1、 Price quotation

According to the data of business news agency, the spot price of cotton rose after the Qingming Festival holiday, and the price of 3128b on the 7th was about 15389 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

Domestic: it is reported that China’s cotton price index 3128b was 15383 yuan / ton on the 7th. According to the data of the national cotton market monitoring system, as of April 2, the national new cotton sales rate was 85.1%, increased by 2.9% on a month on month basis, of which Xinjiang cotton sales rate was 85.0%, increased by 3% on a month on month basis; the national cumulative sales of lint was 5.058 million tons, increased by 169 thousand tons on a month on month basis. The increase of weekly sales data shows that the market demand is still growing, especially in the peak production season of textile enterprises, and the downstream demand has support.

International: ice cotton market rose sharply on June 6. The settlement price of the main contract in May was 79.22 cents, up 134 points; the settlement price of the contract in July was 80.47 cents, up 129 points; the settlement price of the contract in December was 79.41 cents, up 154 points; other contracts were up 91-138 points.

Futures: April 6 Zheng cotton main contract 2105 contract rose 2.13%. April 7 Zheng cotton main contract 2105 contract rose 0.37%.

3、 Downstream industry chain

Recently, after a round of decline in cotton prices, enterprises lack confidence in purchasing, and purchasing strength is declining. With the gradual stabilization of cotton prices, raw material inventory is gradually declining, and the production peak season is superimposed, enterprise purchasing will also be gradually launched. At present, the trading volume of cotton yarn and grey fabric market remains light, the pure cotton yarn market is not good as a whole, the cotton yarn inventory of yarn mills continues to accumulate, but it is still at a low level, and the load is mainly stable.

According to statistics, from January to February, the output of chemical fiber, yarn, cloth and clothing of Enterprises above designated size increased by 32.5%, 45.9%, 24.1% and 38.4% year-on-year respectively, and the growth rate was 46.1%, 85.3%, 60.1% and 75.0 percentage points higher than that of the same period of last year respectively. From January to February, China’s textile and clothing exports reached US $46.1 billion, up 55.0% year on year. The data of the first two months shows that the export growth of the textile industry has increased significantly. At present, the cotton fundamentals maintain a healthy operation. By the end of February, the national cotton commercial inventory was 5.0472 million tons. It is expected that the cotton position will fluctuate upward in the later period.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of April 6, the comprehensive price of PC market was 27800.00 yuan / ton. The price of PC market continued to move at a high level, and the price continued to rise. Compared with the same period of this month, the price increased by 5.84%, up to 1600 yuan / ton.

The domestic PC market fluctuated and went up, the price continued to be high, the raw material bisphenol a market still went up, the PC cost formed a certain support, the price continued to rise, the overall market transaction atmosphere was cautious, the industry held a cautious wait-and-see attitude, appeared reluctant to sell psychology, it is expected that the PC market will still maintain the upward trend in the next week, manufacturers passively support the price, difficult to have a downward trend.

The price of upstream bisphenol a continued to rise, and there was still a rising trend expectation. The reference price was 27800-28000 yuan / ton, the inventory remained low, and the supply side was tight. On April 6, the commodity index of bisphenol A was 265.69, up 5.52 points from yesterday, a record high in the cycle, up 268.55% from the lowest point of 72.09 on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from March 1, 2020 to now).

Business community PC analysts believe that: raw materials continue to rise, PC cost support strong, short-term upward trend. (to get more information about goods and to grasp the price of goods, welcome to subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community).

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, pure benzene stopped falling this week and the price showed an upward trend. On March 28, the price of pure benzene was 5953-6350 yuan / ton (average price was 6280 yuan / ton); on Sunday (April 4), the price of pure benzene was 6450-6650 yuan / ton (average price was 6520 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 240 yuan / ton or 3.82% compared with last week, and 169.42% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, pure benzene continued to follow the trend of styrene, and the price rose. The price of EPS, PS and ABS in the downstream of styrene recovered, the price of styrene also rose rapidly, and the price of pure benzene rose along with the trend. During the week, Petronas and Japan’s ENEOS units were shut down, and the price of pure benzene in Asia rose, supporting the domestic pure benzene market. This week, East China port inventory continued to decline, is still in the channel to the warehouse. This week, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene increased by 150 yuan / ton to 6500 yuan / ton, and the listed price of some refineries in North China increased by 300 yuan / ton to 6450 yuan / ton.

In terms of external market, the reference price of pure benzene in South Korea market on Thursday (April 1) was 856.67 US dollars / ton, up 38.34 US dollars / ton or 4.69% from March 26, and the reference price of import in East China was 865 US dollars / ton, up 35.5 US dollars / ton or 4.28% from March 26.

In terms of crude oil, OPEC + decided to gradually increase crude oil production from May, and Saudi Arabia will gradually reduce the number of additional voluntary production cuts. On March 26, Brent fell $1.61 per barrel, or 2.52%; WTI rose $0.52 per barrel, or 0.85%.

Downstream: styrene: the sharp drop in crude oil helped styrene fall to near the cash flow. With strong support from the cost side, the price of styrene stopped falling and rebounded. With strong expectation from the cost side, short supply at the end of the month, goods preparation during the Qingming holiday and tight spot supply in April, the market bull confidence was boosted and the price of styrene rebounded. On April 4, the price of sample enterprises was 9016.67 yuan / ton, up 7.77% from last week, and 91.84% from the same period last year.

