Aluminum prices have risen this week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 13, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20740 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.15% from the market average price of 20303.33 yuan/ton on June 1.
Fundamental Overview
Currently in the off-season of demand, downstream operating rates are low, and the supply and demand of aluminum ingots are relatively weak.
On the supply side, the operational capacity of electrolytic aluminum has slightly increased, resulting in a slight increase in output. As of June 12th, the weekly production of mainstream domestic manufacturers remained around 843000 tons.
On the demand side, during the off-season of traditional consumption, the demand for building profiles, home appliances, and other products is relatively weak. Although new energy vehicles can drive some of the demand, the photovoltaic market has experienced a decline in production and overall demand growth is weak.
On the cost side, the price of alumina has fallen, and the cost center of electrolytic aluminum has shifted downwards, weakening the support for aluminum prices.
Social inventory: Currently, the social inventory of aluminum ingots is relatively low and in a state of destocking. As of June 12th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in mainstream consumption areas in China was 463000 tons, a decrease of 18000 tons from the beginning of this week; A decrease of 45000 tons compared to June 5th.
Recent upward momentum
During the export window period after tariff adjustment in June, the rush to export will provide some support for aluminum prices.
Future expectations
At present, the market trading logic tends to be macro oriented, and may later shift to fundamentals. With the expectation of a subsequent consumption off-season, the upward space for aluminum prices will narrow.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on June 12th, the reference price of cyclohexanone in the domestic Shandong region was 7300 yuan/ton. Compared with June 1st, the price was basically the same, but decreased by 4.42% compared with May 1st (cyclohexanone price reference).
From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that this week, the domestic cyclohexanone market in Shandong Province has been mainly consolidating and operating, with little fluctuation in the cyclohexanone market. The market news is relatively calm, and the transmission of cyclohexanone supply and demand is stable. As of June 12th, the cyclohexanone market price in Shandong Province is around 7250-7350 yuan/ton.
Fundamental situation
In terms of supply and production: Currently, the production rate of cyclohexanone in the market is around 68%, and there is not much overall adjustment in production. Currently, the trend of cyclohexanone integration in China is more obvious, with more supporting facilities for production, and the overall supply of cyclohexanone is relatively abundant.
On the demand side: Currently, downstream users of cyclohexanone purchase on demand, and the downstream inquiry atmosphere is still acceptable. The demand side performance is also relatively stable.
In terms of cost: Currently, the market for pure benzene, a cost end product of cyclohexanone, is fluctuating and rising, providing stable cost support for cyclohexanone. As of June 11th, the reference price of pure benzene was 5955.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.84% compared to June 1st (5735.33 yuan/ton).
Market analysis in the future
At present, the atmosphere of inquiries in the cyclohexanone market is quiet and mild, and downstream markets are mainly in urgent need of goods. The cost side provides good support for the market. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the short-term cyclohexanone market will mainly operate steadily with small to medium growth, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

Recently (6.1~6.11), the butadiene rubber market has fluctuated and weakened. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of June 11, the butadiene rubber market price in East China was 11650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.18% from 11910 yuan/ton on the 1st. The price of raw material butadiene continues to decline, and the cost center of butadiene rubber shifts downwards; Shunding rubber production slightly decreased, easing supply pressure; Downstream tire production slightly decreased, providing support for the demand for butadiene rubber. As of June 11th, the mainstream prices in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze Shunding in East China were reported at 11550-11800 yuan/ton.
Recently (6.1~6.11), the price of butadiene has continued to decline, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has shifted downwards. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 11th, the price of butadiene was 9350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.94% from 9733 yuan/ton on the 1st.
Recently (6.1~6.11), domestic companies such as Haopu and Yanshan have stopped maintenance of their butadiene rubber plants, and the production rate of butadiene rubber plants in China has dropped to around 6.70%, which has eased the pressure on the supply side of butadiene rubber.
On the demand side, the recent (6.1~6.11) slight decrease in downstream tire production has provided strong support for the demand in the butadiene rubber market. As of June 8th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.3%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 6.3%. As of the week of June 8th, domestic tire companies had 42 days of finished steel tire inventory, which remained unchanged on a week on week basis; The inventory of semi-finished steel tires remained unchanged on a week on week basis for 46 days.
Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the raw material butadiene market will return to weakness, and the cost support for butadiene rubber will weaken; Downstream production has slightly decreased, and the production of butadiene rubber equipment has also slightly decreased. Overall, it is expected that the butadiene rubber market will be mainly weakly consolidated in the later stage.

