Zinc price trend

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the price of zinc fluctuated and adjusted in March, and the price of zinc market rose weakly. As of March 24, the average price of zinc was 21843.33 yuan / ton, up 1.10% from 21606.67 yuan / ton on March 1.

Domestic zinc Market

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, from January to February 2021, China’s zinc ingot production reached 1.075 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. From January to February, China’s imports of refined zinc increased 60% year on year to 87345 tons. The domestic zinc ingot supply increased and the zinc market was short.

The Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region has issued the double control target task of energy consumption in 2021, and determined the target task of reducing the energy consumption per unit of GDP by 3% and controlling the energy consumption increment within 5 million tons of standard coal in 2021. The growth rate of total energy consumption was controlled at about 1.9%, and the energy consumption per unit of industrial added value (equal value) decreased by more than 4%. Increasing energy consumption control in various parts of the country has a certain impact on the production of mines and other enterprises. Some zinc mines are shut down, but compared with the overall output, the impact of shutting down production is limited.

According to the survey data at the beginning of March, in 130 galvanizing production enterprises, 51 production lines were shut down for maintenance, and the overall operating rate was 80.83%; the capacity utilization rate was 71.53%, which was 1.84% higher than last week; the weekly output was 860400 tons, which was 22100 tons higher than last week; in 47 color coating production enterprises, 9 production lines were shut down for maintenance, and the overall operating rate was 91.89%; the capacity utilization rate was 77.4%, which was 3.5% higher than last week 1%; the weekly output was 21.41 tons, an increase of 9700 tons compared with last week; the warehouse inventory of coated steel coil in the main domestic market: 1.291 million tons of galvanized steel, an increase of 38500 tons on a week-on-week basis; 269500 tons of color coating, an increase of 12800 tons on a week-on-week basis. The total inventory of coating and plating was 1.5605 million tons, an increase of 51300 tons per week. It can be seen from the statistical data that the output of the downstream industry chain of zinc city rises, the downstream operating rate rises slowly, the demand of zinc city rises, and the market of zinc city is good.

Zinc imports

According to the data released by the General Administration of customs, from January to December 2020, China’s import volume of zinc ore reached 3.707 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.1%. From January to February 2021, China’s imports of zinc ore and concentrate totaled 680100 physical tons, China’s imports of zinc ingots totaled 88200 metal tons from January to February, and China’s imports of unwrought zinc alloy totaled 10500 tons from January to February. In 2020, the import volume of domestic zinc ore will increase greatly, and the supply of zinc market will be sufficient. However, the import volume of zinc market will be stable from January to February in 21. The supply of zinc in the city is generally sufficient.

Zinc processing fee

Due to the shortage of mine supply, the processing fee paid by the miner to the smelter for refining zinc decreased from $300 / t a year ago to $200 / T in 2021. China’s domestic zinc concentrate processing fee fell to 3600-4200 yuan / ton in March, the lowest level since September 2018, far lower than 6500 yuan / ton in early 2020. Lower processing fee may force zinc smelters to cut production. The output of zinc smelters decreased, the supply of zinc market decreased, and the market of zinc market rose.

Analysis summary and Prospect

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at business news agency, said: Recently, affected by the epidemic, the EU’s economic recovery has been frustrated, the nonferrous plate is under pressure, and the zinc market is weakening. However, in the long run, the strengthening of energy consumption control in China limits the increase of zinc market output to a certain extent. The low zinc concentrate processing fees also hit the enthusiasm of zinc smelting enterprises. The probability of output decline in the future of zinc market increases. The increase of imported zinc alleviates the decrease of domestic zinc market supply, and the supply of zinc market is generally sufficient. However, the downstream of zinc industry chain started to rise, the demand for zinc ingots slowly recovered, and the future supply of zinc market is still tight. Zinc price is expected to rise slightly in the future, zinc market is cautiously optimistic.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the acetic anhydride market continued to rise in the first ten days of March. After the middle of March, the acetic anhydride price stabilized and fell slightly. As of March 23, the price of acetic anhydride was 9466.67 yuan / ton, up 1.79% from 9300.00 yuan / ton on March 1, and down 0.87% from 9550.00 yuan / ton on March 10. Since the middle of March, the market of acetic anhydride has not been strong, and the price of acetic anhydride has dropped slightly.

