Commodity market: According to the monitoring of the business community, the spot mainstream market of natural rubber (Baodao full milk) in East China on November 18 was 12040 yuan/ton, up 0.08% from the previous trading day, down 10.42% year on year.
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Industrial factor: According to the monitoring of the business agency, since the price of natural latex fell to the annual lowest point of 11170 yuan/ton on October 31, the spot price of natural latex rebounded on the basis of the bottom range and driven by the futures market in November, rising by 4.42% in the first half of the year. In terms of spot goods, the supply side has a strong supply, the spot price of Thai rubber latex has dropped to a new low at the end of the year, the main domestic ports have imported rubber to the port, the inventory has continued to increase, and the spot circulation is abundant. From the demand side, the downstream tire enterprises have great pressure on tire supply, the finished products are stored in warehouses, and the domestic and foreign demand is sluggish. It is naturally difficult for the product enterprises to increase the purchase orders for raw rubber, and it will take time to improve the rubber procurement. Latex prices in Southeast Asian production areas, domestic markets and the US dollar rubber market are still hovering at a low range. Although rubber prices have rebounded, the turnover is relatively light. The market generally expects the supply impact of domestic adhesive tape to be cut off soon.
macroscopic:
On November 17, international crude oil futures fell sharply. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 81.64 dollars/barrel, down 3.95 dollars or 4.6%. WTI fell to the lowest point since October 3. According to the analysis, the signs of economic recession in Europe and the United States are becoming more and more clear, which may lead to a decline in global demand and become the shadow of the oil market for a long time. In the short term, OPEC still plays a leading role in regulating the slow growth of shale oil in the United States. In the later period, it does not rule out the possibility of continuing to reduce production, which will support oil prices. At the same time, the EU’s oil ban on Russia is coming into effect, and the expectation of tight supply is still in the short term. In general, the short-term supply and demand game in the oil market is intensified, which will maintain a volatile pattern; Medium to long term or facing downward pressure.
Industry hotspot:
1. According to the latest October report issued by ANRPC, the global gum output in October is expected to increase by 5.1% to 1.435 million tons, 3.2% higher than that of last month; The consumption of natural rubber is expected to increase by 1.2% to 1.301 million tons, an increase of 2.8% over the previous month. According to the report, after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points again in early November 2022 to combat inflation, the rise of the economy and borrowing costs may be restrained. It is expected that the global demand for natural rubber will slow down this year, but the global demand for natural rubber is expected to grow.
2. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in October 2022, China’s output of rubber tire casings was 73.216 million, a slight decrease of 0.2% year on year. From January to October, the output of rubber tire casing decreased by 3.7% over the same period of last year to 71286.7 million.
3. According to the latest data released by the China Automobile Association on October 10, China’s auto production and sales reached 2.599 million and 2.505 million respectively in October, down 2.7% and 4% month on month, up 11.1% and 6.9% year on year. From January to October, the production and sales of automobiles respectively reached 22.242 million and 21.975 million, up 7.9% and 4.6% year on year, and the growth rate was 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points higher than that from January to September. In October, the production and sales of passenger cars were 2.334 million and 2.231 million, down 3.1% and 4.3% month on month, up 16.9% and 10.7% year on year.
4. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on November 7, China imported 643000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in October 2022, an increase of 25.6% compared with 512000 tons in the same period in 2021. From January to October, China imported 5.861 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 7.1% compared with 5.475 million tons in the same period of 2021.
Future market forecast: according to the production law of natural rubber, the cutting of domestic full latex will be stopped successively next month. In the short term, it is difficult for natural rubber to rise substantially under the condition of loose spot supply and poor improvement of order demand; In the medium term, natural rubber is about to enter the annual low production area. The market expects that the cessation of cutting of domestic rubber is a very important positive factor for the market. According to the seasonal characteristics, upward price expectations are more common in the future market.
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