According to the commodity index system of business community, the natural rubber commodity index on March 31 was 39.00, down 1.37 points from yesterday, down 61.00% from the highest point of 100.00 points in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 42.96% from the lowest point of 27.28 points on April 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Data monitoring shows that in the first quarter of 2021, natural rubber showed a trend of rise and fall, and February 25 was the watershed of this round of market. Among them, from January to February 25, natural rubber fluctuated upward, especially after the Spring Festival holiday to February 25, natural rubber domestic all latex (Baodao) rose from 13000 yuan / ton to 16287 yuan / ton, up by 25%; then, affected by about four times of downward shocks of crude oil, natural rubber, as a futures commodity, weakened, and by March 31, the downward range was as high as 19.25% About 13150 yuan / ton of rubber is reported. According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price of domestic natural rubber latex was 16287 yuan / ton on February 25, breaking through 16000 yuan / ton, which was the highest in three years since 2018, up about 25% from 13000 yuan / ton on January 1, 2021, while the last high was 19800 yuan / ton on February 10, 2017.

Natural rubber was obviously affected by the sharp rise and fall of crude oil in this quarter: the sharp rise from February 18 to 25 was also due to the sharp rise of crude oil. On the basis of the lowest annual supply of natural rubber and the gradual recovery of downstream construction, natural rubber rose sharply driven by the upsurge of market atmosphere; also due to the guidance of crude oil, crude oil prices experienced three sharp rises in March Diving, respectively, on the 9th, 18th and 23rd, natural rubber fell about 14%.

However, due to a small amount of tapping in the main natural rubber producing areas in China, although the official tapping was delayed due to severe insect pests in Yunnan, the weather in Hainan this year is good, and some of them have been tapping. Although the quantity is small, under the following good weather, a large number of domestic new rubber may be launched in the middle and late April. Although the main production areas in Southeast Asia still stop cutting season, it is not far away from the opening of new rubber for more than a month. The market is increasingly worried about the new rubber listing, and the confidence is frustrated. The market of natural rubber is obviously weakening.

From the perspective of downstream demand, the purchasing situation of downstream factories has improved in the near future. From the perspective of tire enterprises, data statistics show that in the third week of March, as of March 25, the starting load of all steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong Province was 78.03%, up 0.34% from the previous week, up 13.74% from the same period last year; the starting load of semi steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 73.01%, up 0.35% from the previous week, up 10.62% from the same period last year. From the perspective of automobile data, the average daily retail sales of passenger car market in the third week of March reached 46000 units, which was 5% higher than that in the third week of March 2019, and the performance was relatively good; the first three weeks of March this year were basically the same as that in 2019. However, compared with the first three weeks of January, the trend is relatively weak. The haze and sandstorm weather in North China in mid March is expected to stimulate sales growth again. However, recently, the global automobile industry chain has been affected by the “core shortage” all over the world. For example, as of the 31st, due to the lack of chips, Weilai automobile Hefei plant stopped its seven day automobile production; Tesla Model Y’s price has increased by 8000 yuan due to the “core shortage”; moreover, many automobile enterprises have also faced the shutdown since the second half of last year. Of course, some auto companies in China have started to develop chips on their own. BYD has started to develop chips since 2005. Geely, great wall, Wuling and other state-owned auto companies have also started to develop chips on their own. However, according to the prediction of market research institutions, the shortage of automotive chips will not be eased until the second half of 2021. During this period, the production of automotive enterprises will be affected, and the demand for raw rubber will also be affected.

In terms of inventory, as of March 26, the total inventory of the previous period was 175902 tons (+ 900), and the volume of futures warehouse receipts was 170920 tons (+ 300), both of which increased. As of March 21, the inventory of Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to drop slightly, but the inventory outside the zone picked up, mainly due to the slow down of delivery after the downstream took the goods the week before. Due to the low overseas production and the high operating rate of domestic tire factories, it is expected that in the short term, going to the warehouse can still be maintained.

From a policy perspective, in order to achieve the goal of stabilizing the rubber price, the Thai rubber authority has taken new measures, the most important of which is the fresh latex management project. Rubber Research Institute of Thailand cooperates with universities to develop the matching technology of latex preservation, which aims to improve the shelf life of fresh latex from 4-5 days to 1-2 months. In this way, rubber farmers do not have to rush to sell all the fresh latex at one time, so that there will not be too many goods pouring into the market, and the raw material supply of the processing plant in the low production period can be guaranteed. The Thai government will set up centralized storage tanks for latex and provide financial subsidies for rubber farmers. The goal is to withdraw more than 200000 tons of latex from the market. In addition, the Thai rubber bureau also launched a more mobile sales mechanism for cup rubber, and set a market reference standard for cigarette film, so as to help the smooth operation of the price system of various rubber types.

