This month (5.1-5.29), the 1 # tin ingot market in East China saw a significant increase, with an average market price of 386910 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 424960 yuan/ton as of May 29th, an increase of 9.83%.
Supply and demand side
The core incentive for the sharp rise in tin prices in mid May came from the supply side. The resumption progress of tin mines in the Wa State of Myanmar continues to be lower than market expectations – previously, the market generally expected to resume mining in the second quarter, but the actual implementation has been repeatedly delayed. At the same time, the rainy season in Indonesia has affected the export of refined tin, and LME tin inventories have continued to decline in mid to early May, exacerbating concerns about raw material shortages. Funds quickly boosted the futures market, causing a brief reluctance to sell sentiment in the spot market.
The actual downstream consumption has not followed up. Solder companies and terminals (photovoltaic solder strips, consumer electronics) have extremely low acceptance of high prices and only maintain essential procurement. The slow depletion of social inventory indicates that weak demand is the fundamental constraint. The characteristic of low peak season runs through the entire month of May.
comprehensive analysis
Short term tin prices are likely to maintain a weak and volatile trend, and it is important to focus on the support strength of the 20 day moving average (approximately 422000 yuan/ton). If the support is effective, the price may fluctuate and consolidate within the range of 410000 to 43000 yuan/ton; If it falls below this support, it may further explore the early platform around 400000. Looking ahead to June and the third quarter, tin prices are likely to enter a period of oscillation and bottoming out.
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