1、 Price trend:
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According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic market of PA6 has continued to be weak recently, and the spot prices of various brands have been reduced to varying degrees. As of July 26, the mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 for China viscosity was about 15466.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.43% over the average price at the beginning of the month and 40.61% over the same period last year.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors:
In terms of upstream caprolactam, since mid July, the domestic spot price of caprolactam began to decline gradually in a narrow range. The main positive impact in the first ten days came from the supply side support. Recently, the price of international raw material pure benzene fluctuated downward. Previously, the pressure such as the expected new capacity of phase II of Zhejiang Petrochemical dragged down the pure benzene market, and the cost side support of domestic caprolactam was weakened. In terms of demand, the operating rate of downstream factories is generally not high, the market buying atmosphere is weak, and the operators have a heavy wait-and-see mentality. At present, the domestic demand for caprolactam follows up slowly and the cost support is weakened. It is expected that the price of caprolactam may be weak in the short term.
The price of upstream caprolactam weakened, the cost support of PA6 weakened, and the price fell with the upstream raw materials to a certain extent. At present, the overall load of domestic PA6 polymerization industry is relatively stable, with an average operating rate of about 60%. The lower compound avoids some supply pressure. It is heard that there is no significant warehouse building in the domestic warehouse inventory, and the supply side has some support for the spot. However, the market demand is still at the off-season level, the consumption of terminal enterprises is insufficient, the on-site wait-and-see atmosphere is heavy, and the actual trading is mostly early orders. Buyers are in the mood to offset the high price supply. The previous high offer in the first ten days was forced to fall back, and the downstream goods preparation operation is biased to just need replenishment to maintain production.
3、 Future forecast:
Business analysts believe that the recent narrow weakening of caprolactam in the upstream of PA6 has weakened the cost support of PA6. At present, although the operating rate of PA6 industry remains at a low level, the supply side support remains. However, the demand of end users is difficult to expand, and the resistance to on-site shipment increases. There is little trading in the market and the atmosphere is cold. It is expected that the spot price of PA6 may still weaken in a narrow range in the short term.
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