Since May, the domestic ABS market has continued to decline, with most spot prices of various grades decreasing. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 12th, the average price of ABS sample products was 10437.50 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -2.68% compared to early May.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: In May, domestic ABS industry companies such as Yulong Petrochemical restarted, with an increase in operating rates. The overall load level has rebounded from 65% at the end of April to around 70% currently. The average weekly output is close to 130000 tons, and the inventory level of aggregation enterprises is high, stable, and fluctuating. The on-site supply is still at a relatively abundant level. At the same time, in the second half of the month, two companies planned to launch new equipment production capacity. Except for Liaoning Jinfa, there are few maintenance arrangements in the industry in the short term, and the supply-demand contradiction pattern is profound. Overall, there has been no improvement in the supply side’s support for ABS spot prices.
Cost factor: In early May, the trend of ABS upstream materials was mainly stagnant, and the support for ABS cost side was average. In terms of acrylonitrile, the local supply contraction in China before and after the May Day holiday has led to a temporary weak balance in the market, coupled with continued cost pressures. Suppliers are maintaining high prices, and the overall market is in a stalemate and consolidation. In the long run, considering the gradual release of new production capacity, but in the short term, the industry inventory is controllable and the overall situation is temporarily stable.

The domestic butadiene market has fluctuated within a range since May. Last month, the price of butadiene significantly declined in the middle of the month. At the end of the month, some downstream enterprises purchased on dips, and the market trading atmosphere slightly improved, leading to a rebound in the market. Under the influence of various news such as crude oil, tariffs, and consumption, the butadiene market is experiencing both long and short positions, with prices mainly consolidating.
After the May Day holiday, the domestic styrene market fluctuated within a certain range. Overall, the supply of raw material pure benzene is not smooth, and the price has been lowered. The maintenance of the styrene supply side has ended and entered the restart stage. The low port inventory has provided support for prices, while the demand side remains weak. Under the game of supply and demand, styrene has fluctuated. The weak demand and raw materials in the future are difficult to change, and it is expected that the styrene market will operate weakly in the short term.
On the demand side: As we enter May, the load of downstream ABS factories in the ABS terminal has generally flattened, and the purchasing logic tends to lean towards buying at the bottom and supplementing orders for urgent needs. But there is still inventory that needs to be digested, resulting in sluggish new order trading. The confidence in the market is weak, the stocking atmosphere is cautious, and the flow of goods is slow. Overall, the demand side has poor support for the ABS market.
Future forecast
The domestic ABS market continued to decline in early May. The sorting and running of the upstream three material intervals provides average comprehensive support for the cost side of ABS. The production load of ABS polymerization plant has rebounded, and the high supply level has been relaxed. The weak consumption pattern on the demand side has not improved. Business analysts believe that ABS has fallen to near cost price, and the market has long had strong supply and weak demand. Coupled with the impact of international news such as equivalent tariffs, pessimistic expectations for the future are biased. The bullish trend within the market is hard to find, and there is still a possibility that the market may continue to decline in the short term.

Price Trend Review
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, on May 9th, spot electrolytic nickel was reported at 124758 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.33%, showing an overall trend of “first rising and then falling, with range oscillation”. The specific phased performance is as follows:
Short term rebound after the holiday
Support for replenishment demand: After the May Day holiday, some downstream enterprises restocked at low prices, coupled with a rebound in market sentiment, resulting in a slight increase in nickel prices.
Macro sentiment improvement: The Federal Reserve maintains interest rates unchanged, easing market concerns about aggressive rate hikes and providing short-term support for the metal sector.
Falling back under pressure
Fundamental suppression is evident: Indonesia’s nickel ore supply is tight but nickel iron production capacity remains high, and the global nickel market surplus pattern has not changed, suppressing price rebound.
Weak demand side: The stainless steel industry is cautious in procurement, the growth rate of new energy demand is slowing down, spot transactions are light, and nickel prices are fluctuating and weakening.
Macro level: intensifying overseas policy competition and interest rate differentiation
The implementation of the UK US trade agreement: The Trump administration has reached a new agreement with the UK, retaining the 10% benchmark tariff and eliminating steel and aluminum tariffs, but implementing tiered tariffs on automobile imports, and the risk of trade frictions still exists.
Global central bank policy divergence: The Federal Reserve maintains interest rates, but the Bank of England cuts interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25%, indicating differences in global monetary policy. The US dollar index is stronger, suppressing nickel prices.
The tariff game between China and the United States: If the United States imposes tariffs on new energy metals in China, it may further affect the flow of nickel trade and requires continuous attention.
Supply side: Indonesian policy disturbance, inventory depletion but surplus remains unchanged
Indonesia’s nickel ore supply is tight: The rainy season in May has affected mining, coupled with the addition of a 1.5% nickel product royalty fee, which has pushed up costs in the short term, but nickel iron prices are still under pressure.
Global inventory changes: LME nickel inventory decreased by 3648 tons per week (to 197670 tons), and overseas spot pressure slightly eased. Domestic nickel inventory in Shanghai decreased by 882 tons per week (to 23426 tons), and the pattern of oversupply has not been reversed.
Demand side: Low demand for stainless steel and insufficient support for new energy
The stainless steel market is weak: On May 9th, the spot price of stainless steel was reported at 13042.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.06% from the beginning of the month. Steel mills’ profits are under pressure, production schedules have decreased month on month, and nickel demand has been suppressed. Terminal consumption (construction, home appliances) has not shown any improvement, and the market’s willingness to purchase is sluggish.
Weakening demand for new energy: weak growth in orders from ternary precursor enterprises, followed by a decline in nickel sulfate prices, and the driving effect of new energy on nickel prices weakened.
Market forecast: Weakness in downstream demand, high inventory pressure, and macroeconomic uncertainty will hinder the upward trend; Cost support, overseas destocking, bottom support. Long and short positions are intertwined, and it is expected that nickel prices will maintain a range of fluctuations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on May 8th, the reference market price of cyclohexanone in Shandong Province, China was 7137 yuan/ton. Compared with April 30th (reference market price of cyclohexanone was 7637 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.55%.
From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that after the May Labor Day, the overall cyclohexanone market in Shandong Province, China, showed a downward trend. After the holiday, the trading of cyclohexanone in the market was light, and the market focus continued to adjust downwards. As of May 8th, the cyclohexanone market price in Shandong region is around 7100-7200 yuan/ton.
Market influencing factors
In terms of supply and demand: In the post holiday period, the supply side of the cyclohexanone market in Shandong has shown abundant performance, with some factories under pressure. Downstream demand has shown cautious performance, with overall weak demand and loose supply and demand transmission, providing insufficient market support.
In terms of cost: After the holiday, the raw material pure benzene market fluctuated and fell, providing weaker support for cyclohexanone. As of May 7th, the reference price of pure benzene was 5402 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.37% compared to May 1st (5708.67 yuan/ton).
Market analysis in the future
At present, the trading atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market is relatively weak, and the transmission of supply and demand is slow. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market price will mainly be weak, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand news.