With regard to the future market, the business community believes that in the short term, the market has a strong worry about the new rubber market after cutting, which has a greater impact on the market. At the same time, the severe epidemic prevention situation in foreign countries, weak demand and the shutdown caused by the lack of “core” of automobile enterprises are also affected by multiple factors, such as the transmission factor of crude oil affected by more interference factors, the trend of shock, and the supporting role of natural rubber Insufficient, weak market. In the short term, we are still wary of the transmission effect of the substantial change of crude oil on natural rubber. From the middle and late of next month, we are wary of the significant impact of the new rubber on the market.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of March 30, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 10616.67 yuan / ton. The domestic DMF market has been rising steadily. The overall price trend is rising, and the focus of negotiation is high. Compared with the same period last week, the price has increased by 3.41%, and compared with the same period last month, the price has increased by 3.75%.

At present, the domestic DMF market is mainly operating at a high level, and the market price is constantly rising. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the downstream, and the transaction atmosphere is cautious. The price of methanol in the upstream is rising. Most enterprises adjust the price one after another, with the increase of 30-50 yuan / ton. The price of mainstream manufacturers, Yankuang Guohong’s methanol quotation is increased by 50 yuan / ton to 2260 yuan / ton, and Shandong Rongxin’s methanol quotation is increased by 30 yuan / ton to 2280 yuan / ton The methanol price of Xinneng Fenghuang was increased by 30 yuan / ton to 2330 yuan / ton. The rise of methanol price has formed a certain support for the cost of DMF. The current reference price of DMF is 10800-10900 yuan / ton in East China market and 11000-11200 yuan / ton in South China market.

Business agency DMF analysts believe: it is expected that DMF will maintain a stable and rising operation in the short term, and the factory will support the price and shipping mentality. (to know more about the latest market trends, please pay attention to the official account of the business community, get information on goods and grasp the price of commodities).

In recent years, the domestic ethanol market is weak, and the market performance of different regions is different. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of March 26, the domestic ethanol market price was 7212 yuan / ton, with a month on month drop of 0.35% and a year-on-year rise of 37.05%.

In terms of regional market conditions, the markets in Northeast, East China and Shandong are down, those in Henan are weak, those in South China and Guangxi are strong, those in Dongguan are weak, those in Anhui are weak, those in Sichuan are down, and those in Yunnan are stable.

From the perspective of raw materials, raw corn continued to weaken, domestic rainfall and warming weather were unfavorable for the long-term storage of tidal grain, traders and growers with limited grain storage conditions continued to produce grain, the supply of tidal grain was at a high level, coupled with the substitution of grain and the supplement of imported corn, the demand was expected to decrease, and the corn spot price continued to fall. From the perspective of demand, the demand for power in terminal chemical enterprises is insufficient, Baijiu demand is in the off-season, and the disinfection type alcohol has not recovered significantly, and the whole downstream demand is weak.

Latest price trends of ethanol market in different regions:

Region, category, price

Shandong Province: 6900-7000 yuan / ton

Shandong Province: 7500-7900 yuan / ton

In Shandong Province, ﹣ 7850-7900 yuan / ton

In southern Jiangsu Province, the average price is 7250-7300 yuan / ton

In the south of Jiangsu Province, ﹣ 7350-7450 yuan / ton

In Anhui Province, the average corn yield is about 7150-7200 yuan / ton

About 7100-7150 yuan / ton of cassava in Anhui Province

In Anhui Province, the price is about 8000-8050 yuan / ton

Henan Province ﹣ excellent grade ﹣ 7250-7300 yuan / ton, including tax

In Henan Province, ﹣ 7800-7950 yuan / ton of anhydrous ethanol including tax

Hebei Province: 7450-7500 yuan / ton

Hebei Province: 8100-8150 yuan / ton

In Heilongjiang Province, the general grade of corn alcohol is 6800-6900 yuan / ton, including tax

