Price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, ABS market rose first and then fell in the first half of April, and the price of each brand product rose and fell. As of April 14, the mainstream ABS offer of general-purpose ABS fell below the level of the beginning of the month. At present, the average price is about 18250 yuan / ton, which is 0.27% lower than the average price level in early April, with a 60.09% increase year on year.

Factor analysis:

In terms of raw materials, styrene has been operated in the first ten days of April. The positive effects of macro inflation and domestic demand expectations still play a role in the market. In addition, the enterprise equipment was overhauled at the end of last month, and the replenishment volume at the end of the month, many factors stabilized the styrene market. But domestic supply has recovered at the beginning of the month, which has depressed spot prices on the site. Port cargo also has the operation of warehouse, leading to weak operation of the inventory. The recent futures rise has boosted spot, small single trading is more smooth, styrene is expected to stop falling up.

In the case of butadiene, the market has been down in the near future, and the price has fallen again and again. The closing price of the external market declined significantly, and the factory quotation of major manufacturers was continuously lowered. Domestic spot supply is still relatively abundant, some suppliers continue to give way to the single operation, the center of offer is down. Although some businesses are affected by the high cost of holding positions and not intended to be lower, the market investment power is slightly insufficient under the drag of supply side. The butadiene market will be in a downturn in the short term.

At present, the overall trend of ABS cost end is not good, and the support for ABS spot price is weakened. The current market continues the supply increase in the petrochemical industry due to the high opening rate of petrochemical enterprises last month. But in the late last month, the demand of household appliances industry was large, which eased the contradiction between supply and demand, and stabilized the basic aspect of ABS. With the further abundant supply of goods in the site and the strengthening of market competition, the purchasing side’s resistance to high price goods gradually increases. In recent 50 days, ABS market is in cyclical vibration, and the price amplitude range is not large. The business agency data division thinks that the current ABS market is generally in the high-level and stable order and operation of supply and demand law.

Post market forecast:

Analysts from business society think: ABS market in early April rose and fell back to the early month level. The trend of raw materials is weak, and the support for ABS cost side is weakened. The continuous high construction rate in the near future has completely improved the early shortage pattern, and also strengthened the competition in the field. At present, the goods in the site are abundant, and the downstream factory needs to purchase for maintenance. The increase of buyers’ resistance is the main factor of price decline in recent two days. It is expected that domestic ABS prices will maintain high prices.

The MTBE market rose steadily and the price broke through the 6000 yuan / ton mark. According to business news agency data, as of April 12, the price of MTBE was 6016 yuan / ton, up 5.19% month on month and 73.56% year on year.

Brent crude oil rose slightly, and gasoline prices also rose slightly, giving a certain impetus to MTBE market. In addition, due to the recent overhaul of Yuhuang plant, the spot supply in Shandong is limited, which is supported by many favorable factors, and merchants actively explore the rise.

As for the external market, as of April 9, the FOB Gulf price of the United States closed at 208.16-208.26 cents / gallon (738.97-739.32 US dollars / ton), the FOB ara of Europe closed at 688-688.5 US dollars / ton, and the FOB Singapore of Asia closed at 711-713 US dollars / ton.

Region, country, closing price, up and down

Asia ﹣ FOB Singapore ﹣ 694.5-696.5 USD / T – 3.5 USD / T

U.S. $738.97-739.32/t

Europe ﹣ FOB Ara ﹣ 678.75-679.25 USD / T-2 USD / T

Recently, the demand of main business units has increased slightly, and the demand of refining rigidity is still there. At present, the equipment maintenance in some areas of China has limited spot resources, and the merchants are willing to support the market. MTBE analysts of business news agency believe that the domestic MTBE market will rise in a narrow range in the short term.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of business club’s block list, in early April, the domestic PA6 market generally fell at a high level, and the spot price mostly dropped. As of April 12, the mainstream offer price of sample enterprises for CNMC 2.75-2.85 was about 14800 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.33% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a rise of 42.31% compared with the same period last year.

2、 The influencing factors were analyzed

In terms of upstream caprolactam, in the first half of last month, the tightening of external petrochemical industrial chain supply gradually exhausted the positive effect on caprolactam, and the price began to fall after reaching the high point of the range in the middle of the month. In the first ten days of this month, the domestic spot price of caprolactam continued to callback. According to the data of business news agency, the domestic average price was 13100 yuan / ton before publishing. The supply side continued to be abundant. Although the support from the cost side was still strong, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market put pressure on the market. At present, the operating rate of domestic caprolactam manufacturers is still high, and the on-site supply may continue to accumulate. Next, we will enter the peak maintenance season. However, in order to ease the current situation of oversupply, we need to wait for the major factories to start maintenance in late April. It is suggested that we should pay close attention to the manufacturers’ maintenance plans in the near future.