On the first working day after the holiday, the domestic phenol market generally declined. According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, in the East China region, for example, the price of phenol was quoted at 6450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from before the holiday.
The raw material pure benzene has dropped significantly, with a bearish impact on the cost side. Terminal factories are mainly observing, with limited participation and a weak market trading atmosphere.
The domestic phenol ketone production rate is 75%, and the Sinopec Mitsui phenol ketone plant is operating at a reduced capacity after the holiday. Other factors are relatively stable. In the short term, both the cost and demand sides have performed poorly. It is expected that the phenol market will continue to be weak after the holiday, and there is a large upside down space in the market. This week, we will pay attention to the factory price adjustment situation.

In April 2025, the upstream raw material market price trend of viscose staple fiber will decline, the cost side support will be weak, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream cotton yarn enterprises will fade, the demand side fatigue will be difficult to change, the inventory level of viscose staple fiber market will continue to increase, the low-priced supply in the market will continue to increase, and the market price of viscose staple fiber will be lowered.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 30th, the average market price of viscose staple fiber was 13480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton from the previous month, with a monthly decline of 0.88%.
In terms of cost: During the month, the main raw material dissolution slurry market experienced a stepped decline, while the auxiliary material liquid alkali market and sulfuric acid market both entered a downward channel, and the cost center of gravity fell; The average production cost of viscose staple fibers has decreased.
Supply and demand: Some adhesive short fiber manufacturers have high inventory levels, and the operating load of their equipment has been reduced. The overall supply of the industry has significantly decreased, and the performance of the supply side is average; The demand in the terminal market has not shown any improvement, and the inventory of finished products in downstream yarn factories continues to accumulate, which slows down the consumption rate of raw materials. The operating rate of downstream cotton yarn market equipment continues to decline, and prices are falling. During the month, yarn factories mainly consumed raw material inventory, but limited orders were placed in the end market. As orders were delivered one after another, some yarn companies had plans to reduce production or switch production, resulting in a gradual decrease in demand for adhesive short fibers. Good support from the demand side was difficult to find, and the demand side dragged down the market trend.
Future forecast
Cost side: There is an expectation of reduced supply in the downstream adhesive short fiber market, which may lead to a decrease in demand for dissolving pulp. Therefore, it is expected that the dissolving pulp market will lack favorable support next month, and prices will run weakly.
On the supply and demand side: Currently, most regions have insufficient production of adhesive short fiber equipment. If the inventory on site remains high, it is expected that the supply of adhesive short fiber in the market may still decrease next month; Some downstream factories plan to stop production for the May Day holiday. If terminal demand remains weak, the holiday period for yarn factories may be extended, and there is a possibility of further reduction in demand for adhesive short fibers.
Overall, the upstream main raw material dissolution slurry market may not change much, and the industry inventory level is relatively high. In addition, there is no sign of improvement in downstream market demand. Under multiple negative factors, analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the domestic adhesive short fiber market prices will continue to be weak next month, with prices expected to be accepted at 12800-13400 yuan/ton.