Jilin Province ﹣ 6650 yuan / ton of ordinary alcohol, tax included

About 8150-8300 yuan / ton of corn alcohol in Sichuan, including tax

About 7050 yuan / ton of molasses alcohol in Yunnan

About 6950 yuan / ton of cassava alcohol in Yunnan

In Guangxi, the price of honey alcohol is 7200-7300 yuan / ton

Cassava in Guangxi

Guangxi area: 7650-7800 yuan / ton of anhydrous ethanol

About 7150-7200 yuan / ton of cassava alcohol in Guangdong

About 7750-7950 yuan / ton of anhydrous cassava ethanol in Guangdong

Corn prices fluctuated. Some enterprises in Northeast China had maintenance plans in April, and they maintained low load production. However, due to weak downstream demand, poor delivery and slow destocking, ethanol analysts of business community predicted that corn ethanol would be weak in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, this week (3.22-3.26), the market of methane chloride in Shandong Province stopped falling and stabilized. As of March 26, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong Province was about 3630 yuan / ton, down 0.73% from 3656 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 1.11% from the lowest point of 3590 yuan / ton on Wednesday, and the average price of trichloromethane was about 3750 yuan / ton, down 5.86% from 3983 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, the lowest point on Wednesday 3700 yuan / ton, up 1.35%.

This week, there was little pressure on the spot inventory of methane chloride in Shandong Province. The starting load of some enterprises in Zhongyue and Dongyue was not high, and the starting load in Luxi was about 90%. The overall market supply was still moderately tight. In addition, after the price of methane chloride was lower than the previous period, the downstream procurement increased slightly, and the demand side recovered.

The cost side is intertwined. The support of liquid chlorine is stronger than that of methanol. The price of liquid chlorine rose this week, and the mainstream ex factory price of liquid chlorine for tank cars in Shandong was 1850-2000 yuan / ton. However, this week, the international crude oil fluctuated up and down at US $60, which was weak as a whole. As of the 25th, the WTI contract closed at US $58.34/barrel in May, which was negative for domestic chemicals. The price of methanol is also at a low level. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of March 26, the price of methanol was 2330 yuan / ton.

Business community methane chloride data analysts believe that, at present, the inventory pressure of methane chloride production enterprises in Shandong is not big, coupled with the slight recovery of downstream procurement and the rise of liquid chlorine, the price of methane chloride is expected to rise steadily in the later period.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of March 25, the reference average price of silicone DMC market in the mainstream areas of data monitoring was 28666 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on March 19 (reference price 29833 yuan / ton), the average price decreased by 1167 yuan / ton, or 3.91%. Compared with the price on March 1 (reference price 23666 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 5000 yuan / ton, or 21.13%.

In late March, silicone DMC experienced a cool fall after a surge

Since the beginning of March, the domestic market of silicone DMC has been rising all the way. By the middle of March, on the 16th, the quoted price of a large silicone DMC factory in Shandong broke through the 30000 yuan / ton mark, the market price almost touched the ceiling, and the quoted price of the secondary market was basically around 29500-30000 yuan / ton. With the continuous increase of production cost, the downstream pressure has increased sharply, and the profit of the terminal market has been seriously compressed. The digestibility and affordability of the downstream are limited. The hidden danger brought to the market by the rapid price inflation is obvious. The sales of high-end prices are reduced, and the quantity of orders received by the downstream is reduced. Shandong large factories quickly reduce the ex factory quotation of silicone DMC. For seven days, the ex factory price of silicone DMC of the factory is frequent On the 25th, the high-end quotation of silicone DMC in the plant was reduced from 30200 yuan / ton to 27500 yuan / ton, down 2700 yuan / ton.

At present, the price changes of silicone DMC in the market mainly come from Shandong silicone DMC manufacturers. The prices of most of the other factories are still stable around 28000-29500 yuan / ton. The market sealing still exists. Most of the factories keep limited orders, the supply continues to be tight, and the game between the raw material side and the demand side is showing for the first time. On the 25th, the factory quotation of silicone DMC market was around 27500-29500 yuan / ton, and the average price was 28666 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on the 19th of last weekend, the average price decreased by 1167 yuan / ton, or 3.91%; compared with the price on the 1st of the month, the average price increased by 5000 yuan / ton, or 21.13%.

The game between supply and demand is emerging, and the market will remain high in the short term

At present, the silicone DMC market seems calm on the surface, but in fact, it is turbulent. The rush in the early stage has brought substantial cost pressure to the downstream. At present, the downstream market is slowing down and the wait-and-see situation is aggravating. However, the low spot inventory of the silicone DMC factory and limited orders still support the high and stable offer of the factory. The supply and demand game of silicone DMC has begun to emerge, according to the data analysts of the business society, According to the current market trend, the right to speak still focuses on the raw material side, so the future market of silicone DMC will be able to maintain high and stable operation.