In July, domestic nitrile rubber ended its downward trend in June and emerged from a rebound trend. As of July 23rd, the price was 16725 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.65% from 16150 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. As of July 23rd, Lanhua Nitrile N41E in East China offered a price range of 16900 to 17100 yuan/ton; The mainstream price for 2665 in Russia is 15800 to 16000 yuan/ton.
Upstream raw material butadiene saw a significant increase, while acrylonitrile first fell and then rose. The production cost of nitrile increased significantly, driving up bullish sentiment among traders. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 23, the price of butadiene was 10533 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.80% from 8866 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of July 23rd, the price of acrylonitrile was 9950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.32% from 10083 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
There is marginal contraction on the supply side. In July, Lanzhou Petrochemical’s nitrile plant started its annual maintenance, and the domestic industry’s operating rate fell from 75% in June to around 68%, leading to a tightening of market supply. After continuous destocking in the first half of the year, social inventory remained relatively low for the year, and traders were reluctant to sell at low prices, further boosting spot prices and improving market transactions with a small amount of speculative replenishment.
At present, it is in the traditional off-season for rubber and plastic products, and the average operating rate of downstream automotive seals and oil resistant rubber hose enterprises for nitrile is maintained at a low level of 45% -52%. The increase in terminal vehicle matching orders is limited; The rubber glove industry mainly relies on on-demand procurement and lacks the power to replenish inventory on a large scale. The market transactions are mostly for orders from small and medium-sized enterprises, making it difficult to support a sustained and significant increase in prices.
Market forecast:
Nitrile rubber experienced a continuous decline for three months in the early stage, and the price was found to be at a low level in early July. Recently, the market has stopped falling and rebounded, and the current price is approaching the 10 day and 20 day moving averages. The short-term moving average is gradually leveling off from a downward trend and showing signs of turning, indicating a significant decline in downward momentum. The current price is supported by the short-term moving average, forming a preliminary pattern of stopping the decline. The primary pressure above is located in the dense range of the previous moving average, and if the volume can be matched, it is expected to continue the rebound; If the rebound is weak, there is still a risk of a second bottoming out.
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