1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of PS (GPPS 525) was 10700 yuan / ton on March 1 at the beginning of this week, and 10866 yuan / ton on March 5 at the end of this week, an increase of 1.56%, up 19.41% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Styrene futures shock lower impact, strong market risk aversion, low interest in downstream inquiries. Profit plate continued to reduce prices and shipping, driving the market center to continue to move down, the transaction situation was general.

PS part of the ex factory price rise, driving some brands to move up the center of gravity, but the deal was weak. There is a certain pressure on PS inventory on the supply side, but the parking of Zhanjiang new Sino US PS plant and the parking of some PS production lines of CITIC Guoan can offset the increment of one production line restarted by Lvan Qingfeng. Due to the large cost pressure and the general resumption of work, the purchase volume of small and medium-sized downstream enterprises is small, and it is difficult to increase the volume of transactions on the floor most of the time.

3、 Future forecast

At present, workers are returning to work in early March, and the demand of small and medium-sized downstream is expected to gradually recover. Due to the large price difference between PS raw materials and recycled materials in northern China, or the impact of PS raw materials on the demand for recycled materials, it is estimated that the benzene permeability in East China market will be 10300-14000 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

The domestic propylene (Shandong) market held steady at the beginning of the week and fell at the end of the week, according to the data of the business club’s block list. At the beginning of the week, the weekly high price was 8544 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week, the weekly low price was 8373 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 2.00%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business society, affected by the upstream and downstream, the propylene price rose again and again in the second half of February, which was at a high level for many years. It remained stable at the end of the month and the beginning of the month. The price fell on the 4th. Today, the price continued to decline significantly, dropping by 100-200 yuan / ton. At present, the market transaction is between 8200-8600 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 8200-8300 yuan / ton. The impact of low temperature still exists in the United States and the capacity recovery is general; the impact of propylene in Japan is reduced and the capacity recovery is slight.

It is reported that OPEC + may extend the production reduction, and the crude oil price rose sharply on March 4, which has certain support for the cost of propylene.

This week, the price of PP rose steadily after the decline, with a weekly decline of 0.35% and a weekly amplitude of 1.06%. The futures market is general, with limited impact on C.

The price of acrylic acid continued to rise this week, with a weekly increase of 3.85%, which had a certain positive impact on propylene.

Propylene oxide market rose slightly in the second half of this week, with a weekly increase of 0.71%, which had little impact on propylene.

Epichlorohydrin market rose significantly at the beginning of this week and then stabilized, with a weekly increase of 3.54%, which has a certain pulling effect on propylene.

This week, the domestic n-butanol price plummeted, with a weekly decline of 5.29%, which significantly suppressed the propylene market.

Octanol trend this week fell at the end of the week, with a weekly decline of 3.52% and a weekly amplitude of 3.92%, which had a negative impact on propylene to a certain extent.

Isopropanol prices had a slight downward trend this week, with a weekly decline of 0.69%, which had a slight negative impact on propylene.

The phenol Market in East China was stable after rising this week, with a weekly increase of 1.16%, which had a slightly positive impact on propylene.

The acetone market in East China was stable this week, with little impact on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

The propylene analyst of Shangshe chemical branch thinks: on the whole, the international production has recovered slightly, the domestic inventory is not much, the crude oil price has gone up sharply, the downstream operating rate is acceptable, and the effect of pulling up is not obvious, and the propylene has reached a high level recently, so it is expected that the propylene market will stop falling and pick up in the future.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of March 4, the average factory price of butanone in the domestic market was 8500 yuan / ton, which was 266 yuan / ton lower than that on March 1 (8766 yuan / ton), a decrease of 3.04%. Compared with the price on February 1 (reference average price of butanone 7116 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 1480 yuan / ton, or 20.84%.

Butanone market rose sharply in February, with a monthly increase of nearly 18%

After the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic butanone market rose sharply. After the festival, the domestic downstream demand for butanone recovered slowly. The sharp rise in price was mainly due to the support of traders’ transactions and the increase in export orders. The inventory of butanone was low after the festival, and the price was all the way after the festival. On February 28, the average factory price of butanone in China was 8400 yuan / ton, which was the same as that in the butanone market before the festival Compared with the reference price of 7100 yuan / ton, the price increased by nearly 18%.