Acetic acid price trend

From the price trend chart of acetic acid, we can see that the support for the rise of acetic acid price still exists in early March, and the price of acetic acid rises. With the resumption of domestic acetic acid equipment, the supply of domestic acetic acid raw materials increases, and the price of acetic acid falls down. Since March 14, the price of acetic acid continues to decline, and the price of acetic acid declines. The cost support of acetic anhydride is no longer available, and the downward pressure of acetic acid price increases.

Methanol price trend

From the methanol price trend chart, we can see that in March, the methanol price rose first and then fell. In the first ten days, the methanol price rose steadily, and the cost of acetic anhydride increased. After the middle ten days, the methanol price fluctuated and fell, the cost of acetic anhydride decreased, and the support of acetic anhydride rise weakened, and the downward pressure increased. As the spring overhaul is approaching, the overhaul plans of methanol enterprises are coming out one after another; some downstream units are recovering one after another, the demand for methanol is rising slowly, the downward pressure of methanol is small, the methanol market is mainly adjusted in the future, and the support of acetic anhydride cost is insufficient.

Market summary and future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, acetic anhydride data analyst of business news agency, believes that since mid March, the prices of acetic acid and methanol have continued to fall, the cost of acetic anhydride has decreased, the support for the rise of acetic anhydride is insufficient, and the downward pressure has increased. Due to the small decline of acetic acid and methanol, the decline of acetic anhydride cost is limited, and the decline space of acetic anhydride is insufficient. In order to digest the high price of acetic anhydride in the early stage, the factory price of acetic anhydride manufacturers is basically stable, but the actual transaction price has a small negative drop. On the whole, the cost of acetic anhydride is not supported, and the downstream customers are more resistant to the high price of acetic anhydride. It is inevitable that the price of acetic anhydride will decline in the future. However, due to the high cost of acetic anhydride, the decline space of acetic anhydride is limited, and it is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will fluctuate slightly in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the business news agency’s block list data, the price of mixed xylene continued to decline this week. On March 14, the price of mixed xylene was 5750 yuan / ton; on this Sunday (March 21), the price was 5530 yuan / ton, down 220 yuan / ton or 3.83% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, Sinopec’s mixed xylene price adjustment range is – 500 / 0 (yuan / ton). Xylene inventory of ports in East China decreased this week, while that of ports in South China rose slightly. Weak downstream demand, coupled with the collapse of crude oil, the market mentality is empty, mixed xylene fell in shock. In terms of external market, as of March 19, the price of South Korea’s imported mixed xylene was 710 US dollars / ton, down 43 US dollars / ton or 5.71% on March 12, and the reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 727 US dollars / ton, down 44 US dollars / ton or 5.71% on March 12.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil plummeted this week, which flattened the previous gains. International oil prices have plummeted under the pressure of multiple bad news such as the continuous growth of US crude oil stocks for four weeks, the tightening of blockade measures caused by a new wave of epidemic in Europe, the blocked vaccination, the stronger US dollar exchange rate and the soaring US debt yield. On March 12, Brent fell $5.565/barrel, or 8.03%; WTI fell $4.2/barrel, or 6.4%

Downstream, PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price this week is more stable than last week, the price is 6700 yuan / ton, up 42.55% over the beginning of the year, up 21.82% year on year. The domestic supply of p-xylene is general, but there are many overhauls of overseas units, and the domestic price trend of p-xylene remains high. The recent trend of international crude oil prices fluctuated, but the PX price did not change much. As of the 19th, the closing prices in Asia were 778-780 US dollars / ton, FOB South Korea and 796-798 US dollars / ton, CFR China.

In terms of PTA market, the price of PTA in East China fluctuated this week and rose slightly. The price was 4497.73 yuan / ton on March 14 and 4507.27 yuan / ton on March 21, up 0.21% from last week and 28.38% from the same period last year. PTA plant centralized maintenance to ease the supply pressure, and the downstream polyester inventory pressure is not big, the contradiction between market supply and demand has eased.

