Market trend
In the past week (July 8-14), the domestic PA6 market has shown a pattern of “stable at the beginning and rising later”. The price remained stable at 11833.33 yuan/ton in the early stage, and on July 14th, it increased by 2.54% to 12133.33 yuan/ton. From the perspective of price range, the price positions on the 10th, 20th, and 30th have risen to “high levels”, while the positions on the 60th and 90th are still at “medium low levels”, and the annual position is at the “middle level”. It is worth noting that there have been signals of “10 day breakout above the 20/30 day moving average” and “10/20/30 day super rise” on the technical side, indicating a strong short-term upward momentum and pressure for technical correction.
influencing factors
Cost side
The upstream raw material caprolactam (CPL) market has recently been affected by strong fluctuations in the prices of pure benzene and crude oil, resulting in an increase in the cost center. Part of the caprolactam factories have increased their prices, which has squeezed the production profit margin of polymerized PA6 chips. Under the cost transmission mechanism, PA6 manufacturers are forced to follow up and increase their quotations to pass on the increasing cost pressure. The current strength of raw material prices provides strong support for the bottom of PA6.
Supply and demand side
On the supply side, some PA6 production facilities have undergone maintenance and load reduction, resulting in a slight decline in overall industry production and limited increase in market supply. Some factories have increased their willingness to raise prices, while their willingness to sell at low prices has weakened, providing support for spot goods. On the demand side, downstream spinning and modification factories are still in the traditional off-season, and terminal orders have not yet rebounded on a large scale. However, with low raw material prices in the early stage, downstream enterprises have increased their willingness to replenish inventory at low prices, and the volume of essential purchases has slightly increased compared to the previous period. However, the follow-up efforts of the terminal are limited, and the purchasing sentiment is cautious in pursuing price increases at high prices.
Future forecast
It is expected that PA6 will experience strong fluctuations in the short term in the future market. The strong pattern of upstream caprolactam continues, with stable cost support; The pressure on factory inventory has eased, and manufacturers have a strong mentality of raising prices. However, downstream demand during the off-season is difficult to release quickly, and there is resistance to high price transmission. The momentum for sustained and significant price surges is insufficient, and after the rebound, there may be a period of consolidation and oscillation. Focus on tracking the price trend of caprolactam, factory maintenance plans, and downstream autumn and winter order follow-up.
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