1、 Market price trend
Affected by the supply and demand situation, the price of acrylic acid in the market continued to decline this week. The specific price data may vary by region and different specifications, but the overall trend is downward. As of June 10th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6833.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.77% compared to the beginning of this month (7833.33 yuan/ton).
2、 Supply situation
The load of the acrylic acid production plant has remained stable recently, which means that the supply in the market has not decreased due to production issues. However, this may also lead to the gradual accumulation of finished product inventory in the market.
Although the production equipment load is stable, the finished product inventory in the acrylic acid market is being digested. This may be due to a rebound in downstream demand or corresponding inventory management measures taken by manufacturers. However, the speed of inventory digestion may still be insufficient to prevent a decline in market prices.
The continuous low price of propylene has weakened cost support, and the room for enterprises to lower prices has expanded. As of June 10th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6533.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.08% compared to the beginning of this month (6538.25 yuan/ton).
3、 Weak demand side
Downstream industries are weakening: The demand for end use applications (such as coatings, adhesives, textiles, etc.) is sluggish, especially in industries such as construction and automobiles, which have experienced a decline in business prosperity, leading to a low willingness to purchase.
Export restrictions: Shrinking demand in overseas markets or trade barriers (such as anti-dumping) may suppress exports and exacerbate domestic oversupply.
4、 Future forecast
It is expected that the domestic acrylic acid market will maintain a weak consolidation trend in the short term. This is mainly due to weak downstream demand and relatively stable supply in the market. Therefore, until there are obvious favorable factors, it may be difficult for the price of acrylic acid in the market to rebound significantly. However, it should also be noted that the market is always full of variables, and any policy adjustments, industry dynamics, or macroeconomic changes may have an impact on market prices.
In summary, the acrylic acid market continued its downward trend this week, mainly due to the results of the supply-demand game. In a situation where supply is relatively stable but demand is weak, it is difficult for market prices to rebound significantly. Therefore, cargo holders and downstream users need to closely monitor market dynamics and industry changes in order to develop reasonable procurement and sales strategies.

Price trend: Indonesian mineral prices support, nickel price center shifts upward
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, on June 9th, spot electrolytic nickel was reported at 124133 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.40%, showing a fluctuating upward trend. The benchmark price of nickel ore for domestic trade in Indonesia remains strong, with stable mining subsidies and limited downward space.
Macro: US policy disturbance, non farm payroll data exceeds expectations
1. Increased steel and aluminum tariffs: The United States has raised steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50%, and policy uncertainty may affect global metal trade flows.
2. Strong job market: In May, the United States added 139000 non farm jobs (expected to be 130000), and the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%. Hourly wages increased by 0.4% month on month (previously 0.2%), with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.9%, indicating that inflationary pressure still exists. Trump calls for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 100 basis points, but strong data may delay expectations of easing.
Supply side: Strong mineral prices vs. overcapacity
The supply of nickel ore still fluctuates, and the main mining areas in the Philippines have gradually emerged from the impact of the rainy season, but the shipment volume is still affected to some extent. The benchmark price of nickel ore for domestic trade in Indonesia is relatively strong, and the price of nickel ore at the markup in June is basically stable, with limited downward space in the future.
Global inventory changes: LME nickel inventory decreased by 288 tons per week (to 199092 tons), domestic Shanghai nickel inventory decreased by 865 tons per week (to 21192 tons), and the pattern of oversupply has not been reversed.
Capacity expansion: Macquarie analysts point out that the market is already in a state of oversupply, and multiple nickel projects in Indonesia are about to start production. Macquarie expects the oversupply to continue until 2027-2028.
Demand side: Low demand for stainless steel and insufficient support for new energy
Stainless steel market: On June 6th, the spot price of stainless steel was reported at 13175 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month. Some manufacturers in China and India have reduced production, but the pressure of accumulated inventory has not dissipated, and terminal demand is sluggish.
In the field of new energy, car companies are turning to vigorously build lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery factories, and the growth rate of demand for ternary batteries (NMC) is slowing down.
Market forecast: Indonesian mineral prices are supported, but demand is slowing down, inventory is under pressure, and nickel prices are hindered from rising. It is expected that nickel prices will remain in a range of fluctuations.