Aniline: aniline stopped rising and turned down this week. The price of downstream polymerization MDI fell, the profit margin narrowed, the resistance to high price aniline was strong, and the follow-up was general. In addition, a 200000 t / a plant in Jinling Dongying will be restarted, and the 100000 t / a aniline plant in Dongying Huatai will be restarted soon, so the market supply is expected to increase. Market participants were short of outlook, and aniline prices fell during the week. On April 4, the price of aniline in Shandong was 13000-13200 yuan / ton, while that in Nanjing was 13000-13500 yuan / ton, down 7.14% from last week and up 143.75% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, although OPEC + decided to increase production, the market is still optimistic about the future demand prospect of oil market, and crude oil inventory may gradually enter the process of depolarization in the second quarter. Biden’s Government previously launched a $1.9 trillion stimulus plan, and is currently brewing $2.3 trillion in infrastructure stimulus measures. With the acceleration of vaccination in Europe, the economy will gradually enter the recovery track.

Downstream: styrene, the main downstream product: from the supply side, in April, domestic styrene factories had more maintenance, and the new production capacity will be offset by the reduced production capacity. Domestic supply may increase limited, and the pressure is not big. In addition, the import volume of terminals will maintain the low level of the contract. On the demand side, the overall operating rate of the downstream is acceptable, and the demand for styrene remains rigid, but the demand side has not recovered. Crude oil is still expected to pick up in the later stage, pure benzene in the cost side is basically good, ethylene is temporarily stable, styrene cost support is acceptable, and styrene is expected to continue to run with strong oscillation in the short term.

In the later stage, the amount of pure benzene arriving at the port is still limited, the port is still in the channel of destocking, the enterprise inventory is not high, and the pressure of shipment is not high. Short term pure benzene is expected to follow crude oil, styrene market fluctuations. With the entrance of new styrene plant, the demand for pure benzene has a certain support. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market, domestic and foreign pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, the impact of external market trends on the price of pure benzene.

1、 Melamine price trend

(Figure: p-value curve of melamine products)

2、 Market analysis

Melamine market showed an upward trend in March. According to the monitoring sample data of the business community, as of March 31, the average quotation price of melamine enterprises was 8716.67 yuan / ton, which was 15.20% higher than that on March 1, 19.95% higher than that on March 1, and 62.42% higher than that on the same period last year.

In the first ten days of March, the supply side of manufacturers was tight, the downstream enterprises started to recover gradually, the demand gradually improved, and the price went up. However, as the price rose to a high level, the downstream was cautious about high price, mainly purchasing on demand, and the market was stable. In the middle of the month, the atmosphere of new orders in the market was weak, sales were under pressure, and the market was weak With multiple support of replenishment demand, the market has a strong rising atmosphere, and the market is strong and upward.

For upstream urea, in March 2021, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong first fell and then rose. In March, the average ex factory quotation price of mainstream urea manufacturers in Shandong fell from 2183.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2070.00 yuan / ton on March 15, down 5.19%, and then rose to 2170.00 yuan / ton on March 31, up 4.83%.. On the whole, the urea market in Shandong fell slightly in March.

3、 Future forecast

Melamine analysts of business news agency believe that the price of upstream urea fell in April, and the cost support was slightly weak. However, the manufacturers, with the support of orders received in advance, were able to take delivery of the products. It is expected that the domestic melamine market may be high in the short term, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in raw material prices and market information guidance.

Price trend:

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the ABS market was first depressed and then rose in March, and the spot price position fell as a whole. As of April 1, the mainstream offer price of general ABS was about 18300 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.14% compared with the average price level in early March, and a rise of 68.66% compared with the same period last year.

Factor analysis:

After the upstream styrene entered March, the chemical industry sector showed a trend of first rising and then falling. The advantages of the early crude oil surge and the tight supply caused by external emergencies were exhausted, and the styrene price fell this month. In addition, the macro inflation and the expected increase of domestic demand in the early stage are still acting on the market. In addition, the recent device maintenance and replenishment at the end of the month, although the long and short struggle, but still stop falling in the last ten days and began to rebound, it is expected that styrene will be slightly stronger in the short term.

Compared with styrene, butadiene, on the other hand, went out of the opposite market. In the first half of this month, the domestic butadiene market remained strong at a high level with a positive trend. At the end of this month, the spot price suddenly fell. In the early stage, the international crude oil price continued to rise, which saved the butadiene market at the beginning of the new year. In March, we heard that the export of domestic products increased, which strengthened the market confidence. The supply of goods continued to warm up and reached a critical point at the end of the month, resulting in the contradiction between supply and demand. Merchants actively ship goods, and the market mentality tends to be short-term bearish. Butadiene is expected to continue to decline in the near future, looking for market equilibrium.

At present, the price of ABS at the cost side fluctuates. The spot price of ABS continues to fall in the first half of this month, and rebounds in the second half of this month. In March, the operating rate of petrochemical enterprises was high, and the plant was close to full load operation. In terms of supply, the domestic production of ABS this month is more than 360000 tons, and the supply on site is relatively abundant. The market competition is strengthened, and the buyer’s resistance to high price goods is increased. In addition, the price position of ABS was higher due to the favorable situation in the upstream, the downstream factories just needed to operate the replenishment, the demand kinetic energy was insufficient, and the social inventory began to rise. But gradually entering the peak demand season, the home appliance industry began to make efforts in the latter half of the year, stabilizing the demand side of ABS, and the spot price immediately stopped falling and rebounded.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: ABS market fell at a high level in March, and recovered at the end of the month. The trend of cost side is different, and the support for ABS cost side is general. The continuous high opening rate eased the tight supply side in the early stage, and the current spot supply has warmed up. Downstream factories maintain rigid demand procurement, and the demand has increased at the end of the month. However, judging from the market performance this week, the resistance of downstream factories to high price supply is still heavy. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic ABS price will remain stable.