In terms of ox market, the price of ox this week was flat compared with last week. On Sunday, the price of ox in East China was 6200 yuan / ton, up 34.78% compared with the same period last year. The results show that the supply of o-benzene is sufficient, the external quotation fluctuates and falls; the cost side weakens and falls; the downstream quotation weakens and falls, and the demand is just demand-oriented. O-benzene transaction enthusiasm is general, o-benzene market is weak and temporarily stable.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts from business society chemical branch think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

Multiple negative pressure, crude oil fell, xylene mixed cost support weakened; weak follow-up of downstream demand, rigid demand dominated. It is expected that the price of mixed xylene will still drop in the short term. We will continue to pay attention to the trend of international crude oil, the arrival volume of mixed xylene, the dynamic of domestic enterprises and the impact of downstream demand changes on the price of mixed xylene.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, aniline continued to rise this week, and the price reached a new high. On March 12, the price of aniline was 12300-12500 yuan / ton in Shandong and 12300-12500 yuan / ton in Nanjing. On March 21, the price of aniline was 14000-15500 yuan / ton in Shandong and 13500 yuan / ton in Nanjing, with an average price increase of 15.9% over last week, 81.43% over the beginning of the year and 139.55% over the same period of last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, the current and futures prices of styrene, the main downstream of pure benzene, fell sharply this week, and the profit space was greatly compressed. Pure benzene was driven down by bad news. Crude oil plummeted on Thursday, which was bad for domestic bulk commodity market. Pure benzene, as the downstream of crude oil, was greatly affected by crude oil, and the focus of spot market weakened. This week, pure benzene port inventory continued to fall, in the de inventory channel, inventory pressure is small, limiting its decline. This week, the price of some SINOPEC enterprises in North China was lowered to 6500 yuan / ton, while that in other regions was basically 6650 yuan / ton. On Sunday (March 21), the price of pure benzene ranged from 6003 to 6650 yuan / ton (average price was 6450 yuan / ton), which was 3.3% lower than that of last week and 67.97% higher than that of the same period last year.

The price of nitric acid rose at the beginning of this week and then stabilized. On Friday (March 19), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 2050 yuan / ton, up 3.36% from last week, 2.5% from the beginning of this month and 32.26% from the same period last year.

The price difference between aniline and pure benzene widened, and the profit margin of aniline was better. The 200000 t / a aniline plant in Dongying, Jinling was shut down for maintenance. The supply of aniline in Shandong was tight, and the price rose in the week. Enterprises in East China are mainly engaged in the preparation of shipping goods, with less spot delivery. In addition, driven by the high price of aniline in Shandong, the price rose within the week.

3、 Future expectation

In terms of cost, the current downstream styrene market is the main reason restricting the trend of pure benzene. It is expected that the short-term pure benzene will follow the shock finishing of styrene, and there will be a slight decline. However, due to the impending overhaul of several pure benzene units, the low inventory of Sinopec pure benzene and the high price support, the pure benzene market still has a rebound momentum. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market, domestic and foreign pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, the impact of external market trends on the price of pure benzene.

The lower reaches have strong resistance to high price aniline. I heard that some downstream factories have parking plans, or the demand for aniline has decreased. But at present, Jinling Dongying aniline plant is still under maintenance, and the spot supply is tight. Overall, it is expected that the high price of aniline will remain strong in the short term. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw material, the follow-up of downstream demand and the dynamic of aniline plant.

The market of ethylene oxide has been stable recently, and the estimated profit is about 310 yuan. The upstream ethylene market is stable, the price of Sinopec is reduced to 8300 yuan / ton, and Luxi Chemical is reduced to 7700 yuan / ton. The price of raw materials is still at a high level, and the cost support is strong at present. The downstream market of ethylene oxide is better than the single market, and the delivery of goods is relatively smooth. At present, due to the influence of the early stage stock market, the transaction volume of the monomer is reduced, and the terminal consumes the stock of raw materials in the early stage, which is more inconsistent with the current monomer price. Therefore, the manufacturer has no intention to adjust the current quotation for the time being. In addition, the terminal operating rate rises slowly, which has an impact on the monomer consumption There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. Ethylene glycol was affected by the weakness of chemical fiber production and marketing, with low volatility and many negative factors in the market. The manufacturer slightly reduced the load of ethylene glycol, but the impact on the fundamentals of ethylene oxide was limited.

In terms of units, in order to avoid the commissioning time of satellite petrochemical, Zhenhai Yangzi and Sanjiang units delayed maintenance. Maoming Petrochemical plans to overhaul on the 25th. At present, the epoxy supply side is relatively abundant.

Market participants are stable at present, but it is expected that there will be a downward trend in the long term.