According to the data monitoring of business society, as of May 7, the reference average price of 30% of the mainstream areas of phosphate ore in China is around 500 yuan / T, and the average price is increased by 20 yuan / ton, or 4.17% compared with the price on May 1, and 54 yuan / ton, or 11.94% higher than that of April 1 (the average price of phosphate reference is 446 yuan / ton).

At the beginning of 2021, the recovery of domestic phosphate ore market was slow. After entering spring, the recovery of phosphate rock market entered a stable mode. After the general increase of domestic phosphate rock price in March, it entered April, and the price of phosphate rock in Guizhou, Guangxi, Yunnan and other places increased twice in succession, and the overall trading atmosphere of the mine site returned to a clear temperature.

After the supply shortage, the price of phosphate rock in Guizhou Province is close to the high end again

After the labor Festival, on June, some mining enterprises in Guizhou province raised the factory price of phosphate ore again, up 10-60 yuan / ton. The reason for the price increase is mainly due to the low inventory of mining enterprises in Guizhou, tight market supply, high price operation of mining enterprises, and the market transaction closing to high-end price successively, after adjustment, The basic quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore market in Guizhou Province is 410-470 yuan / ton, the price of high-end car plate rises to 480 yuan / T, the half price of 28% high-end phosphorous ore car plate rises to 420 yuan / T, and the price of 22% grade phosphate ore in Kaiyang area is 250 yuan / ton. After the festival, the market of phosphate rock in other areas is basically stable. Yunnan Province: 28% of the price of ammonium phosphate car plate is around 280-290 yuan / ton; Hubei: the price of 30% grade phosphate ore shipboard is 440-460 yuan / ton.

In the downstream Yellow Phosphorus aspect, the domestic yellow phosphorus market price rose in April. Due to environmental factors, Yunnan factory parking, yellow phosphorus spot is more tense. In mid April, the downstream of May 1st Labor Day began to prepare goods, and the price of yellow phosphorus rose rapidly, and the new single price gradually increased. Entering the high price arrangement in the late ten days, the pre festival market mainly focused on the supply of pre-season orders, and some enterprises have not quoted foreign prices and suspended receipt of documents. After the labor Festival, the domestic yellow phosphorus market continued to run at a high level after the labor Festival. The mainstream quotation of Yunnan yellow phosphorus was about 17600-17800 yuan / ton; The main quotation in Sichuan is about 17700 yuan / ton; The main quotation in Guizhou is about 17800 yuan / ton.

The operation of high-level finishing in short-term phosphorus ore market

At present, after the price of phosphate ore market in Guizhou Province has closed to a high level, it is heard that Hubei mining enterprises also intend to increase the quotation recently, but at present, the downstream has a wait-and-see attitude towards high quotation. Therefore, it is still to be seen whether the market of phosphorus ore can continue to rise. The analysts of phosphorus ore in business society recognize that the power of maintaining high-level operation of phosphorus ore market in the short term is sufficient.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of caustic soda was mainly weak. The average price of Shandong market was about 490 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 457.5 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a price drop of 6.63% and 6.15% compared with the same period last year. On May 6, the commodity index of caustic soda was 65.83, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 68.18% compared with 206.87 (2017-11-14), the highest point in the cycle, and increased by 1.11% compared with 65.11, the lowest point on October 9, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

2、 Market analysis

In April, the price of caustic soda was weak as a whole. The price of caustic soda in Shandong is weak, and the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 390-490 yuan / ton. The company’s shipment is tepid, the downstream receiving situation is light and stable, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. It is expected that caustic soda will continue to operate with small fluctuation in the future. In Hebei area, the market of caustic soda fluctuates mainly in a narrow range. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 460-590 yuan / ton. The company’s shipment is general, and the downstream receiving situation is light and stable, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that caustic soda will continue to operate with small fluctuation in the future.

Upstream: the price of domestic liquid chlorine market is down this month, the market trend is weak, and the wait-and-see mentality is strong. Downstream: from the downstream of caustic soda to the end of demand, aluminum, paper and other industries adhere to demand-based procurement, wait-and-see attitude is still strong. The price of caustic soda lacks strong support, and the price of caustic soda is weak.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in April 2021, there were 2 kinds of commodities rising, 2 kinds of commodities falling, and 1 kind of commodities with zero rise and fall in the price list of chlor alkali industry. The main commodities rising were calcium carbide (8.33%) and PVC (3.17%); The main commodities falling were hydrochloric acid (- 6.85%) and caustic soda (- 6.63%). The average rise and fall this month was – 0.4%.

Business analysts believe that recently, the price of upstream liquid chlorine has declined, and now the shipment of caustic soda enterprises is tepid, and the situation of downstream reception is weak and stable, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. The actual transaction atmosphere is light, and it is expected that caustic soda will still fluctuate slightly in the future, depending on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the overall price of toluene rose slightly this week. On April 25, the price of toluene was 5671 yuan / ton; The price on Friday (April 30) was 5697 yuan / ton, up 26 yuan / ton or 0.46% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

Toluene inventories at ports in East China fell this week. The downstream news is weak, just need to buy before the festival, and the negotiation is weak. In terms of external market, as of April 30, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was 725 US dollars / ton, up 10 US dollars / ton, or 1.4%, from April 23; The price of imported toluene in East China was 725 US dollars / ton, up 10 US dollars / ton, or 1.4%, from April 23.

