Monitoring shows that on April 11, Shanghai Rubber continued to rebound, closing at 13705 yuan / ton. The average spot market price of domestic natural rubber (standard I) in East China market was 12880 yuan / ton, which remained stable compared with the quotation on the previous trading day, with a year-on-year decrease of about 0.92%.
Key points of analysis: supply side: the recent continuous rainfall in domestic and foreign production areas affects the output of raw materials. At present, the global output is still at a low ebb. It is reported that the cutting is carried out in Southeast Asia, northeast Thailand and Vietnam, the rain in Yunnan production area of China is blocked, the rubber cutting is blocked in the first ten days, the trial cutting in individual areas in the southeast of Hainan production area, and the glue output is scarce. As of May 2023, the demand for raw materials and semi-finished tires in Shandong Province was significantly lower than that in the previous peak period, which was – 43.9% of the total number of enterprises in China. However, as of May 2024, the demand for raw materials and semi-finished tires in the sample area was largely affected by the epidemic, which was more than – 13.5% of the total number of enterprises in China. The operating rate of China’s all steel tire sample enterprises was 54.17%, with a month on month ratio of – 6.48% and a year-on-year ratio of – 24.22%. The operating rate will rise slightly after the Qingming holiday; Secondly, export demand fell, domestic shipments were blocked, and the inventory pressure of tire finished products increased. In terms of inventory: the inventory in Qingdao is in a state where the outbound volume is greater than the inbound volume. The arrival volume of natural rubber decreases, the inventory continues to decline slightly, the rhythm of accumulating inventory slows down, and the inventory elimination of rubber inventory has begun, but the process is slow. The total import and export of natural rubber was basically the same as that of Vietnam in January and March last year; A total of 270000 tons were exported to China, up 0.4% from 269000 tons last year.
Future forecast: at present, Shanghai and Jilin are greatly affected by public health events, and the production and marketing pressure of the two auto markets may be great in April; The prevention and control of the national situation is strict, and the obstruction of logistics and transportation has become a national problem. The natural rubber market is expected to maintain a weak trend of shock in the near future.
| Thiourea |