According to the business news agency, the following is the reference price of butanone in some parts of China in February

Product growth rate: from February 11 to February 28

Butanone ﹥ 7000 yuan / T ﹥ 8400 yuan / T + 1400 18%

Butanone ﹣ 7200 yuan / ton ﹣ 8800 yuan / ton + 1600 20%

Butanone demand is in a state of fatigue

On March 1 and 2, the market of butanone in Shandong continued to maintain a strong upward trend. The actual turnover of the market was general, the support of export was still good, and the overall inventory pressure of the factory was small. However, the domestic downstream factories’ order volume was extremely low, and the demand was mainly used as soon as they were purchased. In addition, in terms of raw materials, the price of C4 after ether dropped slightly, and the cost support for butanone was loose. On March 3 and 4, butanone’s demand dropped The ketone market was weak, and the factory offer price was lowered continuously. The daily adjustment range was around 100-200 yuan / ton. The transaction was still low, and the trading atmosphere was relatively cold. As of the 4th, the reference average price of domestic butanone ex factory price was 8500 yuan / ton, which was 266 yuan / ton lower than the price on the 1st of this month, a decrease of 3.04%.

Weak support point, short-term butanone market remains downside risk

At present, the downstream demand for butanone has not been significantly improved. Domestic traders are more cautious in goods preparation. In the future, if the international butanone plant resumes operation, the export of butanone will decrease. In the short term, the effective support point of butanone trend is slightly weak. Therefore, the butanone data analysts of the business community believe that the domestic butanone market in the near future will remain stable Save downside risk, specific market also need to pay more attention to changes in demand for downstream raw materials.

Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic PA66 market continued to rise rapidly in early March, and the spot prices of various brands continued to rise significantly. As of March 3, the average offer price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding grade sample enterprises was about 38100 yuan / ton, some of which were flat with the historical high, and the rising atmosphere in the market remained.

Cause analysis

There is no improvement in the pattern of tight supply of raw materials. The impact of crude oil, chemical and other enterprises shutdown caused by the cold disaster in the United States and the earthquake in Japan is still in the process. PA66 and its industrial chain related products are seriously affected by force majeure, and the global production capacity of adiponitrile and hexanediamine continues to be low. The operation rate of adipic acid also declined, and the market supply was relatively tight. Some East China dealers reflected that they could not get the supply. At present, the inventory pressure of manufacturers is not big. Thanks to the centralized replenishment after the year, the pressure on the supply side has been released, and the prices of manufacturers have been rising frequently.

The upstream trend is strong, and China’s dependence on imported adiponitrile is relatively high. The current market price range of PA66 has been flat with the historical high. PA66 products such as Pingdingshan Shenma and Huafeng Group, which are big domestic manufacturers, have stopped quotation, mainly completed the early orders, and there is no pressure on inventory. The prices on the floor continued to rise, the dealers were reluctant to sell, and the operation was cautious. Downstream demand is dominated by rigid demand procurement, and the shortage of non major customer factories may be even worse. Spot spot spot less, lead time growth, rising atmosphere is still strong

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that: the current domestic market of PA66 continues to rise sharply, and the prices of polymerization plants and carriers continue to rise. The price of upstream hexanediamine and adipic acid is high, and PA66 has strong cost support. The resumption of work in the lower reaches started relatively fast, and the passive follow-up of taking goods resulted in the recovery of demand in some industries. At present, the cost pressure of PA66 makes the price of PA66 remain high, and the rising atmosphere fills the market. In the short term, PA66 market guidance is clear, or will continue to be strong upward.

The market of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rose in February. According to the monitoring of the business society, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was 11360 yuan / ton at the beginning of February, and rose to 13060 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an overall increase of 14.96% at the end of the month compared with the beginning of the month. In February, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber manufacturers increased for many times, and the market price rose rapidly.

In February, the demand for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was general. During the Spring Festival, the operating rate of downstream tire factories dropped sharply, which was basically within 30% of the festival. After the festival, the operating rate rose slowly. Some manufacturers began to work gradually after January 16 to increase the load, and the overall purchasing of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was weak.

The overall supply of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in February is not loose, and the supply is expected to decline in the later period. According to the business news agency, the Shunding unit of Sichuan Petrochemical Company was temporarily shut down for maintenance in February, and the Shunding units of Qilu, Maoming, Daqing and Dushanzi were normally started. In the later March, the Shunding units of Yanshan and Maoming had a shutdown and maintenance plan, and the overall supply side was expected to be tight, forming a support for the Shunding rubber.

In February, the price of butadiene, the raw material of cis-1,4-polybutadiene, rose sharply, and the cost side was more supportive of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of butadiene was 6056 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 8235 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an overall increase of 35.98%.

Future forecast: business community analysts believe that the overall synthetic rubber industry chain rose sharply in February, the current international crude oil price adjustment at the end of the month, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber may face a small adjustment in the short term. Later, with the increase of downstream operation rate, the demand side will support cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. In addition, the supply side is expected to be tight. It is expected that cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will continue to dominate after the adjustment.