government departments to shoulder the responsibility of the overlap between the various departments or the phenomenon of responsibility blank. “To distinguish between party and government and environmental protection department responsibility, in the past any environmental incidents and problems, will frequently hit the environmental protection department to go, causing a lot of problems, but also on the grassroots environmental protection departments caused great pressure.” Ma Yong said.

It is worth mentioning that environmental protection “down to change” a key task is to include environmental law enforcement agencies in the government administrative law enforcement department sequence. In this regard, the Environmental Protection Department of Environmental Supervision, Tian Weiyong deep feeling, he said, “before the environmental protection department staff to wear clothes is not uniform, ‘wear off, off wear.’ Many cases of obstruction of law enforcement is because there is no The reasons for the uniform dress. The past law enforcement there is a little guerrilla feeling, not into a climate, wear their own clothes to the enterprise to go, people certainly do not attach importance to now uniform clothing, we see this is the ‘regular army’.

In accordance with the requirements of the reform of the request, the pilot provinces to complete the pilot work to form a self-assessment report, the Ministry of Environmental Protection, the central organization of the pilot work to sum up the assessment, proposed supporting policies and work arrangements recommendations, and finally reported to the Central Committee, the State Council approved the full Reform work. Other provinces not included in the pilot to do a good job investigating thoroughly, policy research and other preparatory work, organize the implementation of reform and implementation of the program, and strive to the end of June 2018 before the completion of the provincial environmental protection management system adjustment work. On this basis, the final to ensure that the “three five” period fully completed the environmental protection agencies to monitor the implementation of vertical management system reform task, by 2020 the following provincial environmental protection departments in accordance with the new system and efficient operation.

“National implementation is certainly the general trend, and now to consider is the top design issues, we must sum up the work of the pilot provinces and cities in time, especially the experience and lessons.” Ma Yong said, especially the “vertical change” in the process of staffing, personnel Treatment, job division of responsibilities and other issues, must be reflected in the top design.