The price of caprolactam continued to fall, the cost support of PA6 was weakened, and the market continued to decline. At present, the decline of PA6 market has lasted for more than a month. In addition to the weakening of upstream price, another important factor comes from PA6 industry itself. At present, domestic PA6 supply is strong, demand is weak, market transaction power is insufficient, and trading is poor, which is a drag on the focus of offer. Traders and factories began to accumulate inventory, and the high inventory and the drop of spot reduced the profit of polymerization plant. Recently, the profit situation of domestic polymerization plants is not good, and most manufacturers have negative profit situation, which leads to the passive reduction of negative profit of some units. At present, the operating rate of the industry has dropped to 70%, and it is likely to continue to decline.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe: in early April, the upstream caprolactam of PA6 continued the previous correction and continued to go down, and the cost support of PA6 was weakened. At present, the purchase intention of PA6 downstream plants is not strong, the wait-and-see atmosphere is rising, and the overall demand is weak. Businesses actively let profits go, while the industry passively reduces its burden. Overall, the current fundamentals of PA6 are mainly negative, and it is expected that the price of PA6 will continue to decline.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market continued to rise slightly in early April. At the beginning of ten days, the price was 7944 yuan / ton, and at the end of ten days (April 9), the price was 8228 yuan / ton, with an increase of 3.57%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business association, the price of propylene decreased sharply in the second half of March and rose at the end of the month. At the beginning of April, the market price rose slowly, with an average daily increase of about 50 yuan / ton. From the beginning of June, the price rose steadily. Today, most of the prices rose by 50 yuan / ton. Now, the market transaction is between 8200 and 8400 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 8200 yuan / ton. U.S. propylene on April 1, down on the domestic market may have a certain impact. Propylene prices in Asia have declined slightly in recent days, which will also have a certain impact on the propylene market. Propylene market is now no pressure inventory, part of the device is still in repair.

Recently, the international crude oil market has witnessed constant events, and the price fluctuated. On April 8, the crude oil price rose slightly, which had little impact on the propylene market.

The price of PP remained stable in this ten day period, and declined after rising at the end of the ten day period. The ten day increase was 0.19%, and the ten day amplitude was 0.56%. The futures market was cold and had limited impact on propylene.

Acrylic acid prices fell sharply in this ten day period, with a drop of 8.31% in this ten day period, which had a significant negative impact on propylene.

The market of propylene oxide rebounded after a decline in this ten day period, with a decline of 1.09% in ten day period and an amplitude of 2.55% in ten day period, which has a small suppressing effect on propylene.

The market of epichlorohydrin fell down and became stable after rising in this ten day period, with a ten day increase of 1.32% and a ten day amplitude of 3.16%, which had little impact on propylene.

The domestic n-butanol price fluctuated downward in this ten day period, with a ten day decrease of 3.64% and a ten day amplitude of 4.55%, which had a certain suppressive effect on the propylene market.

The price of isooctanol rose after a decline in this ten day period, with a decline of 0.27% in ten day period and a range of 3.46% in ten day period. The impact on propylene was limited.

Isopropanol prices declined slightly in this ten day period, with a 10 day decrease of 1.86%, which had a small negative impact on propylene.

The price of phenol in East China rose slightly in this ten day period, with a ten day increase of 1.64%, which had a slight positive effect on propylene.

In East China acetone market, the quotation of manufacturers declined in this ten day period, with a decline of 4.45% in this ten day period, which has a negative impact on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

The propylene analyst of business society chemical branch thinks: Overall, the international production has recovered slightly, the domestic inventory is not much, some units are overhauled, the crude oil market has risen slightly, and the downstream operating rate is acceptable, but the market is mainly stable, with a slight negative trend. The polypropylene market is general, and the acrylic acid market has declined more, but the crude oil still plays a strong role. It is expected that the market will continue to follow the crude oil market in the future The situation fluctuates, and it is possible to continue to rise slightly.

Spot price: according to the price monitoring of the business community, the domestic staple fiber quotation on April 8 was 7018 yuan, down 1.47% from last week.

Futures market: on April 8, the futures price of the pf2105 contract closed at 6918, down 1.93% from the previous trading day, with a settlement price of 6974 yuan, a trading volume of 116465 and a base of 82068 positions. Domestic polyester industry chain futures closed down one after another, with PTA in the upstream industry chain down 2.97% and ethylene glycol down 2.19%.

Analysis and Forecast: the international oil price shocks, PTA, glycol, staple fiber industry chain since last week a small rebound. PTA earlier accumulated rebound is larger, today’s callback is also larger. Ethylene glycol also lacks the power to continue to rise, so it will be back today. Staple fiber prices have fallen sharply since March, downstream mills, trade intermediaries low position, staple fiber recent rebound. However, there is no obvious improvement in downstream orders, the willingness to replenish is weakening, and the wait-and-see mood is strong. Today, the price of staple fiber is weak, rebounding and then falling. In the future, the accumulation pressure of short-term polyester staple fiber is still in, or still weak shock. However, in the medium term, after the inventory is slowly consumed, with the advent of a new purchasing cycle in the downstream, the kinetic energy of the decline of polyester staple fiber will be weakened, and the crude oil is expected to rebound when it is stable.