In terms of crude oil, good news: within the week, OPEC + decided to maintain the policy of gradually increasing production, and the energy demand in Europe and the United States improved to support the market. Bad news: the epidemic situation in India is severe, and the recovery of crude oil demand is full of uncertainty. On April 23, Brent rose $1.46/barrel, or 2.23%; WTI rose $1.34 per barrel, or 2.16%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, East China’s TDI fell slightly this week, with domestic goods at 15666.67 yuan / ton, down 0.63% from last week and up 57.72% from the same period last year. In the domestic market consolidation operation, the operators hold a wait-and-see attitude, the atmosphere in the market is weak, the downstream demand follow-up is general, and the enthusiasm to enter the market is not high.

In the PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price remained stable this week, at 6400 yuan / ton, up 60% year on year. The operation of p-xylene units in North and East China is stable as a whole. The on-site operation rate is more than 90%. The on-site supply is normal and the goods are in good condition. The on-site operation rate is about 50% in Northwest China and more than 50% in South China. As of April 29, the closing prices in Asia were US $858-860 / T FOB Korea and US $876-878 / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

Crude oil is expected to run stronger, supporting toluene prices; It is difficult for downstream products to provide demand support, and some downstream devices have maintenance plans. Overall, the trend of toluene is expected to be weak after the festival. We will continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil and gasoline blending price trend, toluene plant maintenance trends, toluene’s late arrival in Hong Kong and downstream demand changes on toluene price.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, aniline was running stably within the week. On April 25, the price of aniline in Shandong was 10600-10800 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 11000 yuan / ton. On April 30, the price of aniline in Shandong was 10600-10800 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 11000 yuan / ton. The average price was the same as last week, up 35.86% from the beginning of the year and 123.61% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, in the first half of this week, pure benzene followed the trend of styrene, rose first and then fell, the delivery price of styrene at the end of the month rose, and pure benzene followed the trend; After the fall of demand, the market center of pure benzene weakened. In the second half of the week, due to the preparation of pure benzene before the festival and the active downstream procurement, the inventory of some enterprises continued to decline and the market price strengthened. This week, Sinopec’s listing price increased by 100 yuan / ton to 7400 yuan / ton, with strong bottom support and strong market mentality. On Friday (April 30), the price of pure benzene was 7350-7500 yuan / ton (the average price was 7410 yuan / ton), which was 130 yuan / ton higher than last week, or 1.79%; It was 145.36% higher than that of the same period last year.

The price of nitric acid this week was flat compared with last week. On Friday (April 30), the price of nitric acid production in East China was 2300 yuan / ton, up 12.2% compared with the beginning of the month and 56.82% compared with the same period last year.

The price of aniline was very high in this week. On the demand side, the downstream procurement before this week’s festival supported the price of aniline; In terms of devices, Dongying Huatai and Jiangsu Yangnong devices are restarted, and the on-site supply is expected to increase; In terms of cost, the price of pure benzene rose continuously, and the bidding price of enterprises rose, which was good for aniline.

3、 Future expectation

In terms of cost and supply, the pure benzene market is expected to remain tight in May. In terms of inventory, the arrival of goods at the end of the month was concentrated, and the main port inventory in East China began to accumulate, but the increment was not high. In terms of external market, Europe and the United States will maintain supply tension in the short term, with strong external support. Overall, it is expected to maintain a strong trend in May. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market (mainly styrene inventory, demand changes), domestic and foreign pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, external market trends on the price of pure benzene.

Dongying Huatai and Jiangsu Yangnong plants restart, and the market supply is expected to increase. However, Shanxi Tianji and Nanjing chemical plants have maintenance plans in May, which are expected to offset the negative effect brought by increased supply. Cost side is expected to maintain a strong trend, supporting aniline prices. Downstream demand reduction or drag aniline Market. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw materials, the follow-up of downstream demand and the impact of aniline plant dynamics on aniline price.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the price of caprolactam in China has risen recently. The average ex factory price of caprolactam was 13266 yuan / ton on April 26, and 13233 yuan / ton on April 30. The price dropped by 0.25% this week.

2、 Market analysis

As of April 30, the price of caprolactam liquid in Nanjing Dongfang was 14100 yuan / ton, the 400000 ton / year unit was in normal operation, and the caprolactam unit was in normal operation. Sinopec caprolactam liquid price is 13900 yuan / ton. Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid price 13900 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year, the normal operation of the device, acceptance delivery. The price of caprolactam liquid in Baling Petrochemical Company is 13900 yuan / T. The 300000 t / a unit is normally started and delivered by acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid in Shandong Luxi Chemical Industry is 12800 yuan / T, the production capacity of the factory is 300000 tons, and the plant is in normal production.

The price of raw material pure benzene continued to rise this week. The price at the beginning of the week is 7280 yuan / ton. The price of pure benzene rose as the price of downstream styrene rose. The price of pure benzene continued to strengthen and rose to 7330 yuan / ton at the weekend.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts of business news agency believe that at present, due to the strong support of rising costs and insufficient follow-up of downstream demand, caprolactam profits have decreased and the price has begun to fluctuate slightly. It is expected that in the short term, it is difficult for the price to fluctuate significantly, and the market is mainly volatile. Focus on cost and demand changes.