Price trend: Indonesian mineral prices support, nickel price center shifts upward
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, on June 9th, spot electrolytic nickel was reported at 124133 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.40%, showing a fluctuating upward trend. The benchmark price of nickel ore for domestic trade in Indonesia remains strong, with stable mining subsidies and limited downward space.
Macro: US policy disturbance, non farm payroll data exceeds expectations
1. Increased steel and aluminum tariffs: The United States has raised steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50%, and policy uncertainty may affect global metal trade flows.
2. Strong job market: In May, the United States added 139000 non farm jobs (expected to be 130000), and the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%. Hourly wages increased by 0.4% month on month (previously 0.2%), with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.9%, indicating that inflationary pressure still exists. Trump calls for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 100 basis points, but strong data may delay expectations of easing.
Supply side: Strong mineral prices vs. overcapacity
The supply of nickel ore still fluctuates, and the main mining areas in the Philippines have gradually emerged from the impact of the rainy season, but the shipment volume is still affected to some extent. The benchmark price of nickel ore for domestic trade in Indonesia is relatively strong, and the price of nickel ore at the markup in June is basically stable, with limited downward space in the future.
Global inventory changes: LME nickel inventory decreased by 288 tons per week (to 199092 tons), domestic Shanghai nickel inventory decreased by 865 tons per week (to 21192 tons), and the pattern of oversupply has not been reversed.
Capacity expansion: Macquarie analysts point out that the market is already in a state of oversupply, and multiple nickel projects in Indonesia are about to start production. Macquarie expects the oversupply to continue until 2027-2028.
Demand side: Low demand for stainless steel and insufficient support for new energy
Stainless steel market: On June 6th, the spot price of stainless steel was reported at 13175 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month. Some manufacturers in China and India have reduced production, but the pressure of accumulated inventory has not dissipated, and terminal demand is sluggish.
In the field of new energy, car companies are turning to vigorously build lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery factories, and the growth rate of demand for ternary batteries (NMC) is slowing down.
Market forecast: Indonesian mineral prices are supported, but demand is slowing down, inventory is under pressure, and nickel prices are hindered from rising. It is expected that nickel prices will remain in a range of fluctuations.
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